No content for Wed 28th. There are no jumps angles and I am tempted to not touch another 3m+ chase for a while/until I have reflected and formulated a plan.
I will be backing Golden Investment in the 2.45 as he is a TTP stats pick, top rated Geegeez Speed and Top 3 HRB. I won’t be over thinking that one too much.
I have read and absorbed all comments made re my tipping. Some didn’t hold back on twitter either. I could discuss plenty but I don’t have the energy and the blunt truth is that the ‘bread and butter’ tipping isn’t good enough. And I am my own worst critic so you can comment away but you won’t ever be more critical than I am of myself. Albeit reading such things is useful for me and I really dont mind. I need to improve. You can only say that for so long – at some point you do have to get better. Big Races using stats/trends are what they are. There was a chance Native River would do that as discussed and that stats approach- the same one, inc the profiling, has found the Becher winner x2 33/1 last 3 years (and the 20/1 nose 2nd this year on shortlist) The shortlist found the Hennessy winner and the 2nd /4th in Caspian Caviar Gold Cup. At ‘The Festival’ the stats/trends shortlist of 4/5/6 horses found the winner in 8 of the 10 20+ runner handicaps. Oh they found Mountainous on this blog also when he won Welsh National the first time at 20/1. That is my approach in those races – they are not the problem. (well, the stats/shortlist approach isn’t, clearly my tipping from that needs some work also but those winners will be found over time with any luck) It is everything else that is, the ‘normal’ races. My Jumps tips are +79 points up for the year (-8 in December now) but they hit a high of 138 points and at the end of main jumps season were on +124. So, it is a bit of a decline at the moment. Much for me to ponder. Clearly I am not as good as I thought I was and I need to educate myself a bit further/come up with a better approach. That will come. There are enough glimmers of hope, but too many shockers. I have said that too many times. It was about time I tried to do something about it. Maybe I just need heavy ground 🙂 (albeit being a one ground trick pony wouldn’t give me much professional pride) I may have just had a flukey run earlier in the year and am now being found out. But, I will improve at some point. The puzzle will be solved.
Back with Thursday’s post at some point.