FREE DAILY POST: 28/12/16 (complete)

complete…

No content for Wed 28th. There are no jumps angles and I am tempted to not touch another 3m+ chase for a while/until I have reflected and formulated a plan.

I will be backing Golden Investment in the 2.45 as he is a TTP stats pick, top rated Geegeez Speed and Top 3 HRB. I won’t be over thinking that one too much.

I have read and absorbed all comments made re my tipping. Some didn’t hold back on twitter either. I could discuss plenty but I don’t have the energy and the blunt truth is that the ‘bread and butter’ tipping isn’t good enough. And I am my own worst critic so you can comment away but you won’t ever be more critical than I am of myself. Albeit reading such things is useful for me and I really dont mind. I need to improve. You can only say that for so long – at some point you do have to get better. Big Races using stats/trends are what they are. There was a chance Native River would do that as discussed and that stats approach- the same one, inc the profiling, has found the Becher winner x2 33/1 last 3 years (and the 20/1 nose 2nd this year on shortlist) The shortlist found the Hennessy winner and the 2nd /4th in Caspian Caviar Gold Cup. At ‘The Festival’ the stats/trends shortlist of 4/5/6 horses found the winner in 8 of the 10 20+ runner handicaps. Oh they found Mountainous on this blog also when he won Welsh National the first time at 20/1. That is my approach in those races – they are not the problem. (well, the stats/shortlist approach isn’t, clearly my tipping from that needs some work also but those winners will be found over time with any luck) It is everything else that is, the ‘normal’ races. My Jumps tips are +79 points up for the year (-8 in December now) but they hit a high of 138 points and at the end of main jumps season were on +124. So, it is a bit of a decline at the moment. Much for me to ponder. Clearly I am not as good as I thought I was and I need to educate myself a bit further/come up with a better approach. That will come. There are enough glimmers of hope, but too many shockers. I have said that too many times. It was about time I tried to do something about it. Maybe I just need heavy ground 🙂 (albeit being a one ground trick pony wouldn’t give me much professional pride) I may have just had a flukey run earlier in the year and am now being found out. But, I will improve at some point. The puzzle will be solved.

***

Back with Thursday’s post at some point.

***

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. I was going to ask what the profit / loss total is for the whole year. So you’re +79 for the year, that’s all for free and people are moaning. I think I know who has the problem if those are the facts. That also doesn’t take into account the extra value provided by the blog and those who contribute to it.

    1. I don’t mind the moaning / critique. I mean if you started following from May you would have your doubts. I did lose 23.5 points or so on the flat also. So free tips wise it isn’t the end of the world but some will rightly feel agrieved. I also don’t have years of live results etc whereby you would have confidence that it will turn around at some point. That is fair enough. Part of it is just a fact of punting. When your average price winner is around 8/1 that means many dark,lonely punting days. But too many haven’t run well enough. Too many duds. But we will be fine over time. But I could be doing better . A handful of winners and a couple around the 16s 20s mark will lift the mood!!

  2. Get yer head up Josh !!

    Been here before and bounced back –
    Shocker again today but there was an exceptional horse in the race just like the King George.

    Back to basics – Give yourself a few days off and bounce back 1st January

    Keep the Faith !!!

  3. Keep going Josh. What makes this site versus others is the educated perspectives from all contributers, and you are the catalyst. I picked 2 lousy horses for the race, and I’m not sure many on here thought Native River would win off top weight, let alone pick those who came 2nd to 5th at 25 or 33/1. Just one of those races. Nachi Falls for me at 7s or 8s in the last if Leicester goes ahead – think his mark is very decent and form franked again at Chepstow today. Worry is the ground but might just firm up.

  4. Evening all,

    Pobbles Bay won relatively easily and I think could still have more in hand. Otago Trail reminded me why I should stay away from Irish racing.

    Josh, I can’t comment about any of the other races you’ve tipped in (although happy to help in analysing them if you want) but I dont think there was anything wrong with your Welsh National picks today. Everyone here knows that backing the short odds favourites in such races leads to the poor house but they will occasionally do what Native River did today. He was followed home by 3 33/1 shots and a 25/1 shot. I cannot find a way a way I could have backed any of them. I think you could make some sort of a small case for Vicente who finished in 6th but thats the best I would have finished. I dont think anyone else who’s opinion I value tipped any of them either. So its just one of those races which will happen sometimes. The only question I would possibly have is whether it was a good idea to throw 5 points at a race ran at different conditions than usual.

