FREE DAILY POST: 31/12/16 (complete)

Members Club: if you have any interest in how my ‘ratings pointers’ have been getting on you can read some updated results HERE>>> 

Win SRs around 27%, win|place around 50% and ROIs in the 40-66% range make for interesting reading. It will be rather good fun IF they can be repeated moving forwards.

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KERROW... if you have any interest in developing ‘race reading’ skills then do go and have a watch of his race at Chepstow and today’s race at Taunton. I am slowly getting better and was pleased how this one panned out/how i read his last race. It all rather came together for him as I thought it may do, but 7/2 wasn’t enough to tempt me in sadly. In hindsight that was wrong and a shame he wasn’t 9/2 this morning. Anyway, that is irrelevant. In that Chepstow race they went a crawl, the Nicholls horse dictating such a steady pace. It then turned into a dash for the line over the last few- this benefited those near the front/and those who had a turn of foot. The bunch finish was some indication of the pace also. Kerrorw was mid division and further back than ideal (but his first chase start so understandable they wouldn’t launch him at his fences on the front end) and when the pace lifted he was caught out, staying on nicely enough near the end and not exactly hard ridden. But it took him some time to get organised and speed up. At Taunton he got a stronger pace to aim at, had Hutch on, and they rode him closer to the pace- to ensure he was in the right spot and didn’t have to come from too far back. He was also more experienced. He won it going away really and is one to watch. His hurdles run at Aintree marked him out as more of a staying type. Also great to see Silver Commander step forward and he clearly has handicap chases in him. He bumped into a nice one here I think, and the form could be worth something given his unexposed nature also. The 3rd was a solid yardstick. Given his owner, (Mr Hemmings)I wonder if/when eyes will turn back to Aintree… (he does like a winner there)

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TIPS

1.35 Warwick 

Cheat The Cheater – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) UP

Vice Et Vertu – 1/2 point win – 7/2 (general) UP

Loughalder – 1/2 point win – 14/1 (general) UP

Well that was just awful. No comment. Maybe a fitting end to the latter half of the year. Onto 2017. Loughalder not here to run a race as was held up, Cheat The Cheater never went a yard and the fav was poor. Nothing to cheer from 2f in, and then 4f out. At least Ali lifted the mood, cheers! 

 

My shortlist for this race is listed above and I couldn’t think of a reason not to have something on them all. I have imposed a 2 point limit on any race I tip in now to help concentrate the mind, and for now a limit of 1 point on any horse.

Vice Et Vertu- well he is the most likely winner here for me and 7/2 is more than fair and this bet covers the stakes on the others and just about leaves enough to buy two pints in Liverpool, maybe halfļ a pint in London! The race will be run to suit for this hold up type, he is progressive, and if that last win was a sign they have turned the corner with him there could be loads more to come. Any weight/ratings rise at this stage is irrelevant as we don’t know how much progress there could be to come. Conditions should be fine albeit going LH over fences a slight question. But, the trainer remains ‘in form’ according to the Geegeez criteria and is the only such one in the race. Brennan is on also which is some indication I think. He should be going close and while I could have left him, having him as saving cover seemed sensible enough.

Cheat The Cheater – well I thought this might turn into a right old slog and this one is a dour stayer. There is plenty of pace on paper here, 4/5 front runners, and it looks proper soft, with some heavy patches. It could take some getting and they could be strung out near the end. I thought his style, stamina and his light weight may count for something here. He can get outpaced and a tad detached- that is a danger but he is 12/1, but he seems like a trier most of the time. He should relish conditions and is a CD winner. He also comes here in form, on his third start of the season and could be primed for this. Given he has won around here before, maybe this was an early season target. IF he can repeat his last run he should be in the mix and he is a 3m+ Towcester grinder so should be there to pick up the pieces if many of these hit a wall over the last couple- which is possible. 12s stood out to me here. The jockey booking is odd- well, Popham has ridden him before,so not odd in that sense, but Johnson rode him the last day and is on the Case horse here….

And it could be he is the main danger to these three albeit over 24f, in soft, LTO he ran like a non stayer over fences to me. I think in a race like this stamina is now a question mark. It is harsh judging a horse on that one run but at 6s I wasn’t eager to dive in. You will really need to stay here…

Back to Loughalder… well he is a ‘been here and done it horse’ and he also happens to be a TTP stats pick that qualifies against both ratings sets and those types have shown early promise systematically – I backed him last night EW on that basis and given he ticks every box, I thought he is worth 1/2 point here at his price. He will race prominently and will relish conditions. He may have bumped into a couple the last day/may now peak having had another start. There are a couple of niggles- he doesn’t have a great record in December, albeit it is nearly Jan and from then on is usually the time to catch him. There is also a lot of pace on and if he tries to lead he will feel it come the end I think. Maybe one of them will be allowed to dictate but I am not convinced. But then him racing prominently is a positive of sorts, given the other two will be further back. Stan is on also, claiming 5lb which suggest they think he is a tad high in the handicap at the moment. He isn’t getting any younger either and clearly won’t be getting better. His recent wins arguably haven’t been the strongest of races either. SO, some questions, but 14s allowed a 1/2 point roll of the dice I thought.

