FREE DAILY POST: 13/01/17 (complete)

 

TIPS

none. A couple of mediocre handicap chases on that day that I will leave. Both have a couple of TTP ‘ratings pointers’ horses in that I will no doubt have a go at. Our Bangor winner goes again here at Sedgefield, Cabrah. Looks like he could probably get the lead again, just whether lugging 12-5 will stop him. Looks big enough to carry it from memory but doubt he will be much of a price. Interesting how he goes though.

North Yorkshire National… ah well. I got that one wrong. I don’t mind backing Carrigdhoun at that price, that same thinking, part ‘gut’ which felt price was too big, will pick out the odd biggie every now and then. And I mean every now and then- once, twice a year if I’m lucky!

What can we (by we, I mean me!) learn..well I should take some positives… if I skip passed the write ups for my two, and ignore the fav who was a non-runner, the two next best ‘danger horses’ came 1st and 2nd. So, not too bad. What could we have done differently for that winner? Well, the main stumbling block/question, was stamina, and jumping in the context I didn’t think he would get an easy lead. Boy is he a lovely jumper when he gets his own way. I was surprised he got such an easy lead- but I suppose he just had youth on his side, and the best jockey of those on the front end actually. As soon as those tactics were employed it was evident connections had no concern over stamina. Game over. You could call him the winner a long long way out for me. So, we now know he stays! At 10s/12s, given that was the only question , he was unexposed over a trip like this, maybe an error. Smith was in form, she was a ‘January track pointer’ trainer, won the race last year, horse had course form, C3 is his level. Always seems obvious after the event! Close to picking him, but not close enough in truth. The trainer thinking alone should have seen me closer at evening odds.

Oh, and I suppose, as reflected on in comments to Tom as I pondered (when money comes for one it makes you think!) the way he has stayed over 25f/26f meant he was worthy of a shot at that trip,at his favourite course. He has just looked like a galoper. All the pieces were there, shame I didn’t have that clarity of thought at 10/12ss the evening before. Next time.

So, maybe, and I have said this before- it is asking for trouble having two old timers onside in a race that was fairly deep, and had a fair bit of youth in it. JV was right on that score. I was wrong.

Maybe there was more heart in picking those 12 year olds than I care to admit. Having 2 onside was clearly asking for trouble. They simply couldn’t go the pace. Still ran with credit.

The future… I think the top 4 are definite ones to take out. McCain’s has a staying chase in him one day, somewhere. Gonalston Cloud ran his race and bumped into one really, and he did come from much further back. He could do with a pace collapse I think, as happened at Market Rasen to an extent. But, he stays. And if is well placed has similar type events in him. ItsTimeForAPint ran better on that ground than I thought he might, albeit it was tacky.. he travelled comfortably and ran with credit. In heavy, low weight, I doubt many could live with him at C3/4 level. He has progressed from last year it seems. His turn may not be far away.

We move on, that’s done with now. Onto Warwick on Saturday.

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

NTD Unexp Chasers (18/54,28p since 2013,+66 SP, 5/9,6p 2016) (any odds)

2.20 Hunt – North And South- UP

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– LIVE TEST

2.20 Hunt – North And South- UP

 

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All Weather TTP

Me posting these on here seems to be a curse, but they have found decent priced winners this season, I promise.. (albeit I would be lying if I said I had kept a P/L tab…)

Lingfield

1.00 – Presence Process- G3

(UP,4th,very unlucky for EW backers,and even possibly win backers. Add to tracker. Got cut off in the run, game over,switched,finished well, not time to make up lost lengths. Next time maybe!)

Dundalk 

5.00 – Bubblesontherise UP 25/1

7.00 – Winter Lion – H3 WON 10/3 

8.00 – So Magical NR

Wolvs

7.45 – Chantecler

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • A good day all round,well done to Martin on that gamble,good to see Paddy booting a few home too

    gearoid180468 12/01/17 5:30 PM Reply


    • Ah yes well done with Bells and Bs, nice price, lovely paddy ride. Shame he couldn’t get the other George horse home, but couldn’t do much more. Yep and Martin with a 25/1 shot, as you do. Seems like plenty were on which is the main thing.

      Keep them coming gents!

