FREE DAILY POST: 03/01/17 (complete)

 

Phew. Nice to get a good winner on the board. Paddy Brennan wasn’t  a bad super sub for Fehily. God he gives a horse confidence at a fence, that is the best he has every jumped to my eye and it probably won him the race/ensured he saved energy. After the first 2/3 fences where he jumped well and travelled sweetly just behind the pace, it was never in doubt to my eye that he would be thereabouts at the end. A good start to the year and I will try my best to build on it. It can keep raining solid for the next week for all I care, the deeper the better for me it seems! I just need the TTP stats to pick up, for the pockets of new members if nothing else- after a haul of silly profits they have taken a dip since I launched the Xmas special offer which was bloody typical I suppose, and probably a natural correction. But, if Oct-Dec is anything to go by,they will reward any long term backers. 45/50% are hitting the frame and the winners won’t be far away if that continues.

Onwards…

Tips Summary..

1.15 B- Cabragh 1.5 points win

1.30 M – Golden Investment 1 point win

***

TIPS

1.15 Bangor

Cabragh – 1.5 points win – 5/1 (PP/BetfairS) 9/2 (bet365) (only ones priced up) WON 5/1>11/4

(not sure what price to declare that,cant think many got 5s, maybe 9/2…) (+6.75 points race)

Also the 14/1 forecast – may have had a nibble on both the permutations there, they led 1-2 all the way round! 

 

 

1.5 points may be a bit over-confident but I think given the amount of front running chasers that I have backed to victory, inc during what has been a slump over the last few months, if I am going to be more confident on a horse it should probably be on one I think could make all.

5/1 is more than fair here and I would have him as second fav,3s maybe, or arguably given the ‘been there and done it’ aspect of his profile he could arguably be fav. The trip was too short for him the last day and he wasn’t able to dictate, but he still ran his race. The time before that he somewhat bolted up- the Sam ‘Drake’ England method getting horses well handicapped in novice company – Ali certainly spotted that trend and made sure he got paid a couple days back. Well, at this trip, there really is still a ‘could be anything’ trait about his profile. He could still have plenty in hand and I fully expect England to boot him out in front. Well he better, that is one of the reasons I am slightly bullish about getting a very good run for my money. He stays 26f well so they should. Now, it could be that he beat nothing two starts ago. That is a possibility. This could be how good he is. But, he should have track position and if jumping well/getting into a rhythm he will ask questions of the rest. There are not many other front runners in here- those that have look reluctant to do so/can track, so fingers crossed he can dictate. It will be a long 3m for us backers if he doesn’t. I suppose a slight question over soft but not enough for me to be put off.

5s just looks solid.

The rest… well the Pauling horse is clearly fancied to go well here and he really ‘could be anything’ and I suppose could just be a lot better than these. He will come on for that run as well I suspect. He was held up there and I hope they do that again- if that is the case his jumping will be put under pressure as at some point he will have to close what I hope will be our leader.  He got out-paced a tad the last day (could have been fitness) and if he hits a flat spot here he could stuggle. Heskin does like to ride a chaser close to the pace, but I hope he leaves us alone. Getting into a pace battle with an inexperienced chaser will hopefully dissuade him. I would be mildly surprised if one of these two doesn’t win. Maybe a ‘saver/muggy’ forecast!

Copper Birch has the ability but was poor the last day and has no secrets really. The headgear changes again. I was happy to leave at his price. The rest have too many questions now and I was happy to stay well clear.

These two may trap round 1-2 the whole way. We shall see. Hopefully England can gallop and jump them silly and put the closers under pressure. There is a chance his legs may not go quick enough to get too far ahead of Paulings but we should get a good run for our money back at this distance.

 

1.30 Muss

Golden Investment – 1 point win – 9/2 (BV/Bet365/BetF) 2nd 9/4

…could be just that with any luck. 9/2 looks fair here given this is a weak enough race for this unexposed sort. PACE is the way in again here as he is the only one who ever really likes to get on with it. The fact that Hughes is up must be a sign (and also may be worth noting where Kennedy is,assume Bangor but yet to look) It could be that they have their doubts but he stays well and will give it a good go from the front here. If he gets an easy lead as expected, we could be in business. He has yet to do it over fences but ran ok LTO. He was keen that day and maybe did too much. As such I thought it of interest that he gets the hood here, and the tongue tie- so he is doing something differently. If he leads and it is clear he is settled, going the pace Hughes wants, we should have some fun. 9/2 looks good to my eyes. Lone front runners are dangerous around here and McCain is hitting some form again.