PACE.. well Paddy/Basford/Carli/Lough/Sunny can all really trap along on the front end if they wish. They wont all be able to but it should be a well run race and they may all end up doing too much and set it up for the closers, and we have two of those onside. If the leaders don’t come back hopefully Loughalder sees of the others around him. He stays further which will be no bad thing and unlike many in here does arrive in some sort of form.

I should mention a couple of the others. I think the ground is too soft for Twirling Magnet. Sunny Legend is interesting and I don’t know what to make of him- he shouldn’t get an easy lead and I am unconvinced as to his stamina for a trip like this. He ran well on his return LTO so could build on that. He is also 0/9,1p LH, 0/6 over fences and is better going RH from what I can see. He could prove me wrong and is interesting enough but a couple of doubts there which made me leave him- well, pace, stamina,LH were all niggles. The rest seem to have more questions than answers at the moment.

***

On to Newbury…

1.15 Newbury

Blameitallonmyroots – 1 point win – 7/1 (BV/SJ/BetfS) 13/2 (general) UP

Game was up pre race I think when RUK chaps said course was riding good on times, no soft around. Couldn’t hold position, never travelled really. Game over. Needs some soft, albeit maybe wouldn’t have made a difference on the day. Winner can clearly carry weight no problem, and with that running style will win a few more- great ride also from the young man, pulled him back of pace at key stages. 

I started looking at this one last night and at the time this one looked interesting and having looked through again nothing has changed my mind on that front – I think 13/2, 7/1 looks fair enough given she could be open to any amount of improvement over fences and shaped very well the last day. I wondered whether she was just a mud lover before that Ascot run but the way she travelled and jumped suggests not. Sherwood has said once or twice this season that many of his are needing their first run and she ran as such to my eye. She travelled well into it and responded to pressure for a long way up the straight before a tired looking jump at the last. She ran well in 3rd. Hopefully she does come on for it. She should also race prominently, just behind the pace, which is a good place to be and if she travels and jumps like she did at Ascot, should be thereabouts over the last couple of fences. Stamina is a question but has shaped before as if 26f would be within range. She looks both hardy yet unexposed, is fit, and in form. Hopefully she can build on Sherwood’s record in C3 handicap chases at the track,which stands at 2/13,5p the last 5 years.

Of the rest…well it will be interesting to see if the boat that is Yanmare can take this- I fear on this ground, in this class, he may get a bit detached and those in front wont stop/come back/tire like in every other race he has won to date. He is  a fine horse for connections and just may progress again but that sequence will stop at some point. There wasn’t enough there to tempt me in at 9/2. It could all just happen a bit too quick for him. Potters Cross is consistent but even with the claim has much more on his back than some of his recent chase runs. He will try and make all, but there should be pressure from Royal Palladium on that front and like the last day, he is susceptible to something with more in hand. He should run his race though. I think on my maths he has around 15lb more led on his back, in actual weight, from his last run. And he won his other Chepstow race this season off 9-11. IF he copes with carrying it, he will be thereabouts no doubt. But, it should feel slightly different for him- albeit as yet to evidence that he can’t carry weight, just an unknown. Conas Toi- well I fancied him the last day and he was a bit disappointing for me,not really picking up or maybe just not good enough on the day. That was a tough race also and it may have taken something out of him. I was happy to watch him but there could be more to come this season, and a win wouldn’t be a shock if building on that last run. Nothing at bigger prices tempted me in. If Willoughby Hedge hadn’t PU LTO I may be more interested but that was a poor run- maybe an excuse for that I am not sure- ground too soft/needing run. But even so, he does need to step up on his chase form albeit is unexposed enough to do so and King in great form. A couple of questions now though. I couldn’t really have the rest for me.

Pace- Potters Cross and Royal Palladium should be right up there, hopefully pestering each other. The selection should track the pair and with any luck pounce over the last couple.

 

That will do for Saturday. Fingers crossed I can end the year on some sort of high.

