FREE DAILY POST: 04/01/17 (complete)

A decent two days for the blog, +26 points with tips and TTP ratings pointers horses (14/1 winner Tuesday much needed after a recent lull/some annoying/close second places,but they will do just fine over time. Evidence suggests they work) Nice to start off 2017 with 2/3 on the tipping front, and a rare thing- every one of them giving us some sort of run for our money!

A quiet day on Wednesday, jumping wise… NO TIPs, NO JUMPS ANGLES.

Early Jan and three meetings on the sand – Steve will love that,(some sire stattage on its way no doubt…) I think it’s ridiculous. But then, given so many jumps tracks want racing from Boxing Day>New Years Day, I suppose a lull was expected.

I will have a flick through my AW stats guide as a bonus and see if anything else stands out for Lingfield/Wolvs

***

EYE-CATCHERS

I am useless at tracking horses- one area I need to improve on massively – but a few for our notebooks (I say ‘our’ in the hope some of you may add these to trackers and remind me when I miss them! 🙂 )

Scooby.. McPherson handicap hurdler was a TTP pick on Tuesday and came 3rd rewarding any EW backers (not me) This race was run at a crawl, really was slow. Brennan rode a stormer on the winner – shock horror- realising the slow pace he switched him out wide early enough and got after him. Game over. Anyway, Scooby looks like a stayer and wants every yard of 24f. He was a bit flat footed when the tempo picked up but also couldn’t hold his position easily, getting shuffled back a few times – when he tried to close he nearly came down, taking a flight of hurdles with him. In the end he did well to come third. Looks like he needs a stronger pace and maybe a more galloping track- a long straight and sweeping bends in which to get going. Unexposed he should have wins in him over timber.

Dawson City… just a couple from the ‘tipping race’ while they are on my mind. He stays. He also likes the mud I think. This may not have been testing enough and he made a few errors when trying to close. If he were mine I would use his stamina and try and ride him more prominently. This run indicates he has a staying chase pot in him, at C3 level. Decent effort.

Sartorial Elegance– he drifted here, having bolted up the time before, but was running a big race before unseating rider just before they turned in for home. He hadn’t been asked a question there and to me was running like a horse still ahead of his mark. I am not sure if he got crowded as he had jumped ok up to that point and another who was trying to do it the hard way- closing horses in front who were not really stopping. He has more 3m+ chase wins in him.

– those are probably the main two from that, along with the winner who could go on from that. Keep Paddy on him! That prominent style and jumping (if he jumps like that again) and proven stamina will see him run well in many a staying chase. I am not sure if he wants much further than 3m4f/5f. That awaits to be seen. Talk of the Eider I see. Interesting – if he can get some space/race prominently. Azure Fly ran well also and he will pick up a race at some point as well no doubt. He ran better than i thought which makes me question how testing the ground really was. But, he is clearly in good spirits with himself.

Anything entered your notebooks recently?

 

***

TTP – ALL WEATHER

Lingfield

2.45

Ribbing (maidens) H1, G1 

Tell A Story (maidens) G3 

 

Wolvs

4.15

Ferryview Place (distance/class) 14 H1

 

H1 – horse race base top rated, H3, top 3 rated (so 2nd/3rd)

G1 – geegeez speed top rated, G3, top 3 rated.

With the jumpers, we have had two horses qualify top rated against both ratings sets and both have bolted up so far. So, interesting to see how Ribbing goes. He is evens though, maybe his stablemate will chase him home for a muggy forecast!