    Moving on to tomorrow I think Varsovian has a decent chance of returning to winning ways. He is now 7lbs lower than his last win and has a record of 3/6, 4p over course and distance. he hasn’t been far away on his last 2 runs however he would have needed the run 2 starts ago and last time he raced over an inadequate 7f. Confident of a good run. I also want to have a small e/w bet on Hartside who is out agian 2 days after I tipped him up on Boxing Day. Its a plus that he is out agian so quickly given the horse has thrived on returning within 7 days and he has yet to run a bad race at Leicester however this is a much tougher race so I am less confident of a win. At least it means we get a decent price agian.

  5. Urrggghhh, mega brains again today

    Not your fault, mind, Josh. I know for a fact you’re far from the only one suffering a slump lately. Plus, I would’ve played the Welsh National just as you did

    1. And besides, as many people have said, the blog is second to none in terms of punting armoury – it’s still top of my racing bookmarks!

      The Josh of Jan-Feb 2016 is waiting in the wings, Im sure! Here’s too a blinding 2017 of punting (and a decent rest of 2016 wouldn’t go amiss!!!)

  6. Highs and lows in this game, as we all (should) know Josh. The highs will hopefully be around the corner. On what i would hope is a constructive note, the only feedback I would give from a personal view is with regard to multiple tips in a race. Unless there is a specific desire to take on a weak favourite with a couple of darts, I never like playing that approach, even in big fields with 4+ places. I know it works for some (Nick Hardman, anyone?) but it can make the lows even lower when you’re chucking 5 points at a single race. Without a false favourite taking too much out of the market, you’re gonna find it increasingly difficult to find value the more selections you choose. Yes, you’ll miss some winners, but you’ll miss a hell of a lot more losers.
    Keep your head up, mate.
    Paul

  7. I am 68, Josh, and I am still learning. I enjoy everything about the site and all the members contributions. It makes racing more enjoyable and in the end you listen to all advice and make your own decision. Don’t get downhearted and may the horse be with you.

  8. I was not having Native River at the price and the weight, so I got that one wrong. The Tizzard factor is strong these days. As the Moore stable are out of form and so is Gay Kelleway I cannot fall back on them. Messrs Skelton and George are worth watching in the next week perhaps?

    2017 is a new year and stats and performance can start again. New start and new adapted approach perhaps?

    My bread and butter is English football and Golf and its a lot easier than horse racing. I always try to learn and improve but i will likely never get there.

  9. Hi Josh
    A 71 yrs old punter here been betting on the horses for 57yrs,
    and believe me lad this must be the 1st year i’ve finished with a profit,
    so no matter what i’m happy with a 79pts PROFIT
    Keep your head up it will turn around.

  10. Paddy watch
    A great start today with The Worlds End wining and then zilch,still 2.5 pts profit on the day,as the say on bullseye heres what you could have won +55 pts or so if you had followed all the bets to date.
    On the subject of peaks and troughs in racing after a great Sept and October,my betting bank was in the doldrums even with Paddys successes for about 7 weeks.
    I was picking 2nds and thirds and fallers,picking a trainers first string and leaving out the outsider(which won) too many times,what keeps you going is doing the same things that brought you success over and over,we have betting banks to take account of these highs and lows,when you are backing 10+prices its just the nature of things that you will have long fallow periods and they do tend to come in clusters,couple of big price winners one day and your up 30-40 pts,or weeks of bouncing along the bottom

    Paddy has one qualifier tomorrow but its trading at 66/1 but the system is the system and therefore

    2.35 Leicester Im Still Waiting 1/2pt e/w 66/1-if this wins i will be looking out for the flying pigs tomorrow

    1. The Worlds End was 14.0 on BF last night ! Don’t know what it was this morning but the SP made me smile even wider!

      Chris

  11. Josh – it sounds to me that you’re a bit down n the dumps with the way your tipping has been lately, now I know your a lot smarter than me but I find consoling myself for a few days with dull and boring stats like expected losing runs and drawdowns sometimes helps me see the picture a little fuller or from a different angle and takes some of the worry away. Sometimes a break for a day or two helps. Hope that makes some sort of sense.

