FREE DAILY POST: 21/12/16 (complete)

Something to read…

Well my ‘TTP Stats/ratings ‘fusion’ idea is quickly turning into my best idea yet – I was always confident I would come up with a good one at some point! – Yur Next 9/2 adding to this weeks tally… 3/7,4p + 7.5 points so far this week for the ‘ratings pointers’. He qualified against both HRB and Geegeez Speed… (actually since I started that ‘fusion’ experiment on 9th December, they are 25/71,42p = +73 points… whoosh)

It is the latter I want to touch on. These speed ratings are devised by a Dr Peter May who by all accounts seems to have a rather big brain. I think he has a PhD in Artificial Intelligence and his speed ratings are based on ‘neural networks’ rather than the common use of ‘standard times’. Yep, over my head also! (but he, along with Matt,’Mr Geegeez’, kindly gave their permission for me to carry on using them as I am- to highlight top 3 rated runners from my own stats qualifiers- so, I will mention him every now and then. It’s only fair.)

Anyway, he does occasionally write a blog for AtTheRaces , covering various things. You can read it HERE>>> and flick through old posts also. Hopefully something of interest there.

(and you can read more at Peter’s website HERE>>>)

***

 

TIPS

2.40 Ludlow

DAVERON – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 11/1 (gen) UP

FOX APPEAL – 1 point win – 4/1 – WON 4/1

 

Daveron is definitely worth a stab at the price- he travelled and jumped so well at Ascot on stable debut and the hope is that he comes on bundles for the run. Trainer in cracking form. That was his first run at 3m and I have a doubt as to whether he stays. But this is an easier enough 3m and I will chance that he faded three out in that decent race LTO due to fitness. 12/1 allows the roll of the dice I think and he looks an interesting outsider for me. If he sees this trip out, given this is only his 7th chase, he will go close here.

Fox Appeal… oh i have done it haven’t I. You knew it. Deep down probably I did too. So I’ve committed that cardinal sin of backing this sodding horse one more time. Having slept on it I have decided that 4s just allows one ‘final’ chance to be taken. Everything does look right and surely he is taking advantage of this dropping mark at some point. So, what has changed? Well, Dickie does ride again (maybe because Jacob rides for retained owner) but he will know more about the horse having ridden him a couple of starts ago. It was a strange run at Ascot that I still can’t get my head around but Ludlow, while tricky, is no Ascot. He also wears the tongue tie for the second time, having been fitted the last day, where he ran well. He isn’t a LH horse really but he ran ok there, only 8 days after that Ascot run. It is hard to ignore that in October last year he was going close off marks in the 150s. He is 133 now and one day, today, he is going to hose up in a race like this. He is I tell you! This is usually the time of year he peaks also. He is in the top 3 HRB ratings which is never a bad thing and without doubt he is the best ‘been there and done it horse’ in the race. Lavelle is also in form, 2/10,3p in last 14 days. I decided I didn’t want two unexposed ‘could be anything’ types onside really, which leads me to…

Well Sugar Barron could win this given his unexposed profile. But, he has been running in small field chases and not jumping well, falling LTO. 4/1, 9/2 is ok but in that context not overly generous. He does have a couple of questions now, and who knows how he will cope, jumping wise, surrounded by this many horses. Happy to leave him. Calett Mad is more interesting and I wouldn’t be shocked if he went close. But,having thought about it- he has only won a small field handicap novice chase and this is a decent enough race. He also gets a tongue tie for the first time which suggests they ‘heard’ a noise LTO. His jumping was ok, if not sticky at times, but he is entitled to get better. This decent ground is a slight niggle also, and going RH is a new experience over fences. He will also have been 100% the last day I suspect and may not come on for the run. It could be that he has a stack in hand but my pin, in part heart ruling also, came down on Foxy from those near the top end. IF Fox Appeal rediscovers any of that old sparkle, he will win like a 2/1 shot I think. That is an If though. One final chance. Knowing my luck I may have got them wrong, and I may have a ‘saver’ to Calett to cover my stakes on the other two.