***

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

12.55 – Storm Alert(UP,but not far off 3rd – I suspect he could have gone much closer if desired there,no money,so that run not a shock. But showed he has retained ability I think. Interesting to see him next few starts,suspect may be punted of boards soon..) 25/1 (bet365) well I am easing of highlighting horses in this section as I am not that great at finding anything that runs well, consistently at least -and it is best for all sorts of reasons that I focus on all the other content. BUT, 25/1 caught my eye here. Anyone who uses Geegeez Gold may see why I have had a small EW nibble. He is 21 lbs below his last winning mark, before you take off the jockeys claim. He is suited to all race conditions and stays well (so the big step up in trip interesting- last run probably to get him fit,hers can step forward massively from first run) The yard are also in form, 1/5,4p last 14 days and this horse to his credit, has won or placed in half of all his handicap hurdle runs. Gardner had a virus last year I think, for a large part, and they are starting to run well again. Now, it could be he is just gone at the game. I wouldn’t be shocked if he tailed off. I also wouldn’t be shocked if he won. So, at 25s, I have had a small EW play. I know nothing about the jockey, he may not be any good. It is a strange race to line up a gamble and maybe they are lining up a race a bit further down the line, with Lucy back on. I suspect he may have a win in him this season and could be worth tracking. At this price, I will pay something to find out. (top rated on geegeez speed by some way also!)

May be worth having a look at Raafie in 3.55 also, big price, 4 places. Knowing me I have picked the wrong one. Those two may be worth baking EW just based on trainer form, for small stakes.

***

That will be all for Wednesday.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

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  • 3.55 Hereford keel haul each way any thoughts

    jamie2255 03/01/17 5:59 PM Reply


    • Hi Jamie

      Keel Haul looks like a cracking bet. I was amazed the bookies opened up at 14s (maybe higher but cannot use oddschecker abroad)-sorry didn’t get a chance to post before dinner, although I still think it’s a decent bet at 8s. (agian going by 365 here). If you combine his record over 2 miles, between Nov to Feb, not on flat tracks and with an OR of 126 or less you get a record of 1112211. His record in class 4 handicaps reads 1212. On top of that you get Dickie on for the first time. He has an excellent record for Oliver which is even better over handicap hurdles 5/11, 9p. Over the last week they have gone 241 so horses in good form.

      Nick Mazur 03/01/17 7:36 PM Reply


    • Couldn’t put you off Keel Haul. Plenty in hand versus his chase rating and jockey booking looks significant. I fancy Stage One, the favourite in this. Pre-season the stable really liked him and felt there was lots of improvement ahead. He was running well first time out until a blunder 2 out cost him the race, and then I thought was very careful in a decent hurdle the next time. Mark could be lenient but he would need to show what the stable think of him tomorrow. Like others I also like Bally Gilbert.

      Well done Josh by the way – great start to 2017

      JV 03/01/17 8:19 PM Reply


    • Yet to look Jamie but I know for sure I won’t be able to add anything on top of those comments already made. Others have made a compelling case at his odds. Get the feeling it may be a good day for the comments…

      Josh 03/01/17 8:45 PM Reply


    • Cheers everyone I took 13 each way .it ticked a lot of boxes just hoped I hadn’t misssed something.

      jamie2255 03/01/17 9:11 PM Reply


  • Hi Jamie

    not a bad EW selection although I think with the jockey booked the price will reduce further into single figures (12/1 BOG at the time of writing)

    Keel Haul (H4, R3) figures for me give it a fair chance of a win/place although the Trainer is not having the best of times 13w/143r with a loss – £70.53 in the last 12 months and he is a listed trainer for Trainer Quotes, tipsters who I am very wary about but sometimes they can provide big-priced winners……I don’t bother with “form study” so I am no help in that direction, I leave that to our resident expert Josh…..see what he says

    Norman 03/01/17 6:44 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    First things first Excellent work again today Josh a super start to 2017

    Fastnet Blast didn’t quite get the job done today probably following the wrong horse up the far side and the winner coming down the centre and not getting the tow on him till too late losing by a neck….But onwards to tomorrow and a feast of tapeta / polytrack action and 2 x “Super Stallion” qualifiers:

    2.35 Newcastle – Bollihope 3.75 best odds Betfair Sportsbook BOG
    Medicean 4 runs, 3 wins, 3 places – 75% win SR, 75% place SR

    5.45 Wolves – Cold Fusion 17.0 best odds BetVic / Paddy / Lads / Willhill
    Frozen Power 8 runs, 4 wins, 5 places – 50% win SR, 62.5% place SR

    Staking £19.60 at 3.75 Bollihope with best odds guaranteed 2% of £980.00
    Staking £19.20 at 17.0 Cold Fusion with best odds guaranteed 2% of £960.40

    Obviously we don’t know the result of the 2.35pm so in this instance I have staked the 2nd selection on the worst case scenario of Bollihope losing so i can lock in the odds, If indeed Bollihope wins at 3.75 then the stake would have been £20.67 on Cold Fusion…..Hope this makes sense.

