TTP Jumps Notes: 07/01/16 (complete)

 

I will re-order these posts I think and try and make them more accessible. So..

  1. The Ratings Pointers
  2. All Qualifiers against stats pack
  3. Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)
  4. Any general messages/updates etc

 

1. RATINGS POINTERS

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

3.20 N – Ill Walk The Line WON 15/8 

Top 3 

1.15 S – Gores Island 3rd 9/1

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

none.

Top 3 

1.00 N- McGintys Dream WON 20/1>18s

2.05 W – Ballygarvey UP

3.15 W – Milord – UP

 

***

 

2.ALL QUALIFIERS

NEWCASTLE

1.00

McGintys Dream (hncp hurdle + micro class) WON 20/1

1.35

Un Noble (all hncps+hncp chase) UP

2.45

Heres To Harry (micro class) (no speed rating as yet) UP

3.20

Ill Walk The Line (NHF) (no speed ratings) WON 15/8

 

SANDOWN

1.15

Morning Reggie (all hncps) 14 UP

3.00

Cody Wyoming (all hncps) UP

Ericht (micro going IF SOFT) 14,30 UP

Aerial (micro – runs this season) 30 UP

3.35

Discours D’Un Roi (micro going IF SOFT- yes) 14,30 UP

Maestro Royal (mico going IF SOFT- yes) 14,30 WON 10/1>15/2

 

WINCANTON

2.05

Fergal Mael Duin (hncp chase+ micro distance/horse runs this season) UP

Ballygarvey (micro class) UP

3.15

Milord (all hncps) UP

Bradford Bridge (hncp chase) UP

 

BONUS 

none.

***

 

3. OTHER NOTES

NOTES: Well just a focus on any ‘biggies’ not on the ratings pointers at the moment… Heres To Harry in the 2.45 Newc is around 33s in places, looking at the letters next to his form it’s not hard to see why. Alexander is 3/89,11p with handicap chasers going off 14/1 or bigger so market support should probably be noted. It is hard to rule him out completely, given this is only his second chase start and despite age 10, only his 8th career start-albeit he hasn’t done anything on the track yet. He may be tailed off, but that ‘unexposed’ profile,are the kind that can be worth a second glance, where they as yet may not have shown their best etc. He may just be devoid of ability of course. If he stays around 33s+ I may leave him, but any signs of market life I may have £2.5,£5 on him to see (1/4,1/2 point for me) There are no other potential monster prices ones, as yet, not on the ratings pointers.

 

 

***

4.MESSAGES/UPDATES

 

 

Too Many Bets For Your Liking? 

Just a quick note. One of you fine trialists asked to be unsubscribed – which was fine, no questions asked on that front- albeit he voluntarily cited the service ‘not suiting his way of punting’ – again, more than fair. This isn’t for everyone. But, I did enquire as to what that meant and he was kind enough to reply with the following…

“As for my way of punting…it is staking a lot on a very few. I am sure your site will continue to throw up plenty of winners but there is a glut of selections, though I DID take your advice re the 12/1 winner in the Sussex National, though I foolishly took c15/1on Betfair and it paid over 20’s !!  I do always read your posts and am grateful of some of your comments. Long may they continue …and thanks again”

No doubt some of you may be thinking the same thing. So, what is the possibly solution to that? (in terms of the Members Posts, the Sussex National winner was a free tip)

Well, the most focused approach looks like being just backing any horse ‘Top Rated’ within the ratings pointers section. Since these pointers were introduced, these Top Rated Qualifiers are now… (in 26 race days I think…)

48 bets / 14 wins / 24 places / 29% win sr / 50% win|p sr / +39.17 points / 81% ROI

Those do include the 2 ‘double top rated’ qualifiers, which are now a perfect 2/2.

So, at what is an average of 1.8 bets per day, that may be a way forward and a solution to similar concerns as to what the trialist above had. Of course it is still early days but those are starting to look like ver solid stats.  If you want a very focused approach, that may be the best place to start.

As always if you have any questions on how to get the best of these daily notes etc, then don’t be afraid to ask.

My own personal approach is to focus on the ‘Ratings Pointers’, with 1 TTP point on them all (that is £10 for me at the moment). I then look at Top Rated runners and ‘Double qualifiers’ (those in BOLD) The stats indicate I should probably start double staking on Top Rated qualifiers without over thinking it. I then have a flick through ‘non ratings pointers’ and NHF races and work out if I want to have anything on those, price allowing etc. I am conscious there have been a few biggies go in, not in the ratings, and i want to make sure I have something on those most of the time I think,if some sort of case can be made. I will try and highlight such hunches in ‘the notes’.

If you are after a shortlist of ‘TIPS’ as such, the closest thing on here is ‘The Ratings Pointers’ .

If you are confused as to how best approach the content please do comment or email me. I have tried to publish results etc so you can navigate an approach that suits you, but maybe I could be clearer.

 

***

That will be all for Saturday.