A front running double maybe (that could be asking for too much, but hopefully one can do the business and both give us something to cheer over the last couple)

Of the rest…well Proud Gamble owes me nothing and for the second run in a row is a TTP pick. He could win. 11/4 may be fair. But that was a shocker of a race the last day and this is a tad deeper maybe- well, there was no horse from memory with an unexposed profile like McCains. He is also a hold up horse and is a hostage to fortune if the leader is given too much rope. The capper may just be getting to him now. If the selections falters, he probably picks up the pieces. Formidableopponent’s form ties in with Proud Gamble and they will be close together again. I suppose Dream Flyer is also interesting but he is 10, lightly raced, and has had quite a time off. He is now with Dalgleish though who has a fine record in NH races. Maybe he could go close also, his chase form is ok. WON (no reverse FC this time,damn!) Him and McCains probably look the most interesting. I will take the pace angle though.

That will be all for tips.

 

***

JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – LIVE TEST

Hurdle

2.30 Muss- Moscow Calling 2nd 14/1

Chase

1.15 Bang – Cafe De Paris (11/1< best) UP

 

***

That will be all for Tuesday.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

28 Comments

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  • Hi Josh / All

    Well done today Josh a lovely priced winner to start the year off well deserved..A bit of catching up to do for me with race replays as missed the last couple of days with family commitments but I have the first qualifier for the ” Super Stallions” AW list tomorrow

    3.10 Newcastle – Fastnet Blast 3.0 best odds
    (Betfair Sportsbook / Paddypower /Betway) 6/4 to 7/4 elswhere

    Sire: Fastnet Rock, Track: Newcastle, Distance: 1M 2F
    Record: 7 runs 4 wins 5 places Win SR – 57.14% Place SR – 71.43% SR

    Not great odds to start this off but hopefully with the high overall strike rate a lot of these lower odds will go in and for the purposes of tracking I have taken the early odds available at Betfair sportsbook with Best Odds Guaranteed of 3.0 with the initial stake of £20.00 (i:e 2% of £1000 bank)

    The above selection is purely based on sire data and its optimum conditions but the horse in question is joint top official rated and a clear 1st on HRB ratings and its 1st attempt over this C & D to help boost confidence.

    Managed to catch up on Southwell races yesterday and 2 sire stats to take away from this where Street Cry over 1M 4F and Sea the Stars over 1M. The record of Street Cry over these middle distances at Southwell is very good and we already have him in the “Super” list of 1M 3F & 1M 6F with a record of 10 runs 4 wins 7 places & 10 runs, 5 wins, 6 places so you would assume that 1M 4F would be ideal also..Well Tatting’s performance over the 1M 4F trip certainly emphasised that with an emphatic victory and Sea the Stars is now a perfect 3 from 3 over 1M at the track with House of Commons winning and looks likely to be added to the list also…All good for the future

    Good luck for your selections tomorrow Josh love the confident write up

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 02/01/17 7:25 PM Reply


    • Hi Steve, happy new year to you.
      I have Fastnet Blast way out in front on ratings [famous last words] lol.

      Just a small query Steve. I haven’t got the details in front of me now, but the other day I had a 5/1 winner from Speightstown 7f as it was the nearest distance sire at S/well..it won at 6f and as no other Sire had any history, I backed it and it won.
      Do you have an opinion on that strategy?.

      Tony Mc. 03/01/17 12:04 PM Reply


      • Hi Tony

        Just back home, Well Speightstown’s progeny is effective over 6F at Southwell with an overall record of:
        21 runs, 5 wins, 9 places 23.81% win SR, 42.86% place SR +22.19 so long term profit is there, However with a lower SR comes inevitable longer losing runs the longest so far is 9 and what I’ve tried to do with the “Super Stallions” is minimise the losing runs with a better overall SR. As far as the selection you made if there was no other winning sire in the race then that would certainly make it a stronger selection hope this helps…..

        No luck with Fastnet Blast today just failing to get there looking for a turn of foot to take the race, Unfortunately followed the wrong horse on the far side with the winner coming down the middle and didn’t get the tow until too late!

