TTP Jumps Notes: 12/01/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

3.50 Catt – Italian Riviera WON 5/2>11/4 SP 

1.05 Leic – Un Prophete  14 UP

Top 3 

3.10 Leic- Storming Strumpet  30 2nd 9/2>5/2

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

3.10 Leic- Storming Strumpet  30 2nd 9/2>5/2

Top 3 

none.

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

 

CATTERICK

1.50

Roxyfet (hncp chase) UP

2.50

Frederici (all hncps + hncp chase + micro age) UP

Straidnahanna (all hncps + hncp chase+ micros TJC/Class) 14 WON 10/1>11/2 (7.5/1 aftter R4) 

Fill The Power (all hncps + hncp chase + micro class)  14 UP

3.50

William of Orange (all hncps + micro distance) UP

Italian Riviera (all hncps) WON 5/2>11/4 SP 

 

**

LEICESTER

1.05

Un Prophete (all hncps)  14 UP

Thatchers Gold (hncp hurdle) UP

2.40

Redmond (all hncps + hncp chase)  14 UP

3.10

Storming Strumpet (all hncps) 30 2nd 

 

BONUS

(the ‘bonus stats’ at end of guide, novice handicap chases, and Ireland)

12.35 Leic – Baraza- WON 4/1

 

***

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Remember primarily these are  just my subjective views on any horses not in the ratings pointers that may be worth backing – mainly those in the 20/1+ region that do win every now and then, and that it may be nice to back from time to time! I do not over think ratings pointers horses personally and trust the approach over time.

None of the biggies today, not on the ratings pointers,lure me in – RoxyFet is one- only interesting if money comes i think, he looks out of sorts and I see no reason for a sudden upturn in form. Fill The Power is the other decent priced one- he is just lazy these days and is in fact now 0/8,0p all races beyond 26f,so he does have a stamina Q also. Happy to leave.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

My intro video below in case you missed it. I mean I am no Steven Spielberg, and it is 27 minutes long – but that will fly by in no time 🙂 (or watch it in chunks, esp if unsure on how these posts are created/best way to approach the content etc)

 

 

 

NOTE: Some of you may have seen a discussion in the comments on Wednesday about what makes up the horseracebase ratings. I can confirm, having spoken to Chris (owner of HRB) that they DO NOT include any speed ratings. I wasn’t sure exactly what they did include, but I was confident they didn’t touch on speed at all. They cover various different factors but knowing the ins and outs isn’t a necessity. The evidence is this Speed ratings + HRB ‘fusion’ approach works. And long may that continue. Albeit, in time, there may be other ratings sets that we could consider using. 

 

**

KEY:(applicable across the blog) 

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

NOTE: In the ratings pointers above, BOLD indicates a ‘double qualifier,against both ratings’ (ie Storming Strumpet) in RED is a ‘double top rated qualifier- they are a perfect 3/3 so far…) (no such qualifiers today

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

21 Comments

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  • Strumpet opened up at a ridiculous price

    nickmazur 11/01/17 5:07 PM Reply


  • hi josh, amazed that anyone should suggest changing the ratings to something else! why should you change it? +90 points in 28 days not good enough? if its not broke dont fix it comes to mind.

    pendrem 12/01/17 7:06 AM Reply


    • Hi Malcolm, well, IF you ignore recent results, and you thought HRB were speed ratings- it was a valid question, why would you use two sets of speed ratings when there could be a form rating out there that would compliment a speed rating. That is a logical suggestion. As it happens HRB doesn’t take account of speed, but does look at form,weight,ratings all sorts- i think they are quite complex in their own right.
      Anyway, they work. Or have done so far. All ideas/poking/prodding welcome in these parts. And we wont be making 90 points every 28 days, or 38 points every week- it is exciting to see what a weekly/monthly average may settle down to over time.
      Josh

      Josh 12/01/17 8:19 AM Reply


  • Thanks for all your help Josh, so pleased to be “online”. My methods give me Olivers Hill, Ballyben, Harry The Viking, Italian Riviera and A Little Magic. If the criteria I use continues to work I shall see what you think. CHEERS matt

    Matthew Roberts 12/01/17 10:51 AM Reply


    • Ahh good to see you are in, hopefully you enjoy the trial. Yep these members posts/free daily posts (feel free to post there also) also work as a forum it seems! Ideas,methods,questions,etc etc are all welcome. There are many ways to skin a cat in this game. With any luck the ‘ratings pointers’ above will give you plenty of ammo to throw at your own methods, and vice versa, over time.
      I will be happy if your methods are right about old Harry and Italian Riveria. Tipped the former on free post (albeit taking a walk in market so bracing myself) and IR qualifies above.
      GL Josh

      p. s any questions on members club/these posts, however basic, do ask or email. Quite aware to start with can be confusing but once you get to grips with content I would like to think it is straight forward enough.

