TTP Jumps Notes: 27/01/16 (COMPLETE)

Urh. Well, that was typical I suppose. Bar watching The King George that was a sh*t punting day for me. Quite awful. The tips were crap, and the ‘ratings pointers’ had their first bad day since that experiment started. (obvious after you launch an Xmas offer I suppose!) That may have been a natural corrections I suspect  and a reminder from the punting gods that we haven’t found the magic money tree yet- albeit over time a very profitable one with any luck. We are at the beginning of that particular journey.

Whatever way you slice and dice those stats it was just poor day. But, it happens, and the place % give some comfort. I think, on my maths… (all ‘4’ winners 11/4 I think, well that’s what I got the day before)

ALL ratings quals (multiple times)

33 bets / 4 wins  /13 win|p / -18 points

Just Those that qualified twice (bold) (backing twice)

16 bets / 2 wins / 7 w|p / -8.5 points

All ratings horses, just once (not backing twice if on both ratings)

22 bets / 3 wins / 9 w|p / -10.75 points

Top Rated (x1)

7 bets / 0 wins / 3 places / -7.

There were at least three decent priced placed horses, 16/1, 12/1 and 25/1 for any EW players and if you backed those hopefully it cushioned the blow.

The non-ratings horses were a collective 0/20 I believe and proved again that in general the ratings are the place to focus based on recent evidence, while trying to nab the odd big priced winner that isn’t highlighted in the ratings.

I won’t dwell on those anymore. It was only one day and a unique one off at that. (albeit not for the 4 people who signed up and left inside one day, I hope they give their next service more of a chance, but i’m afraid if you don’t use free trials / money back offers to their full- to prod,test,trial etc you will sail on passed plenty of decent products. In the next 18 race days or so you should be able to make a judgement if this club is for you. No hard feelings if it isn’t, there is something out there for all punters) 

***

We move on, with tomorrow a bit more like a ‘normal’ Saturday card (ie 3 meetings, and a few big handicaps)

 

CHEPSTOW

1.25 – Awaywiththegreys (all hncps)  4th / Court King (all hncps) / Desert Sensation (hncp hurdle) 3rd

2.40 – Caroles Destrier (all hncps) UP / Goulanes (all hncps)  UP/ Houblon Des Obeaux (hncp c) 3rd / Emperors Choice (hncp chase) UP

3.15 – Aso (hncp chase) WON 7/4  / Drumlee Sunset (micro – age) 2nd

3.50 – Potters Cross (NHF) UP

 

KEMPTON

1.10 – Mystic Sky (all hncps / hncp hurdle) UP / One Big Love (all hncps) UP/ Nordic Nymph WON 3/1 (hncp hurdle)

2.55 – Drum Cliff (all hncps) 2nd / A Boy Names Suzi UP (all hncps + hncp hurdle)

3.30 – Opening Batsman (all hncps) UP / Howlongisafoot (hncp chase) UP / Double Shuffle (micro – class) WON 9/1 / More Bucks (micro- going IF GOOD- likely) UP

 

WETHERBY 

3.05 – Arthurs Oak (micro going IF HEAVY – unlikely)

3.35 – Chasma (all hncps + hncp hurdle) UP / Lilys Legend (all hncps) UP / Tuffatthetop UP(all hncps)

 

BONUS

None.

 

***

RATINGS POINTERS

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

3.15 Chep – Aso WON 7/4 

3.50 Chep- Potters Story – UP

3.30 Kemp – More Bucks 14,30 (see ‘trainer form’ note below)  UP

 

Top 3 

1.25 Chep – Desert Sensation 3rd  14,30 / Rolling Dylan 2nd 

1.10 Kemp – Nordic Nymph 14,30 WON 3/1

3.30 Kemp – Double Shuffle 14,30 WON 9/1

3.05 Weth – Arthurs Oak (unlikely to qualify officially)

3.35 Weth – Chasma 14 UP / Lily’s Legend 14 UP

 

Geegeez Speed 

Top Rated

1.25 Chep – Rolling Dylan 2nd 

335 Weth – Chasma 14 UP

2.55 Kemp – Drum Cliff 2nd 

Top 3

1.10 Kemp- Nordic Nymph 14,30 WON 3/1

3.30 Kemp- Opening Batsman UP / More Bucks 14,30 UP

3.35 Weth – Lillys Legend 14 UP

2.55 Kemp – A Boy Named Suzi UP

***

TRAINER FORM…

Following on from Gary’s comment below I had been pondering what to do on this front. Indeed I don’t believe there is anything on this page,inc ratings, which takes account of current ‘trainer form’. On ‘normal/’non holiday’ days I would look to add some ‘notes’ on trainer form for each runner,as some sort of guide. But there is an easier/less time consuming option…

I use the racecards in GEEGEEZ GOLD and they have ‘trainer form’ pointers. (used for speed ratings also)

A 14 by a trainer’s name indicates in the last 14 days they have had 5+ runners with either a 20% win strike rate, OR a 51%+ place (inc wins) strike rate. 