        Happy New Year Mate

        Steve

        Steve Wiseman 03/01/17 5:35 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh with Morney. I backed it on the basis of the Mann/Fehily combination and it wasn’t until the comments after the race that I found out Paddy had been the very able deputy, and what a ride he gave it.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 02/01/17 8:51 PM Reply


    • Good stuff. Well, I believe they were 1/45 in handicap chases together so not a go to jockey but a significant booking in sense they knew he would go close and wanted top jock on. Suspect given how horse went he would have won on him but relish how aggressive Brennan is on a chaser. The second will pick up a C3 staying chase at some point no doubt.

      Josh 02/01/17 8:58 PM Reply


  • Azure Fly for me is the horse to take from the race

    A summer horse running a blinder on soft, squelchy plumton turf

    Consider him on a very good mark when back on suitable good ground

    Ali 02/01/17 11:18 PM Reply


    • yep an interesting one Ali- I haven’t checked the times or if they back up the fact that was soft, but I have the odd doubt it was that testing – mainly given how well Azure raced, but also fact that they were not massively strung out as much as I would have thought- not like loads were traipsing in out on their feet. But,either way, a decent run by him for sure. He races up there, jumps well, and Charlie will clearly find a race at some point, maybe from Spring onwards…you can be on Azure Fly watch haha.

      Dawson City ran well also, and a case of what might have been at Wincanton you feel on Boxing day when he was well backed – those 8 points would have been welcome as he was a TTP tip and given how he went here, I suspect he would have gone close there maybe. But, he is one to take forward- they should fine a moderate enough staying chase for him and muddier the better maybe. His jumping a bit iffy at times and that may well have cost him getting closer here- but that is what pace pressure does, he had to try and close from further back. He stays, they should race him nearer the pace next time and try grinding the oppo.

      The fav – very very odd run and ride don’t you think? Now, he either couldn’t hold his place on that better ground but he was much closer to pace at Haydock. Maybe he was knackered still, and never ‘felt right’ but Johnson never got after him once and he looked very odd going down that hill on far side twice. Very strange,as if he was holding him together. Odd scrappy jump also. But surprised he was never really asked for an effort or put into it. Odd. Its not like he tried to make an effort and then faded (‘bouncing’ maybe) he just never made an effort. Not sure if there was a stewards but given he was fav, a question should be asked. One to keep an eye on when deep ‘haydock/ffos las’ heavy maybe.

      Wasn’t too much else I dont think. Not sure Onderun stayed,but still ran well enough and could be of interest dropped back in trip NTO. Tizzards was still going well when unseating and looked likely to play a role also, again, that pace pressure putting jumping under pump,surrounded by horses. But, looks like he still has a few wins in him. Decent little race all round.

      Josh 03/01/17 11:58 AM Reply


    • I was thinking the same thing Ali although what Josh said (which makes sense) does temper the enthusiasm a little. Definitely one to keep onside though.

      Nice winner again today Josh. Keep them coming mate.

      Nick Mazur 03/01/17 2:54 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh loved the confidence boost with Morney. My rags did as I thought and lost. Every time I choose to go “public” they run terrible!!! So it is with sad heart and heavy conscience that I put up Cabragh as my best selection for tuesday. SORRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Matthew Roberts 03/01/17 2:32 AM Reply


    • Haha- we all put up many more losers than winners in these parts, that is the value game. Profit counts, nothing else. Well, ultimately,albeit backing donkeys that tail off regularly is not good for the mind!
      You have the same problem when I email out to the list, I don’t think I have sent a winner their way for many many weeks! Seems to be the curse.
      I don’t think even you liking Cabragh will stop him,as he makes all at his leisure. In any case, we have the value, regardless of what he does. 5s, 9/2,4s was a tad generous.

      Josh 03/01/17 9:41 AM Reply


  • Well done Josh I had 14/1 at 365 and nibbled again when he drifted to 16’s.
    Couldn’t believe it when Paddy Brennan was declared jockey! Onwards and upwards!
    Hopefully the doubters will have missed out on that and will no doubt come back giving you grief when the inevitable seconditis kicks in…Keep up the good work!

