FREE DAILY POST: 17/12/16 (complete)

 

TIPS

3.00 Ascot

IRISH SAINT – 1 point win – 8/1 (PP/Betfs) 7/1 (gen) UP

MINELLA DADDY – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) 2nd

 

This looks a fascinating race not least because quite a few have stamina questions,inc Irish Saint. But, Go Conquer,Eduard and Le Mercurey fall into that group also.

There are a couple of interesting stats … Age 5-8 has been key the last 8 years, and the last 8 winners all ran 21-45 days ago also. Applying those two would leave a shortlist of Annacoty/Eduard/Irish Saint/Minella Daddy/Fourth Act/Go Conquer

Minella Daddy… well I am not sure what he has done wrong here or why he is quite this big in the market. He is in form, progressive,definitely stays,is a solid jumper and there could be much more to come. This is a step up in class but he deserves to take his chance I with luck in running I can’t see him being far away here. 9s looked to big to my eyes given he is the solid option here who I know should get round and will stay through the line,and who is in form. I am not sure there is another horse in here who you can say those three things about.

Irish Saint… well a slight stab that this trip may be fine/may improve for it. The prep run over hurdles suggests this has been a target to me for a trainer who has won this race before. He has some smart form and does have a touch of class about him. He is on the shortlist and Nicholls is in red hot form still. He has a win over 22f here which suggests this extra couple may be within range and out of the unknown stayers looks most interesting at the prices. Hopefully he jumps ok as he could have a bit in hand here. Worth a go at 8s I thought.

The rest…well Go Conquer is a danger and not much I can say to put you off him..I thought 5s was only ok given he does step up in trip and class and has both to prove. I don’t know if he was outstayed the last day,outbattled,beaten by a better horse or just got tired. But,he loomed up as if he was going to win,and didn’t. But,he is unexposed and the track is clearly no problem. He will also race prominently. He is a danger to all but his priced didn’t seem overly generous in a race like this. He may go very close though,possibly saver material.

Eduard is interesting and at his best has some class..but he returned after 600+ days the last day and there is a small chance he bounces- again he has a stamina question but looks like he may relish this trip now. If he does I could be in trouble but in Irish Saint I went with the slightly younger legs who may just have a tad more class and who has at least won over 22f. It was close. I can see the case for him and why some would take a poke and I may have got it wrong. Not a shock winner. Just if he comes on for that last run/doesn’t bounce and if he stays. If he does both he will be right there. The same can be said about Le Mercurey- a touch of ability and stamina is the unknown. He could go close but always seems a bit tricky and had a hard enough race 2 weeks ago. Not a shock winner but I preferred his stablemate,even more so as he was in what has been the right rest pattern for this race, at least recently.

I think that covers the top 5 in the market and I would be surprised if one of them didn’t take this. I cant have the rest. Fourth Act is interesting but can hit a fence. Most of the others look out of form or may need the run/have future targets in mind.

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JUMPS ANGLES

V Williams Chasers November (tracking Dec) (16/1< guide)

1.30 Hay – Gardefort UP

1.50 Asc – Marcilhac UP 33/1

3.00 Asc – Tenor Nivernais 3rd 33/1

 

Tom George Chasers

12.35 Newc – Battle of Shiloh WON 6/4

2.55 Newc – Bun Doran WON 6/4

 

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

1.30 Hay – Gino Tail WON 10/1>13/2

 

Saturday TJC (any odds)

12.40 Asc – Wylde Magic UP

 

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – Live Test 

(in the order they appear saved in my HRB acc…)

Hurdle

3.15 Hay – Draytonian – UP

Chase

1.50 Asc- Marcilhac – UP

1.30 H – Gardefort – UP

2.55 N – Bun Doran WON 6/4/ Bernadelli- UP

1.30 H – Ulbatique UP

1.50 A – Join The Clan UP/ Overtown Express UP

1.30 H  – Raes Creek UP

2.40 H – Yala Enki WON 7/1

 

December Trainers

(main micro angles…)

3.15 H – Draytonian UP

1.50 A – Pull The Chord UP

2.40 H – Vieux Lille 2nd 7/1

11.50 H – Hollywood All Star – UP

12.55 H – Hey Bill – UP

3.10 Ling – Cherry Kool (14/1<) 3rd

 

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That will be all for today

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • early thoughts for Saturday as I am off to Cambridge on Saturday for Christmas pick up from Uni!

    Golden Spear wins the 3.35 Ascot, now 9/2. Regal Encore each way, 3.00 Ascot, 20/1.

    Also winning are Cloudy Dream, 12.00 HP; Top Notch, 1.15 Asc; Unowhatimeanharry, 2.25 Asc.

    My betting tanks are rolling across the battlefield towards the bookies!

    martin colwell 16/12/16 9:47 PM Reply


    • Whoosh. Well done Martin, just clocked that you tipped Regal Encore at 20s. Wallop
      Well done. Clearly on a going day/had more luck in running than had at times. Previous Fez bumper 2nd always had ability and that Punch run showed he had ability to win a decent pot like that. I clearly wasn’t so forgiving for those last two runs! In hindsight fact BG kept faith and they pitched him into Hennessy was some indication as to what they thought. Well done for piecing that together pre race! Don’t think you will ever struggle in this game if you can pick out those types.