      Josh 12/01/17 5:34 PM Reply


  • Jock Du Jour

    Looks like chelmsford is banjaxed with snow so onto tomorrow

    3.30 Lingfield Lucky Loui 1pt win 10/1

    Logic

    Jack Mitchell 17% strike rate 4yo+ at Lingfield +14.5
    3/13 riding Roger Teal 4yo+ +20.00 aw generally
    Roger Teal 15% strike rate 4yo+ +26.90
    Lucky Louie up in distance after staying on over 6f might be signifigent
    Trainer yet to strike this aw season only negative

    gearoid180468 12/01/17 6:39 PM Reply


  • Hit a couple of crossbars today but I prefer that to seeing them tailed off. Busy day tomorrow.

    Ifandbutwhynot drops in grade to his first ever class 4 handicap hurdle (31 in his 2 non-handicaps). in the 15:10 at Sedgefield. Now racing off 10lbs lower than his last win. Dickie takes the ride for the first whilst under the care of Tim Easterby (only 2 ever runs for trainer the last one almost 2 years ago). He gets a first time tongue tie. Easterby is 1/8, 5p at track over hnaidcap hurdles over the past 12 months. Whilst he hasnt had a winner for a couple of months 5 of his last 10 have hit the frame so looks like coming back into form.

    I also want to back Master Rajeem in the race before. I tipped him out 2 starts ago when he finished 2nd here over course and distance (although annoyingly didnt when he won his hurdle start NTO). He gets to run off the same chase mark here. The chase race has worked out very well with the winner winning twice more, 3rd going a close 2nd and 4th & 5th also winning. The horse is 3/9, 7p at the track so clearly loves it here. The trainer form is a little concern but in fairness she has only sent out 6 runners in the last 30 days and most havent been fancied.

    Moving on to Huntingdon I want a bet on Vinnie Lewis in the opener. Whittington has a very good record with his handicap debutants (you could have backed them blind over the last 1/2/5 years proftably). He is 1/2 over handicap hurdles at the track. The horse has come out of a Hereford which I think is going to be very good form. The winner is probably a 150+ rated horse and one of the top novices in the UK so considering Vinnie was 20 lengths behind him I think a mark of 106 after the jockey claim understimates him. The 7th from that race has also won well since.

    Finally on the AW I want to back Captain Dion. He drops back down to a class 4 having ran well in a class 3 LTO. The 2nd has since placed and the 5th and 6th have gone out and won. Trainer is in pretty good form. The horse still looks fairly unexposed. Stott back on board is another plsu given he is 2/3 on the horse.

    nickmazur 12/01/17 8:11 PM Reply


  • Fantastic work, spotting “The Doc”, Martin

    And brilliant training performance from Mr Herrington to land a gamble in a competitive conditions race

    aallen 12/01/17 9:26 PM Reply


  • Having been stuck trying to get up a hill to get home because of the snow for 2 hours the gloss of my 25/1 winner has worn off despite the balance boost to online accounts. A few for Friday, weather permitting.

    I think Hartside goes well at Sedgefield and so 12/1 in the 3.10 may be some value?

    I like Red Avenger on the Dundalk AW, 6.30. Is only 3/1 though but his sire goes well at this track. Also at Dundalk Joseph O’Brien puts up his brother Donacha on Sweetasever, 5/1 available now.

    RE an outsider, Shrubland in the 2.50 Hun may well outrun its price? 62 on Betfair Exchange but some 50/1 about with the bookmakers.

    Good luck.

    Martin Colwell 12/01/17 10:58 PM Reply


  • Spot on with Baraza today Josh well done and even I managed 2/5 for 2.5 pts profit on the day!!! Quiet day for my horses today and whilst I think Cabragh will take much higher rank than he is I feel 12.5 will anchor him today. Stewart Simpson wrote in Always Back Winners weight can’t make a horse run faster but it can slow them down! My two against him are Master Rajeem @6/1 and Inchcolm @11/2. My preference is 2pts on Inchcolm and 1.5 on Master Rajeem. Good luck to all and may all come home safe, human and equine.

    Matthew Roberts 12/01/17 11:02 PM Reply


    • Good luck Matthew. Funny you should mention that book,it’s the one I am currently readino! You may well have recommended it on my Xmas Racing Reading post. Anyway. Not many pages in but writes with a lot of clarity and all makes plenty of sense. Mainly for flat and has given me a few ideas. Maybe I should try a summer focusing on 7-100 races rather than sprint handicaps! His what I will call acceleration theory’ makes so much sense as well and not something I have ever thought about. Not even half way through as yet . Josh

      Josh 12/01/17 11:12 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    No winners today a 3rd & 2 x 4ths shame about Chelmsford being abandoned as Pleadings was backed into 4.0 and on at 8.0 but onwards to tomorrow and 2 main selections…….

