FREE DAILY POST: 13/12/16 (complete)

Ah well for a drab poor quality Monday that wasn’t too bad with the Bonus Trainer Track Profiles  ‘ratings shortlist’ producing two good winners and just over +6 points on the day. (as always you can take a 7 day free trial HERE>>> and see if my Members content is for you or not)

Using the ratings to help shortlist/give more confidence has had a good start: In the 4 days since I started doing that the combined Top 3 HorseRaceBase ratings and Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings are: 34 bets / 6 wins / 17 wins or places / +15.75 points. Geegeez Top rated is showing minor early promise… 2/6,2p, +15 points. We shall see if those stats are a fluke or something to build on. It has been notable how consistent they have been, with 50% winning or running in the top 3, a few of those placed horses going close. Anyway, enough of that…

 

***

TIPS

1.40 Wincanton

So Fine – 1 point win – 7/1 (bet365/lad/betway) 6/1 (general) PU – went amiss sadly when leading,jumping went badly left at one fence and PU,as if feeling something- was in a nice enough rhythm)

Butlergrove King – 1/2 point win – 14/1 (WH) 12/1 (general) UP (a ‘another day ride,given held up-some promise, he will make all around Ludlow one day!) 

The less said about the winner the better there. I will keep my thoughts to myself. Smacks head on table as I read that write up again. I think the definition of value punting is backing a horse that you think may out-run their odds etc. Next time. 

 

So Fine… I think he is worth chancing at these odds because of marked drop in handicap mark (4 runs ago he was racing off OR129 over fences,115 here) and the drop in class. In any code this is the weakest race he has lined up in arguably since his C4 novice chase days in 2012. He clearly isn’t getting any younger but this is only his 8th start over fences, his win coming in a beginners chase around Kempton. The Newbury and Ascot chase runs last season showed some promise, glimmers, and this is no C2 handicap chase. He lines up against a moderate bunch here. Hobbs is also in some form again, 8/31,15p last 14 days. Two other things that caught the eye – last season he returned in the same hurdle as he did this season, and was tailed off there. He wasn’t pulled up but he did tail off from around 3/4 from home, as he did the last day. He won his next start. That gives some confidence that he could come on a bundle for it. If he jumps around he should out-class this moderate bunch for me. The ground is also a question – they were due rain today and possible heavy showers tomorrow- well if this does go soft he won’t mind, whereas it could negatively affect some of the others in this. He can cope with the current going but there shouldn’t be an excuse on that front. Johnson is also back in the saddle. At 7s,6s I thought worth a stab. He could be gone at the game, or he wins this comfortably – I think it could be one of the two.

Butlergrove King – well I wanted to take a stab at a double figure price as he is fairly lightly raced over fences and I fancied him at Ludlow recently before the meeting was abandoned. Nothing has really changed since then, the track is similar enough and the same reasons apply. I fancied him at Worcester in the summer where something went amiss and he was tailed off. He returned at Chepstow after some time off and was held up out the back and never got involved- strange for an habitual front runner I thought. Anyway, there are no out and out front runners in here and the hope is that he tries to make all. I think he prefers decent ground but he has an ok run on heavy so softer may be ok. The trainer is 2/13,4p here all runners also. I was happy to throw 1/2 a point at him at those odds. Those last two runs do temper some enthusiasm, as does the recent form of the trainer. But, he could have track position here.

Pace- so, I hope they try and make all. If he is held up then he will be getting a ‘not today’ ride. So Fine may track him and hopefully they both have it between then from a long way out. Royale Salute, Gary Charm and Carloswayback have been held up recently and will hopefully not get involved.