A 30 by a trainer’s name indicates in the last 30 days they have had 10+ runners with either a 20% win strike rate, OR a 51%+ place (inc wins) strike rate.

I will focus on the ratings for now and will add such ’14’ or ’30’ next to the horses name. You may find that useful, you may not. Trainer form is a funny thing and if I like the price of a horse I wouldn’t necessarily let it put me off- maybe more to be used to give you added confidence to any runner, or highlight those you may want to have a closer look at. Or ignore them. They are an added benefit and I will try and keep track of how and ‘ratings/trainer in form’ pointers get on.

***

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

7 Comments

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  • As a new member who lives purely from what I make on the racing and who uses a lot of stats based data I comment on some of the flaws as I see it with the approach used here.
    I only have yesterdays and today’s selections but 2 things jumped out straight away.
    1) The amount of selections from out of form yards, such as last 14 days 0 from 17, 30 day 1 -44 Tim Vaughan. If you use the place data you can normally see if a stable is going in o coming out of a slump as the % of placed horse’s increases/decreases between 14 & 30 day.
    2) The next and maybe an issue that you will get a lot at big meetings, is that though the selections data says it has a good chance 80% of the trainer data in said race say’s anyone out of the 80% can win. The 1:10 today at Kempton being a good example though I note you angles give 3 of the 8. Hence I try to target races where 80% have poor stats and thus you have a edge on the book.
    Josh. Can I just say not knocking what you do as you work is admirable and partly why I am trailing this is I don’t have time to do all the micro’s with all my own research so hopefully I can filter myself the selections to make good use of your work.

    Gary Haville 27/12/16 5:46 AM Reply


    • Hi Gary,
      Thanks for your comment – firstly polite, reasoned, well-intentioned criticism/suggestions for improvement is always welcome/encouraged,in these parts. In every walk of life that is the only way you improve. ]

      And, on the trainer form issue, i do agree with you. I have added a note/some pointers above,which I had been pondering and you have given me the prod needed to just get on with it- the approach isn’t overly onerous on me and may add some more useful info – it may not, but again with everything, how you use it is up to you. My trainer stats, and both ratings sets, dont take account of current trainer form as far as I am aware, and that may be the final piece of the jigsaw missing.

      Current confidence moving forwards comes from the form of the ‘ratings pointers’ in the first 15 days or so and we shall see if that continues – in part the 21 day trial, and what I consider a reasonable monthly fee, allows those who want to give it a good go to do just that.

      Hopefully you find an approach for you and certainly sounds like you will use as a starting point. It may be that if you want a narrow focus you just home in on the ‘top rated’ ratings pointers qualifiers/then use trainer form pointers. Certainly on ‘big race days/Saturday’s’ that ‘could’ be a more manageable approach.

      But, do keep me and others informed if you do find an approach that works for you.

      Cheers
      Josh

      Josh 27/12/16 10:21 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    In 2.55 at Kempton the Geegeez Speed Ratings show Drumcliff as top rated
    and A Boy Named Suzie as joint second rated, so I believe they should be
    added to your Ratings Pointers selections.

    stumac 27/12/16 1:36 PM Reply


    • Hi Stu. Cheers. Thought ratings looked odd checked both last nigt late and a few were missing. Clearly they have since appeared. Bugger. Thanks. Should add that isn’t the first time have had the odd glitch but thought may be sorted now- assumed for whatever reason they just had no ratings. I just know what will happen now.

      Josh 27/12/16 1:44 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    I am sorry for being pernickety, but anyone who put double stakes on
    Nordic Nymph today, may have been slightly fortunate as the horse
    was not in the top 3 of both sets of ratings. It was in fact 4th top rated
    in the Geegeez Speed Ratings.

    Anyway, I don’t expect a prompt reply as you are no doubt about to
    watch your beloved Liverpool .

    stumac 27/12/16 5:06 PM Reply


    • Hi Stu, you can be as pernickety as you wish! (it’s half time…)

      This is tricky – as when I looked he was def in the top 3 – I assume because, for whatever reason, a complete set of speed ratings wasnt coming through my end, from memory there were 3/4 that had no ratings. That clearly affected things- at the time he was top 3!

      The same problem caused me to miss those two you highlighted- I will count them as losers, (2 points) If they had won I wouldn’t have counted them as they were posted late- Drumcliff would have won but for interference. A tricky one. I don’t know whether to keep him in results or not!

      Josh

      Josh 27/12/16 6:09 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh

        I have noticed that over the last few years since I started recording the winners ratings of HRB, that there is a point at which Chris carries out a re-adjustment of the figures and it’s normally 09.00 am each morning so what you see before this time….can and does get altered so the top 3 is not always the same as the night before Racing

        Norman 27/12/16 10:05 PM Reply


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