FREE DAILY POST: 20/12/16 (complete)

50/1 winner, jumps angles + Southwell Sires+ 6/1 Stats/Angles poke…

Well. A 5/2 winner for the ‘ratings shortlist’ and a 7/1 second for Top Billing- he bumped into one in fairness but if those cheekpieces continue to work he will be winning in the mud very soon – esp if able to get an easy lead. He had to work at various times to lead and while that would have taken something out of him, it didn’t make a difference to the result. Hopefully Richards can place him to make all in the coming weeks.

There was also a ‘non’ ratings winner on the TTP Stats. The horse was Hartforth who was running at Ayr. He only went and won at 50/1. Blimey. 150/1 BFSP – which is a sickening price when you have a last minute ‘oh god what if he wins’ EW bet on Bet365 and don’t even think to look at the exchange! Actually, when he hit 50s, given his chance on paper was ok and it was mainly about how fit he would be, I thought he might grab third or something and that would be a nice return. Anyway, that will pay for plenty of losers no doubt and was a good start to the week.

Backing all TTP qualifiers last week, including the bonus stats, made around a +10 points profit. Just backing the ‘ratings pointers’ qualifiers once, made an extra +34 points or so on top of that. We shall all see if that trend continues.

***

Onto Tuesday…

 

TIPS

None. Famine before the feast in terms of the 3m+ chasing game. Albeit I won’t be tipping in the King George – that is just a race to savour for me now the two Tizzard horses are lining up. But, there are a couple of other nice 3m+ chases from memory on Boxing day (a national at market rasen I always look at) and then we have The Welsh National.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

December Trainers 

12.45 Taunt – Beau De Brizais WON 3/1 / Beataboutthebush UP

 

All-Weather ‘Test’ 

Following on from my AW-Southwell post (found in free reports&systems tab above) I will put up any ‘qualifiers’

US Bred Angle (14/1< guide)

2.30 South – Pearl Spectre UP

Southwell Sires (use as starting point maybe)

12.00 – Blythe Prince UP

2.30 – Pearl Spectre UP / Zaeem UP

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

2.20 Taunt – Somerset Lias – 6/1 PU –(haha,oh that price was rather short!! One of those where you just smile, or you cry. No easy lead,sulked,win didn’t inspire him LTO,back to usual self. Awful. Moving on) this price seems a bit big to my eyes given I think/hope/expect that they will try and make all with him again here, given there are no other confirmed front runners on recent runs. He got to the front the last day after the first few fences and they didn’t see which way he went, winning for the first time in this new equipment combo. Winning may have done him the world of good and he could get this lot on the stretch. There is a slight niggle over the trip but he has ran well at it before and if he can dictate that will help. It doesn’t look a strong race and he is taking advantage of the new ratings rule whereby he can run at this level despite being 1lb over the band. The horse he thumped that day, who was getting an 8lb swing and may have come on for the run, is now a NR. That leaves the Fergal horse who is being smashed as if he is going to romp home – given he could have any amount in hand, and the fact the trainer can ready them (4/18 with chasers 365+ days off) I can see his case. But Somerset will test his jumping/fitness/soundness. Trehan Cross looks the only other one of interest to me if repeating/building on that last run. The rest look out of form having had a quick glance. I have had 1/2 point on at 6s, I should be entertained turning into the home straight with any luck. After that, who knows.

***

AW Bonus…

On a quiet enough day I will have a look at my guide to see if there are any qualifiers…

(ratings pointers… H3 = Top 3 HRB / G3 = Top 3 Geegeez Speed/Dr Peter May) 

Southwell

12.00 – Dancing Alpha – H3 2nd 3/1

2.00 – Oscars Journey UP / Sir Geoffrey UP (missed him earlier)

2.30 – Philba H3 2nd 8/1 / Mithqaal WON 5/1

3.30 – Ralphy Lad G3 UP

 

Kempton 

3.40 – Awaayil

 

**

That’s all for today.

