TTP Jumps Notes: 20/12/16 (complete)

 

RESULTS: End Week 12 CLICK HERE>>> 

WEEK 12 Totals

General Race Types: 8/48, 14p = -4.03

Micro Angles: 6/20,10p = +11.92

Total including multiple qualifiers: 14/68,24p = +7.89

Total 1x  1 point only :  10/58, 19p = -2.83

Bonus: 1/2,1p = +13

NOTE: A solid enough +10 points or so if backing everything once inc bonus stats, and you would take that as a weekly average. A slight loss on the week if ignoring the bonus stats. Around +34 points more IF just backing all qualifiers just once that qualified against the ratings (either just once or multiple times) It remains to be seen how that pans out over the coming weeks- and indeed the future of the ratings approach – I am in discussions with the relevant people as to their permitted use.

A non ratings 50/1 winner to boost the overall stats on Monday. I don’t think that was a confident wager (i threw £5EW at him late thinking if he placed that would be a solid return) but on paper it wasn’t impossible. I do wish I had glanced at the exchange tough- 150/1 BFSP. Gulp. I could have won £500 more for the same bet had I bothered to look. Amateur.

Moving on…

 

Qualifiers+ ratings+ notes …

 

TAUNTON

2.50

Ascendant (all hcnps) UP 8/1

NOTE: Trainer 2/13,4p last 14 days, so going well enough. While this horse isn’t getting any younger he ticks all race conditions, is back down to his last winning mark (before taking off the claim) and arrives here in form, back in the care of Farrelly. 6/1 seems fair enough to my eyes in what looks an open enough race, where there are not really any unexposed ‘could be anything’ types lining up.

 

3.20

Bus Named Desire (hncp chase) PU 8/1>20/1

NOTE: Trainer 0/14,2p last 30 days. Race conditions (going,class,distance,also a course/ CD, winner) are fine for the horse so in that sense no problems. Simply then about fitness – is 0/2,0p 121-365 days. The market can guide with this trainer- they are usually well backed or at least do not drift. If fully tuned up, would run her race.

 

3.50

Yur Next (all hncps + micro class) WON 9/2>3/1 

NOTE: Farelly again. This horse is just solid for the level and as long as he doesn’t start sulking again/’the blinker effect’ stops working, he should run his race again. Such is this poor level that this consistency can get you a long way and I doubt he will be far away again, in there pitching. Something may be better on the day but not much I can say to put you off. Should get a run for money over the last flight and his one paced plodding may be enough, esp if some others have an off day. One of those. But, he isn’t doing much different albeit only his second run at the trip. I would like them to make more use of him early, esp as isn’t loads of pace on paper in here. 9/2 fair enough in a poor race. May get beat but I am confident that my subjective judgment wont be bettering the ‘ratings pointer’ stats long term, when one qualifies against those.

 

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RATINGS POINTERS

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated 

none.

Top 3 

2.50 T – Ascendant- UP

3.50 T – Yur Next- WON 9/2

 

Geegeez Speed (Dr Peter May’s ratings)

Top Rated

none

Top 3 

3.50 T – Yur Next WON 9/2

 

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IMPORTANT NOTE: 

Today I have been in discussions with various people regarding my use of the ratings, specifically the speed ratings (use of HRB should be fine albeit I have emailed Chris and his team to check) that I access via Geegeez Gold. They licence these ratings from a Dr Peter May (website here>> if you are interested- that is NOT an affiliate link!) and having had an initial discussion with Matt it was felt I should speak to Peter. Unlike using ‘instant expert’ in Geegeez Gold, as an example, which still relies on my interpretation etc, using his ratings in this way was felt to be different and required permission/a discussion.

Well the good news is there is no bad news! Given I pay for access via Geegeez, and I am not actually repeating the ratings/am using them in a specific way, Peter saw no problem with my current approach. I have offered to send the odd donation every now and then etc.

So, we can carry on with our new test. Onwards…

 

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

14 Comments

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  • brilliant news ! josh about ttp/hrb / geegeez

    pendrem 19/12/16 6:51 PM Reply


  • further to above, by showing that the speed figures are dr p may’s, you are advertising for him and might get more subscriptions as a result

    pendrem 19/12/16 7:20 PM Reply


  • great to hear the above news,betting only £1 per selection i was thinking of cancelling,now i will continue and give the service another go.

    william fieseler 19/12/16 8:54 PM Reply


    • I hope you had £1 on Hartforth Bill! It has been a bit stop start over last 4/5 weeks in truth after the very good start, but it has/will pick up again. Has been bobbing along somewhat but that is the nature of the approach. Patience should be rewarded and fingers crossed the ‘ratings pointers’ add a new profitable dimension.

