TTP Jumps Notes: 15/12/16 (complete)

EXETER

2.35

Castarine (all hncps + hncp c) UP

NOTE: trainer 1/9,2p last 14 days. The horse made an encouraging reappearance the last day and a repeat of that seems him in the mix. He is unexposed enough over fences still. (2/6,3p jumping) The drop in trip is the question but has yet to prove he can’t handle it. The way he stayed on the last day raises doubts but the booking of Fehily is interesting. Given he stays further, it could be that they try and race handily/make all. If getting to the front and in a rhythm, he could be impossible to peg back. Can’t rule him out.

 

3.45

Thunder Pass (hncp h) UP

NOTE: Pipe ‘in form’ 6/29,7p the last 14 days. This one is 0/5,0p over hurdles and has some questions to answer now. But, it looks a weak enough race and he gets first time blinkers- they could be the magic ingredient, I think they need to be. Stamina is an unknown also, but again may improve for it, you never know. One of those where he could run well, or be tailed off. He is 4th on the HRB ratings also, only 3 ‘points’ behind the top 3 who all have the same score.

 

TOWCESTER

1.10

Ultimate Dream (micro distance) WON 9/1 (-20pR4) 7.2/1

NOTE: Jonjo’s are going better albeit still hard to predict. This one is 0/8,1p over hurdles and was beaten a distance the last day in a 6 runner race. Maybe that proper soft ground wasn’t ideal. He ran ok here on seasonal reappearance 2 starts ago and he is hard to rule out just yet, in what is a poor enough race. Again, a bit like that Pipe horse above, anything could happen- albeit at least he is in the top 3 geegeez speed ratings.

 

***

My View: not much to add- hard t be overly confident about ruling out any- there are reasons why they could all go close.

 

***

RATINGS

The results after 6 days for these are starting to look quite exciting. We shall see how they play out over the coming days/weeks but so far…

Top Rated Horses, both ratings,backed multiple times: 5/15,8p = +17.5 points (only 1 of those has appeared on both, Proud Gamble)

Top 3 Rated,as above (and in addition to those above): 8/32,20p = +13.75 points

Horse Appearing on both ratings (anywhere) backing just once: 4/12,9p = +10.5 points

All Qualifiers, All Ratings, Just backing ONCE (regardless of how many times they qualify): 8/34,18p = +16.5 points.

Those could be a fluke but it would be rather exciting if they continue moving forward. As you would expect I think, the win and place % are far exceeding the base set of results for just the TTP qualifiers. How you use them/play them, is up to you, but hopefully that info helps. I am finding it useful.

 

TODAY’S RATINGS POINTERS

Horse Race Base

Top rated

none.

Top 3 

2.35 E – Castarine UP

 

Geegeez Speed

Top rated

none.

Top 3 

1.10 T – Ultimate Dream WON 9/1 (-20pR4) 7.2/1

 

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