TTP Jumps Notes: 09/01/17 (complete)

 

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

3.45 Donc – Cajun Fiddle (all hncps) 14,30 2nd 9/4

(she looked a monkey there, not one to be trusted in a battle as yet) 

 

Geegeez Speed

none.

 

***

2.All Qualifiers (against stats pack)

 

DONCASTER

3.45 Donc – Cajun Fiddle (all hcnps) 14,30 2nd 9/4

 

***

A quiet Monday to ease us all into the week, which is no bad thing after a hectic enough weekend. Hopefully you helped yourself to some of the profit over the weekend, around +33 points or so I think, if you had 1 point on all Ratings Pointer horses (inc x2 if double qualified) Not bad, and much needed – not for those who have been on this ‘ratings pointers’ journey since the 9th December, but certainly those of you who took the Christmas trial. Hopefully your faith has been rewarded and/or you have some confidence moving forwards with this approach.

The ‘ratings pointers’ are on around +93 points or so I think, since 9th December, 28 race days! Madness. And , i think they may have overtaken the ‘overall qualifiers, backing them all’ numbers, which given they have been going for 15 weeks, indicates the ratings pointers are the place to focus, which trying to nab the odd non-ratings winner.

As for Cajun Fiddle- it is a 4 runner race and he is unexposed. No issues with the jockey, 2/9,4p in handicap hurdles to date. Will probably be a tactical affair but any backers should get a run for their money.

I should add- the ‘double top rated qualifiers‘ (top rated HRB+ Geegeez) are now a perfect 3/3. We shall see how long they can keep that up.

Back Monday afternoon with Tuesday’s post.

Josh

p.s as always if you have any questions/comments do post below or send me an email, info@racingtoprofit.co.uk

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Surprisingly, Bishops Court, who had so much in his favour was not favourite, so we got a value bet at 5/2 and a 16 length winner! Markets are unfathomable.

    chrisrees 08/01/17 6:18 PM Reply


    • Yep very odd. We won’t complain. Always pleasantly surprised when top rated are around 5/2,7/2. And I think Bishops was miles clear on HRB. Tanked through that race, as did his other winner. Knew they would be going close a log way out which is always exciting.

      Josh 08/01/17 6:48 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh on outstanding profits. It must take hard work on your side. may it continue. been a member now only a few weeks. Betting small but .will increase stakes when profit continues. as I am sure it will. because you seem to hit good priced winners with the rating pointers. ,which can flatten losing runs.
    Thanks john decker.

    fallon 08/01/17 10:05 PM Reply


    • Cheers John, well you don’t get much in life without hard work I don’t think, unless you are rather lucky thanks to relatives hard work! The most effort I suppose is before the season, getting the stats pack research done/correct, and always room for improvement in that (for example I think there are some trainers/angles where including ‘all handicaps’ including novice handicaps, may work better,but that is for next season) That is a good 40-50 hours I suppose, to do it properly. And with that said I need to start on the Flat version soon!

      Then a case of putting in the time to create each day’s post and doing my best to make your experience the best it can be etc. All good fun.

      Yep that sounds like a sensible approach, the worst thing you can do is dive in with too much, and then after 6/7 days or so go, ‘what the hell is this’ many did that I fear. But, patience has been rewarded and given the results ‘pre offer’ from the Ratings Pointers I am not shocked- it is hard not to be confident given the numbers so far. And,, none of the methodology is changing – there is no human subjective thought there really, on the ratings pointers- provided HRB and Geegeez Speed ratings remain constant,so should the results, in theory. Around a 27% win strike rate means losing runs of 22-25 can be expected every now and then, and anything in between. But as you point out the pointers have a habit of finding good priced horses, as well as plenty in the 5/2-4/1 range, which means those losses can be wiped out in one blow, as with Saturday’s winner say.

      On we go. Josh

      Josh 09/01/17 9:40 AM Reply


      • Josh. thanks for your reply.and also thanks for your plans for the future. Very interesting. John D. (Fallon)

        fallon 09/01/17 5:02 PM Reply


  • Well done on the last few days, the system seems to be working out well. As for today I think I’ll give Cajun Fiddle a swerve as being a top 3 rated horse in a field of 4 isn’t too tough! Hopefully something crops up tomorrow

    Jackadam 09/01/17 8:09 AM Reply


  • hi jackadam
    ref not backing CAJUN FIDDLE , there was similar case last week , just 4 runners like today and 2/3 rated that won 5 to 1, your decision? personally i dont think too deeply at all about qualifiers, why should i ? just by backing all qualifiers since 14 december am +
    72 points up @ level stakes.

    pendrem 09/01/17 9:36 AM Reply


    • Yep, no right on wrong Malc and at that price I can understand why some may leave. No one has to justify why they support or leave a horse on here, each to their own.

      I personally keep it simple in terms of posting the quals – he is top 3 on HRB, so up he goes- I can’t start thinking about number of runners/cut off points etc as that is my subjective meddling. I suspect ‘jack’ may be on if he were 5s+

      I think the only ‘deeper’ thought is whether you may take a stronger opinion on a ratings pointer horse and have more on, or take a view on a big priced horse not in the ratings pointers- the Level Statkes profit being built up allows that freedom I think, to bring your own thoughts to the party as well- I don’t want to be missing the next Heartforth say, that won at 50s a couple weeks back not in the ratings pointers. Those are the really fun ones to watch cross the line, as he was, for small money.