Sunday’s qualifiers will likely be posted Saturday late afternoon.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • Hi josh just a suggestion perhaps you could provide the points profit with the each way betting.sometimes when your on a losing run it can be disheartening especially when new to following someone’s tips.but if the place is showing a profit perhaps that’s a way forward .even a small profit a 50% strike rate would give consistent winners for some.

    jamie2255 06/01/17 6:36 PM Reply


    • Hi Jamie,
      Yep not a bad shout, suggestions always welcome. I do only record results to 1 point win only on the nose and recommend that anyone keeps there own results as well, esp if betting on exchanges or EW.
      But, for the ratings pointers, I could have a look at recording results EW for horses over a certain price.
      While, since boxing day, we have not catapulted into profit, there have been enough winners/losing runs haven’t been bad- not for the ratings anyway. Just need a spurt.
      Josh

      Josh 06/01/17 6:39 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh. The simple solution I think would be for you to say my personal bets today are:- – – 1pt on such an such 1/2 point on whatever. That way no one will be left in any doubt what so ever. And thy can bet at £1 a point or £50 a point or what they feel comfortable with. SIMPLES Regards Al

    Alan Haig 06/01/17 6:56 PM Reply


    • Hi Alan,
      Sadly that isn’t the simple solution as you don’t want my subjective judgement clouding things too much- which in part was the reason for the Ratings Pointers being introduced. They take that away.
      This service should be judged on
      A) backing all qualifiers against the stats pack at least once max (+85 odd points since launch)
      B) backing all Ratings Pointers Horses- at least once I think, and then we can look at the different permutations. (just backing Top Rated say)
      The combination of those things will be more clever, and accurate than I will ever be. I won’t match a 27%, 50% place SR with the qualifiers, even if I wanted to.

      Those options, over time, esp B, should give a pretty profitable and solid approach.

      It is a trainer stats based/ratings bases approach, not a tipping approach. I know that doesn’t suit everyone, hence the trial, and that may be why people have left etc.

      But, if people want a well researched, concise, list of value bets that should do well over time, in the Ratings Pointers, that’s what they have.

      That is what the service should be judged on. My subjective judgement isn’t good enough – it is fine with 3m+ handicap chases over time, but not all those different race types/distances/classes/horse pools. That is why I like a mixed model, and using trainer stats etc. Takes that stress/thinking, out of it.

      Having said that, there will be big priced winners not in the ratings pointers and I will try my best to add notes on those also, as above.

      Users will/may end up having different profit levels etc. But, if you are having fun, and making decent profits over time (not just yet for new trialists!) then hopefully everyone will be happy. Using the ratings pointers as a base, then does allow users to use their own views/thoughts on some of the others etc, knowing there is a good foundation behind every horse on these pages.

      Josh

      Josh 06/01/17 7:13 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, Fair comments I just thought for those new to betting or race form reading it maybe a good way in for them. For a starting point until they get more experience
    Regards Al

    Alan Haig 06/01/17 7:26 PM Reply


    • Yep I take that point Alan- i suppose this approach,esp the ratings pointers- is supposed to remove any subjective deliberation etc. I would like to think there is plenty of content across the blog that helps any newbies on that front, and reading my 3m+ chase write ups say, may help in that endeavour -as does reading the insights/thought processes of the many readers who comments etc, such as yourself. There are many on here who have said publicly in comments that they are a much better bettor/racing punter from reading everything on the blog over the last few years/months. It is a long term game, patience is key, quick profits rarely achieved. We should all do ok in the long run, and have done.

      Josh 07/01/17 12:15 PM Reply


  • Methinks people complain too much. If everyone bothered to check the results page they’d know this website offers massive value essentially for free. Some punters just can’t see value if it slaps them in the face. Thanks for your hard work, Josh.

    John 07/01/17 10:34 AM Reply


    • Cheers John- new readers/members etc are always in their right to question things, poke, ask questions etc. I try and be transparent with everything to help with decision makers. It is a long term game, and hunting value is a full of peaks and many troughs, but we have done ok over time, since we started. But, what i do/my approach, isn’t for everyone. Josh

      Josh 07/01/17 12:46 PM Reply


  • Dam n blast I just missed Mcginty’s at 38’s in-running lol 33.8 bfSP

    silvbird 07/01/17 1:11 PM Reply


    • Please say you had something on at some price!!