Dangers…

Royal Salute is short at 11/4 given the massive stamina question – that price seems ridiculous to my eyes- he may stay, he may relish it, I don’t care. 11/4 is too short in my book. He also has a rise in class to contend with. At 11/4 you do not want those two questions needing an answer. Not for me. Ultimatum Du Roy is from an in form stable and is in form himself, so could clearly go well. 7/2, 4/1 is ok, without being overly generous for me. That was a weak race, or not the strongest, the last day and he will need a bit more here for me. He has never won back to back races either and this is his 3rd outing within a month. I won’t be shocked if he wins but didn’t want to jump at 4/1, 7/2. Likewise Thegreendalerocket is in form and has a chance- 9/2 may be fair enough – I worry for him if the rain does arrive. I don’t really like the 49 day break- seems an odd amount of time and longer than ideal for an in-form horse whose best runs have come when returning within the month- but, that could be nothing, just a question. Going RH is also a question, 0/3,0p all handicaps, 1/5,3p LH. Only a minor niggle but one nonetheless. He is unexposed in this sphere and his last race has produced a couple of winners. Of all those above So Fine in the market, he would be the biggest danger for me, esp if the rain stays away/doesn’t get into ground.

The rest I was happy to leave. Sun Wild Life was just a bit too poor the last day for me and his stamina may be stretched if this goes soft. I want to see a bit more from him. Carloswayback is interesting and I would take note if market support. He didn’t jump/travel well the last day but stayed on over 20f, in what was a moderate race. He is inconsistent and isn’t getting any younger but I wouldn’t be shocked if he outran his odds of 16/1. If the selections run their races though I don’t think he is good enough to trouble them.

The two Pipe horses are headscratchers – I don’t know if connections are plotting and planning with those- one day, when their marks are so low, and they look out of form, they are going to be smashed in and bolt up. Or they are just mediocre. Gary Charm had a lot of form in France and is fairly exposed, but that form was all around 20f and I have seen nothing yet to suggest he stays this trip. The other one, Cafe, is more interesting but again didn’t do much LTO, and only plugged on in the hurdle race before that. He looks the better stayer but I want to see more. Any market moves should be noted for the pair. Just too many questions for me, even at their prices.

So, that’s the lot I think. It doesn’t look the strongest of races and looks So Fine’s best opportunity for a while over fences, if he can put it all together. The first few fences are critical- if he jumps well, is travelling well, and holding a position, you would like to think the others are in trouble. He may not travel well, he may hit a fence and wonder where his hurdles have gone. 7s allowed that poke I think, due to the ratings/class drop. Oh and his record second time out after an autumn seasonal reappearance is decent…  1,1,1… X 

***

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – LIVE TEST

Hurdle

12.20 Cat- Kisumu- UP

Chase

1.40  Winc – Cafe De Paris UP / Gary Charm UP (11/1< best)

 

December Trainers

1.40 Winc- So Fine- PU

12.30 South – Bring On A Spinner (14/1<) WON 5/1>5/2 

 

**

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

Nope nothing else today.

 

Good luck with any bets.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

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  • Paddy Watch

    Paddy had a nice winner today as Did Fergal O Brien so no worries on form for stable
    The major worry for tomorrows selection is O Briens 0/16 at Wincanton.This would be an instant reason for me not to back any Trainers runners

    Barney Dwan is to short in price but should run well,Im still waiting will need to improve greatly to be involved in the 3.40 but I have backed worse 33/1 shots

    3.40 Wincanton Im Still Waiting 1/2pt e/w 40/1 Bet365-price went out while writing

    Running Total +32.5

    gearoid180468 12/12/16 7:22 PM Reply


  • Evening Josh,

    Having tipped him up twice only to see him withdrawn I am with you on So Fine. My only concern is if he was pulled because something wasnt quite right with the horse since it wouldnt have been ground related I dont think. Assuming all ok he really should win this.

    I also want to have an e/w on Giveitachance in the 15:10 at Wincanton. Back into a class 5 for the first time in over 3 years where he is 3/5. He likes the track having finished 1st and 3rd in 2 previous trips here. Nick Schofield who is 5/13, 8 places returning onbaord is a plus. Now back down to 1lb below his handicap mark. Trainer has had a 3rd today so not too worried about the yard form. Looks like one of only 2 likely front runners which should help in a big field (most of his winning has been done in double digit fields where as the front two in the market don’t have much big field experience). Obviously there could be one or two unexposed ones but looks a solid e/w pick.

