FREE DAILY POST: 22/12/16 (complete)

Well we won’t go ‘whoopin and a boooomin’ (don’t think the Poet Laureate is in danger there!) +3 points on a race but it was pleasing to cheer home the old jumping rogue that is Fox Appeal. Dicky was at his best to steer him home/give him daylight/keep him up to his work/make him concentrate… and thankfully he had plenty in hand- he still made odd scratchy errors and wasn’t putting it all in near the end to my eye. He simply outclassed and out experienced that lot. That win has covered a few of my losses on him, but probably not all of them, and I doubt I will follow him in again. Albeit they were ideal conditions and that was a nice pot to win- maybe they will think about targeting it again next season.

***

FESTIVE OFFER…. (25% discount)

Just an update as,well, due to technical difficulties/a change of plan, I have decided to alter what was going to be my ‘winter season ticket’ offer to the Members Club. On Friday I was going to offer a free trial until the 14th Jan, and then a one off fee of £30 through to end of April. But, working out how to do that and getting the settings right between paypal and my membership software has proved challenging and as such I am going back to what I know! (the fixed date trial,then a one off fixed fee was causing issues)

So… for THREE DAYS ONLY… (23rd/24th/25th)… If you sign up on one of those three days you will get a 21 Day Free Trial to the Members Club and then it will be £7.50 per month after that (until end of April). You can cancel anytime of course and if you do so before the end of the trial you won’t be charged. So, that is £7.5o per month rather than £10, and works out at £30 for the Jan-April period instead of £40. And you get some bonus days at the end of December. From Boxing day onwards it will revert to £10 per month and a 14 day trial. Every little helps! 🙂

If you are interested in that, then do look out for emails/posts on Friday.

And I mean, given my new ‘ratings pointers’ are 25/72,42p = +72 points in the last 13 days, you would be mad not to give it a go,at least for the trial… 🙂

**

Onto some racing…

 

TIPS

1.05 Bangor 

Millicent Silver – 1.5 points win – 9/2 (general) PU

Nail M – 1.5 points win – 9/1 (lad/betway) 8/1 (general) 3rd 

Barton Gift…AHHHHHHHHHH. Reads write up again. AHHHHHH. One day I will have this chasing game by the b****** – ‘if they are worth backing with change from down the sofa, shouldn’t you at least consider throwing 1/2 a point at them?’ Hmm. Quite. Back up in trip (outpaced last twice, 3rd run of season, change of headgear, 1/1 with jockey…the signs were there and I half predicted a return to form) When a 28/1 winner doesn’t make you scratch your head, it is quite annoying. Clearly my ability to learn quickly is a myth at the moment – I was making those errors in February! Still, I will take what positives there are from that. 

 

I do enjoy a 3m5f slog in the mud and we shall see if the pins have landed on the right ones. I have decided to reinvest my Fox Appeal race profits in these two as I am confident we should get a run for our money. These two do need a real slog, and given it is soft, hopefully they get in. Any more rain (none forecast, would be even better)

Millicent Silver- well NTD appears to be hitting a hot streak again and simply because she has a run under her belt I would swap the prices around with the fav- interesting that Sam gets the call up also. I know Ryan Hatch is injured but Jamie B could have been given the call. This one is still lightly raced, 2/5 chasing, is a CD winner, stays all day, jumps well, and just keeps responding for pressure. I wonder, given that CD win, if this was an early season target and that last run was to blow away the cobwebs. She was running ok that day, maybe starting to tire (albeit running style deceptive as she was starting to respond to pressure and NTDs are usually fit to a point) before being brought down. Still, that was a fair way into the race and she could come on for those efforts. She just looks likely to give her running to my eyes, and that is questionable over plenty in here. She looks solid at 9/2.

