Jan 2017 Research Article (+ Royal Ascot!)

 

Firstly…

Racing To Profit Members Club: Monthly Research Article

What follows is my monthly research article for you. At present I write a monthly article for The Betting Insiders Club (you can find out more about that here>>>)  and they kindly allow me to share this with you; albeit if I didn’t write it for them I would do it anyway.

If you enjoy your trainer angles hopefully you find what follows an interesting read. If you have HorseRaceBase or other system building software by all means do track any angles that spark your interest. And of course, you are always welcome to post any ‘qualifiers’ under the Members Posts J

Let’s get to January’s article…

CLICK HERE TO READ>>>

 

Secondly…

You can find older articles in the ‘Exclusive Reports’ section to the left, when you are logged in.

Click HERE>>> for a list/links of old articles (November’s is worth a read I think, looking at Irish racing)

 

Finally…

Royal Ascot…

Yes yes, it’s a mad time of year to be thinking about Royal Ascot- I have stopped thinking about it now. But, John, a Member, posted a comment about AW winners/runners, doing well at Royal Ascot. I spend an hour or so with my head in my HRB having a play around and there are a few angles of interest. 

I won’t think about these anymore until nearer the time- but if some of you could remind me before the Royal meeting that would be great!! 

These are very rough notes.. (that I will return to at the appropriate time) 

So, 

Royal Ascot, last 5 meetings..

 

-Those that won on the AW LTO, before coming to Royal Ascot: 3/55,0p 

-All runners on AW LTO, regardless of finishing position,before coming to RA: 4/121,16p 

So, not much there. 

Next I looked at those that ran on the AW on their race debut, first ever career start. Here it gets more interesting. 

-Dundalk on debut, came Top 3: 5/25,12p, +13 SP

-A P O’Brien/AW Debut/Finished Top 3: 5/13,11p… +25 SP (assume all Dundalk)

 

Now, general. 

Made race debut on AW/Finished Top 3…

20/1< : 20/134,54p… +37 SP

13/2 or shorter: 13/42, 25p, +20 SP

 

So, lets take those going off 20/1 or shorter, as the starting pool…

(so, race debut AW/Top 3/ 20/1< at royal ascot) 

-Running over 5-7f: 9/48, 19p = +55 SP 

-Handicaps: 10/58, 26p = +26 SP 

-1-5 Career runs: 15/77,39p = +30 SP, +54 BFSP 

-such runners as above, 13/2 or shorter: 12/31, 21p = +25 SP

-2 year olds (20/1<) : 5/20,9p = +32 SP, +43 BFSP

 

A Micro?

  • Royal Ascot, last 5 meetings
  • 20/1<
  • TOP 2 Last Time Out
  • 1st career start on AW, finished Top 3

89 bets / 19 wins / 41 places / 21% wsr / +80 SP / +117 BFSP / AE 1.66

Within that..

In handicaps… 10/36,19p = +48 SP

1-4 career runs, running over 5-7f… 12/1 or bigger SP… 6/23,6p = +77 SP, +110 BFSP

1-4 career runs, 5-7f, age 2 or 3… 11/38, 19p = +70 SP , +100 BFSP

 

Right, that’s enough for the flat. It is the middle of January after all!

 

Josh

 

 

 

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