FREE DAILY POST: 11/12/16 (complete/tips)

Well that was a more enjoyable Saturday than has been the norm since, well, I don’t know when… April?? I would take +6 points every Saturday on the ‘tipping’ front for sure. I, and anyone else who kept the faith (brave folk you are) have Paddy Brennan to thank for No Duffer’s win, albeit I don’t know how many times I, and Gerry no doubt with his ‘Paddy Watch’, have said that this season.

I was never destined to find the winner of the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup – a 17 year stats buster, just leaving the age stat in tact! Great win from Frodon given his age (jumped so well) and a brilliant ride from STD who I always feel never gets the respect he deserves. He can ride. But, the two selections ran crackers and I can’t ask for any more. Jumping the last and climbing the hill they both had a chance, edge of the seat stuff as I hoped Frodon would collapse into a hole- he didn’t. Venetia will win a big pot with Aso- I wonder if he will stay 3m?  No idea. He can hit the odd fence and in truth while young Charlie is superb (and is entitled to still be learning) I wouldn’t mind seeing Coleman or Treadwell on him at some point. The front 5 or so came away from the rest and I suspect that may work out well.

What else happened..oh yes the ‘systems’ – the free blog systems won any followers +11 points – a couple for the ‘test’ portfolio- much needed.

33/1 winner anyone…

And the TTP Members post… well they found No Duffer and.. Eastlake at 33/1… lifting the spirits for any systematic backers. I didn’t have my usual TTP 1 point on him (£10) much to my annoyance. I wanted to see some signs of market life (none) but when No Duffer went in I threw a ‘what the hell’ £5 at him. It turns out he has an irregular heart-beat problem I believe – which may explain his inconsistency. I don’t think connections had a clue what to expect today. Headgear was off also though, I missed that little change.

Still, a good day all round for both free content and Members content.

I have also started using the HorseRaceBase ratings and Geegeez Speed figures to list TTP stats picks that may be of more interest/to help with any shortlisting. (those top rated/top 3 rated against those ratings. So far so good)

Anyway, as always, if you like trainer stats/systems or want a list of horses to use as a guide to your days punting, you should take a 7 Day Free Trial HERE>>> (ever the salesman, sorry…but I do have to eat sometimes 🙂 )

(the stat that found him was included in the free report also, that you would have got when joining my email list)

My Members Club may be for you. It may not. Go on, have a go… HERE>>>

(I mean 4 people unsubscribed today, even with 10/1 and 33/1 winning stats qualifiers, so you can’t please everyone, but, that’s why there is a free trial period…) 

(oh and a quick mention for The New One... I tell you the type of National Hunt ‘fan’ who annoys me- it’s the type who ‘as soon as’ he passed the winning post thought/said aloud ‘he won’t win a Champion Hurdle’ – oh bore off, and that is being polite. If you can’t enjoy an ageing star who is a very good horse in his own right, winning any graded race at Cheltenham, in that moment, I think you are in the wrong sport. Surely the horse, the story, that race there and then, comes first. Well, that is probably just me but the ‘Festival is everything’ mindset is one that doesn’t half annoy me. I find it bloody irritating. Sorry if that is you. We will just politely agree to disagree)

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Sunday…

 

TIPS

1.35 Carlisle

SAROQUE – 1 point win – 13/2 (general) UP (very poor, clearly something up as just not running his race)

FILL THE POWER – 1/2 point win (14/1 general) UP (his run no shock, sadly Carlisle didn’t inspire him today)

 

Saroque… well I can’t ignore this VW chaser at what looks a decent enough price. He got really worked up the last day when I was at Haydock and it was clear he wouldn’t be winning. He was agitated, sweaty, didn’t look himself (I don’t think that is normal behaviour) In the end he ran ok, but below his best. I think he stays this trip albeit a niggle- well he has led a Welsh National field to about 5/4 out and has stayed 3m thoroughly before. He is back down to his last winning mark. RH and undulations are fine. I also think he might try and track what could be a relentless gallop here and could just plod on over the last couple when they all fall into a hole. (or the fav swoops past him at that point!) Anyway, I want to have him onside here. A few niggles but he is a solid handicap chaser who has a touch more grinding class than some of these at his best for me,albeit arguably this is his level. The ground is soft, good to soft in places, so it should be ok, hopefully not too quick. Hopefully he can put that poor run behind him the last day.

Fill The Power… well he is more of a punt but Smith’s have been going ok, he makes a quick return which intrigued me, Cook is on, it’s his 3rd run after a long break and he returns to arguably his favourite track, 1/4,3p over CD. I hope he doesn’t get into a pace battle and can just sit. He ran OK the last day, up there for a time before others pulled away. That may have been too sharp and it was a better race than this for me. He can run in snatches but there might be something about this hill that inspires him. He may be tailed off/being ridden after 4 fences. Something in my gut just says he is worth half a point here. If he is there 2 from home, he will be there come the line I think.

