TTP Jumps Notes: 08/01/17 (complete)

 

  1. The Ratings Pointers
  2. All Qualifiers against stats pack
  3. Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)
  4. Any general messages/updates etc

 

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

4.00 C – Greyed A 3rd 

2.40 F – Disputed 3rd 12/1>9/1

3.10 F – Bishops Court – WON 5/2

Top 3

4.00 C -Horseguardsparade- UP

 

GeegeezGold

Top Rated

2.40 F – Walt – WON 7/2 

3.10 F – Bishops Court – WON 5/2

Top 3

3.00 C – Bobble Boru – WON 12/1>8/1

4.00 C – Greyed A – 3rd 

2.10 F- So Fine – UP

 

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2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

 

CHEPSTOW

3.00

Deja Bougg (all hncps) UP

Bobble Boru (all hncps) WON 12/1 

Shaama Grise (hncps h) (no speed rating) 2nd

3.30

Kepp Moving (micro age) UP

4.00

Hill Fort (all hncps) UP

Poisoned Berry (hncp h) UP

Greyed A (hncp h) 30 3rd 

Horseguardsparade (micro going IF HEAVY) H3 (it is heavy,he qualifies) UP

Swincombe Toby (micro age) UP

 

FONTWELL

1.40

Blake Dean (hncp h + micro class) UP

2.10

So Fine (micro TJC) UP

2.40

Walt (all hncps + hncp hurdle) WON 7/2

Disputed (hncp h) 3rd 12/1

3.10

Bishops Court (all hncps) WON 5/2

Highbury High (all hncps) NR

 

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3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

None for Sunday. I generally just post qualifiers and ratings on a Sunday, as it is a weekend. Busy day ahead for the ratings pointers. Market would indicate a few have decent chances which is always exciting.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

I have repeated the ‘key’ from another post, below. Hopefully you enjoyed Saturday and, along with Landmarque earlier in the weeks at 14s, that was some indication of what ‘the ratings pointers’ and this stats approach can do. Slow and steady profits is what it is all about and with any luck new trialists are now in profit- around +19 points on Saturday if you just had 1 point on all the ratings pointers horses. (I declared the biggie at 20/1, some got 18s SP, some got much bigger,but I think that price was around in enough places) Anyway, there will be more highs, there will be lows, but over time, we should do just fine. (not to sound like a broken record) Hopefully a case of faith rewarded for those of you who joined around Christmas and stuck with it. Whether you bet in £1s like Bill (who posted a comment on Sat) or £10s per point like me, or anything in between/much bigger, the idea is to have some fun, and make some profits. Hopefully you enjoyed the day. And, if you have taken the sensible approach of paper trading say, hopefully confidence may now be boosted moving forward.

 

NOTE: In the ratings pointers above, BOLD indicated a ‘double qualifier,against both ratings’ in RED is a ‘double top rated qualifier- they are a perfect 2/2 so far…)

 

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KEY:(applicable across the blog) 

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

**

Enjoy the rest of your weekend,

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

17 Comments

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  • Thanks Josh

    Pab 07/01/17 6:14 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Can I ask,How do the top rated horses on HRB become top rated?
    I’m a member of HRB and I understand that the selections are top rated in their respective races but what makes these horses different from the top rated of any other race?
    Does that make sense?
    Andy

    Andy Ness 08/01/17 1:44 AM Reply


    • Hi Andy,
      I don’t think I do understand that question! I simply look at the racecards in HRB and look at the ratings, ordering highest to lowest for those stats qualifiers and highlighting as such. The starting point is the qualifiers against my stats pack. From there I check the ratings. I know i haven’t understood your question… or maybe I have. The ‘way in’ are the qualifiers against my trainer stats for each track. If you stay beyond any trial period you get to download the full stats pack etc. The trainer stats are the core. The ratings help focus from there on in. I don’t think either set of ratings I use take account of trainer pattterns… they are horse focussed. Which I think is why the ‘fusion’ seems to work.

      Josh 08/01/17 3:20 AM Reply


  • Josh, due to the large amount of selections highlighted for the 4:00Ch (6 in total)I decided to dig deep before placing the money. What I found was most of the highlighted horses are unlikely to act on the going (Hvy). I am ok on Poisoned berry and undecided on Hoseguardsparade (weak on BF). Interestingly most of the 6 are breeds that are much better chasing than hurdling.
    Greyed A sire stats over the last 5 years show 36 runs on hvy in all disciplines with 3 wins they were at 2 miles. 13 have tried at today’s distance only 2 placed
    Also amongst the 18 runners are ½ a dozen more that have what look to be the right conditions for the first time or first in some time. Of particular interest are Western Wave, Beallandendall (I have issues with the trainer on this one, but horse is fine) and The Mad Well.
    The Mad Well is very interesting as fist time since joining Tim Vaughn he has the conditions that look perfect. Only one pound higher than when 3/1 fav for an £8,000 ace at Sligo (3rd beaten 5 1/4 ), where the winner won twice more since when he was 13l in front of the 4th . The 2nd has since lost by a shorter margin of a higher mark and higher grade. All in all that was a decent race. At 33/1 ew he has to be my pick. I will include Greyed A in the staking plan though as I like your angles and stats do get broken.
    The horse that was 2nd to Greyed A last time Runs 3:10 against Bishops Court/Highbury High and may well be worth a saver as the race looks quite weak.