 

***

JUMPS ANGLES

T George Handicap Chases (any odds)

(this micro now 61/201,101p, +118 SP, +150 BFSP since start 2010 – 12/43,22p,+22 SP in 2016. Solid) 

12.40 Newb – Some Are Lucky 3rd 22/1>11/1

 

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – LIVE TEST

Hurdle

2.10 War – Bodega

Chase

2.50 Uttox – Rock on Rocky (Poste seems to be riding in the 1.35 Warwick, before heading here…)

 

December Trainer Pointers

2.10 War- Desert Retreat

2.05 Ling – Lunear Deity (14/1< )

 

***

That is all for today.

p.s I believe RUK are having a ‘free to air’  day on the channel,given the lack of terrestrial coverage, if you were not aware. I may have that wrong.

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

22 Comments

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  • Paddy Watch

    This will be the final post,the post has served its purpose:

    The import role a good jockey has on selections,many of the winners we had were nose,shorthead,keeping on when apparently beaten,No Duffer and Theatre Guide,when margins count the and the final fence is approaching you need a jockey who can eke that extra bit,its these close calls where Brennan and Johnson are masters
    Onto tomorrowPaddy has 2 rides for O Brien but realistically there is little point betting on a 100/1 shot(spy in the sky)

    O Brien/Brennan have poor record at Warwick so the selection is in hope rather than confident

    3.25 Warwick Benechenko 1pt win 5/1 Bet365

    So thats it,i will of course be following Paddy in the new year,but it will be more focused rather than blind hope,Would be nice if Poetic Rhythm could win at Cheltenham on Sunday,our first winner

    If you had a winner from reading that you would not normally have selected well done
    To Josh and all the readers and contributers Wish you all a Happy and Prosperous New Year
    Taking a week off to clear the head,i might even think up something for a new post

    Keep the faith and keep Paddy onside

    gerry 2 months ago Reply


    • HI Josh and all!….Wishing you and all of your families a hearty, healthy and prosperous new year.
      As my father used to say. ”may your shadows never grow shorter” lol.
      Some of the contributions and contributors have even changed my way of thinking……so I think 2017 will see me personally ditch that which no longer serves. it’ll be the head that rules and not the heart.
      Best of luck to all of you my friends.

      Tony Mc.

      Tony Mc. 2 months ago Reply


  • 2 chances for the new hurdles/chases portfolio to get into profit before the years out. Not sure about you Josh but I have backed em all and am currently approx 8pts down. Not a big dent in my own profits fortunately and still a fair way to go yet. However I suspect they are going to be like most systems, relying on one big un to come in to make it profitable. If is doesn’t happen most systems either flat line or make a small lost imho fingers crossed for 2017 🙂

    jim 2 months ago Reply


    • Yep tricky Jim, we shall see. they are under-performing against the research in that a lot of angles were around 30% win SR on paper, and that hasn’t materialised. Maybe I need to add some sophistication as with the ratings pointers in the members club. They don’t have any odds caps and I suspect the odd one may have relied on a big one going in but that historical SR clearly hasn’t been repeated. I haven’t been backing them all, more watching to see how they go. I do back some of the more long standing ones, such as the Tom George angle. I will updated results in due course and clearly need to have a longer think about how to make those work better. 8 points down is far from disastrous and one winner away from profit. So, maybe with some fine tuning they could improve. We shall see if they hit a purple patch or not.
      Not holding out much hope for a donation haha 🙂

      Josh 2 months ago Reply


  • Sam England (Drake until recently) is flying under the radar

    She saddles Manwell in the 1.05 Uttoxeter who will hopefully adhere to the England blueprint of tailing off in all novice runs before winning on handicap debut

    25/1 Sky

    Ali 2 months ago Reply


    • I can’t remember when I last saw a gamble to this extent. 25/1 last night and it was 16/1 and 20/1 in a few places at 10ish. Best price now 3/1.

      Neil 2 months ago Reply


      • Earlier in the year 40s into 11/2s by a trainer called Sam Drake lol

        James b 2 months ago Reply


        • Wallop!! Nothing Fawlty about that performance. (grabbing my coat)

          Josh 2 months ago Reply


    • Nice Ali, that was some gamble, my only regret I only had 0.25 pt EW at 18/1. Cheers.

      Djic 2 months ago Reply


    • Excellent selection….Thanks very much, managed 16/1 this morning…well worth the knowledge seeing this one…Great Stuff

      Norman 2 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh et al,
    happy and prosperous new year to all. Would like the indulgence of putting up my own method qualifiers on this blog to help concentrate my own easily distracted mind. Without jinxing these methods there has been a good return this season.
    Newbury 12.40 Aurillac
    Uttoxeter 12.05 Ultimate Dream
    Uttoxeter 1.40 Pure Vision
    Warwick 1.35 Vice Et Vertu

    All Of the above are to my eyes ahead of their marks. These are the “best” qualifiers in my mind which means the following are probably going to win instead: Yanmare, Knockgraffon, Mercian Prince and Mumgos Debut.