    Also a mention for Rock Warbler 7.0 in the 3.35 Newcastle He has won twice for us already and is 2 out of 2 at the track over 6F and 7F and tries the 1M tomorrow. I’m really unsure if he wants this far and as such wont be backing him but wont be surprised if he wins. James Sullivan has rode him the last twice and retains the ride tomorrow, On his 2 previous rides around Chelmsford & Wolves he has pulled him out wide to make his run and looked for one burst of speed to make up ground but the horse has just flattened out over the last 1/2 furlong. This course and surface clearly suits him better and if James can give him a quiet ride like Kevin Stott has done brilliantly and weave through horses then he will be seen to best effect and over this trip I think he will need to hang on to him until very late, Nethertheless I will be interested to see how he goes and see if he sees out this mile

    Good Luck everyone with your selections

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 03/01/17 7:02 PM Reply


    • Hi Steve

      How does your super stallion system generally get on?

      Paul

      Paul 03/01/17 11:19 PM Reply


      • Hi Paul

        This is a newly generated list of 43 horses over varying distances on the AW with a minimum win SR of 40% to 80% the first selection was yesterday so as such in a live environment it is untested, but what I’ve attempted to do in the main is specifically choose stallions that have had several progeny wins over the given course & distance to show that these are the sires optimum conditions and as such should continue to perform well

        Cheers
        Steve

        Steve Wiseman 04/01/17 9:38 AM Reply


    • Very nice from the back there Rock Warbler. Seen on here and over at GeeGeez. Thanks.

      Rob 04/01/17 3:42 PM Reply


  • Interested to see how well Bally Gilbert gets on for Pauling in the 14.55 at Hereford tomorrow. Believe this is one he is keen on and that bumper form behind Mount Mews has been well advertised.

    Looked a brute of a horse last time at Cheltenham when i was there, looked fit to my eye but ran no sort of race, though it was a fairly hot race for one so inexperienced. Back in calmer waters tomorrow (though a few unexposed ones in the race from big yards) I’m hoping he runs a big race. Pauling should hopefully have an idea of this ones ability against Jameson who ran 2nd to a Pauling runner in a novice event at Ffos Las last month.

    Opened up at 12’s and a bit of early money it seems as best priced 9/1.

    leon1986 03/01/17 7:07 PM Reply


    • I have Bally Gilbert in my tracker and have had a bet at 11/1. We shall see. I also like Dolphin Village when it runs at Lingfield, also on at 11/1.

      Martin Colwell 03/01/17 7:46 PM Reply


    • Thanks guys. Pauling said he would be disappointed if he didn’t develop into a festival contender (Mark Howard’s book) so he is clearly highly thought of at home.

      Nick Mazur 03/01/17 8:16 PM Reply


  • I got this from you last may
    FREDRICKA

    IDEAL COND. Class 5 or below /OR 80 or below
    FORM 2,2,6,6,1,1,4,1,7,1
    NOTES This horse is on his third trainer already and I find it odd that his last one
    didn’t try and nab a C5 handicap with him – His last win was in a C5, off
    OR73. He hasn’t run in a C5 since then – and that win was on 6/04/15 –
    so, over 1 year ago. His last run was off OR83. He is 0/13,5 places above
    C5 and 0/7,2 places OR81+. Now, he may well win outside of these
    conditions but I will be interested next time he is in a C5 handicap and
    closer or below his last winning mark. He has come a shoulder 2nd, in a C4
    off OR80, so he may not need to drop much – but the class ceiling looks
    interesting RTP 27/05