    Stewart 03/01/17 11:27 AM Reply


    • Haha, well the doubters are welcome, i don’t really care. I back myself with the free tips and I trust myself over time- and I look at betting in 6/12 month blocks really and I have the patience for that- just then controlling the mind- long standing readers can probably sense my mental tipping state through how I write up a race etc!
      Very much back to basics with him- the only proven stayer in the race in decent form, and at a higher level the race before,conditions fine,drop in class,prominent racer,hard fit, double figure price. You can over-complicate it sometimes! I can pick them, just need to get a bit more consistent and may be learn to leave a few more/be more disciplined with staking etc.
      Still, I wont get away from the number of points I have shipped since April, but if I ignore the flat,jumps tips wise, it wasn’t too bad and when you play in 8/1+ territory, the losing runs will hurt.
      We wont get ahead of ourselves but a good start to the year.

      Josh 03/01/17 11:45 AM Reply


  • i have backed DREAMING THE DREAM @ 1000 yes one thousand to 1 today on betfair in muss NHF in 3.30, only paltry 200 with bookies. from one of my online tipsters. if it wins will tell you who. had one race was last of 15 beaten 99 lengths on soft ground, good @ muss today, hopefully is a good ground horse?

    pendrem 03/01/17 11:39 AM Reply


    • Not sure about drinks on you if that comes in Malc, maybe a free bar!! Ground is tricky in NHF races for me- it may be the one sort of race where ability should/can ensure a horse performs well despite hating the going. Suspect if I raced against Usain Bolt and I was running on concrete, him in deep sand, he would still thump me! (for a useless analogy but you get my point!) Still, at that price, not worth over analysing and if you trust the source, good luck!

      Josh 03/01/17 11:49 AM Reply


  • Gary Moore had a winner yesterday, albeit slightly fortunate. Watching brief again today – 1.45 BOD Britannia Bello. O’Brien and Paddy B have a runner today, 2.50 BOD Petite Power.

    Not much today.

    Martin Colwell 03/01/17 12:00 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh well I’m a newby here took up the exmas cheap deal fantastic result yesterday I must say today I’m going with Cabragh and Proud Gamble Regards Al

    alan haig 03/01/17 1:13 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Al- rather annoyingly the TTP stats have taken a dip since that offer! But, if the historic results are an indication then anyone who stays patient will have some fun over the coming weeks. Thankfully the tipping has turned around just as they have dipped! Funny old world. You would have wondered if I had ever encountered a 3m+ handicap chase if you had started reading in May time! Proud Gamble ran well, just bumped into two less exposed types. Still in form.take those two out and he wins comfortably,which possibly means he could win again if well placed against fellow exposed ones.

      Josh 03/01/17 1:49 PM Reply


  • Cabragh You sure can read a good race at times.Prices spot on.Well Done

    mozzer 03/01/17 1:27 PM Reply


    • At times Mozzer, at times!! 🙂 A few more times would be welcome.

      Josh 03/01/17 1:49 PM Reply


  • Back on a roll Josh .. belated happy new year to you and all the other guys !!!

    Kevin

    kevin 03/01/17 1:43 PM Reply


    • Cheers Kevin,you too. nice when a race goes exactly to plan, and got the staking right. Would have taken 1/2 (with him winning) before the day started.

      Josh 03/01/17 1:50 PM Reply


  • Going to put some of me profit on Shotofwine Regards Al

    Alan Haig 03/01/17 2:30 PM Reply


    • Oh i hope you also had something on Landmarque for the members post! Whoosh. ratings pointer horse. Did the job. 14s

      Josh 03/01/17 2:38 PM Reply


  • Oops missed Landmarque top speed rating shotofwine beat when coming down
    Regards Al

    alan haig 03/01/17 2:40 PM Reply


  • 🙁 No I’m a twat still on a profit but hey ho my fault for not seeing it Regards Al

    alan haig 03/01/17 2:47 PM Reply


    • Ah damn. Not to worry. We have all missed winners, and this is a long term game! A very long term game, this season, next etc . That will soon be forgotten!

      Josh 03/01/17 2:49 PM Reply


  • Cabragh won well Josh, I had 4/1 from last night. Also swerved the other tip you gave and so good result all round. Well done and keep it going.

    martin colwell 03/01/17 4:13 PM Reply


  • Cheers Josh, great tipping on Cabragh 5/1, Landmarque 16/1 & Scooby 8/1 EW. 14.5pts up on the day, (+29.5 pts for Jan) keep your positivity it definitely helps your results!

    lately 03/01/17 6:34 PM Reply


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