Something to read…
Well my ‘TTP Stats/ratings ‘fusion’ idea is quickly turning into my best idea yet – I was always confident I would come up with a good one at some point! – Yur Next 9/2 adding to this weeks tally… 3/7,4p + 7.5 points so far this week for the ‘ratings pointers’. He qualified against both HRB and Geegeez Speed… (actually since I started that ‘fusion’ experiment on 9th December, they are 25/71,42p = +73 points… whoosh)
It is the latter I want to touch on. These speed ratings are devised by a Dr Peter May who by all accounts seems to have a rather big brain. I think he has a PhD in Artificial Intelligence and his speed ratings are based on ‘neural networks’ rather than the common use of ‘standard times’. Yep, over my head also! (but he, along with Matt,’Mr Geegeez’, kindly gave their permission for me to carry on using them as I am- to highlight top 3 rated runners from my own stats qualifiers- so, I will mention him every now and then. It’s only fair.)
Anyway, he does occasionally write a blog for AtTheRaces , covering various things. You can read it HERE>>> and flick through old posts also. Hopefully something of interest there.
(and you can read more at Peter’s website HERE>>>)
DAVERON – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 11/1 (gen) UP
FOX APPEAL – 1 point win – 4/1 – WON 4/1
Daveron is definitely worth a stab at the price- he travelled and jumped so well at Ascot on stable debut and the hope is that he comes on bundles for the run. Trainer in cracking form. That was his first run at 3m and I have a doubt as to whether he stays. But this is an easier enough 3m and I will chance that he faded three out in that decent race LTO due to fitness. 12/1 allows the roll of the dice I think and he looks an interesting outsider for me. If he sees this trip out, given this is only his 7th chase, he will go close here.
Fox Appeal… oh i have done it haven’t I. You knew it. Deep down probably I did too. So I’ve committed that cardinal sin of backing this sodding horse one more time. Having slept on it I have decided that 4s just allows one ‘final’ chance to be taken. Everything does look right and surely he is taking advantage of this dropping mark at some point. So, what has changed? Well, Dickie does ride again (maybe because Jacob rides for retained owner) but he will know more about the horse having ridden him a couple of starts ago. It was a strange run at Ascot that I still can’t get my head around but Ludlow, while tricky, is no Ascot. He also wears the tongue tie for the second time, having been fitted the last day, where he ran well. He isn’t a LH horse really but he ran ok there, only 8 days after that Ascot run. It is hard to ignore that in October last year he was going close off marks in the 150s. He is 133 now and one day, today, he is going to hose up in a race like this. He is I tell you! This is usually the time of year he peaks also. He is in the top 3 HRB ratings which is never a bad thing and without doubt he is the best ‘been there and done it horse’ in the race. Lavelle is also in form, 2/10,3p in last 14 days. I decided I didn’t want two unexposed ‘could be anything’ types onside really, which leads me to…
Well Sugar Barron could win this given his unexposed profile. But, he has been running in small field chases and not jumping well, falling LTO. 4/1, 9/2 is ok but in that context not overly generous. He does have a couple of questions now, and who knows how he will cope, jumping wise, surrounded by this many horses. Happy to leave him. Calett Mad is more interesting and I wouldn’t be shocked if he went close. But,having thought about it- he has only won a small field handicap novice chase and this is a decent enough race. He also gets a tongue tie for the first time which suggests they ‘heard’ a noise LTO. His jumping was ok, if not sticky at times, but he is entitled to get better. This decent ground is a slight niggle also, and going RH is a new experience over fences. He will also have been 100% the last day I suspect and may not come on for the run. It could be that he has a stack in hand but my pin, in part heart ruling also, came down on Foxy from those near the top end. IF Fox Appeal rediscovers any of that old sparkle, he will win like a 2/1 shot I think. That is an If though. One final chance. Knowing my luck I may have got them wrong, and I may have a ‘saver’ to Calett to cover my stakes on the other two.
Of the rest… well King of The Wolds may out run his odds but often the market guides with this yard’s chasers- and I am not sure many would improve a chaser from Jefferson. I decided that he may appreciate this trip more but even at his best that wouldn’t be good enough I don’t think against the top 4 in here- and I cant think they are all going to fluff their lines! Famous last words. (a stiff drink will be needed if he wins) The rest have too many questions for me. Cernunnos is a George chaser here so always worth a second glance- but he looks out of sorts and does have a stamina question. Many in here look out of form or as though the handicapper may have them. If something else beats me I wasn’t going to find them today. That does cover the top 5 in the market and surely one is winning this, well one of the top 4.
Pace.. well that is interesting…Gentleman Jon and maybe King of the Wolds may be up there. Both the selections seem to travel well enough and I can’t see an excuse. Daveron’s superb jumping (he really was very fast/slick the last day to my eye) should ensure wherever they are there should not be an excuse really. Hopefully both no further back than front half. Fox Appeals class, which is still there somewhere, may ensure he naturally travels nears the front. It will be interesting how Dickie rides him here.
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio- LIVE TEST
2.20 FL- Rock On Rocky – 2nd
Tom George Chasers
2.40 Lud – Cernunnos – UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
1.20 Ffos Las- At First Light – 5/1 – (UP- well, raced prominently but never sent to the front,maybe just no good on the day or sulked. Either way,another dud) somewhat caught my eye as looking like she may relish these conditions (now heavy at track I believe) whereas others have it to prove… She is 2/3 in heavy, inc a NHF race here, 4/10 at the class, has won over the distance and slightly further and is back to her last winning mark, before the claim. The young rider is 4/19,13p in C4 handicap hurdles, so, i won’t use that as an excuse. She is also a front runner and could dictate this from the front- if getting the fractions right it could be hard work coming from behind here today. And finally, she is 1/4,2p in handicap hurdlers after breaks of 60+ days, so that isn’t a concern. At 5/1 she looked the most interesting in here, ticking a few boxes ‘angles’ for me. Oh and she also has the best Geegez Speed figure by quite a distance in this. Interesting. The Irish raider looks well fancied but has been whacked by our handicapper to 119 for not winning. She may have loads in hand but 7/4 is short and worth taking on against a proven type in conditions. The Twister horse is also interesting, and I would have put her as the main danger were she fancied in the market, but she is on the drift which may be a negative. Time will tell but unexposed and could have any amount in hand if ready to roll here.
Finally, I will mention Dr Robbin 2nd 8/1>9/2 in the 2.50 who, as a member reminded me on today’s post, has been in my mind since his Aintree run- simply because he has few chase miles on the clock and looked very fat after a long time off that day – as if if would take 2/3 runs for him to be up to speed. He ran well enough the last day also, staying on as if he has a chase or three in him one day. The big question here is the going – kept mainly to good ground I have no idea how he will handle very soft/heavy. IF he handles it, he out-runs odds of 8/1. If he doesn’t, you could name your price as he wont be winning. This is also a deep enough race as well with a few LTO winners who look upwardly mobile. So, it may be a race to just watch with the notebook. Albeit having said that, I did throw a muggy 1/2 point at him at 8s, ‘just in case’. Well, after the last 12 days of my ‘TTP ratings pointers’ I and others may have a bit more to play with than we did! (I suspect he will flounder in the mud, but you never know- hopefully they withdraw him if they don’t think he will cope)
That will be all for today.
Good luck with any bets. The men in white coats are waiting at the bottom of my Fox Appeal shaped cliff.