FREE DAILY POST: 01/01/17 (complete)

Well Happy New Year Everyone! As yet I do not have a hangover/headache, which means one of two things- the gin/vodka was either watered down,or,quite possibly, I am still drunk.  Anfield was rocking for what was a solid, if unspectacular, performance. We appear to have discovered how to defend, which of course means you only ever need to score one. City were awful mind, part us suffocating them, part them just being poor. Anyway, my analysis of football is worse than a non heavy ground handicap chase so let’s move on from that…

***

TIPS

none.

The one thing I am most annoyed about with yesterday is not backing Potters Cross. It was amateur hour again. I can live with backing the rest, no problem there. But what did I not take account of- the drop in class, and how far he and Lamb Or Cod pulled clear of the rest at Chepstow. Also, the idea that the young jockey may be rather smart and not engage in a pace battle, going the speed he wants. He is also a massive stamp of a horse, so clearly the weight was unlikely to be an issue. He was top of the pile of ‘danger’ horses. Anyway, once the rains come let’s hope my form may pick up again. It will all come together in a purple patch at some point. Last Jan we won 90 points in the months,here’s hoping. 🙂

Onto today. I am not going to tip anything as I simply haven’t looked at any races in depth BUT…

well, in the 12.50 – I am going to throw some muggy 5s, maybe 10s, as its New Years Day at LAMB OR COD and A GOOD SKIN… the former’s form was clearly boosted by that run of Potters Cross and I can’t see why he won’t run his race again. A Good Skin drops into C2 and gets first time cheekpieces which given the way he travels then fails to find a great deal, may just do the trick. Both are EW prices for an interest in that race for me. I suppose Racing Pulse and Warrantor catch the eye also – as previous tips. The former brought down the time before. Interested to see how they go. (good job i didn’t go mad there,didn’t expect it to be that soft come race time, given ‘good’ this morning, maybe they watered this week… looked very testing which wouldn’t have suited either main interests in that. where are those pins…) 

Over to the 3.30 Exeter – now, Achimota – I don’t think I am fussed by that weight rise/class rise IF, and it is an IF, he responds to the blinkers again. BUT, I also think he just enjoyed having his mind made up for him and being booted out the front. I think he could get an easy enough lead here if he wants it- IF it is clear he has a lead and is travelling well over the first 2/3, he will out-run a double figure price and while there is a rating/class question, he could go in again. He may tail off, sulk, be ridden after the first, be PU. But, again, for a ‘muggy, I am still tipsy, haven’t looked at the race in much depth,just remember his last run and have checked the geegeez pace map‘ kind of EW bet, he may do!

Right, those will keep me entertained throughout the afternoon along with my ratings pointers horses. Do with that as you please. They will probably all trail in and still be running come tomorrow. A blatant lack of discipline, but I play this game for entertainment, as well as dreaming of that holiday villa the horses may one day pay for! (highly unlikely)

 

JUMPS ANGLES

K Lee Chasers (12/1< guide)

2.00 Chelt – Top Gamble

 

Handicap chase/hurdle portfolio – LIVE TEST

(as yet this hasn’t worked as planned and may need some tinkering- not losing much but not performing as history suggested they might- I could try adding some ‘ratings pointers’ for HorseRaceBase top rated/3, and Geegeez Speed top rated/3, infact I could add those indicators for most systems really and see if that helps.. so H1/H3, G1/G3 (hopefully that is self explanatory) This approach is working very well with the Members Club stats picks and it may help here…)

Hurdle

1.15 Exet – Far West – UP

2.30 Fake- Abbeygrey 2nd / Shinooki WON 5/1 (H3/G3) 

3.05 Fake – Bach De Clermont- UP

Chase

12.50 Chelt – A Good Skin H3 – UP

2.45 Catt – Nauical Twilight 3rd 12/1

 

Southwell Sires (test/track) (14/1< guide)

12.35 South – Things Happen UP H1/G3

2.55 South – Yourartisonfire DNQ

**

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

22 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,
    When you read this the reds will have beaten City you will have had a mega New Years Eve.
    Wishing you the blog and all it’s readers a HAPPY NEW YEAR.
    Update on the BEN Pauling December system
    23 selections/7 winners 144 pts profit at Betfair s.p.
    very inflated by 133/1 winner in PERFECT PIRATE
    still 16 pts profit without the big winner
    not a bad month on the whole .

    regards graham

    Graham Ashford 2 months ago Reply


    • Good work, Graham

      What is this B Pauling system of yours?

      Ali 2 months ago Reply


      • Morning Ali,
        Simple system ALL BEN PAULINGS NON-HANDICAP RUNNERS IN DECEMBER
        certainly did not expect the massive profit
        would have been very happy with the 16 pts
        paid for the xmas presents
        Happy new year to you

        graham

        Graham Ashford 2 months ago Reply


  • Hello all,

    absolutely thrilled that Manwell got the job done today. Thanks for your comments and well done if you followed me in (I’ve put up my fair share of clangers on here so can’t blame you if you didn’t!). The bubbly’s on me tonight!

    Sam England well worth going in the tracker for Hcap debuts and also for stable newcomers. Father Richard Drake was a dab hand at rejuvenating those who’d ‘gone at the game’ arriving from other yards and Sam Drake seems to have inherited that competency with good profits from horses like Attimo, Raktiman and Nicki’s Nipper.

    So look out for horses coming from that yard with those distinct profiles and we’ll hopefully bring in tidy profits in 2017!

    Enjoy your celebrations

    Ali 2 months ago Reply


    • I just had a £10 on Manwell when I read your comment. Only winner of the day but paid for the rest.
      Thank you for an excellent pointer.