      Josh 20/12/16 12:17 PM Reply


  • My view on Yur Next: it’s a reluctant no bet for me. Should this horse be head of the market? I don’t think so, given that he reopposes Dropzone, who dashed clear of Yur Next off a slow gallop LTO. Surely by that logic, Dropzone should have a greater chance, despite a little swing in the weights. What’s more, I hate backing these one-paced horses, which Yur Next looks to be. He’d probably have to grind it out from the front, which would only play into Dropzone’s and other pace trackers’ hands. YN also doesnt look to have enjoyed leading in the past.

    Granted, Farrelly is a decent trainer and is capable of improving this horse, but at 9/2 I don’t want to bank on that.

    As James Willoughby once said, (something along the lines of): you’re not looking for a horse to repeat what’s on the form book. You’re looking for a horse capable of hitting a new top.

    The two mentioned will go close with a repeat performance but, according to Mr Willoughby, we should be looking for improvement. My question is, with Yur Next running over the same distance, track, going under the same jockey in the same headgear in a race likely lacking pace like last time, how likely is he to ‘hit a new top’?

    This may turn out to be a massive overthinking of a C5 midweek handicap, mind! We’ll see. Happy for some of you to prove me wrong.

    Never stop learning in this game, do we?

    Ali 20/12/16 12:40 AM Reply


    • Hi Ali, good luck with the leave, it may be wise- but he will have you sweating up the home straight at some point with any luck!! Probably before then plodding on 3rd at the one pace! My subjective mind will never better the ‘ratings pointers’ if indeed they continue as they have been (or drop down to 25-30% win sr long term) so I will just trust them for now! I am probably best spending time ensuring I don’t miss/profit as much as I can, from non-ratings qualifiers that may out-run their odds!

      Josh 20/12/16 12:19 PM Reply


      • oi oi!

        Yur Next wins and makes me look a fool. My loss is your gain I hope

        aallen 20/12/16 4:03 PM Reply


        • Yep, did that well enough! Consistency they key at that level, well, it was today! Appeared twice on ratings, I tucked in at 4/1. Was 9/2 in places but money was in Bet365 acc and taking best price every time can get you noticed!

          Josh 20/12/16 4:07 PM Reply


  • The Moore horses are out of form and so there is nor point me passing on non solid info. Perhaps there will be something for Boxing day? Also Gay Kellaway has nothing to tell you about at present. Bit of a lull.

    Whilst Yur Next is tied to the Farrell’s micro the price is not that good and so I will not get involved today. If anything comes up later I will post.

    martin colwell 20/12/16 11:21 AM Reply


    • Cheers Martin, yep, price in the eye of the beholder. I thought 9/2 was ok in a moderate race for a consistent horse albeit I am more in line with Ali’s views, given the ratings pointer I had a nibble.

      Josh 20/12/16 12:20 PM Reply


  • Ttp combined with the ratings, quite possibly the best thing you’ve come up with since I started reading the blog Josh! Might have to up my stakes if this run keeps on going lol And as a bonus I’ve got 2 books of Dr Mays to read. Great stuff 🙂

    James.b 20/12/16 4:51 PM Reply


    • Ah good stuff – I think he writes a blog on ATR’s site also, I will find a link. Well, he did email and tell me so I should spread the word!

      Haha – well, I think you may be right. I was confident I would come up with a good idea one day!! Yep I know what you mean about upping stakes, I have started to back double qualifiers as such- but, patience wins the race- the wheels could still come off! Albeit they look firmly bolted on at the moment.

      Josh 20/12/16 4:58 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Hopefully this new system will do the business. I’m instinctively not keen on betting blind on systems and if I try apply my own thoughts to it, tend to mess things up. I like the filtering approach you have taken.
    Started following it today with stakes of £5 per recommendation and a betting bank of £250. Will increase stake by £1 for every £50 profit. After one day the betting bank has increased to £290. So far so good!

    steved 20/12/16 7:38 PM Reply


    • Hi Steve, yep the early signs,after 12 days or so, are rather exciting. I mean if long term it settles down that ‘ratings pointers’ qualifiers are operating in the 30% SR zone, I think we would all be rather happy!

      Yea I tend to agree with you on the systems front- well,some I trust but I do like using my own eye/judgement on selections- even if just deciding whether to put more on than my standard systems stake etc.
      Certainly with the ratings it adds a level of sophistication above any subjective judgement that I can bring to the table- and yep I have messed up the odd runner, albeit before the ratings app I was probably around evens/slightly up,on losers avoided vs winners missed. This new approach does help reduce bets to a more comfortable level.
      Then I think, just a question of looking at any monster priced runners who are not ratings qualifiers, and working out whether to have a nibble on them- recent examples being Eastlake 33s and Hartforth 50s.

      BUT… Interestingly, before that 50/1 winners, backing all ratings qualifiers (inc double backing,Yur Next an example) had made around +70 points in 12 days, which was the same amount as backing all system qualifiers blind from day 1 in 12 weeks! So, plenty to ponder.

      They have certainly helped anyway. Long may it continue. But, proof will be in the live play.

      Josh 21/12/16 9:49 AM Reply


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