    mozzer 03/01/17 7:12 PM Reply


    • Ah, good spot. Just had a look- yep she is still in the tracker- not long after that profile was researched he went and won a C4 haha, but now 1/20 at that level on turf. Barron seemed to find some improvement/place her well. 2/5,3 p in C5 handicaps.
      Looks interesting here and I have had a go EW at 8s – is a hold up horse/is tricky, so needs a fair bit of luck, but the trainer couldn’t be in better form, she has run well on this surface the last twice- that last run was after 70 day break and she missed the break. Run before that fine. Drop into C5 looks interesting,as does Mullen back up, 0/5,4p, clearly gets on with her.
      So, plenty there for an interest EW nibble I think. (4.05 Newc)

      Josh 04/01/17 10:11 AM Reply


  • Couple from S.c Williams that are worth a second look today, 1.10 Lingfield Revel and 3.15 Daisy boy. A repeat of last January’s rude form for the trainer would be very nice.

    James b 03/01/17 10:29 PM Reply


    • Both seem to have been backed decently from around 10.15pm tonight. I’m on at small stakes…lets see what happens to the prices tomorrow

      JV 03/01/17 10:59 PM Reply


  • Josh I think Storm Alert win or lose is a good pick, though in the same race I think That’s gonna sting is also in with a chance at 9/1 & then John Jo has one in the race that has the potential, should it be his day.
    Point that may be of interest to breeding fans. In the 1:35 Lin we have a young Frankel filly @ 11/4. Frankel’s on the AW are 5 Runs 0 Wins 0 Places as opposed to Flat turf 61 Runs 22 Wins 33 Placed. The great sires off spring seem to resent been sent out in the winter on AW.

    Gary 04/01/17 6:17 AM Reply


    • Thanks Gary, I think we will know whether we are going to get a run based on the market, gardner rarely/if ever, has handicap winners go off 16/1+ SP, they are a shrews operation at their level. Have had EW go at theirs in the last as well, 16s, hopefully one of them can go in, that would be nice! Albeit strong case made for Keel Haul in that by those above so had a nibble, and also small bet on Bobble Emerald. I will leave that there for that race!
      Good luck with your bets today. Josh

      Josh 04/01/17 8:50 AM Reply


      • Some relevant comments on David Massey’s blog about the two Gardner horses –

        “The opening Amatuer Rider’s contest at 12.55 throws up a few interesting ones. The first to catch my eye was Storm Alert from Sue Gardner’s yard, who has a dreadful win record (just 3-42) but would be more than capable of lifting this if finding some of his better form. He’s very well handicapped on the best of his form but that’s because he simply didn’t show enough last year. His first run this year, a Novice Chase at Carlisle over two miles, was never going to be his thing and merely looked a warm up for this. The yard are in good form and like to land a gamble, so watch the market carefully.”

        “the other end of the card, the handicap that closes it at 3.55 looks a tricky affair. I’m sure that Peruvien Bleu is capable of winning more races once he gets stronger handling – he does seem to rather take the mickey out of his young amateur rider – but should be of interest for the back-to-lay players anyway, having touched 2.38, 2.1, 2.58, 1.6 and 2.4 in the five starts he’s been beaten (of his last six).

        As before, the Sue Gardner trained Rafafie warrants a mention – it’s still early days for him over hurdles and this test will suit. All depends if he’s fit after a break – again, market will guide.”

        https://dailypunt.com/the-beautiful-south/

        Neil 04/01/17 10:41 AM Reply


        • Cheers Neil, yep had a read of that this morning, was pleased to see Dave’s expert eye was drawn to those two as well, as looking interesting. Market suggests Storm isn’t here to run a race but price of the 3.55 runner slowly coming in, so we shall see. He has run well after a break and a big run could be on the cards. Should be fun to watch anyway as all hers seem to be running some sort of race at the moment.