      Josh 12/01/17 11:04 AM Reply


  • Good morning, For the AW weather people I’m having a little nibble on a couple today.

    14:00 Rich again (I’m playing in BF place market with this one) 2pts to place he’s 2.38 as I look now.

    20:30 Camino (This is from one of my AW systems which looks at, running first time for the trainer) 0.5pt e/w 16/1 general.

    I’m on the ratings pointers top rated as I’ve now made them apart of my portfolio, long may the profits keep going up 😉

    Good luck what ever your on today.

    Gav

    Gavin 12/01/17 12:00 PM Reply


    • Well done Gav, the ‘All-Weather People’ will be happy with that one!! 🙂 Hope you had a last min dash onto the win side!

      Josh 12/01/17 2:03 PM Reply


      • Sadly not Josh 🙁 did think about about 3 mins to go, he was 8.94 BFSP, oh well still nice profit

        Gavin 12/01/17 2:12 PM Reply


  • Very nice Bonus winner BARAZA @ 7/2 BOG…..hope there’s a few more waiting to win

    Norman 12/01/17 12:45 PM Reply


    • Yep, I will update all results asap- I think a case is building just to back Bonus blind if you want also- I do include them in ratings pointers if they ‘qualify’ on that basis- he didn’t on either, was also qual on my George micro on the free posts. That ticks along.

      Josh 12/01/17 12:47 PM Reply


      • only 4th rated (R4) on my figures but he was top rated in the HRB “Trainers (Trn)” column and being in the lists was the final encouragement required

        Norman 12/01/17 12:59 PM Reply


  • Good day at the office today, top work again Josh.

    Just my little AW each way bet tonight to go, will be a nice bonus if it comes in.

    Gavin 12/01/17 5:26 PM Reply


    • yep, ‘needed’ that last race winner, more mentally- but ‘all ratings x2’ were on 10 losers in a row for the week- a gentle reminder from the racing gods after winning 38 points last week, that this game isn’t all plain sailing! The George chaser looked the winner for the whole race, all bar the last 50 yards, to my eyes. Would have been the icing, but on we go. Those top rated ones are ticking along nicely.
      Good luck with that one later. Josh

      Josh 12/01/17 5:36 PM Reply


      • Yes, and I agree with the you about racing gods they have kicked my cocky arse all around this week. This game is definitely not all plain sailing, in a crazy kind of way that’s way I love it 🙂 Well back to it, got a load of replays to go through hopefully I can spot a few to follow.

        Cheers Gav

        Gavin 12/01/17 6:02 PM Reply


        • I will give you one.. Horstead Keynes, the Simcock ‘Jan pointer’ horse – 5pm Newcastle. Your AW race watching eyes will be better than mine.. only ridden hands and heels- we only have a side on view, and possible there were no gaps in front of him..I think he could have been a lot closer! Doubt a win is far away imo, if I have read that right. Ride looked ‘odd’. But will give benefit of the doubt! 🙂

          Josh 12/01/17 6:06 PM Reply


          • I’ll have a look, and tell you my thoughts

            Gavin 12/01/17 6:09 PM Reply


            • Horsted Keynes, looked liked Kelly didn’t try all on him :-/ He placed at Kempton back in oct 2015 then last in he next 4 runs of which 3 were in class 2 can he’s mark as not moved much (he was a useful 3yo’s) looks like the handicapper as got him by the curley’s. Could be very interesting if they can get his mark down, I’ll keep an eye on him.

              Gavin 12/01/17 6:54 PM Reply


              • Horsted Keynes, looked liked Kelly didn’t try all on him :-/ He placed at Kempton back in oct 2015 then last in he next 4 runs of which 3 were in class 2 he came last, his mark as not moved much (he was a useful 3yo’s) looks like the handicapper as got him by the curley’s. Could be very interesting if they can get his mark down, I’ll keep an eye on him.

                Gavin 12/01/17 6:56 PM Reply


      • Yes, and I agree with you about the racing gods, they have been kicking my cocky arse all around this week. This game is definitely not all plain sailing, in a crazy kind of way that’s way I love it. Well back too it got a load of replays to go through hopefully I can spot a few to follow.

        Cheers

        Gav

        Gavin 12/01/17 6:06 PM Reply


  • I’m having a right balls up with my posting today sorry 🙂

    Gavin 12/01/17 6:58 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Great insight introduction video to assist members of the Ratings Pointers.
    Best wishes 2017
    Simon

    simon long 13/01/17 8:35 PM Reply


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