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. Hi Josh / All

    2.30 – Crosse Fire 10.0 (Betway) standout generally 8.0 elswhere

    Well I put this one up last week and he lost all chance at the stalls missing the break totally under his amateur rider and losing many lengths which of course is fatal over the minimum trip but he did run on well and made up the lost ground at the finish just behind the bunch, K T O’Neill takes the ride tomorrow and knows the horse well winning 4 times with him over C & D, He runs off the same mark and is well drawn in 4, Below is what i wrote last week and
    can safely put a line through last weeks run

    “This fellow has a string of duck eggs to its name and has been running at various AW tracks with no success and his mark has tumbled accordingly, in fact there is only one track he has ever won at and one distance but he excels at it and he has that combination for the first time since March, If we look at his record at Southwell over 5F it reads 10 runs, 5 wins, 9 places in class 2, 4 & 5 off marks of 67, 68, 73. 81 & 85 his last run at the track was a winning one off 85 and he is back tomorrow off 75 with a 7lb claimer effectively taking his mark down to 68 in a class 5. He is drawn in 7 not perfect (lower tends to be best) but Powerful Wind is drawn next to him in 8 and is sure to be pushing the pace. Overall he has his perfect conditions and a great chance of improving those already excellent figures tomorrow.”

    So tomorrow he has a better draw and an experienced jockey that knows him well I’m on at 10.0 and had 2 points win 3 points place and expect a big run

    Good luck with your TTP + ratings Josh, looking at feedback they are going very well and the SR is excellent

    Cheers
    Steve

      1. Oh yes it is 6F….apologies he hasn’t tried this at Souhwell yet so market could be a good guide here if he drifts over double figures I would be concerned, Track, Jockey & handicap mark is ok trip is unknown

    1. Good luck Steve.

      Yep it has been a fun 15 days or so since I had that idea. If they can maintain around a 30% win SR long term I think we would take that! Time will tell but given the ratings are a constant, I can’t see why they would suddenly fall into a hole. Possibly a perfect fusion of trainer behaviour, and the ratings which place their form in the context of suitability to conditions/opposition, and against the clock etc. exciting times. But proof will be in the eating.
      Josh

      1. Well that was another misfire from Crosse Fire at the stalls but the ultimate sin really was backing a horse over 6F when I assumed it would be 5F….lesson learnt!, Back over 5F at Southwell I would be interested again but only “in running” if he breaks ok……A small EW on Stand Guard 5.10pm at 19.0 has softened the blow, onwards and upwards 🙂

        1. Ah, we have all made a mistake like that before- think I may have mixed up a hurdle and a chase once- I am sure there was a valid excuse! Maybe it was red wine related haha.

          Yep, my word he stood out on Geegeez Gold instant expert, the old boy. I left him, for my sins- everything looked good for an EW stab. Never mind. Well done for backing him.

          The carroll horse is short in 5.40, but I think he has a good chance of making all. Will watch with interest. Inexperienced rider may go too hard mind, will see if I have called that right.

          1. Ran well Josh, Was harrassed by the eventual winner first furlong and that one looked to be over-racing but still managed to pick up well at the finish, The two pulled a few lengths clear too read it well though.

  2. Oi oi!!!!

    Hartforth earns me a personal punting milestone and has hopefully done the business for some of you as well.

    My biggest price winner 1/2pt e/w. Half of that was with 365 so technically a 66/1 shot with BOG+

    Nearly double my P/L for the whole flat season from just one bet

    I personally hate the ‘boom boys’ but you have to say this certainly deserves a BIG BOOM!

    Well done for your work on the TTP, Josh

  3. hi josh, you know this 150 to 1 BFSP winner today that was 50 to 1, would i be right in thinking that it was the biggest priced TTP selection today? there must be a fair chance! maybe it might be worthwhile in having a daily selection that is the biggest TTP price. there was a 33 to 1 winner a week or so ago, that might be a qualifier for this too. maybe you could do this?

