TTT Jumps Notes: 29/12/16 (complete)

 

KELSO

1.05

Raise A Spark (all hncps + micro… runs this season) Up

NOTE: McCain 0/19,5p last 14 days and possible yard could be going off the boil. I suppose more lively ground an unknown for this one,his best form to date been in deep ground. But, he is lightly raced and in great form, still open to improvement. Hard to rule out to my eyes.

 

Medal of Freedom (hncp hurdle) UP

NOTE: trainer (Medal of F) 3/11,6 places with handicap hurdle debutants last 2 years also. Trainer 1/10,2p last 14 days so not exactly out of form, nor in red hot form either. I wouldn’t let that put me off personally. IF this one has been running for a mark then his recent form could mean very little. We shall see if that is the case, or he just isn’t very good! I won’t be putting myself of ratings pointers horses.

 

1.40

Turtle Watch (hncp chase) 30 2nd 

NOTE: as yet no speed rating for this horse on my geegeez cards. ratings for others so could be he just doesn’t have one or may be updated later. Horse having only his 2nd chase start so unexposed in this sphere. Yet to be asked a question when fell 5 out last time- too far out to know how close he would have gone. Certainly given that ‘could be anything’ profile you wouldn’t be shocked were he to run a good race, if jumping well.

 

3.20

Craig Star (all hncps) UP

NOTE: McCain again. He is ‘only’ 3/38, 13 places with stable newcomers from other yards in last 2 years. Young jockey only 1/49 in career to date, that win over hurdles. Market may guide as to fitness. Only 12th hurdle start and could be more to come at some point. Only really raced on ‘good’ officially so how he handles any cut a question, but good to soft shouldn’t be a major inconvenience you would hope. Horse at least knows how to win.

 

Zaru (hncp hurdle) UP

NOTE: Trainer 0/20,6p last 30 days, again possibly having gone off the boil. Horse a better chaser but a CD winner I believe. Has looked out of sorts but only had 5 hurdle runs. Not getting any younger mind.

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DONCASTER

2.40

Ami Desbois (all hncps + hncp hurdle) NR

NOTE: Mcpherson 2/12,4p last 14 days so going well enough. Horse is unexposed in handicap hurdles and won his last handicap well, from one who then went and bolted up NTO at Bangor. Given races he has been tried in they clearly like him/think a lot. Interesting how he goes here but looks like should run a big race.

Ten Sixty (all hncps) UP 6/4

NOTE: Hobbs not firing as he was, 2/33,8p last 14 days but odd one has gone well enough to suggest not THE reason to necessarily be put off. Horse is unexposed and steps up in trip – stamina a question/unknown.

 

3.10

Willoughby Hedge (all hncps + hncp chase + micro… distance) 14,30

NOTE: trainer in form, horse unexposed over fences, CD winner. PU LTO raises questions. Could be he doesn’t relish very soft ground and he may have also needed the run. IF they are the excuses, rather than a problem, he could run a big race given that profile, on this forecast better ground. Class 3 a question but too early to say he is a ‘class 4 chaser’.

 

3.40

Awesome Rose (all hncps)  14,30 2nd 

NOTE: Another unexposed one who may have needed her last run. Hard to rule out really, early days.

Clemency (hncp hurdle) 14,30 UP

NOTE: tad more exposed than some but running ok- albeit you would think needs to improve on that last run, not 100% sure why she would- maybe a flatter finish might help, no Leicester hill. Trainer in decent form but does need to improve from somewhere you would think, but that is my subjective view. That’s why we have the ratings to help…

 

***

RATINGS POINTERS (+ trainer form)

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

2.40 Donc – Amir Desbois 

Top 3

1.05 Kel – Raise A Spark – UP

3.20 Kel- Craig Star – UP

2.40 Donc – Ten Sixty – UP

 

Geegeez Speed 

Top Rated

2.40 Donc – Ami Desbois

Top 3 

1.05 Kel – Medal of Freedom – UP

2.40 Donc – Ten Sixty

 

** I think we have only had 1 horse top rated on both HRB+Geegeez since the ratings pointers were introduced and that was Proud Gamble who bolted up at 3/1. We shall see if Ami Desbois can follow suit ***

 

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Note from two days ago, as a reminder…

TRAINER FORM…

I use the racecards in GEEGEEZ GOLD and they have ‘trainer form’ pointers. (used for speed ratings also)

A 14 by a trainer’s name indicates in the last 14 days they have had 5+ runners with either a 20% win strike rate, OR a 51%+ place (inc wins) strike rate. 

A 30 by a trainer’s name indicates in the last 30 days they have had 10+ runners with either a 20% win strike rate, OR a 51%+ place (inc wins) strike rate.

I will add such ‘14′ or ‘30‘ next to the horses name. You may find that useful, you may not. Trainer form is a funny thing and if I like the price of a horse I wouldn’t necessarily let it put me off- maybe more to be used to give you added confidence to any runner, or highlight those you may want to have a closer look at. Or ignore them. They are an added benefit and I will try and keep track of how and ‘ratings/trainer in form’ pointers get on.

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

5 Comments

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  • Rating’s being used as filters is the correct way to go, i have been using stats in this way for some time, before joining up i had taken your ideas and applied it to the AW using the similar template OPEN Age handicaps, really strong results to date ill post up when i have conclusive longer term results.

    jeffrey 28/12/16 4:15 PM Reply


    • Hi Jeffrey, yep I agree, takes the anguish out of subjective judgement also – can then, if wanted, just judge how you wish to play them etc. Certainly cuts out a lot of dross.

      In Jan I will be pondering my approach for the flat which will include trainer stats and the ratings pointers- just a question of what stats to focus on in the flat guide. Also summer jumps. If you are not in the trial you should have access to the AW stats pack- i will never stop Members posting up such qualifiers/ratings in the comments 🙂

      That is a way away yet, Jumps needs to fully prove itself but in theory it should be exciting. Any suggestions for ‘stats areas/ideas’ always welcome.

      Josh

      Josh 28/12/16 6:47 PM Reply


  • I do not like being critical but Josh are you and all your different blogs for real. i know i have only been a free trial member for three days but you haven’t even got close yet. Some of you reasons for selecting a horse just beggar believe.
    McCain going of the boil when was he ever boiling then.
    Like very much to stay on after this free trial but its difficult, please show you know something about horse racing rather than just giving waffle.

    Keith Tibbett 29/12/16 3:45 PM Reply


    • You can be as critical as you like Keith and you have been polite. That’s all I ask. You do give the impression that you haven’t invested any time in understanding how selections on these posts,all posts, are derived at. If you missed the welcome email /notes in will post them up again.
      On here are trainer stats picks from my stats guides. The ratings pointers use two ratings sets to try and home in on those with the best chance. That is where I would focus for now. The historical results over the last 13 weeks are fine and so are first 16 days or so of ratings pointers.
      I will update all results next week. I would paper trade for the trial or bet small. Knowing my luck having had a great run we will probably hit a wobble. That’s betting. Did you miss the 9/1 and 3/1 winners on 27th post? And the placed horses. Boxing day was naff but that showed the potential/consistency. Stick with it for duration and make a judgement. But please do want to understand how selections are derived . While some days I would just be better throwing darts there is plenty of logic/stats behind this approach. Maybe it isn’t for you. Josh

      P.s. Bar the objective stats mentioned in the NOTES the rest is subjective opinion that you may find of interest or just waffle. In part again that is why the ratings pointers were introduced.

      Josh 29/12/16 4:25 PM Reply


  • No constructive criticism then Keith ? Just waffle

    shek2nd

    shek2nd 29/12/16 4:06 PM Reply


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