TTP Jumps Notes: 12/12/16 (complete)

PLUMPTON

2.30

Drive On Locky (all hncps) WON 9/4 

Flugzueg (micro – runs this season) UP

NOTE: both trainer’s horses going ok without being in red hot form. Drive On is a CD winner having 6th start for this trainer. A return to the form of when winning here two starts ago puts him close to taking this. He does have a fitness question (now 0/6,0p 60+ days off,albeit for a variety of trainers and only once for this one) but the market suggests he is tuned up. Flugzueg is 3/9,5p in C5 handicap hurdles and has the ability in this code and on his last win off 88 this mark is within range, esp with the claim. Has been chasing. Hard to rule out both of those really.

 

3.00

Miss Oscarose (all hncp + hncp C + micro – age) WON 7/1>18/5 

NOTE: Henderson 1/7,3p last 14 days so going ok. This one is 0/16,0p in career but her mark is dropping and this could be the weakest chase she has run in ever- certainly over this distance. It doesn’t look like she stays 24f but she went well to a point there. The fact that Paddy is still on is interesting. Wouldn’t a  shock winner but an awful race where anything can happen I suppose.

 

3.30

Magnus Romeo (all hncps) UP

NOTE: Another fairly short priced Farrelly runner. This one is lightly raced over hurdles, has been running well, and takes a drop in class. Every reason why he should be thereabouts if repeating/building on, that last run.

 

 

FFOS LAS 

2.20

Oscarteea (hncp hurdle)

NOTE: Mulholland 4/41,10p last 14 days. Lightly enough raced and enough bits and pieces of form that would see him run well in this field. Fitness questions and the market may guide but he has gone well after breaks before and the trainer can ready them.

 

2.50

Arden Denis (hncp hurdle) UP

NOTE: Mulholland again- this one has been off 734 days which to my eyes makes 9/4 seem short enough but he is clearly expected to go well here. Unexposed over hurdles and did hack up when last seen. If he is 100% fit here, you can see him running well, based on what we know. Still lightly raced.

 

3.20

Kilcullen Flem (all hncps + hncp c + micro – class) UP

Hollow Blue Sky (all hncps + hncp c + age) UP

NOTE: Kilcullen- Curtis 1/16,3p last 14 days. This one is lightly raced, only 3rd chase start, and at some point there could be more to come pver fences. PU LTO it seems relying on the returning CP to spark him up. A stamina Q based on a couple of runs I think but too early to be conclusive about that, but has it to prove. Mark is dropping. Hollow Blue… NTD ‘in form’ 7/34,14 places last 14 days. He is inconsistent but has the ability to take this- was expected to go better on reappearance given he was sent off 7/2. There is still a niggle about whether he has the stamina for this distance, but the 4 times he has raced over 25f+ have been in much better races, a question there. If he stays, and on his best form,he would get involved.

 

3.50

Apollo Creed (NHF) UP

The Last Day (NHF) UP

NOTE: Williams 2/22,6p last 14 days. Jockey bookings, given the ownership, suggest Apollo Creed may be more fancied but who knows. Williams has won this race for the last two years and he does have big priced bumper winners. Not much more to add.

 

***

My View: Not much to add to those notes above. There are reasons (unexposed profile/bits and pieces of old form/hncp marks/changes from last run etc) why you wouldn’t be confident about leaving any of those above. Some returning after long breaks may seem short enough to my eyes but clearly expected to go well. Good luck with however you play them.

 

 

RATINGS POINTERS

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3 Rated

2.30 P – Drive On Locky WON 9/4 

3.30 P – Magnus Romeo UP

2.20 F – Oscarteea 

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

2.30 P – Flugzeug UP

Top 3 Rated

3.00 P – Miss Oscarose WON 7/1

3.20 F – Kilcullen Flem UP

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