  4. Hi Josh

    In the race-card page of Horseracebase, I had a look at the Trainer figures for Hartforth ……clicking through to the trainer link on the site and using the option to analysis previous form upto 730 days provided me with some good numbers but the trainer had very little previous form with numbers of runners he has had at the meeting but they still gave him 50% Win & 50% Place, by far the best in the race compared to other trainers

    Not the easiest or quickest way to checkout a Trainers numbers on a busy days’ racing but it opens a door to be considered for the future when a Trainer targets a particular meeting.

    1. Hi Norman, yep many ways you can use those stats as a starting point – the starting point for that selection was the trainer’s record at the track in handicap hurdles last three years, and good to see him build on it.

  5. further to above josh, I am going to do it myself i.e. backing TTP biggest price daily on BFSP. calling it TTP ZONKER. yesterdays ZONKER was 150 to 1, sorry to remind you about that josh! if had backed it yesterday, means can go 5 months without backing another winner and still be in front! not many systems where you could say that!

    1. Good luck Malc – yep, interesting how that gets on! Indeed I don’t think there have been many go off in ‘zonker’ territory, 25/1,33/1+, but that is two winners in the 33/1+ zone. Probably wise to always have something on the real monsters! Albeit usually a long time between drinks. Interesting that both of those didn’t move in price- not like they started 10/1 and drifted, they stayed around the prices they were put in at , neither positive or negative market signals- in that sense.

        1. Ah he may have been Neil, I know a few people who got on at 66s, must have just touched that price in places during the morning – ‘officially’ declared on my records at his SP price of 50s, as I wasn’t certain- I didn’t look evening before. Dare say evens out- as sometimes I look in evening, sometimes take check around 8/9am. Some will get different prices etc etc but dare say all evens out over time!

          In that case, 25s, to 50s, clearly was a drift! I wouldn’t call that big though, unlike say from 8s/10s to that price. We shall see. Malc will keep an eye on that end for us!

  6. Been a busy couple of weeks with all the Xmas drinking etc so I haven’t posted on here much. Giveitachance (Taunton 15:50) ran well when tipped up last week and I mentioned that he should be winning when stepped up in distance so I am glad to see that connections have obliged. He ran a well handicapped horse close LTO (front free a decent way ahead of the rest) and this race doesn’t seem as strong. Horse has finished 1st and 3rd when returning within 7 days so that’s a further positive with the booking of Aidan Coleman an eye-catching one considering he only other ride is almost 3 hours earlier. Trainer form could be better but her last 2 runners have placed so they’re certainly not in the doldrums. I also want an e/w bet in the opener on Storming Strumpet. Tom George’s last 3 runners have all won so the stable is still flying. The jockey (son/nephew?) has a solid 3/12, 8 places for the trainer in his short career(has yet to ride for anyone else). It hasn’t fully worked out over fences but the horse looks well treated on her handicap hurdle debut going on past form (particularly the hurdle run over course and distance) and the trainer doesn’t send many here. Finally I want to have a small bet on Seve in the 14:40 at Kempton who drops back down to a class 4 (2/2 on AW) and is effectively running off the same mark as his win 2 stats ago if you take the jockey claim into account.

  7. I wouldn’t be overly worried about missing the 150s (though I admit I felt the same pain for a few seconds afterwards having loaded my tenner in at around 90s about 30 mins before the race).

    The reality is (from limited experience but enough I think to be sure of the point) that when you put pretty much anything on at BF SP it contracts the price (often markedly) .

    So our joint £15 would almost certainly have pushed it down to somewhere between 60 and 90 (I’m guessing but again based on watching similar movements in the past).

    Better than the 50s with 365 of course, but not as painful as missing out on a 150-1 shot.

    Actually I’ve never understood how BF get their SP. Clearly it’s on a Tote style basis, but I don’t recall seeing anywhere where you can see the liquidity in the pool. Any ideas, anyone?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.