    Nick Mazur 12/12/16 7:44 PM Reply


    • Hi Nick,
      Yep there is a slight niggle there but given how well he has ran before on second start I think there was enough – and he has been tailed off before albeit not PU – he did run well to a point at least, not as though always out the back. They do reach for tongue tie again, and he has worn it in the past- that isn’t a positive either but he should be up to going close here. It may be he isn’t firing but was worth a roll of the dice for me. An interesting little contest.

      Josh 13/12/16 8:58 AM Reply


    • Not a bad run from Giveitachance for 3rd although probably needs further which was the only concern. Hopefully he wont get put up for this.

      Nick Mazur 13/12/16 3:29 PM Reply


  • Have Tonganui noted for handicaps in my tracker after its Newton Abbott run two starts ago,finishing a never nearer but staying on third behind black cotton (rated 134) and djarkalin (123).
    Horse allotted a mark of 109 which looks workable given its 7 length third. Fry 1/6 2 places with handicap debutants at course last 5 years.
    Novice handicap hurdles not really my bag but in the tracker for a reason so will have an ew play at workmanlike odds.
    Leon

    Leon 12/12/16 7:51 PM Reply


    • Good luck Leon, yep has run well to a point a couple of times and this looks a shocker of a race, yard in form, and could see more on handicap debut. Can see why you are tempted at those odds- I would personally like to see a bit of market support but sometimes the market doesn’t have a clue! GL.

      Josh 13/12/16 9:00 AM Reply


  • Good Evening Gents , it appears we have a “full house ” on So Fine … im also keen … noted he was backed on Thursday but pulled out before the race ( ground ) .. dropped to a nice mark and wouldnt be the first of this trainers horses to win on their 2nd outing (Sykes .. lamb n cod etc ) there is money for this as well ..was 9/1 in places early doors (ive missed the boat ).. Also thought Grand March 2.40 is due to win soon price is short enough at 3/1 but his turn isnt far away .

    Good Luck

    Tonyj 12/12/16 8:31 PM Reply


    • Good luck Tony – well the poor horse has at least a stone burden given I like him, and the fact a few of us seem to means he will have to be well in no doubt haha. Feels like it could go one of two ways with him but was worth a play at around 6s for sure to my eyes.

      Josh 13/12/16 9:03 AM Reply


    • So fine ticks all the boxes but there is one thing that
      is troubling me with him.

      Hobbs fits a tongue strap for the first time
      to me this suggests the horse may have some breathing issues

      The TS may help his breathing and he would win a street if showing his best form
      but don’t be surprised if the horse does struggle to get its breath it runs a shocker.
      so I would take an unusual approach
      back for a win at 11/2 for 10 points and lay him for 16 points at 5/4 in the place market

      if it wins you win 35 points
      un placed shows a 6 point profit
      ok if he is 2nd or 3rd you lose 30 points
      but I Think it is a case of win or bust today so looks a fair play to me

      PETER WALKER 13/12/16 10:44 AM Reply


      • small 6 point profit in the So Fine race
        so handy start
        hammered Brigadoon in the place market at Southwell

        Peter walker 13/12/16 1:52 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    Had a hectic week and not been able to post much up but hope some of you spotted the “Warfront” running at Dundalk last friday 12/1 was available most of the day…I have 3 of real interest at Southwell tomorrow and will start with the strongest….

    2.30 – Crosse Fire 5.6
    This fellow has a string of duck eggs to its name and has been running at various AW tracks with no success and his mark has tumbled accordingly, in fact there is only one track he has ever won at and one distance but he excels at it and he has that combination for the first time since March, If we look at his record at Southwell over 5F it reads 10 runs, 5 wins, 9 places in class 2, 4 & 5 off marks of 67, 68, 73. 81 & 85 his last run at the track was a winning one off 85 and he is back tomorrow off 75 with a 7lb claimer effectively taking his mark down to 68 in a class 5. He is drawn in 7 not perfect (lower tends to be best) but Powerful Wind is drawn next to him in 8 and is sure to be pushing the pace. Overall he has his perfect conditions and a great chance of improving those already excellent figures tomorrow.