Of the rest… well King of The Wolds may out run his odds but often the market guides with this yard’s chasers- and I am not sure many would improve a chaser from Jefferson. I decided that he may appreciate this trip more but even at his best that wouldn’t be good enough I don’t think against the top 4 in here- and I cant think they are all going to fluff their lines! Famous last words. (a stiff drink will be needed if he wins) The rest have too many questions for me. Cernunnos is a George chaser here so always worth a second glance- but he looks out of sorts and does have a stamina question. Many in here look out of form or as though the handicapper may have them. If something else beats me I wasn’t going to find them today. That does cover the top 5 in the market and surely one is winning this, well one of the top 4.

Pace.. well that is interesting…Gentleman Jon and maybe King of the Wolds may be up there. Both the selections seem to travel well enough and I can’t see an excuse. Daveron’s superb jumping (he really was very fast/slick the last day to my eye) should ensure wherever they are there should not be an excuse really. Hopefully both no further back than front half. Fox Appeals class, which is still there somewhere, may ensure he naturally travels nears the front. It will be interesting how Dickie rides him here.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio- LIVE TEST

Chase

2.20 FL- Rock On Rocky – 2nd

Tom George Chasers

2.40 Lud – Cernunnos – UP

 

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

1.20 Ffos Las- At First Light – 5/1 – (UP- well, raced prominently but never sent to the front,maybe just no good on the day or sulked. Either way,another dud) somewhat caught my eye as looking like she may relish these conditions (now heavy at track I believe) whereas others have it to prove… She is 2/3 in heavy, inc a NHF race here, 4/10 at the class, has won over the distance and slightly further and is back to her last winning mark, before the claim. The young rider is 4/19,13p in C4 handicap hurdles, so, i won’t use that as an excuse. She is also a front runner and could dictate this from the front- if getting the fractions right it could be hard work coming from behind here today. And finally, she is 1/4,2p in handicap hurdlers after breaks of 60+ days, so that isn’t a concern. At 5/1 she looked the most interesting in here, ticking a few boxes ‘angles’ for me. Oh and she also has the best Geegez Speed figure by quite a distance in this. Interesting. The Irish raider looks well fancied but has been whacked by our handicapper to 119 for not winning. She may have loads in hand but 7/4 is short and worth taking on against a proven type in conditions. The Twister horse is also interesting, and I would have put her as the main danger were she fancied in the market, but she is on the drift which may be a negative. Time will tell but unexposed and could have any amount in hand if ready to roll here.

 

Finally, I will mention Dr Robbin 2nd 8/1>9/2 in the 2.50 who, as a member reminded me on today’s post, has been in my mind since his Aintree run- simply because he has few chase miles on the clock and looked very fat after a long time off that day – as if if would take 2/3 runs for him to be up to speed. He ran well enough the last day also, staying on as if he has a chase or three in him one day. The big question here is the going – kept mainly to good ground I have no idea how he will handle very soft/heavy. IF he handles it, he out-runs odds of 8/1. If he doesn’t, you could name your price as he wont be winning. This is also a deep enough race as well with a few LTO winners who look upwardly mobile. So, it may be a race to just watch with the notebook. Albeit having said that, I did throw a muggy 1/2 point at him at 8s, ‘just in case’. Well, after the last 12 days of my ‘TTP ratings pointers’ I and others may have a bit more to play with than we did! (I suspect he will flounder in the mud, but you never know- hopefully they withdraw him if they don’t think he will cope)

***

That will be all for today.

Good luck with any bets. The men in white coats are waiting at the bottom of my Fox Appeal shaped cliff.

 

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

11 Comments

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  • Paddy Watch

    Have been away for a few days but there wasn’t much happening value wise anyway

    2 for tomorrow,hopefully can get a win before Christmass break

    2.10 Ludlow Wizard Sliabh 1pt win 6/1 bet365
    3.40 Ludlow Blue Comet 1/2pt e/w 25/1 bet365

    Paddy is beginning to get few winners this season with Paul Henderson,so Doitforthevillage might also run well in 1.32

    gearoid180468 20/12/16 8:30 PM Reply


    • Some gamble on Blue Comet, Gearoid. Good luck, mate.

      blueboy199 21/12/16 11:50 AM Reply


  • I have nothing for Wednesday yet. I have the Millwall v Charlton derby to suffer in the evening. Traffic should be choca!