    Matthew Roberts 2 months ago Reply


  • Todays bookie bashers…12.40 Nb Aqua Dude…going over a suitable distance now and can show his potential; I also Like Blameitallonmyroots in the 1.15 Nb; Robin Roe to sluice up, 1.50 Nb and one at Lingfield, 3.15 Indian Affair. Job done.

    Good luck all.

    martin colwell 2 months ago Reply


  • PS re Gary Moore stable being out of form, Rydan goes at 22/1 in the 2.40 LP. May be a price if the horses are finding some form?

    martin colwell 2 months ago Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    A busy couple of days and a bit late putting this one up today and the price has gone a bit…..

    Lingfield 12.55 – Sufragette City 6.5 now 4.0 best odds 4.33 (Lads)

    A weak looking Class 6 maiden and a 9 race non winning filly drawn 11 doesn’t inspire confidence so why her….Well its 7F on Polytrack and she is bred by “Dragon Pulse” so immediately that grabs my attention, On closer inspection she has has only 2 runs on AW one at Kempton over a mile which so far has proved too far for the sire and once over this distance on Tapeta at Wolves running a respectable 2nd off 73 now rated 66 which is still top rated for those that have run. With the lack of experience in the race the draw shouldn’t be an issue and the trainer has the best record of these in the last 2 years in maidens at the track. The dam is bred by the sire of “Green Desert” another 7f specialist and with the first try at the track over 7F I see this one running over the 70 mark which should be good enough to take this.

    Also interested to see how the 2 x “Saddler Maker” horses go today this sire has had a great start with over a 20% SR for all runners with 6 of last 16 going in

    1.50 Newbury – Mesire Des Obeaux 5.1 & 2.25 Newbury – Cepage 2.88

    Good luck with your selections today Josh I will follow you in on the Warwick race and a good end to the year

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 2 months ago Reply


  • 13:15, Newbury
    trainer said a few encouraging words Josh
    Oliver Sherwood
    Blameitalonmyroots
    Sat 31st Dec 2016
    She ran a great race last time and unfortunately picked up a slight injury. She has been in tremendous form since and is in tip top order at home. I’m hopeful of a positive run – looks a nice e/w price.
    4 stars

    alan haig 2 months ago Reply


  • Loughalder in the 13:15 is top rated in the other ratings I use but certainly has enough weight to carry Vice Et Vertu looks the most likely winner to me and is green on the rating sheet

    alan haig 2 months ago Reply


  • Manwell. Brilliant Ali. On at 16,s. Cheers.

    Michael Murphy 2 months ago Reply


  • Josh…..commentator’s comment…..

    “Not even a bunch of enthusiastic reindeer could pull Loughalder along from that position”…..nearly tailed off at the time !!

    always next time, wait and see…

    Norman 2 months ago Reply


    • Oh Norman, that was an awful 25 mins, a somewhat fitting end to an awful latter half of the year. Loughalder wasn’t there to run his race, likes to be up there on the pace. Cheat The Cheater well- never went a yard, is a risk with him but that was just poor. Fav maybe not good enough. Not sure if that was as soft as I thought either, much like Newbury. Maybe I will wait for some proper soft/heavy ground to see if that can spark a revival, and I am clearly struggling on better ground.

      Josh 2 months ago Reply


      • Hi Josh….

        only for Ali’s brilliant spot earlier I would be down in the dumps today but luckily that makes it 3 winning days in a row and still 2 more races to go……but then I need to get it together for the match later……I was hiding behind the couch for some time before they equalised the other night…..might need something stronger for this match, but City can fall apart very easily when it goes against them….and with the Ref being a “show the card” for any infringement type of official…..just hope he keeps a good firm grip or sends off plenty of City players

        Norman 2 months ago Reply


        • When have we fallen apart? Chelsea, ok, but we were superb most of the match, and a sense of injustice festered. Leicester, we were 2-0 down after 5 mins, so you can’t say we fell apart when things weren’t going well! The only other league game we’ve lost is at White Hart Lane. Let’s hope for a decent game, and 22 players on the pitch at the end (doesn’t always happen with us at Anfield, mind).
          Paul

          blueboy199 2 months ago Reply


          • Paul…

            you have answered your own question in some ways….they have been beaten by 2 clear goals or more, a couple of times…Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea & Leicester…but some of these results go back 18 months

            But I know City are a good side so why do you think I will be watching the match from behind the couch…..I am not at my best watching Liverpool on TV, passing back to the goalkeeper and making monumental cock-ups trying to pass their way out of their own penalty box….it’s very scary TV for me

            Norman 2 months ago Reply


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