    12.30 – Bring on a Spinner 6.2
    This fellow is lightly raced with only 7 runs to date but already is a perfect 2 from 2 at Southwell, Both of those wins were over 5F in class 6 contests and tomorrow its 6F in a class 5 so the main questions to answer are can he handle the extra distance and the rise in class? Well he has raced 4 times since those wins all on turf 2 being over 6F and the comments say faded / weakened but they were in class 4 events and if we look at the sire “Kheylef” its progeny has won 10 times over this 6F at Southwell and interestingly the Dam “Posy Fossil” has had 4 progeny runs at Southwell with 3 wins and a place up to a mile so stamina should not be an issue. Class wise he is only 3lb higher than when hosing up in his latest Southwell win and his trainer in handicaps in the last 2 years is 9 runs, 3 wins, 5 places and as Josh has shown above is one of the trainers to follow at the track in December, So overall I think he is certainly worth a play.

    3.00 – Llewellyn 7.2
    Well this fellow has been around the block with 68 career runs 22 on the AW and his only 2 wins on the AW have been over this track & distance, so why him today? Firstly the handicapper has given him a real chance dropping him to a mark of 62 and running in a class 6, his 2 wins have been off 62 and 67 here in class 5 events, He is also reunited with Mr P Dennis claiming 5 who rode him to both wins here and the last time he rode him over C & D he was winning off 67, Draw 3 is perfect for this front runner and the only possible pace pressure will come from Dr Red Eye drawn 5 and sometimes he misses the break so an uncontested lead is possible and that’s where he is shown to best effect.

    Best of Luck
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 12/12/16 10:57 PM Reply


    • Cheers Steve… yep I did have a nibble on him, not at 12s mind- was late spotting. That horse, as he was when he won the time before, was a qualifier against my AW stats for that trainer. I do need to track the war front angle more closely! Good luck with those today.

      Josh 13/12/16 9:04 AM Reply


      • Yes the trainer is interesting he seems to be picking up horses that have lost there way and revitalising them, This one was winning in the 90’s for Ed Dunlop before been passed on to G Moore and dropped into the 70’s before he picked him up and got him on the sire’s fav surface effectively winning off 81 on Friday 12/1 looked great considering the above and that the horse had just won a fortnight earlier at the track. Good Luck with yours today too Josh will be recording to watch back later.

        Steve Wiseman 13/12/16 9:38 AM Reply


        • That’s the first one in! Well done Steve, had a nibble at around 4s – all of his ‘December Qualifiers’ have run well actually, one of them very unlucky not to win also. They are clearly in good form. First time blinkers I believe as well- all seemed to do the trick. Well done.

          Josh 13/12/16 12:43 PM Reply


  • Scott Dixons 3 at southwell tomorrow all have great chances on form through the instant expert tab, one winner since July for Dixon which makes it even more intriguing, all 3 very well backed! 12:30 2:30 3:30

    Jack 12/12/16 11:06 PM Reply


    • Drinks on you Jack if they all come in! 🙂

      Josh 13/12/16 9:04 AM Reply


  • NEW POST… I have just pulled together a short research piece on the Southwell AW track, USA breds + a look at a few other sires.

    You can flick through that HERE…. http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/12/13/southwell-all-weather-usa-breds/

    Josh 13/12/16 10:16 AM Reply


  • hi josh, as a paying member i have access to TTP picks, but as are so many usually daily, not been backing them, however if the selections being compared to top 3 horserace base ratings and geegeez gold speed figures are going to a permanent thing, will start backing them, presumably if continue to deliver, will you then be
    giving them daily to members? are these horserace base ratings on geegeez site as well/

    thanks

    malc pendrey

    malcolm pendrey 13/12/16 10:42 AM Reply


    • Hi Malc,

      Yep – the number of qualifiers thing is a dilemma – well it is what it is and I may look at trimming the guide down further next year. But, for those who like action, or dipping in and out as a guide, it works to a point – and some have started betting with £1s and £2s and even at that level it has been a nice return to date.