Nail M- well this old slow boat has a race like this in him for sure- I may have backed him once before, and I have always thought he could take one of these if everything dropped right. To my eye he travelled more sweatley than he has in the past and went well for a fair way, and plugged on. He would have needed that run and 3m with ‘good’ in the description would have been sharp enough. Last year, after a 500+ day break, he ran his best race on his second start. So, he should be sharper here. The trainer’s horses are also starting to run better having been ice cold for quite some time. 1/10,2p last 10 days. There are plenty of placed efforts- like that Exeter run last December over 31f, a repeat of which would put him bang there in this field. Slowly plodding on over the last two. These two may slug it out together with any luck. 9/1, 8/1 seemed a bit big to my eyes and he looked the most interesting of the bigger priced runners. Now 8, this could be his year.

Of the rest… well Krackatoa King could clearly win this, he might. First start for Kerry Lee who is starting to hit some better form, he has always shaped like a slogger and I suspect she will win a few long distance chases with him. I can see why connections would want to send a horse like this to her. I just think 5/2 is short – especially considering that this is his first start in a while and a lot of Lee’s, for whatever reason and by her own admission, have needed the run this season. Indeed, those that have had 61+ days off since start of Oct are 0/20,4p. A few in there have been big prices but at 5/2 you want no doubts. Fitness is a big doubt. It is a tough race- 3m5f in soft, top weight as well, in which to make a winning return. Credit to connections if he does it, but he can beat me at 5/2. One to keep an eye on for sure moving forwards.

I can’t have the rest for me. Beauboreen steps up in trip and it may suit but the strength of his form isn’t much to shout about for me. Gary Charm has major stamina questions- I have thought that over 3m so I can’t back him here. You never know, but he would be a surprise winner to me- doesn’t look in great form also. They are getting his mark down though… back over 20f at some point, hack up. Valleyofmilan- he has a stamina question also and is more exposed than a few in here. I think there are stronger stayers in here. He may prove me wrong, but was happy to leave. Rocky Bender is old now and looks out of form- he stays, but his recent wins have been very poor contests. He could always be last horse standing of course.

Barton Gift – he is a character who at his best would go close here- but he is so inconsistent and hard to predict these days. He looks out of form, but he has before and then bounced back. It is his third run of the season and he has another headgear change. Who knows what we will get but I can see a case for why you might rade the spare change drawer at 16s. (no spare change down my sofas now!) I am not sure what Kilcullen Flem has done to justify single figure odds but i suppose he might leave me drowning in an eggy mess. He hasn’t done anything over fences yet and went backwards the last day. Maybe he wants a trip but I want to see more before getting involved. He is unexposed over fences though, and those types can never be discounted and are never shock shock winners. But i wont be backing him today. I want proven hardy horses in this. Wellforth doesn’t look good enough for this level and has a few questions, he is 12 and seemingly out of form. He probably needs 8 others to fail to complete to have a chance of taking this.

So, that is the lot I think. Two semi confident pokes at the prices. If the fav is fit he will run a big race but worth taking on for me. Baring accidents these two should be thereabouts pitching at the end.

Pace…nos 2/7/1 can be up there and this will be run at an ok gallop. These two will track and sit midfield i suspect and given the trip/ground should be able to hold their position. Don’t worry if they start to be ridden a long way out, Twisters horse esp, as they do just keep going- maybe watch the in play price for a £1 or £2. She may go big enough at some stage before the late grind to victory. Maybe.

***

 

 

***

 

JUMPS ANGLES

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

Krackatoa King UP

 

December Trainers

(well researched I think, untested really,so treat with some caution/use as starting points. Anyone who took not of the ‘trainer track combos’ may have noted Williams record at Ffos Las…alas I did notice, after his two winners, one at 10/1. Those notes in free reports/systems tab. If you do wish to follow those trainer track combos,may be best not to rely on me to highlight them, I always seem to forget!) 

