TTP Jumps Notes: 13/01/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

NONE.

No qualifiers are top 3 HRB from what I can see.

All on the speed ratings…

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

1.20 H – Capsis Des Bois- UP (awful run) 8/1>5/1

2.20 H – Eaton Rock 14,30 2nd 20/1>12/1 (15pR4)

3.10 S – Beeno

Top 3 

2.40 S – Inchcolm

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

HUNTINGDON

1.20

Barkis (all hncps) 14,30 UP

Capsis Des Bois (all hncps+hncp hurdle+micro age+hncp debut) UP

Walkami (all hncps) UP (halved in price, ran shocker)

Peppay Le Pugh (hncp hurdle)

Cheque En Blanc (micro class)14,30 UP (4th..halved in price,ran well) 

 

2.20

Wait A Second (all hncps) Fell

Eaton Rock (micro class)14,30 2nd 20/1>12/1 (15pR4)

 

SEDGEFIELD (abandoned)

2.10

Politbureau (micro class)

Rhythm of Sound (micro class)

2.40

Inchcolm (hncp chase)

3.10

Beeno (all hncps)

3.40

Charin’s Cross (NHF) (no speed rating)

 

***

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

A shame to lose Sedgefield, given we’d have had at least two winners! 🙂 Anyway… nothing at monster odds is jumping out at me that IS NOT a ratinsg pointer horse.. Cheque En Blanc was worth a glance but with that type I would want to see some market support, given he hasn’t done anything in maiden/novice hurdles etc. Symonds is 0/8,1p with handicap hurdle debutants last 2 years, and if that figure was a bit more encouraging I would be more interested. He also isn’t moving up/down in trip, which would be another reason for improvement. We shall see. Unexposed so no shock winner if a plot. But I would have though the market would guide. Trainer is in form (those indicators updated since yesterday when his went well also) but I will take my medicine with him. Jonjos in the same race hasn’t done anything and I can’t see an obvious reason for improvement, unless they have done something during the break. Again, I would want to see some market support I think. I won’t be shocked if Wait A Second wins the 2.20 as he ran ok LTO, but is ‘only’ 5s or so and I have the ratings pointer horse onside and he will do. He has stamina to prove but has won after a long break before,so we shall see.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Something to read…

January’s trainer research article, links to old articles, and..wait for it… some notes on Royal Ascot (blame John ‘Fallon’, not me :)) (that is meant in good humour,come June we may all be thankful for that comment,with any luck!) 

You can flick through that lot HERE>>> (if you like your trainer micros etc, hopefully you enjoy the read)

 

Results: You can find the ‘ratings pointers’ results up to last Sunday HERE>>> 

Hopefully they give you confidence moving forward,if at any point you find it lacking 🙂

 

NEW WELCOME NOTE/INFORMATION

I have re-written the ‘welcome note’ you should have received when joining the Members Club. If you require any further information on the content of the Members Club, and these daily posts, hopefully it helps. I have tried to keep ‘to the point’, which is a quality I can lack sometimes! Hopefully you find it useful…

READ THIS WELCOME NOTE HERE>>>

***

That is all for today,

Josh

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • josh. thank you for spending your time on the all weather/royal ascot angles. which I found interesting. However your right to say. we should not think too much about royal ascot. at the moment.until the time comes
    john(fallon)

    fallon 12/01/17 6:33 PM Reply


    • No problem John, I am happy to serve and don’t mind dipping into the odd bit of research following a good suggestion etc, all part of the service, time allowing! Yep I won’t be thinking about that any more, I need to start turning my guns onto the Cheltenham handicap trends/stats research, and I need to start the Flatt TTP – best to spread that kind of research out,otherwise is scrambles the brain!
      Some interesting angles there though, esp Dundalk and AOP, follow those blind I think, then can possibly use some of the others as starting points. There will be some logic there also I suspect,albeit I haven’t thought too deeply.
      Anyway, back to the jumps for now, plenty of time for RA come June.
      Josh

      Josh 13/01/17 10:10 AM Reply


  • well done on your tactics to beat the bookies just thinking
    out loud with no research done how many of top rated
    horses prices have come in. one of todays was 4/1 and went off at 5/2
    he came 2nd just by staking 100 you would have made 36 profit
    without gambling

    finky1 12/01/17 7:13 PM Reply


    • Very small sample, but I had a quick look at this using BSP as a rough & ready lay price. Since I started on 29th December there have been 22 TR horses (might be one or two more that I didn’t bet on for some reason). Of these, 12 came in from the price I managed to get, and 10 drifted, some hugely, e.g. from 50 to 120.

      Betting £100 at the price I took the evening before or early on the morning of the race, and then laying at the BSP price, you would just about have broken even. In reality you could have done better than this, as it would be obvious that some were drifting massively and these could have been layed off long before they reached the BSP figure.

      GGs TR did better than HRB, but as I said, it’s a very small sample so I wouldn’t read too much into it.

      But given that betting £10 on each of these TR horses made a profit of £150, I wouldn’t bother with trying to trade them personally, but it might be worth watching the GGs ones in particular to see what happens in the future?

