FREE DAILY POST: 19/12/16 (complete)

Bloody Hell..

Below I have just repeated an update I have posted on the TTP Members Post…

TTP Results Update

I will update results for the week for tomorrow as usual (from Mon 12th-18th – which marks 3 montsh I think since first posted) but I have had a look at the results of the Ratings Pointers for the first full week, from 12th to Sun 18th… (and my word…)

So, here we are looking at all TTP stats qualifiers that were also in the top 3 ratings of HorseRaceBase and Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings.

(NOTE: This idea just came to me which given the tools I pay for etc, seemed to make sense, and helped bring a bit more science to analysing selections,against my sometimes questionable subjective judgement! It was also after a blunt realisation that my trainer stats pack was throwing up too many qualifiers for my own personal comfort, and no doubt that of some members- in fact that is probably the main reason people unsubscribe. Still, just backing all qualifiers on the nose systematically has had good results. But you would need to start with small stakes and betting X number of horses a day on average isn’t for everyone. I wanted to find a way to improve on the performance while reducing the number of bets if possible..) 

I don’t believe HRB ratings take account of ‘speed’ albeit I am not sure. Geegeez uses Dr Peter May’s speed ratings but I don’t believe they take account of any trainer stats/patters/track form etc. So, in theory, this approach should improve on the basic performance of the stats….

I can’t think this first week will be the norm- these stats will drop down a tad, but, the ratings stats for those 7 days…

  1. ALL Ratings Qualifiers Backed Multiple Times (so a horse backed twice if appearing on both HRB top 3 or Geegeez top 3): 35 bets / 18 wins / 22 places (inc wins) = +59.39 points
  2. ALL TOP RATED Qualifiers (backed multiple times) = 10 bets / 7 wins / 7 places / +28.22 points 
  3. All Ratings Qualifiers Backed ONCE (qualify at least once against a rating,not backed multiple times if qualifies twice): 26 bets / 12 wins / 15 places / +44.17 points 
  4. HorseRaceBase Top 3 Rated (inc top): 9/17,11p = +31.47 points
  5. Geegeez Speed Top 3 Rated (inc top): 9/18,11p = +28 points

Blimey. We shall see how that continues moving forwards. That could be an outlier of a week – I would have expected/been happy with around a 25% win SR across the various permutaions. Hitting around 50% win strike rates is just madness, and well, if that continues, then Merry Christmas!

It is looking like the best idea I have ever had. Time will tell if that is correct. If it is, some would say that is a bargain for £10 per month 🙂

***

Onto Monday…

 

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TIPS

none.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

K Lee Chasers (12/1< guide)

12.35 H – Mr Bachster DNQ

3.10 H – Aces Over Eights DNQ

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase portfolio (LIVE TEST)

Hurdle

2.30 Ayr – Conquer Gold UP

3.00 Ayr – Top Billing 2nd 7/1>3/1

 

December Trainers

3.20 Chelm – Flying Fantasy (14/1<) UP

 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Nothing jumping out at me.

 

BONUS… TTP Ratings Pointers from AYR…

(stats qualifiers against my TTP jumps stats pack, cross referenced against the following ratings…)

AYR

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

None.

Top 3 Rated (so in effect 2nd or 3rd rated)

3.30 A – Better Getalong  WON 5/2

Geegeez Speed 

Top Rated

1.20 A – Willie Hall – UP

2.30 A – Another Mattie – UP

Top 3 Rated

3.00 A – Top Billing 2nd 7/1>3/1

 

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That will be all for today. Good luck with any bets.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

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  • hi josh, as you say regarding TTP/HRB/GEEZ ratings, blimey! just imagine if that is the norm! this time next year rodney!

    pendrem 19/12/16 9:44 AM Reply


    • Hi Malc, haha – well, the 4/5 days before the start of last week echoed those results also. So, who knows! Surely that cannot be the norm. It just can’t. But then the HRB/Geegeez ratings are a constant- how they are formulated etc isn’t changing etc. Given we have no odds caps, a 20-25% SR should leave us with decent profits still. Give it a month and we will have a firm idea I think.

      This time next year… we will all be betting on the exchanges! PP and Bet365 may have even closed me down by then if they continue like this.

      We have the flat as well…I may enjoy the flat season for once! Pondering what/how to approach that stats wise , in terms of track stats etc. Summer Jumps also.

      Josh

      Josh 19/12/16 9:49 AM Reply


  • Incredible results, let’s hope they continue! Based on what you’ve found so far, maybe it’d be a useful filter to use for any other tips / fancies we have. I suppose what is happening is that the odds range is also being tightened further – I’d have thought it’s fairly rare for the bigger priced selections to also make the GG / HRB top 3. On a week like last week where there aren’t any big priced winners (I think Ultimate Dream at ~9/1 was the biggest) then the filters will be cutting out a lot of the deadwood and improving on the bare selections. The big test will be if we have a period when there are some winners at double digit odds. Maybe it’d also be worth keeping an eye on the ROI of the various filtered / unfiltered results. Maybe (hopefully?) it’ll then be the case that backing all the selections provides a bigger points profit, but the ROI is still higher with the filtered results.

    Neil 19/12/16 10:20 AM Reply


    • yep, many ways to slice and dice. Yep we had Ultimate… also Automated yesterday from the Irish bonus stats was top rated HRB, 14/1.

      Having got all excited though I have just had a chat with X, about using such ratings etc – and there are some questions there as to me using them so openly, in the way I am, on this blog/members club.
      I subscribe to both HRB/Geegeez… but given I am using the ratings aspects there are some questions around that which naively I hadn’t thought through.

      So, I will bring my excitement levels down a tad until I have had explored the issues further with various people.

      Josh 19/12/16 10:28 AM Reply


  • hi josh, how much does it cost to subscribe to HRB and geegeez to obtain ratings and speed figures. i have suggestion regarding the problem of using them to decide which TTP to back. if continue to be really successful , you might sweeten both HRB and geegeez by saying you will double monthly subs to £20 instead of £10, and you can then donate extra subs equally to HRB and geegeez, both will then be getting extra income for their services. i will gladly pay £20 monthly if continue to be half as good.

    pendrem 19/12/16 12:31 PM Reply


    • HRB is £10 a month, Geegeez is £28.

      Neil 19/12/16 12:36 PM Reply


    • Solutions will be found Malc i’m sure, I won’t discuss on here openly but discussions are under way. It is a ratings use specific issue.

      Josh 19/12/16 12:44 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Further to the comments above, since 30/9/16 I have been monitoring how your
    TTP qualifiers have performed when they were top of the HRB ratings.
    I have only followed standard handicap jump races and excluded all novice
    handicaps, NHF and Irish races.

    I am rather old school being a pen and paper man, but believe that the results
    that follow are as accurate as they can be, although they do miss out on one
    Sunday’s racing in October when I did not have access to a computer.

    Winners Selections Points Profit To SP

    30/9/16-31/10/16 10 31 19.86
    1/11/16-30/11/16 15 38 26.58
    1/12/16-18/12/16 4 16 – 4.72
    Totals 29 85 41.72

    I hope that this has been of some interest.

    stumac 19/12/16 3:26 PM Reply


    • Hi Stu, many thanks, that is of great interest – seems around a solid 30% win SR over a decent enough period and is probably around where I would expect. Yep, there has only been one top rated Bonus stats (novice handicaps/Irish) qualifier last week, and he won at 14/1. That looks a solid set of stats and gives some confidence for such types moving forward. And that is at SP, and I suspect would be improved further if able to bet evening/morning/bog. Thanks for that, appreciated.

      Josh 19/12/16 3:41 PM Reply


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