1.05 Bang – Rocky Bender UP

2.30 Wolvs – Dr Parkes (14/1<) UP

2.50 Chelm- Plus Night (14/1<) UP

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– LIVE TEST

Hurdle

2.10 Bang – Miss Mash WON 4/1 / Marvellous Monty 3rd

3.10 Bang – Drive on Locky UP

Chase

12.35 Bang – Double Treasure –  UP

1.05 Bang – Gary Charm (11/1< best) UP

1.05 Bang – Kilcullen Flem UP

 

***

No More Today

***

Merry Christmas….

May I take this opportunity to wish you and your families a very Merry Christmas.

I will not be taking  any ‘days off’ as such and there will be a Boxing Day post with plenty to browse through. As and when that gets posted, who knows. But, bar Gold Cup and Grand National Day, I think the next few days are the highlight of the Jumping year. Kings George, Welsh National and plenty more besides.

With that in mind, a fun little poll. What follows isn’t a question about value, or odds etc. Simply, who do you think is the most likely winner of the King George.. all a bit of fun (I will just be watching I think, without having a bet…famous last words…well, you won’t need to bet in it to enjoy it)

Who Is Winning The King George?

  • Cue Card (44%, 96 Votes)
  • Thistlecrack (41%, 89 Votes)
  • Tea For Two (9%, 19 Votes)
  • Something else (6%, 14 Votes)

Total Voters: 218

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

19 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Well done with Foxy today Josh. You had more faith with him than me (at least at that price). I think you probably have the right ones in the 13:05 at Bangor although my preference is for Nail M. My worry on Silver (despite the fact that on top of what you’ve said NTD has been pretty much automatic at the track over handicap chases over the past 12 months, 4/7, 6 places) is there is a wise man who keeps telling me that its really hard to carry a lot of weight over these marathon distances on soft ground hence why that price is a little thin to me. I do keep coming back to Rocky Bender (won on his 2nd run in each of his previous 2 seasons, jockey’s only ride of the day, he did win a class 3 over 3m6f on soft even if it was a 4 runner poor race, its Venetia’s time of the year, he has won at Bangor before, back to his last winning mark) so have had a saver given 14s looked too big.

    I also really like the look of Lyme Park in the 14:10. Came 2nd LTO and the winner has won 2 more since and is now rated almost 20lbs higher. With the jockey claim she is actually 5lbs lower. McCain seems to have been farming Bangor over the last 12 months (7/20, 11p over that time). She has yet to race on soft but looking at both his sire’s and mare’s offspring she has been crying for it.

    Moving on to Chelmsford, I am glad that Topaling finally drops back down to a class 6 handicap where he is 4/5. He is only 1lb above his last win which also happened to be in a class 6 over 2 miles. Trainer had his first win in a month on monday so form isnt an issue. Only slight doubt is he hasnt raced at the track but at 5/1 I am happy to take the risk with everything else in place.

    nickmazur 21/12/16 11:31 PM Reply


    • Cheers Nick.. yep, part of that was obviously heart and having a history with the horse- and the realisation that the pain of watching him hack up (which there was a chance he would do) would be much worse than losing another point on him! Also, I convinced myself the race was between 4 of them, and three of those finished 1-2-3. In that context I thought price was just about ok, but can see why some would think it was too short. A rare one I have got right at that end of the market!

      Take your weight point about MS- but, she only has 6lb actual weight more on her back than that CD victory – and that was in heavy, and she wasn’t stopping at the line- she could have gone on at that pace for a bit longer i think. That 6lb may make the difference come the end,we shall see, but I wasn’t too put off. Bar the other selection and the fav, I really didn’t think much else had a chance in here, regardless of any weight carried. Rocky needs to be at his best to take this- we shall see, his odds are big but I was happy to leave. I may have that wrong. GL

      Josh 22/12/16 9:17 AM Reply


  • hi josh
    i have just realised that i had £2 win on automated @ 12 to 1 on sunday. it was an irish TTP / HRB bonus. as far as recall, that has been only irish selection, g elliott is the trainer. what that selected as elliott is on TTP when running in uk? as it won @12 are such types going to be normal selections now? have you counted it in results overall?

    pendrem 22/12/16 9:44 AM Reply


    • Hi Malc – the bonus stats have always been counted and recorded as such in the main results updates for all TTP.
      Automated – well so far he has been only Bonus qualifier to have been a ratings pointer horse also (HRB top rated) and he has been counted in the ‘ratings pointers’ results as advertised. The Irish stats are researched in the same way as the main guide, same angles etc etc. And moving forward I will highlight those that tick the ratings boxes.
      Josh

      Josh 22/12/16 3:51 PM Reply


  • Seasons greetings all.