    Chris

  12. I’ve followed for a while and have seen the great results produced. I’ve also followed Horse racing when not a fan hoping for a quick ££££. It doesn’t happen and if that’s what your looking for then hand over your money as that’s where it will lead of you throw money at it constantly. You have to be selective and take heed when the advice is given. Good days and bad days are a certain but your own knowledge on what to look for is also key. Josh is pointing us in the right direction but he can’t be right always. Be smart with your bets, if your not sure then back the selection with the favourite incase the rfc comes in. Don’t knock someone like Josh who has been studying this for a long long time with good results. If you can do better then good luck to you. If not choose carefully on your bets, don’t bet every day and have a bet bank as you can quickly forget why your started following and betting. Long term profit is key so remember that. Gl all Tony

  13. Excellent price Chris.I will pull down the curtain on this at years end,been a good run,the bookies are taking note of the O brien stable now and adjusting accordingly,i will be taking a week out then to clear the head and not read a racecard,just watch and enjoy the sport for what it is

  14. A quieter day tomorrow so I have looked at a couple of horses at decent prices

    1.10 lINGFIELD Swot 7/1 Generally
    Teal always has a few winners here and had winner over jumps 26th so might be about to hit form

    3.40 Leicester Favourite Girl 18/1 Bet365
    Positives
    Appleby 3-5 with hurdlers at course
    Conditions should be favourable and she has course winning form
    Drops down in Grade
    Negatives
    Had poor run to overcome lto after stormer at Ascot
    Dont know if 7lb claimer will be a plus or negative
    I will be having small ew interest

  15. Hi Josh

    I doubt that this will cheer you up, but I follow Dr Nick Hardman’s Festival tips and he’s been 0 out of 14 over the last 2 days (28 points down!). Not even a place with his EW tips – It happens to the best of them.

    In terms of learning points to today, I think that one lesson could be to recognise when it isn’t a typical year for a race like the Welsh National. The ground was a lot quicker than usual and the bottom weight was 10-10 which meant that the a lot of weight carrying stats could be torn up. Plus you have an exceptional horse in Native River which could potentially be a Gold Cup winner in March.

    All this has been written with perfect 20:20 hindsight!!

    Anyway look on the bright side – at least you didn’t have a sizeable wedge on Might Bite. It’s taken me more than a day to calm down about Daryl Jacob’s tactics – not that I’m talking through my pocket!!!

  16. Josh; some of us will recall last December-March when you were tipping winners for fun and at big prices.

    I wrote at the time that there were 3 stand out big race Tipsters and there still are and you are still one of them, the fact is form is temporary and class is permanent. Interesting to note that the other 2 in my portfolio are Dr Nick who has had a great 2016 but not so good yesterday as pointed out above and the other SP2A Elite has achieved a 30% ROI in 2016 and like a few others on the Racing Index has done well and the proof is in the proofing. I proofed those 3 on my own system/spreadsheet btw and you still compare favourably at advised prices with Dr Nick and you are better at advised with him whilst I proof SP2A to BSP hence their 30% roi from BSP as they don’t advise prices as such and rely on BSP returns.

    I will retain the faith with you and think others should, those who have been with you for 12-18 months certainly will I’m sure, as for any “get rich quick merchants” well, frankly I don’t give a damn about them and neither should you and any who abuse you frankly not worthy of your time.

    I do wonder though that as this blog has grown and with it your output, are you spending time you used to spend on form analysis on website/admin work, could that be a factor??…just a thought.

    In closing I wish you and all of the regulars a very Happy New Year and I’m sure that we will soon see a steady flow of winners and as said earlier the TTP/Main stats alone are outstanding as are some of the excellent form analysis and news from the hardcore contributors on here, to whom I also say a BIG thank you and happy new year.

  17. Hi josh
    Been a member for 12 months.what I’ve learned on this site has been invaluable.i started 3 years ago matched betting building up a bank for football but found myself betting on horses with very little interest.until I found first Ben aitkins site and then Josh’s.im now a horse racing fan watching sprintre scare last year was pure joy and thistlecrack on Boxing Day highlights for me.this site is nothing but honest the content helps you not just place a bet with no reasoning but it allows you to follow the tips or make your own opinion if you like.any one who joins a site and bets big day 1 and leaves is a fast buck fool with money to burn.you can never please everyone.i avoided the race yesterday because I didn’t think native river would lose ( my opinion) but he was too short in the odds (as advised) .i followed Boxing Day but a couple of the members recommended leaving it bad gut feeling (me also).today I’ve followed on golden investment if you took odds last night you could trade out now for the free bet (low risk) or let it run (trust josh).if your new to this site please start slow read everything it’s always a good read.if you want quick bets fast wins no thinking this isn’t for you.josh is one of the good guys in a world of people just trying to take your money.use the 21 days trial wisely I’m sure you’ll stay for more .i would pay the membership just for to help me learn alone without the betting.
    Keep it up josh 2017 will be a corker