    Gary 08/01/17 6:36 AM Reply


  • Hi Gary,good luck. Yep again the core stats throwing up that many bets,esp in one race, was another reason for introduction of the ratings pointers . That is where I have focussed. I take the view with unexposed horses especially that until they have proven they won’t handle conditions I will assume they might. All in context of price etc . I never over think the ratings pointers as over time that would end up with me leaving a few winners/profits no doubt and with 27%+ win SR I just let the roll. Good luck with yours, nice price and that graft deserves some placed profit,chasing home to two main ratings selections!

    Josh 08/01/17 10:39 AM Reply


  • Can’t believe I missed bobble boru can’t complain another suburb day
    josh after yesterday’s epicness

    rob 08/01/17 3:26 PM Reply


    • Oh no Rob, don’t say that! Just back all the ratings pointers horses I think, seems to be the way forward! (as a minimum) We will never out-smart those ratings pointers with our own ‘form analysis’. Busier day than ideal maybe but when the winners are going in, its rather good fun! I think 1 point on all ratings pointers (inc x2 if on twice) is now on around 95 points since i had that idea on 9th December. Madness really.

      Josh 08/01/17 3:30 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    D A Rees looks as though he has an exceptional record at Chepstow and duly gets Dream Bolt home @ 16/1 in the 3.30 race

    has he been overlooked in the TTP’s or have you had a closer look at his results and discarded him ?

    Norman 08/01/17 3:41 PM Reply


    • Ah such comments like that make me jittery as I rush for the guide to see if I add to the 3 clunkers (missed horse) in 15 weeks or so… and phew, nope mr Rees isn’t on the profile, for whatever reason- the stats pack only cover the last 3 full seasons, 13/14/15,then what was half way through 2016 when researched. It also doesn’t include ‘novice handicaps’ in the overall handicap stats – which is something I may look at for next year, as I think some trainers just have a decent record in ‘all handicaps’ but that is something to look at. Those included may have just had better stats in that time period. There will be some reason he isn’t in there, but I don’t know what it is! But, he hasn’t been missed.

      Josh 08/01/17 3:54 PM Reply


      • His last winner was 2013, looking just at Nat Hunt, Chepstow, Handicap……but just opening up the “profiler” and highlighting (All NH) & (Hcaps) shows a very good record…..7/35 profit £17.33 win 20 %, place 31%….but not many runners (7) since his last winner

        we cannot cover every angle but there could be a “micro” in these figures based on older results, especially if they still hold a licence

        Norman 08/01/17 4:24 PM Reply


  • 4:00 Another example of why I have said stats don’t apply to John Jo’s stable. My staking had 2nd 3rd & 4th but all on the nose so no joy again! I lay horses but my golden rule is never lay that stable as you will get caught at big odds sooner or later

    Gary 08/01/17 4:19 PM Reply


    • Well, some stats no doubt but his TTP stats for Cheltenham this year haven’t fared too bad, with 3 winners at 12/1, 6/1 and 33/1 🙂 But, yep, take general point- hard stable to read, not one you can back blind with handicap debutants either I dont think,but clearly knows the time of day with those! I don’t lay horses so my views on that aspect not worth much haha.

      Josh 08/01/17 4:24 PM Reply


  • Happy days! Who says you can’t win on a Sunday 🙂

    James b 08/01/17 4:23 PM Reply


    • Happy Days indeed, weekends have been rather kind to us in general, long may it continue.

      Josh 08/01/17 5:40 PM Reply


  • Brillant few days Josh…love the new format more succinct and definatley more profitable:) happy days for all of us who kept the faith. Good man

    johnnybhoy72 08/01/17 5:29 PM Reply


    • Cheers Johnny, appreciated. Yep I can do my best to confuse things at time, and a structure always helps! And, it has clearly helped turn the form around for you suffering free trialists who had the please of the horror that was Boxing Day where you must have wondered what you had joined! Hopefully around +33 points over the weekend has lifted the spirits. Glad you kept the faith. (quite a few didn’t which was a shame)

      Josh 08/01/17 5:32 PM Reply


  • Just the one bet for me today and what a good win by Bishops Court. The refinement to the already sound approach certainly has sharpened up returns – keep it up Josh

    finalflight 08/01/17 5:52 PM Reply


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