      Josh 07/01/17 1:11 PM Reply


  • Fantastic stat runner there Josh. Thank you! Had a muggy fiver on when bit of money came in at 25’s.
    Threw another fiver on their runner in the 2.45 which has been supported a little also.
    Top stuff!

    leon1986 07/01/17 1:13 PM Reply


    • Ah, can I declare 25s as general price?? Good to hear, somehow got 33s PP last night, only ones with that price I think. Always hunting value- the ‘ratings pointers’ seem to be doing ok! 🙂

      Josh 07/01/17 1:16 PM Reply


    • Oh and there is nothing muggy with the ratings pointers haha- they are rather sophisticated! It is winners like that whereby you just have to trust them long term, or you don’t. 🙂

      Josh 07/01/17 1:31 PM Reply


  • Nice result with McGinty’s Dream

    danegold 07/01/17 1:13 PM Reply


  • William hill were 16/1 last night.

    danegold 07/01/17 1:18 PM Reply


  • hi josh i got 20/1 for£1ew every bit helps keep em coming bill

    billfieseler 07/01/17 1:18 PM Reply


  • got 32’s with betfair on Mcgintys dream great start thanks

    martin whittle 07/01/17 1:23 PM Reply


  • mcgintys dream!!!!! brilliant ! TTP/HRB/ GEEGEEZ STRIKES AGAIN, well done josh !

    pendrem 07/01/17 1:27 PM Reply


  • i’m a newbie here and have just been playing about with the selections so far until i build a strategy for staking thinking of 3% for main selections and 1% for the rest, any opinions?

    martin whittle 07/01/17 1:33 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin.. very sensible to feel your way in and find an approach that works for you. I am fairly confident, based on live results to date, that this will be a strategy that is profitable long term, and I don’t plan on going anywhere anytime soon- point being, plenty of time to find an approach that works etc

      I think any service/tipster/system etc should work to 1 point level stakes win bets. If it can’t turn a profit doing that, it doesn’t work.

      I am a boring punter in that sense and bet 1 point level stakes on the whole. But, with the ratings pointers- if they continue a 27% or so win SR- that may open up opportunities for % staking as you suggest – there will be members on here, and readers of the free posts- who know much more about that approach than me- Steve Wiseman who comments a lot on free posts does % staking and he may have some views, I will ask him on tomorrow’s free post if he doesn’t see this.

      So, as a minimum I would always have something on the ratings pointers horses, as noted above.

      Then a question of what we do. The overall qualifiers throw up winners not on the ratings pointers- I think a case could be made to have X on any non ratings qualifier put in 20/1 or bigger- unless some trainer stats which really put you off, price based stats, that I try and highlight. That is in context that they have found Torika Steppes (25s) , Only Georgeous (20s), Eastlake (33s), Heartforth (50s) – so backing all 20/1+ may be some sort of system in itself- there will be long losing runs with those, there has to be, at those odds- but winners will crop up, this season, next etc etc.

      Also,given how Top Rated ratings pointers horses have done, you could make a case for putting X amount more on those I think also.

      I have stopped having something on every qualifier. It it too many bets for my own comfort, as it turned out, and the ROI etc is so much higher with the ratings pointers. Just then trying to have something on those non ratings pointers biggies, of which from time to time they will be (they tend to pay for a lot of ‘normal’ qualifiers losers, not in ratings pointers, it seems)

      Josh

      Josh 07/01/17 1:50 PM Reply


  • Well Josh Maestro Royal as well I’m convinced you got the best blog. Pointers that work ratings bang on what a brilliant day I’ve had. cheers buddy. All backed with a bit of caution I must say ( E.W and small stakes) . Can’t blame me I’ve only just joined but after today I have a lot more confidence and looking forward to a long and profitable journey with you.
    Regards Alan

    Alan Haig 07/01/17 3:56 PM Reply


    • Cheers Alan, much appreciated. Starting ‘low and slow’ is the only way- you don’t want to do what I did when I was 18 and dive straight in with a service and 8 months later stop having lost £2650- dived in with 20s, and it was a con, they knew nothing! Blew 100 points + cost of service. Then went to £2s and learnt about game, found geegeez etc etc. The only way. I am not going anywhere, and neither is the approach by the looks of it- you have all the time in the world to get to a point of betting X, having more confidence. Bill above has a great time betting in £1s, which at around £10 per month that allows you to do. All about profit and fun, that is the main thing- how much the former is doesn’t mater too much, can build up over time with any luck.

      Yep, nice win for Maestro – tad annoyed I didn’t highlight him as was 10s and he was ‘unexposed’ – and those types always worth a second glance- but then ignoring ratings pointers- he basically covered losses on all the rest of the qualifiers.

      On we go, had better look at tomorrow’s cards now…
      Josh

      Josh 07/01/17 4:01 PM Reply


  • First time i have posted and would like to say, Well done Josh, missed the lot !! Typical of the run I’ve had this wk, but I’m pleased for you and your growing followers. Loving the systems and following the results.

    stephen merifield 07/01/17 8:31 PM Reply


    • Cheers Stephen. Ah that is a shame but there will plenty more of those over time so not to worry! If those ratings pointers continue with the % they have been,while I would say ‘dipping in and out’ isn’t ideal,often it may be likely that when you do swing by there will be some winners with any luck! This week has more than made up for Boxing day,which was a horror show in truth! On we go. Glad you are enjoying tracking everything. We seem to have stumbled across an exciting approach!

      Josh 07/01/17 8:42 PM Reply


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