  18. Anyone who took the 66/1 on Im Still waiting could probably lay a bit off on the exchanges 40/1 33/1 and 20/1 in a place now or wait for the flying pig

  19. Hi Josh,
    As most people know on this site this is a long game.
    With stats and trends there is always one that breaks the rules(NATIVE RIVER)
    Keep the faith head down and come out all guns blazing.
    Have faith in yourself, do not doubt.
    Wishing you a great 2017.
    My day would be very sad without this site to read every morning

    1. Cheers Graham, yep my head is still high. Chance I have felt a tad run down at times, eps last few days- the Festive launch and sheer volume on Boxing day, was a tiring affair! I may consider taking boxing day off next year in terms of ‘tipping’ and save energy for 27th. Xmas eve/Xmas Day/Boxing Day didn’t feel too different from a normal working day in the end! (bar a lot more food and wine)

      You don’t need to worry about this blog going anywhere!
      Josh

  20. Hi all, thanks for all of your comments.

    (firstly there is no pity party going on here, and I should stress again that criticism is welcome,and always will be, I have no problem with that. the only time I ever get quite annoyed is a) if you are rude about it b) ever question my integrity – the latter one makes me more angry than it should. I don’t want people to feel they can’t have a pop, in the right way, it all adds to the experience and is needed from time to time )

    Some other points…

    – Welsh National… I think I may have been trying to bulldoze my way into form and that is clearly idiotic. I knew/had the feeling that Native River could do that- you have to have the long term mindset of taking any 3/1 shot on in a race of that nature, but fear of him should have led to a more cautious approach, probably 2 points max.

    -a wider staking point – some have raised this before but as yet I don’t think I am that great at judging when to ‘unload’ more than 1 point on a horse, even EW. I need to go back to basics with a few things I think but sticking to 1 point win bets, max 2 points on any race, may be no bad thing for a while. Maybe having X amount of points in the bank has made me a bit too bullish, cutting corners, being lazy.
    -there is a general conditions point- I do want to get through another Jan-April period before being too harsh on myself – albeit me of that period this year I think would have backed the 20/1 Gordon winner at Winc and the Barton Gift 16s>28s at Bangor. Reading those write ups makes me cringe, you can’t write/think what I did about those in context of price and not back them! (that 48 points would have been welcome) Maybe decent jumping ground does just make those races harder to assess- the pace, not getting as tired/mistakes not as costly,races run more ‘to form’ where profile for conditions, is not so important. Heavy ground chases for me are more about how you handle conditions/jump/stay than anything else- and that ‘profile for conditions’ has always been my starting point, and there are clearly gaps in my ability to ‘read form’ – which in the muddy chases last Dec-March wasn’t a massive consideration. If you don’t handle heavy/stay 24f+ in it, you don’t handle it. And when you looking at races without Native Rivers in them, C3/4, who you have beaten,ratings etc, can mean sod all. When ground has ‘good’ in it somewhere, maybe that has added a level of challenge I have yet to adapt to.

    – there is a general point also that summer jumping/Oct/Nov are a tricky time for punting anyway, for numerous reasons. ESP when attacking a race ‘cold’ – maybe we just stick to Sept/Oct trainer pointers and VW november next year! (prob around +90 points between those over that 3 month period this year) And finding winners of 20+ runner, C2+ handicaps isn’t meant to be easy and you wont find many of them, but at the prices,should do ok over time. It is the mon-friday fare that needs to pick up.

    – there will always be write ups- so , even if the tips are out of form, hopefully you get something from those/they help you find the actual winner! I would hope there is some value in those, even if the form takes a dip. Part of that dip is a natural correction from Dec-March which was a but mad, esp Jan/Feb. If those winners were spread out over the year it would ‘feel’ a lot different than it does at this moment in time.

    – there is something perhaps in the ‘spreading myself too thinly’ argument – well, The ‘members club’ and the TTP stats/customer service + the ‘business side’ has taken more/majority, of my time – but that will always be the case and so it should be from now on,so it is about managing that time better. But,when it comes to ‘tipping’ I have felt I have been putting in the same time- maybe just feeling more drained/more going on in my head, has affected clarity of judgement.