    Re the 1.05 and Krakatoa King; it is my understanding that Ms Lee wants to run him in the Welsh National but needs a penalty to have a chance of getting in. Therefore it needs to win today. I agree the price may be skinny. Millicent Silver seems well tipped up.

    I like Fortified Bay in the 1.35, the King/Hutchinson combo that goes well at the track.

    Orlando Rogue sits the Dalgliesh profile in the 4.30 at Wolves. However Lee Bolingbroke has tipped it and he is usually the kiss of death.

    My best bet is Tegara in 1.30 Wolves.

    If anything else comes to my attention I will post again.

    Well done on the winner Josh and in keeping going over the festivities. I will free up time on xmas eve and xmas day late and so will have to go easy on the drink!

    martin colwell 22/12/16 10:39 AM Reply


    • A very merry Christmas to you all and many winners.

      I’m still in the throes of a losing run, so I’m thinking of doing ‘Cold Turkey’ until I hit a winner or two. lol
      Cheers for all the informative mails..
      Best of luck to you all.

      Well done on your year of blood sweat and tears Josh…..Keep taking the tablets.

      Tony Mc 22/12/16 11:48 AM Reply


      • Cheers Gents…
        Tony.. I have been out, just returned to see the result of the 1.05 – gulp. read my Barton Gift write up again. Safe to say I need some of those tablets!! For many a reason I think haha.

        Josh 22/12/16 3:53 PM Reply


  • As one of the silent observers (my contributions would not help overly – trust me), can I just take the opportunity to wish a Happy Christmas to Josh especially along with all of the many and varied contributors to the site.

    Having spent a load of money on other sites in the past, I feel that the value for money, the content, the additional advice and the general all round positive feel of the site are exceptional. A case in point is Josh going and checking it was ok to put the information up on the site with Matt and the Doctor. Class Act.

    Obviously winning tips and information are welcome but at the end of the day, Information is key and that is what this site provides in spades.

    Happy Christmas all.

    Best wishes

    Ben

    921389 22/12/16 12:13 PM Reply


    • Hi Ben,

      Many thanks for your kind words, much appreciated. Makes it all worthwhile and in a couple of short sentences you have summed up what I have tried to create on these pages! I may need to add that into some sales blurb haha. (i gest, I may actually do that)

      I should add that I have also spoken to Chris at HorseRaceBase towers and all is fine on that front – albeit it he did make me realise how buggered I and a few others would be for a time if HRB just disappeared. So, I should probably send some more ad hoc donations his way.

      I have tried to create a mix – my own views, tips, the stats stuff etc- things you can follow blind while also creating the ‘space’ to find your own bets, using my info, or other readers comments etc. Hopefully all combined makes for a content punting experience. Things can always be improved on, but so far I wont complain.
      All the best
      Josh

      Josh 22/12/16 3:57 PM Reply


  • josh the winter season ticket is this different from the tts guide that you sold a few mths ago covering every track for jumps

    anthony p 22/12/16 12:18 PM Reply


    • Hi Anthony … nope – well, the daily notes are based on highlighting the stats from that guide- I suppose Members pay for me doing that work for them (also get the guide free), my added notes, and now especially my new ‘ratings pointers’ ‘fusion’ idea- another 4/1 winner today, +2 points, to add to the pot.
      You can just buy the guide but what with the daily notes, and all the added extras of the members club, you would be mad not to give it a go. Betting £1 on ‘ratings pointers’ horses would more than cover annual subs at this rate, and leave a fair bit left. (albeit the wheels may still come off!)
      Josh