    I think that there is a lot of money to be made 26th and 27th and so am mostly waiting for that. Lots of meetings and so I suggest concentrate on Kempton and two others max unless you spot or hear something good.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 20/12/16 10:18 PM Reply


  • I managed to get 13-2 on Fox Appeal, but the one I like at a price is King of the Wolds. Change of stable looks to have helped as he’s been running well over a far too short trip. He’s proven over the trip and may well get his own way out front as no other front runners. Number of runners is a concern, best form in smaller fields, but if he front runs then happy to overlook. Best of luck with Daveron – can’t see him staying myself.

    JV 21/12/16 8:15 AM Reply


    • Ah well done, I saw 5s in places last night but that didn’t seem to last long. I am probably mad for having another go but this really will be the final chance, never to be backed again!

      Daveron- yep, he may not stay. I simply don’t know and no one can say that with any confidence. Only his second run over 3m, in part it is annoying that the last run was on his seasonal debut as confuses things- cruised into it turning in and then slowly faded- either not fit, didn’t stay, or a mixture of both. There is always a question with a 12/1 poke- if he stays he goes close for me, and at that price I will take a dart. IF he is ever going to get the trip, it will be around here, in a race that may not be the most strongly run chase of all time.

      Josh 21/12/16 8:44 AM Reply


  • Don’t think there’s anything wrong with giving Foxy one last shot. Only had one run this season under suitable conditions

    Ali 21/12/16 9:05 AM Reply


    • yep, true- only his 2nd run under ‘ideal conditions’ – albeit if he messes this up, he really is running out of excuses! One last hurrah. If today is the day, he could really win this well.

      Josh 21/12/16 9:12 AM Reply


  • I like Gardefort today, 1.35 Ludlow. 10/1-11/1. Venetia Williams horse ran on saturday and unseated after the 2nd fence i believe, the jockey getting squeezed on the landing side of that fence and got bumped out of the saddle (unlucky) . My eye was constantly drawn to the horse running loose after that, as he followed the field and appeared to jump every fence in the race, and given his ‘new weight’ ran through the field continuing to jump the fences and ‘won’ the race. I suppose the point i’m making is that the horse enjoyed himself and as far as he was concerned he just won. He didnt pull himself up, he didnt run to side of any fence he jumped them and cleanly too, so he appears to be well. So often a fall or unseat can be a bad experience for a horse. I think part of what us punters do is try to get inside the minds of the horse we are betting on. I also note that VW is 5 from 7 in this race, Gardefort being one that won this race in 2014, and she had Cepage entered for this at 4day decs. Hopefully something positive may come from backing all the fallers i have done recently, 3 on saturday alone. GL

    JamesM 21/12/16 9:59 AM Reply


    • Good luck James, yep a solid case can be made at the prices for him for sure. Yep I seemed to have backed plenty of fallers/unseats in the last couple of weeks- just one of those cyclical things I think, will all even out over time- backing a horse nailed on for second who wins when leader falls etc.
      I thought Noche looked decent but I don’t like his drift- and having pondered that big price maybe the ground will be too soft- it was bordering on heavy here when he last ran in that laboured third, nowhere near good to soft. But, all his wins/places on proper good ground, and there may be a bit too much good to soft around for his liking. Still, i had a nibble on him and 11s looks big on Gardefort as a few near the top, while ‘interesting’ profiles, do have the odd question. GL

      Josh 21/12/16 10:12 AM Reply


  • Boom the Fox is back although tried to throw it away . well persevered Josh

    kevin holmes 21/12/16 2:48 PM Reply


    • Cheers Kevin, we wont get too carried away with +3 points on a race, but a win is a win and good to see him do that, and recover some losses! Good ride by Dickie – boy he struggles with his jumping, even around there! So uncertain of himself , but RJ got him round. That just about, maybe, covers losses on him! One to leave now I think, albeit those conditions were as ideal as you are going to get with him.
      Daveron poor, and before stamina become a Q for me which was disappointing- maybe he didn’t like the track, or the going, or being raced from the front. Not sure. Will keep an eye on him.

      Josh 21/12/16 3:30 PM Reply


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