      Andrew Mackay 13/01/17 9:43 AM Reply


    • Quite a lot of Josh’s stuff go off shorter (I noted last year Tips off free page most often went off shorter) – think the way I’ll be playing them is to back bigger prices @ bfSP & tinker with trading shorter prices – I’ve started adding the TTP Ratings Pointers to one of my spreadsheets so will know more for definite in due course but I think u could be looking at an interesting angle.

      It is early days but I been doing some research using Racing Post fc fav’s – when 1 of above Rating’s Pointers is fc fav – they are so far 2/5 – the winners were non-h’caps – losers h’caps & 2 of the three losers finished shorter than fc 1 the same. I’ll be back with more l8r’s….

      silvbird 13/01/17 9:53 AM Reply


      • Thanks gents, much appreciated. I haven’t been tracking such things and in truth I won’t be,(well,no plans to as yet unless requests to do so,which I will consider) but it seems you have been doing an ok job- as I have said before I always advise keeping your own records, even more so if deviating from my recorded results of 1 point win bets- which for me is the true/only test of any approach working long term. I am quite a simpleton betting wise – and area I should develop my skills in- but I ,and i am sure others, appreciate such comments as above.

        If some of you are recording results to BFSP ( I should probably start doing that to get an indication of how much we are beating the market, by taking earlier prices) that is great and would be interesting to see how that does. I suspect for those where the price doesn’t move and that are 10/1+, BFSP may be the place to go…but of course in the morning you don’t know if that 14/1 shot may go off at 7s, 8s etc. I know the Alexander horse that won at 18s ISP last weekend, went off at 30 BFSP I believe, as an example. So, the ‘biggies’ may always be worth a check on BFSP, IF you are able to do so nearer the race. If not, I think taking earlier prices should win out over time, esp when taking account of commission etc.

        General- my free tips last year- I suspect the prices shortened as I was on a very hot run and I suspect maybe 3/4x the number of people follow them as they do now- mainly as post May I couldn’t tip a thing- BUT, i do know from recording results of free tips that I ‘smash’ BFSP, from advised prices, which in terms of a mark of getting ‘value’ is good.

        In terms of TTP- I have kept a eye on prices, albeit not a scientific one as such… as yet we certainly are not having an impact from what I can see… not at the top end – examples would be Mulholland’s two winners on Sunday, both Top rated, one double top rated from memory, both won, and both were weak at the top end, drifting if anything… 5/2, 7/2, steady. The bigger priced horses that the ratings pointers have found- 14/1, 14/1, 20/1… those all in last couple weeks I think- they haven’t moved at all really from evening/morning odds, maybe 1/2 points – and if anything they all drifted out from around 10am-1pm, those three hitting prices of 16s, 18s, and 25/8s… So, no concerns on that front yet- in terms of us affecting price…

        IF we start affecting price dramatically, to point where members cannot get on at an evening/morning price, that is beating SP long term, then we have thinking to do. But that day isn’t anywhere near from what I can see. I think it helps that betting is spread from members through evening to morning, so not all having our bets on at once. And we are generally talking recreational stakes I think (£2-10) so far.

        Anyway, all thoughts as to strategy, based on any results you are recording, are always well received. And of course if there is a clamour for me to start recording other data I will, if no one else is 🙂 (albeit I don’t want to get bogged down in such admin if I am being blunt, – and as I said, this HAS TO work to 1 point level stakes betting, at prices most can get on early evening through to 10am or so)

        Josh

        Josh 13/01/17 10:22 AM Reply


  • Sedgefield is gone heavy snow !!!!!!!

    jamie2255 13/01/17 7:09 AM Reply


  • Good morning all,

    All- weather.

    7:15 Wolv – Captain Dion he’s 4/1 general this morning 1pt win

    He’s top of my rating and also comes for the same hot race (20-12-16 13:20 Newcastle) as Rich again and Tatlic. Tatlic won first race after and Rich again won yesterday his first race after betting Tatlic who was 3rd, poyle vinnie was 3rd in his first race after (one to follow) also Outrage is one to follow from that race too, yet to run.

    Also there is an each way Gary in the free post as also spotted him for the

    1:00 ling – Presence Process 0.5 ew 18/1 with Coral, BV and Betway. (He was 25/1 last night)

    I replied to his post with my thoughts, I’m lazy so if you want to know then pop over to the free daily post 😀

    Good luck as always.

    Gav

    Gavin 13/01/17 10:31 AM Reply


    • GL Gav… I see you are up against that Ivory horse, who bolted in the last day and showed some turn of foot from the back – think the race was well run, which helped.. I note your own looks like the only front runner in the race, and as such could get away on the front end..
      Which leads to some interesting scenarios for you more advanced punters than I!… Back to lay? You would think he would be shorter than SP after 1f or so, maybe considerably…
      Also, the muggy forecast?? If he gets beat, you would think by the fav, but he may have built up a lead,and come an honourable second?
      I am just playing those out in my mind, I doubt I will put my money where my mouth is – me and the AW do not mix that well.