    6.30 Dundalk – Red Avenger 4.0 best odds most books
    War Front 9 runs, 4 wins, 6 places 44.44% win SR, 66.67% place SR
    Staking £17.40 2% of £869.83
    Won twice already over C & D on last two outings now rated 86 but still could have a bit in hand as won off as high as 96 when trained by Ed Dunlop has travelled lovely in his two wins.

    6.45 Wolverhampton – Pivot Bridge Evs best odds
    Pivotal, 10 runs, 5 wins, 7 places 50% win SR, 70% place SR
    Staking £17.04 2% of £852.43
    Sent over from Ireland and romped in over C & D last time out going for a repeat mission off 71 and has won as high as 74 at Dundalk poor odds though..

    Others to note

    3.00 Lingfield – Potters Lady Jane 8.0 best odds Bet bright
    We have Sir Percy as a super sire over 1M 5F – 2M here this is shorter at 1M 4F but the sire has solid stats over this trip too 42 runs, 11 wins, 21 places 26.19% win SR 50% place SR

    3.30 Lingfield – Etaad 4.0 and shortening everywhere, Won the race last year and from the Moore camp looks like the money is down sire is 1,1,1 Intidab over C & D.

    7.15 Wolves – Eljaddaaf 2.62 with 5 books
    Shamardal 33 runs, 13 wins, 20 places 39.39% win SR 60.61% place SR
    Just missing out on the super list won for us at Kempton last week

    A few shorties for tomorrow not a double figure in sight but hopefully some winners

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 12/01/17 11:06 PM Reply


  • Josh/All, one that is half interesting from your AW Micro’s is 1:00 L Presence Process 25/1.

    P M Phelan/Class 6: 39 bets / 9 wins / 15 places / 23% sr / +41 SP / +64 BFSP / AE 1.66
    Trainer form is poor but most of his are at big odds. However PP is dropping to Cl6 for the first time and doing a Sire check for Ling/AW/8f the results are very encouraging! 55 Runs, 11 wins, 22 placed.
    The jockey young Paddy Bradley has a good strike rate for the Trg. The horse is as well as down in class is up in dist, 7f to 8f. He is Jt 3rd speed rated (GG) Top rated (RP) In a race with no pace.
    His one run at C&D was a class 4 against better horses. Finally he has the most experience of the track.

    Gary 13/01/17 7:14 AM Reply


    • Hey Gary,

      I thought he ran a good race Ling cl 4 1 m, like you said up against better horses. His last run he was draw out wide 13 of 14 runners, and looked like he may need a bit of cover in running. out of that race I’m follow 5 and he is one of them. Draw 3 Should get some cover and I think he should be the fastest in the last 2f, so he is the value horse in the race for me.

      Good luck

      Gav

      Gavin 13/01/17 9:58 AM Reply


      • Ahh, that’s the AW for you/the flat… not sure if would have won but got squeezed out, nowhere to go, game over, switched ride but too late by time got into stride again. Finished well enough. Definite wins in her soon at this level/more luck. One to track.

        Josh 13/01/17 1:11 PM Reply


        • Really unlucky, paddy had to put the breaks on right when he was starting to pick up, he finished well in the end from were he had to go, I knew he would run well. He will be staying in the tracker.

          Gavin 13/01/17 4:00 PM Reply


      • Well & truly baulked on run in, one for tracker

        Shek2nd

        Bill Hawksorth 13/01/17 1:13 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    I make the Dundalk race a class 6 also.

    David Parsons 13/01/17 10:42 AM Reply


    • cheers David, I thought as much. I don’t think there is a lower class than those races, anyway, not over there.

      Josh 13/01/17 10:58 AM Reply


  • Gary Moore has a fancy today, 1.20 Hun, Capsis Desbois, 8/1 about.

    Also fancy Socialites Red, 5.45 Wol and Hart Stopper, 8.15 Wol.

    These selections are additional to those I posted last night.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 13/01/17 12:38 PM Reply


    • Hope you are right about the Moore horse Martin, TTP users will be happy if he can win! Looks unsteady in the market, well, he hasn’t been backed,and isn’t drifting. A chance he could get an easy lead if he wanted it. Hopefully makes all and romps home, heres hoping anyway! GL

      Josh 13/01/17 12:52 PM Reply


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