Pace… on paper there is so much and we shall see how fast they really go. Scotswell/Basford/Carli and the two selections can all get on with it. Hopefully those two let the other three ‘kill’ each other at the front end.

The most likely winners are the fav and BallyBen and maybe I am foolish for taking them on- but with that attitude I wouldn’t have backed No Duffer on Sat. 7/4 is short for West of The Edge given he does have to prove his class..0/4,0p C3, and that was a weak race he hacked up in the last day. He will also come from further back here which depending on how testing it is will be hard work. Now he could just have improved beyond recognition and hack up again but at 7/4 I am happy to take him on and find out. BallyBen- well I don’t know what he beat here when he won in the sense that all those that chased him home (inc Harry The Viking, Basford Ben, Morney Wing) needed the run I think and all kind of stopped/plugged on. He was fit and that is what won it I think. He has been consistent though and a repeat of his last two will put him there. But he does need to improve again from this mark, and as such that makes 3s ok, without being overly generous.

So, those two semi pokes will do. The prices allow a nibble. If Saroque can run like he did in the Welsh National until 5 from home or so that should put him well within the range of taking this. It could be that he isn’t himself at the moment.

Should be a cracker to watch. GL with whatever you fancy. (i may not have mentioned the winner, I think I have, but it is a Saturday evening and I can’t be bothered to write any more- rest assured I have looked at them all!)

***

 

***

JUMPS ANGLES

(remember you can find the research for all of these in various posts in the Free Reports & Systems Tab..I do need to update the master post and will do so next week)

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio – LIVE TEST

Chase

1.35 Carl – Danimix UP

 

December Trainers

Venetia W – 1.35 Carl – Saroque UP

 

Harry Fry Mares (10/1< guide)

1.50 South – Goodnightsweetheart

 

V Williams Chase November (tracking into Dec)

2.40 Carl- Fionn Mac Cul

 

***

post complete..

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

22 Comments

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  • I had Eastlake on Betdaq, they robbed me by saying i had taken 28/1 ,when i know i had taken 33/1. Not betting with them anymore..

    Stewart 10/12/16 5:34 PM Reply


  • Paddy Watch

    Another 8 1/2 pts in pot today after 6pts yesterday
    Just the one for tomorrow

    2.25 Southwell May Hay 1pt win 6/1 BV

    Running Total +33.5

    gearoid180468 10/12/16 7:10 PM Reply


    • Gerry..what are your rules for Paddy Watch again, or, at which point do you stop? Or we just keep going, which is working well so far!

      Josh 10/12/16 7:19 PM Reply


  • The one thing you rarely have to say when Paddy is riding”he could have made use of the horse,may not be the most stylish but he always puts the horse in with a chance at the business end

    gearoid180468 10/12/16 7:22 PM Reply


    • i agree with gerry on that. gives the horse a chance of winning which other top jockeys dnt do. barry gerathy chief culprit. he seeems to decide when he wants to ride…

      danny3433 10/12/16 7:34 PM Reply


      • Some may say he doesn’t make that decision himself haha 🙂

        Josh 10/12/16 7:39 PM Reply


  • Good Evening Josh

    Paddy Brennan Riding for following trainers

    Fergal O Brien
    Colin Tizzard
    Tom George-I do check this one for tracks where they have combined well in past
    Karen McKlintock
    Stuart Coulthard
    I think my initial thinking was at least 17% strike rate and an overall profit ,with at least 3 winners in last 5 seasons
    Trainer had a winner in last 14 days or no runners
    Anthony Carson Qualifies as 0-0

    Stakes
    5/1-10/1 1pt Win
    11/1+ 1/2pt e/w
    11/4-9/2 1/2pt win
    Under 11/4 no bet
    I suppose when these trainers go cold it will come to s stop automatically
    I havent really thought about a stop loss situation yet,but maybe after a losing run of 10 might be best to reduce stakes
    Hope it makes sense

    gearoid180468 10/12/16 7:42 PM Reply


    • Gerry, do you have a record of all bets since you started, including prices taken and/or SPs? I’d be grateful for a look if so.
      eg no. of bets/wins and individual prices.
      Thanks, Chris.

      chrisrees 10/12/16 8:38 PM Reply


  • I was hoping to be able to back West of the Edge , maybe more in hope that the price was going to be acceptable …… as it did me a favour the last day . Perhaps i will revisit the race and take a closer look at VW,s ..
    The weather could be an issue with rain all over the place .. Newton Thistle @ 6/1 (S 3.30) would be my choice , 3m on soft was Newtons best run for me ….. however i fear there will be a couple of non runners and i could end up lumbered with a price of 3/1 if that happens .