      Anyway, yep that ratings idea was to try and find a way of shortlisting that took my subjective thoughts out of it. I find them useful and plan on carrying on posting them – the consistency so far has been decent and if they continue performing at 50% win or place SR that should give us all another option. They are given daily to Members now and I see no reason why that will change. It only takes another 10/15 mins each afternoon. Then a case of how you follow them, whether those that ‘qualify’ against both sets etc. There have been two winners over the weekend – 6/1 and 33/1 that were not in the ratings though, so always tricky.

      No geegeez and horse race base are separate – Geegeez Gold doesn’t include anything from HRB. I have two accounts with HRB and am a Gold member. I am sure Matt doesn’t mind me using the speed figs 🙂

      Josh

      Josh 13/12/16 10:52 AM Reply


      • I think the only sensible approach to the number of horses that can be thrown up by TTP is to continue to back them all, but to smaller stakes. Unless I’m mistaken, these are all angles that have been well researched and have shown themselves to be profitable over the last year or two. Isn’t there a risk that by adding extra filters which haven’t been tested, winning systems become unprofitable?

        I can definitely see the merit of looking at things like speed ratings to refine things further, but isn’t that something that should be paper tested going forward? If members are going to follow the shortlisted selections rather than the long list, I suppose that’s at their own risk but I’d be wary of doing so before we’ve got a proven track record.

        I can definitely see some merit in trying to refine the list, and I think for your own (Josh) sanity it makes much more sense for that to be based on some kind of ratings system rather than his own opinion. I imagine you’d still be cursing the racing gods if it was your call to leave a 33/1 winner off the shortlist.

        Neil 13/12/16 4:47 PM Reply


        • Hi Neil,

          Yep I agree with all of those points you have made.

          I haven’t done the TTP daily notes etc before and it is a case of presenting the information in a way which allows you to pick your own path. I think the guide is well researched and the live results, 10+ weeks, back that up given the profit levels.

          The ratings idea is just to provide some more valuable information – and taking my opinion out of it. The worst thing I can do is put people off winners- that isn’t the aim and at the end of the day a lot of that is subjective opinion- I have avoided plenty of losers, missed the odd winner, and not had my full ‘TTP Point’ on a couple of winners also- but, if the individual is having fun and making profit that is the main thing. Users will have differing levels of success- some missing the odd winner, some doubling up stakes on others etc.
          The ratings are there to use as you please- in a way they are a live test, and I prefer to do it like that then just keep it to myself. How people use them is up to them- agree about not diving in as they are untested as an extra filter. In time some may just focus on those, or have more on say when ticking certain ratings etc.

          Josh

          Josh 13/12/16 5:28 PM Reply


  • claimer at Southwell looks interesting
    Tatting record fresh is terrible ok has a new trainer who may have got him ready fto
    but taking that on trust
    Rhombus ran a horror race yesterday and a leap of faith to think he will come on that much overnight
    Brigadoon over this type of distance at Southwell has been beaten a bus ride
    so again no reason why he should suddenly win
    Striking Nigella is a form no hoper
    so it leaves you with VERCINGETORIX and COLD FUSION
    both are new to Southwell but Vercingtorix has form on the a/w in france
    and you can forget his last run over fences
    Cold Fusion was good enough to win a Newmarket Handicap so
    against three horses with big question marks over them
    I am backing Cold Fusion and Vercingetorix and laying BRIGADOON at 5/4
    in the betfair two to be placed market
    will also lay him in the three to be placed if he hits 1.4 to lay(1.47 at present)

    peterroywalker 13/12/16 10:56 AM Reply


  • take the medicine got Brigadoon beat but 2nd cost me a packet

    peterwalker 13/12/16 2:07 PM Reply


  • Well played Steve/Josh with “spinner” ………. Excellent work

    TonyJ 13/12/16 2:35 PM Reply


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