      Josh 22/12/16 3:59 PM Reply


  • merry xmas to josh and everyone

    pendrem 22/12/16 12:48 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    I am a little confused. A couple of days ago I signed on for a free 7 days trial, followed by £10 monthly if I wanted to continue after the free trial. I now find that for three days over Christmas it is possibe to get a 21 day free trial followed by £7.50 a month untilApril for those who wish to contnue.

    Having read that, I favour the second option from the first! Please tell me what I have to do to switch.

    Many thanks

    Mike

    Mike Collier 22/12/16 5:19 PM Reply


    • Hi Mike, I have emailed you.
      Josh

      Josh 22/12/16 7:53 PM Reply


  • Thanks for a great blog throughout the year Josh winners & losers.Wishing you and all the gang a merry xmas

    shek2nd 22/12/16 5:57 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / all

    A brief profile of the sire “Dragon Pulse”

    As a racehorse he only ran 5 times back in 2011/12 primarily in Ireland winning his maiden over 6F, A group 2 over 7F, and runner up in a Group 1 over 7F and was rated 113 in his short racing career.

    This is his first season as a stallion and his progeny have already respectable figures of :

    160 runs, 23 wins, 66 places, 14.38% win SR, 41.25% place SR

    Where he has really made a mark though is Polytrack with figures of:

    13 runs, 6 wins, 9 places, 46.15% win SR, 69.23% place SR

    and if we break this down by distance we have the following:

    5F – 1 run, 1 win
    6F – 5 runs, 2 wins, 3 places
    7F – 5 runs, 3 wins, 5 places
    1M – 2 runs, 0 wins, 0 places

    So we can say that at this early stage that if we look at “Dragon Pulse” progeny racing over 5F to 7F on Polytrack we have excellent figures of:

    11 runs, 6 wins, 9 places 54.55% win SR, 81.82% place SR

    I have added the above to a list of ” Super Stallions” which have shown over a 50% SR for a certain set of circumstances on the AW and I’ll be posting these up on the run up to Christmas, there are currently 14 and I have a bit more work to do before completing the list.

    Going back to “Dragon Pulse” there is a horse running for the first time at Dundalk tomorrow which hits the criteria above and it is also the first try for the sire’s progeny at this track…..

    6.00pm Dundalk 7F – Main Pulse 25/1 (generally available at most books)

    A word of caution though she is drawn 11 and the Dam was only rated 47 with no success in her races, so it will be interesting to see if the sire improves her stock with what is his ideal conditions, a small EW play for me at these odds

    Be back tomorrow or Saturday with the list

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 22/12/16 7:10 PM Reply


    • Quality stuff again Steve, thank you!

      Jack 22/12/16 11:30 PM Reply


  • Did Exactly Same Thing as Mike Collier above. 7 Days Plus Month at £10 Quid a Pop.
    Not Complaining as Such . But Considering Part of 7 Days . 3 Days no Racing . Feel bit Short Changed Having said that was going to go for Extra Month anyway. I know how much Work goes into Daily write ups.
    Guess Pay money and take Chance . Bit like Buying New suit on Christmas eve. . From MS at 300 Only to find on Boxing Day 150. . Same as taking Best odds. All best for Christmas Season R

    Richard 22/12/16 9:37 PM Reply


    • Hi Richard. Yep I was awaiting a few messages haha. Timing always tricky. ..those that joined Monday say may have backed a 50/1 winner or if just focussed on ratings pointers have made 8 points or so this week. Timing of these things always tricky. Feel free to email me. I can easily cancel profile and you can join up again when offer goes live. That is an option. Doesn’t bother me and understand feeling of being short changed etc Josh

      Josh 22/12/16 10:46 PM Reply


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