    – part of it is the natural cycle of things with the prices I play at and the win% i have operated at. And, I haven’t lost the ability to find winners (Valadom, Caufields,Harry The Viking,No Duffer,Fox Appeal) (they all have something in common having led all the way/been in front 2/3 all the way round)

    -but, we can get better. And we will. Some more clarity of thought, not over complicating things, being patient, back to basics etc. I mean at Market Rasen on BD I back 2 in the race who were unproven stayers/sloggers,had some qs beyond 24f. In the high point earlier in the year I wouldn’t have done that. And i have done that a few times. Many of the winners from earlier in the year were proven ‘been there and done it’ chasers- in part because they were tough conditions, extreme going/trips.

    -finally- this game is difficult, bloody tough most of the time. It isn’t meant to be easy, and never will be. We soldier on.

    On we go.

  21. Hi Josh,
    The information and analysis you provide for free are a great read for anyone who accesses the site/blog and having been a visitor for nearly 3 years I know that it’s only a matter of time until things start to go in your favour. Your systematic approach will you know eventually produce value winners and I admire your determination to provide good price value bets. It would be easy for you to go down the road of tipping winners at Evens, 6/5, 11/10 etc but get dogs abuse when you encounter a losing run.
    Keep up the good work and let’s hope for some decent winners/ analysis in the coming weeks/ months/ years.

  22. Hi josh. Just to echo what others have said. You’re doing a fine job so stop beating yourself up. If people are unhappy so be it. No one is forcing them to follow your advice. I started a year ago with £50 on £2 ppt. Got to the dizzy heights of £1300 in May and £10ppt only for the summer wipe out to follow. I’m back to £2ppt again but still have £200 collateral and haven’t invested any more than my initial £50 so I haven’t really lost any money. Highs and lows. But that’s racing. Stick to your guns and ignore the whingers. Mick

    1. Cheers Mick – ah, sorry to hear you upped stakes in the summer! Sorry about that. We will get back to those heady heights at some point and sounds like you approached it in the right way to start with.

  23. Hi Josh,
    Well I’ve been with you since day one…back when. The reason I’m still here is that I’ve met all the blow bags….but on your site there is one cardinal difference. It’s called voracity. No lies or bull****.
    I’m 79 yo now….been on horses and bet horses since I was eight in Ireland and Liverpool. Yes we win and we lose, but that’s life. I’d gladly let all the get rich quick merchants leave at speed. We don’t need them.
    I don’t have the energy or enough sharp pencils these days to do what I used to do until 3am in the morning lol, so I follow and sometime listen to the very informed and clued up contributors on your[our] page.
    Yesterday I got wiped out at Chepstow apart from Ger’s The Worlds End, but after that it was downhill again. lol. At the moment I’d make a good downhill skier. So those who know will stick with you, and the rest can whistle.
    Just a point….11.50 Lingfield today Hepplewhite went in at 9/2…Now I know Steve had the Sire at a furlong shorter….but who else was going to win….not the 10yo, so there is a great contributor to your blog Steve Wiseman showing us the way.
    It’s a great blog Josh. Just bide your time lad.
    Best of Luck all.

  24. hi josh /all
    firstly having tried many sites I find this one of yours the best by far it reminds me of the old raceform h/cap paper out on Thursdays full of interesting snippets as we all know racing is a game of two halfs highs/lows but when a horse comes in at 8/1+ it pays for a lot of lows and I’m sure your run of low”s will end soon so keep doing what you do best and we will still follow you I for one am better off because of your tips. best of luck one and all for 2017

  25. hi josh. my old gran use to have a saying,”never bother about a turd while you can sh#t one”! 99% of your readers are behind you through good times and not so good times, i,v been betting on the horses for fourty years and can honestly say i,v learned more in the last 18 months from yourself and other contributors on this site than from anywhere else. let the faceless turds who are just hoping to get rich quick gamble they,r way blindly to oblivion. keep up the good work, good times are only a winner away.

  26. Josh
    I think that the blog and the rich varied contributors make for an outstanding read on virtually a daily basis. Don’t knock yourself about too much about the current run – we have all (if we are honest) been there . I can understand that the admin side is taking its increased share of your time and you shouldn’t under estimate that with the free trial and increased number in your audience that brings an extra pressure to bear.But like most who have been on here for some time confident that it’ll turn round and sooner rather than later

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