          Josh 04/01/17 10:45 AM Reply


    • For all his bad form of late Storm Alert is still 4th in my ratings…
      That’s Gonna Sting is top.
      Late Shipment looks good but trainer not in form, so a very mixed bag.
      Time for small stakes as Josh says.

      Tony Mc. 04/01/17 12:37 PM Reply


  • Steve no idea how your Super Stallion picks are derived but I find the breeding side interesting and spend hours each day analyzing trainer stats. So to my point on the Frozen Power filly Cold Fusion the trainer over the last 2 years is 30 Runs 0 Wins ) places on the AW and Cold Fusion also as far as I know also never won on the AW? Though now I have pointed this out, I’am sure it’s chances are infinitely better!

    Gary 04/01/17 6:42 AM Reply


    • Hi Gary

      These are sourced from the HRB website breaking down Track, distance and sires to show the best performers so as such all selections are not form or trainer based just purely stallion based to find what consistently a sires progeny “should” enjoy, Of course there are exceptions to this rule but over time this should prove profitable. As for Cold Fusion this is the first time she has these conditions Wolves 1m 1/2F and based on the sire’s stats over this C&D is certainly interesting….Hope this helps

      Cheers
      Steve

      Steve Wiseman 04/01/17 9:52 AM Reply


  • Cartavio in the1.35 at Newcastle must be a good ew bet makes the long journey.had a winner there yesterday

    Courtney 04/01/17 8:10 AM Reply


  • A couple of small EW selections …..3.55 Hereford Conteur D’histoire (H0, R6) a first-time run in a Handicap for Jonjo with Aidan Coleman riding…..fancied Lto but disappointed but has been dropped back 4 furlongs….Sire progeny has preferred this ground and distance in the past….has been pushed to lead in it’s last couple of races and with this big field it might be interesting….or not !

    Ian Jardine fields 2 horses in the 3.35 Newcastle….the more fancied appears to be Newmarket Warrior (H2, R1) @ 6/1, ridden by a 7lb claimer who has had just 1w / 25 rides in public although he keeps the ride after finishing 2nd on this horse Lto

    The trainer’s other horse has nearly similar form ratings but is @ 14/1…..Wahaab (H3, R2), a previous Course winner is ridden by Shirley Teesdale, a far more experienced claimer

    Norman 04/01/17 9:33 AM Reply


  • One more to put up today:

    1.45 Lingfield – Robben 11.0 generally available
    Josey Gordon riding for Alex Dunn 5 rides, 3 wins, 3 places

    First time on this fellow for Josey who is 0 from 25 on flat and AW but has ran consistently well at Wolves over 1M 4F and 1M6F, what is interesting today is the switch to lingfield for the first time as well as the step up to 2M and all rides Josey has for Alex Dunn are interesting

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 04/01/17 10:06 AM Reply


    • Hi Steve,
      Robben lies 2nd in my ratings, but has placed 6 times 0 wins & placed 7 times 0 wins in class on the surface. Has a good % draw.
      Lily Edge is coming back to form, but has a low% draw in comparison.

      Tony Mc. 04/01/17 12:24 PM Reply


  • I would add Bobble Emerald as another selection in the 3.55 Her. A hot race but may be improving and solid each way. Nothing to report from the Gary Moore stable re fancied runners.

    martin colwell 04/01/17 12:39 PM Reply


  • Storm Alert must have ran 4 miles easy…never moved from far outside
    Not sure what to make of it.

    Tony Mc. 04/01/17 2:46 PM Reply


    • Oh Tony, I think we know what to make of that! No money came and I suspected then that is how he may be ridden. I would generously say that they are getting him to peak fitness/taking their time/easing the old boy back in! That was a ‘we will get competitive another day ride’ – I should have waited for market support but somewhat dived in. enter the trackers and get on as soon as prices go up I think. He did cover a lot of ground but ‘ran on’ well enough. Back to exeter, Lucy back on, weak race, prominently ridden, open at 16s, into 3/1 SP, win half the track! Well, we can but hope…

      Josh 04/01/17 2:52 PM Reply


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