    Have a pleasant Evening and Good Luck tomorrow

    Tonyj 10/12/16 7:53 PM Reply


  • Chris
    Heres the rundown 22 bets 8 wins

    13/11 Poetic Rhythm 1/2 pt e/w 11/1 won 11/2 +5.25 R4
    14/11 Im Still Waiting 1/2pt win 9/2 6th 13/2 +4.75
    15/11 Diamond Fort 1pt win 5/1 8th 15/2 +3.75
    16/11 Troubled Soul 1pt win 6/1 2nd 6/1 +2.75
    16/11 Pemba 1pt win 7/1 2nd +1.75
    17/11 Wheres Cherry 1pt win 5/1 3rd 12/1 +.75
    17/11 Infinite Sun 1pt win 9/1 w14/1 +14.75
    18/11 Global Stage 1pt win 13/2 2nd 5/1 +13.75
    19/11 Chase The Spud 1pt win 8/1 2nd 11/2 +12.75
    21/11 Owen Na View 1/2pt win 10/3 2nd 6/1 +12.25 was no bet officially
    24/11 Lord of The Island 1/2pt win 9/2 w 7/1 +15.75
    24/11 Druids Folly 1/2pt win 9/2 w15/8 +18
    25/11/15 Florida Calling 1pt win 15/2 pu 6/1 +17
    26/11 Mystifiable 1pt win 8/1 pu +16
    26/11 Theatre Guide 1/2pt win 18/1 8th 14/1 +15
    28/11 Three of a kind 4th +14 didnt post that day
    30/11 Iora Glass 1pt win 6/1 45/1 +13
    4/12 Oscar Rose 1pt win 5/1 w 4/1 +17
    8/12 Annie Alainn 1/2 pt win 4/1 w3/1 +19
    9/12 Troubled Soul 1pt win 13/2 pu 6/1 +18
    9/12 Theatre Guide 1pt win 8/1 w 15/2 +26
    9/12 Poetic Rhythm 1/2pt e/w 12/1 5 10/1 +25
    10/12 Always On The Run 1/2 pt w9/2 2nd +24.5
    10/12 No Duffer 1pt win 9/1 w 9/1 +33 .5

    gearoid180468 10/12/16 10:21 PM Reply


  • All bets were advised at best prices with Bet365 or BV,some might have got better prices with other bookmakers,where Bet365 matched BV Bet365 was advised because of their sp bonus,the price was readily available at time of posting

    gearoid180468 10/12/16 10:34 PM Reply


    • Thanks for your posts again Gearoid; it’s an impressive set of results and merits backing them all EW @ B365 SP plus perhaps?

      chrisrees 11/12/16 6:35 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Great point about ‘Festival is everything ‘ was at Cheltenham yesterday(always looking for Festival pointers)
    but really enjoyed seeing the The New One win
    Sometimes it’s about just enjoying the sport.

    Graham Ashford 11/12/16 9:27 AM Reply


  • He isn’t much of a price but West of the Edge should come on for the run and ground and trip should be fine.

    Nick Mazur 11/12/16 10:30 AM Reply


    • Well done Nick, bet you were cheering him home, great finish. He hit 3/1 10 mins before off, thought that was ok and hope you may have had a bit more on at that point! a bit better than the 7/4 early.

      Josh 11/12/16 1:47 PM Reply


      • Had £60 at 5/2 plus the satisfaction of being a winning part owner at the course (to go along with the free champagne)

        Nick Mazur 11/12/16 2:10 PM Reply


        • Super. What a day. Enjoy every moment and the champagne!

          Josh 11/12/16 2:12 PM Reply


  • Chris,the paddy watch is just for fun really,there is no analysis whatsoever,could bomb back to Zero,its just to keep an interest on the game,wouldn’t be putting much on myself,just small stakes

    gearoid180468 11/12/16 11:00 AM Reply


  • Well “West of the edge ” obliged …..did drift to 7/2ish on the exchange … Hope you backed it also Nick ?

    Tonyj 11/12/16 2:01 PM Reply


    • Yep well done. Clearly I shouldn’t have taken those top two on! Hope you had a good go when drifted as 3s was fair enough. Great ride and that’s looks solid enough form. Race was well run.

      Josh 11/12/16 2:06 PM Reply


  • Congrats on that the Nick …. “marathon trips” on the agenda now then mate ?

    Tonyj 11/12/16 2:17 PM Reply


    • Believe so. Should stay at least an extra four furlongs. Hopefully he will only go up the minimum for that but it was 14 lengths back to 3rd who was much closer in the Southern National.

      Nick Mazur 11/12/16 4:15 PM Reply


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