      Interested what you think to that? If that fav showed a genuine turn of foot the last day (suppose the ‘sectional boys’ will know that) rather than just benefited from a pace collapse/weak oppo, I see him being hard to beat,albeit a different track today.
      GL

      Josh 13/01/17 10:39 AM Reply


      • Eliaddaaf turn of foot is a worry although it looked like they went of at a fair clip and the way Eliaddaaf started the race, it play right in to his hand, I don’t know his sectional times which is a pain. I’ve got Captain Dion as a quicker horse overall. I just hope he can take control of the pace then he get first run and be able to hold on.

        I would play in the place market but no value for me there, unless he goes above evens which I can see happening.

        I’m not sure about the lay – back, something I don’t, but with his front running he may be shorter then SPs after 1f?

        Cheers

        Gvain 13/01/17 11:36 AM Reply


  • Morning all, good luck today and may all come home safe. Very quiet day today with Sedgefield off but will have a couple of groats e/w on The Jugopolist @10’ish. Won under Ben Poste over c/d and fair second to an improver last time.
    Matt

    Matthew Roberts 13/01/17 11:10 AM Reply


    • Well done Matt, didn’t do the forecast?! I was rather hoping he would stop there, but alas he didn’t! Did it well. Had to work for lead as well,and into a strong wind. So, impressive, for a mediocre race.

      Josh 13/01/17 2:31 PM Reply


      • yes I didn’t want reminding that I had £4 win on Eaton Rock and £7 win £2 place on The Jugopolist but didn’t do the forecast!!!! aaaaarrrrghhh!

        Matthew Roberts 14/01/17 2:51 AM Reply


  • Hamish McGonagain (H2, R1) priced @ 13/2….ridden by a 5lb claimer who in his last 6 rides has won 4 times, in fact his last 3 rides, all winners, trained by today’s trainer …J Gask…..worth an interest

    Norman 13/01/17 11:32 AM Reply


    • 6.15 Wolverhampton

      Norman 13/01/17 11:33 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Will Wait A Second be classed as a Ratings Pointers bet as it is
    now currently third top rated in HRB’S ratings probably because
    of non-runners ?

    stumac 13/01/17 12:43 PM Reply


    • Hi Stu,

      No it won’t be.

      It wouldn’t be fair for me to record such results given not everyone would have had a fair chance to get on.

      I have not been tracking such changes due to non runners- I don’t look at the ratings again after posting. So, I will stick to that method.

      All results are based on when I look at the ratings which is between 1-5pm the day before, depending on when they are uploaded. What happens after that will happen, but will not count officially.

      Of course, there is nothing stopping you backing him.

      Josh

      Josh 13/01/17 12:50 PM Reply


  • NEW! Members post… some stats/trends for Warwick chase, but a couple of other links (trends/stats checklist/over the shoulder video of HRB,for those of you who like such things)

    http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2017/01/13/warwick-classic-chase-statstrends/

    Josh

    Josh 13/01/17 12:51 PM Reply


  • 1.20 H Capsis Des Bois – tchd 12/s 1/2 hour pre-race backed into 6/s could’ve been layed 6.2/4ish just b4 off

    silvbird 13/01/17 1:31 PM Reply


    • Eaton Rock’s also come in a lot – BF had it at 22 this morning, now 13 to lay.

      Andy M 13/01/17 1:45 PM Reply


  • FAO any AW Geeks…..Lingfield today had 4 Handicaps all won by the top weight (race-card No 1) and some with a decent SP

    so far this year, being 2017……there has been 4 handicap winners from 12 races (race-card No 1) to show a small profit which will only have been pushed up after today’s races……last year for the whole of 2016 there was 48w /278r giving a slight loss to SP of – 5 pts and a profit of 30 pts to BF…..years 2015 and before have had losses but something appears to have occurred to give top weights an advantage in the last 12 months…..anyone an opinion ?

    Norman 13/01/17 5:47 PM Reply


    • Mmmm this looks like something to have a dig deeper in too on with HRB.

      My first thoughts are that many off them are dropping down in class maybe?

      Gavin 13/01/17 6:03 PM Reply


    • Hi Norman, sorry I’m late with reply. Just got in.
      I’ve been following that for a few years now, but more specifically in Nurseries. Up to a short while ago,,,i think it was 29 wins from 80 with top weight.
      39 from 80 top 2.
      And only 9 from outside the top 5 in weights….so there is something there. I’m sorry I can’t update it for you as I don’t have HRB or anything like that.
      I’m sure someone could check though.
      I haven’t got my figures in front of me so I may be slightly out, but it is profitable.

      BOL..

      tonymc 13/01/17 9:12 PM Reply


  • Oh well one of these it could of been days 🙂 I will be watching the replay of 7:15 a few time again, the fav Eliaddaaf was withdrawn just before the off. Fast track did the business, there was some money down for him, Captain Dion finished 3rd.

    On to tomorrow

    Gavin 13/01/17 7:30 PM Reply


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