      Josh 17/12/16 5:13 PM Reply


      • I am getting more like you Josh, picking horses with P’s in their form! Regal Encore does have to put it all together and not one to trust too much but 20/1 worth a punt. Thought Minella daddy was going to do it but RE stormed home late.

        martin colwell 17/12/16 6:20 PM Reply


    • Genius Malcolm, thanks backed all of yours, up 13 points from yours, 22 pts for the day. Even missed Dr Hardman’s free tip Brain Power at 18/1. Keep the tanks rolling!

      lately 17/12/16 5:17 PM Reply


      • Sic Martin!

        lately 17/12/16 5:27 PM Reply


  • Good luck Martin,

    I will be watching the action from the trenches,cant find anything to merit an over the top attack

    gearoid180468 17/12/16 9:43 AM Reply


  • Just love reading your free comments the most informative post out there keep up the good work happy Christmas

    Linda Taylor 17/12/16 10:37 AM Reply


    • ha thanks Linda, always interesting I hope, often informative, sometimes profitable!! Happy Christmas to you too. Josh

      Josh 17/12/16 11:54 AM Reply


  • Holly molly Josh, I know I’ve said this before and it is rare to have so many selections but thats quite an outlay the weekend before Xmas. I would be fascinated to know if you are backing everything at £20 per point and most at 1point wins? As thats a £420 staked. Obviously you would hope to win back 🙂

    jim 17/12/16 11:26 AM Reply


    • Hi Jim, I am in a rush this morning so will keep this brief… in short no I wont be. I only bet £20 per point on my tips as a matter of course/the minimum. The systems vary… I DO NOT back the handicap hurdle/chase portfolio systematically as it is very much a live test, and it would be foolish to dive into that amount with those as they are untried in live play.

      The other systems have been around for a while and as with the 25/1 winner for McPherson yesterday have been ticking along just fine. The Venetia one ‘track December’ I haven’t been backing systematically as I dont want to give back all the profit from Novembers system which worked again.
      Likewise the December trainers… I only use those as a guide as they are never proven really – ideally I would have enough time to look at each horse but such is my day today I don’t – and as such haven’t backed many of them. I have focused my own punting on my tips and my members TTP ratings shortlist today- I know I am probably going to miss the odd winner but life gets in the way sometimes!
      How you use them is up to you. As always, start with small stakes and build up/paper trade.
      Josh

      Josh 17/12/16 11:58 AM Reply


  • Hi all,
    Few I really fancy today at big prices,
    Big brother George 12.05New
    Alto des mottes 12.55 Hay
    Mister flip flop 3.25 New
    Fergall 3.35 Asc
    De vous a moi 2.40 Hay

    Good luck all

    jarrodholmes68 17/12/16 11:56 AM Reply


  • Oh and I have lumped on gardefort in the 1.30 Hay with ut majeur aulmes following him home

    jarrodholmes68 17/12/16 12:03 PM Reply


  • hi josh, good start for TTP /HRB/GEEGEEZ first one won @ 9/2. 8 to go

    malcolm pendrey 17/12/16 12:25 PM Reply


  • hi josh, TTP/HRB/GEEGEEZ have struck again, no problem with it being saturday, i have made + 11.50 level stakes profit backing all of them. what time are they usually on site? i want to back them as soon as poss.

    malcolm pendrey 17/12/16 3:46 PM Reply


    • Yep just in car on way back from Brighton. Was a nice surprise to see Clyne come up on sporting life as having won! Very happy with how ratings have gone so far.
      Quals posted by 2pm Tues-Sat. Sundays it depends on what I am doing on Saturday! Sunday morning as a worse case and same on Mondays. Ratings wise … I can get geegeez speed up early, HRB depends on when cards are uploaded, can be 3/4pm.

      If the first 10 days or so are an indication/true reflection of performance then I think it’s safe to say that’s my best idea yet and very exciting moving forwards. Clyne continued fine form of the ‘double qualifiers’ also.

      Josh 17/12/16 3:57 PM Reply


      • Not just your best idea pure genius.loved watching clyne come in today.keep up the good work josh .

        jamie2255 17/12/16 5:01 PM Reply


        • Ironically nobody saw it, live on tv, because of the thickest fog you can imagine, the commentator couldn’t commentate, the stewards couldn’t see who went passed the finishing post, it was a good 5 mins after the race that anybody knew the result, I think they asked the jockeys! The Racing Post cannot give the distances, most bizarre they let the race run, but not complaining Clyne even drifted from 4/1 to 6/1. Do watch it on Bet365 racing archive, hilarious, the commentator even guessed at 4 potential winners of the 9 runner field, none of them Clyne.

          lately 17/12/16 5:27 PM Reply


          • clyne was 31/1 on betfair just before the winning post.

            mozzer 17/12/16 6:05 PM Reply


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