      Hugh Fowler 2 months ago Reply


  • Sounds like Josh’s outfit is standard dress for a night out in Liverpool anyway.

    I am off out dressed as Skeletor. If I see He man he will get my Axe. Hence I am doing a bit of study for Sunday today. Had a shocker Saturday on the Horses> Thank heaven for the football.

    Paul Nicholls looks to be set for a good day Sunday.

    Good luck in 2017. This time next year we could all be Millionaires!

    martin colwell 2 months ago Reply


  • Happy New Year Josh!!
    Great winners and happiness in whatever you do.
    Maz

    Marcin Sudol 2 months ago Reply


  • SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND?

    Musselburgh 2.50

    Aristo du Plessis
    Won this race last year
    Got the ground required
    Jockey & Trainer both 15%

    I am happy to take Superb Story; poor run LTO, ran wide; on at
    20/1
    365, BetVictor, StanJames & Betfair
    (I note Sky & Coral are ducking)

    Clavis 2 months ago Reply


    • N/R

      Clavis 2 months ago Reply


  • one for the new year VIENS CHERCHER 1.40 Musselburgh 6/1 was running in graded company over hurdles won a class 3 novice on good going two runs back trainer in form jockey knows is way round the course and tops Geegeez speed ratings happy new year to everyone lets hope its a profitable one
    antony

    antony church 2 months ago Reply


  • Happy New Year everyone! May 2017 be profitable for all here. I am on holiday for the next week in Poland so you won’t hear too much from me. Was way too busy to post today (actually forgot to do Josh’s tips for the first time this year quite possibly). Hopefully some of you remembered that I tipped up Potters Cross at Chepstow when he bumped into one but thrashed the rest of the field in a class 2 and backed him today given he was running in a class 3 off an effectively lower mark and looked the standout bet (in fairness I didn’t think about the weight he was carrying). If Cheltenham somehow avoid the rain I would back his conqueror Lamb or Cod tomorrow however that seems very unlikely to happen. Nice spot Ali btw. (I missed that too)

    Nick Mazur 2 months ago Reply


  • Happy New Year to you all , always enjoy reading your comments ….. Thought i would pass on a good word for White Arm 3.15 Fairy 9/2 …. the consensus is this has been readied for the race again

    Best of Luck for 2017

    Joner 2 months ago Reply


  • Happy new year everyone best of luck .health wealth and happiness .

    jamie2255 2 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh
    I see Venita Williams had a 16/1 BFSP 25.0 winner yesterday ridden by Liam Treadwell,
    are you able to check her runners ridden by
    Liam Treadwell and Aiden Coleman in Handicap Chasers and Non Handicap Chasers
    for all of last season or beyond.
    Wishing you a Happy New Year
    Colin
    PS did Santa bring you a new pin !!!

    colin leafe 2 months ago Reply


    • Cheers Colin. I will have a look. Suspect a way in or two with treadwell and his top level figures may be very good. Blimey. I need more than a new pin I think!

      Josh 2 months ago Reply


  • Happy New Year to you all. Lets hope for more winners than losers.
    I’m still recovering from the match Josh..We should have buried them though. lol.

    There was a good system for Venetia and Liam Treadwell. I used it before I went crook.
    I’ll root it out Josh and post…but it’ll be a year out of date.

    Best of luck to you all.

    tony Mc 2 months ago Reply


  • hi josh, lokks like could be good idea to add H & G

    pendrem 2 months ago Reply


  • further to above, sent too soon, was referring to HCAP CHASE/HURDLE PORTFOLIO.
    + 7 POINTS from 5 bets today

    pendrem 2 months ago Reply


  • Happy New Year Josh and posters
    Took my lad to a very wet chilly Cheltenham today, first time for both of us! £6.50 for a small cheese & tomato panini!!! nearly choked there and then!! On the racing front I managed to pick Shantou Flyer 20/1, Agrapart 16/1 and Cogry 9/2 so managed to pay for the panini !
    The finishes in the races were fantastic and standing on the winning line was such a buzz. The Agrapart finish was a belter after Lami Serge went ahead seemingly full of running only for Agrapart to really battle hard and win in a photo, wonderful jockey strength from Lizzie Kelly.
    The hill is pretty awesome seeing the horses slogging there way up it and the atmosphere was great. The biggest cheer came after Cap Soleil kept the win after a stewards which I guess was a lot of peoples get out stakes coming in! Not mine though!!
    It was pretty busy and I imagine the festival would be shoulder to shoulder everywhere so I can’t see myself ever going for that, but what a great start to the year!!
    Chris

    Chris Albin 2 months ago Reply


    • Blimey Chris some top punting there, yep cracking finishes to those races. Can I have some of your pins haha. Any day you go racing and back winners like that is superb, well done. A great start indeed.

      Josh 2 months ago Reply


  • Thanks Josh,
    I must admit Shantou Flyer was a total pin!! Agrapart was a value hopeful half pin, Cogry a confident pin! We missed the first race and paninied the 1:25!! So 3 out of 5 and some soggy feet ain’t bad. I had anticipated soft going the night before due to the forecast and it was probably heavy for the last 2 or 3 races. At no point was there any good ground.

    Chris Albin 2 months ago Reply


    • Yep i got that ground wrong. BHA site said rain would clear by late morning from clerk update ,and assumed as it was on good that wouldn’t get too soft! Got that wrong. Bit annoyed didn’t go in with Cogry after all non runners etc and it was soft. Always chance hurdles wold do him good and can see why a confident pin. True slogger. Hopefully he can learn to jump fences one day. Will def win a small field chase from front one day hopefully. Big fields seem challenging at moment over fences. Great to see Curtis having a better season and Lizzie was superb in saddle today. Good day to go.for sure, bar the rain!

      Josh 2 months ago Reply


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