      Josh

      Josh 09/01/17 9:43 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,just note of thanks,as you know its only my 2nd month, my first 13 days i did not have a bet,with having a series of 6 strokes,so my old grey matter has slowed down some and i cannot remember what i used to,if i dont write it down lol but at least only left with poor eyesight and weakness in my left arm, so im not doing so bad, a lot worse than me after just one stroke,no pills for recovery from strokes only a lot of hard work !!!

    anyways I digress
    I write to say thanks, because for the first me ever,i`m actually taking some money from the bookies and all from some very small stakes, very low risk and some very nice returns, not all days have been winning ones but i do seem to be having more than average and do hit a lot of doubles, my approach is a simple one, i list all of the horses micros/ trainers everything and then filter them down to a short list using various free sites on the net and one i pay for but all are filters for speed and or form, i then take the short list and have very small stake on trixies, paitents or luck 15/31 please see list
    sorry not sure my date are right so only listed the horses and track times
    £1 trixie = £4 soupy soup 1st fake 1.10
    automated 1st navan 1.20
    bonets vino 1st fake 2.50
    return £157.90

    50p e/way lucky 15 = £15
    yur next 1st taunton 3.50
    beav de brizais 1st taunton 12.45
    sommerset lias lost taunton 2.20
    j snipe 1st [tip from friend]
    return £260.25

    lucky 15 =£7.5 [8/1/17]
    greyed a 3rd chep 4.00
    walt 1st fake 2.40
    bobble boru 1st chep 3.00
    highbury high n/r fake 3.10
    return £59.50

    to be totally honest i would of been happy to break even, i already like the site, i have a liking for outsiders and have a small bank of £250 set aside for a long term small stakes
    not really got this sorted yet but all the right information is there i just need my grey matter to work lol and good old fashioned luck working of course.

    THANK YOU again Josh thanks for all your hard work that as made all this possible, i think you have already gathered i will be with this site for a long time to come quite a few months are already paid for

    CHEERS
    KEITH

    keith Hartley 09/01/17 12:55 PM Reply


    • Thanks Keith, much appreciated. Sounds like you are having a fair bit of fun with that approach, and long may it continue- one day, you may land the monster!! Do let us know when you do! But, those returns are good for small outlays.

      Given your bank has grown, I would consider backing all ‘ratings pointers’ horses to some amount, even if just £2 on the nose on each say, that should give you more to play with over time, and maybe get even more creative!

      The best win % so far has been the ‘top rated’ runners- 33% win strike rate- and given your approach and how they are performing, you may wish to consider always including them in your multiples,or high up on any shortlist.

      Either way, sounds like you have settled on an approach that works for you and that makes you enjoy the game, which is what it is all about.

      Long may it continue and thanks for your support, always appreciated.
      Josh

      Josh 09/01/17 1:04 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    This all looks very exciting, you must be loving recent results!! Love stats based systems and trainer habit etc so your approach really appealed. As is always the case i’ve been dry testing this system since it started and am going to go live this week!!( i should expect a down turn in your profits now !!), are your points totals worked using sp, or BFsp or your best price and going forward do you recommend taking prices in morn?

    Cheers again Josh, looking forward to spending a lot of time with you and your systems.

    Andy

    Andy Bishop 09/01/17 1:24 PM Reply


    • Hi Andy,

      Yep it does rather! All a bit mad. I have always been a big trainer systems punter, always been the core I think, or I have wanted it to be- their problem, or can be, is that trainer systems don’t take account of the horse’s form, or place it in context of the race/oppo- and that is where HRB and Geegeez come in, as those ratings do just that really. So, in theory, and in practice, it should be the best of both worlds! Likewise those ratings don’t really account for trainer habit.

      haha- yep that is always the way sadly! Boxing Day was the first day of the free trial xmas offer, and you did the right thing in paper trading then!! Gosh it was a bad day,but having done a big push, I just knew that would happen!

      As with 27% win strike rates (which all ratings pointers quals are operating at, 33% for top rated) you will get losing runs of 24 every thousand bets or so- well that’s what the maths dictates, obviously you get shorter than that more regularly – but there will be bad runs, I never escape from that. Profit is always the main thing, come the end of a season- albeit having regular winners to cheer does make it all the more fun!

      The profits are worked out to 1 point win bets at ‘best price available’ BUT- I am very fair with that approach- I take a temperature check in the evening, and more so in the morning, around 9/10am. I ensure a price is available with at least 2 ‘highstreet’ bookies say, and that it lingers around long enough for me to judge that people could have got on. I have recorded some recent winners at 7/2, 14/1 and 20/1, but know members have got on,and me, at 9/2, 18/1 and 33/1, depending on what time they logged on. There is never any deception in these parts. Well, not intentional anyway!

      I would always advise taking morning prices with BOG bookies while you can. Sometimes, BFSP may be best with some bigger priced ones but I would only recommend that if you can track price during day say- none of our winners have really drifted as such from a morning price from memory, not massively as yet anyway. Always more likely the price comes in. I have to monitor price/against member numbers etc- but, as yet we are not affecting anything – betting at different times helps I think- if X all went on at a certain time we might cause a few waves!

      So yep, to be more succint, take the best price you can with a BOG bookie if you can.

      Hope that helps,
      Josh

      Josh 09/01/17 1:50 PM Reply


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