TTP Jumps Notes: 09/12/16 (complete)

CHELTENHAM NOTES:

I have pulled together some notes for The International Meeting which you can access below. They are fairly brief and to the point but there are a few nice ‘eye catching’ stats in there for you to use/ignore as you please.

These notes would usually be for Members Only but I am going to put them on the free blog post this time also.

CLICK HERE FOR NOTES>>>

 

 

DONCASTER

1.40

Big Chief Benny (all hncps) 2nd 

3.25

Vic’s Last Stand (micro – class) UP

 

My View: I will just write some thoughts under each meeting given the numbers again… The King horse looks solid and is priced up accordingly, unexposed,trainer in form, could come on for last run (needs to). Vic’s Last Stand looks held by the handicapper to my eyes and has been on the go a while now. There are plenty of in form rivals here. Takes a massive step up in trip – interesting – no idea whether it will suit or not, it does need to bring out improvement. Questions to answer but is around 10s.

 

 

BANGOR

1.15

Willoughby Hedge (all hncps + hncp chase) UP 6/1>9/1

Hedley Lamarr (hncp chase + micro distance) UP 25/1 (ran well to a point,got chases in him)

Waldorf Salad (micro – 0 runs 90 days) UP 6/1

Subtle Grey (micro – going) UP 12/1

 

NOTE: I am going to have a good look at this race hopefully,and probably tip in it. I don’t like backing 4 in one race so some digging to do. Going is soft and could be testing here. Walforf Salad is unexposed and will relish conditions, and could also try and lead all the way. He will be fit,no worries on that front I don’t think given the trainer. Subtle Grey is unexposed enough also- market may guide as to fitness- it looked like he needed the run here last season when returning. Willoughby Hedge another unexposed one and is 4/1- seems to have an obvious chance. I may think that is short enough though both given the break- and all his form is on going with ‘good’ in the description- unproven on soft or worse – may relish it, but it’s a ‘don’t’ no. Kind can ready them if desired. Jonjo’s is unexposed,2nd chase run, but didn’t do much LTO. He takes a step up in trip here. Plenty of these,including the other three,have much better chase form to date. Market may guide but he looks the weakest/most questions, from these four for sure. The other three are in the Top 4 of the HorseRaceBase ratings.

 

1.50

Desert Cry (micro – going) WON 8/1 

 

3.00

Raise A Spark (micro – going) WON 7/2>2/1 

 

NOTE: For both…  Desert Cry looks interesting. McCain’s a bit hit and miss at the moment but soft is no problem. 0/14 over hurdles but was highly tried and he comes here in form at least. Most form over 16f, but that last run suggests this trip could be within range. He is 10 and open to anything open to improvement but were he to repeat that last run (may even come on for it as it was after a short break) he would be in the mix I think. Raise A Spark- only his 4th handicap hurdle and again he ran well the last day after a break. He bumped into one there who has since come out and won since. takes a drop in trip- not sure if that will help but unproven. Both look interesting enough, for the ‘hit and miss’ ‘micro’ angles at the moment.

 

CHELTENHAM

12.55

Troubled Soul (all hncps + hncp c) UP

 

1.30

Sausalito Sunrise (all hncps + TJC) UP

Perfect Candidate (all hncps + hncp c) 2nd 18/1 (nose)

Southfield Theatre (micro – horse runs this season) UP

 

NOTE: on first two races… Troubled Soul is unexposed,seems to be slowly improving over fences,trainer is in red hot form still – interesting enough albeit this looks a strong race,with a few in form in this. Hard to discount though.

1.30 – Sausalito and Southfield T seem to have good chances and are priced up accordingly – proper Good ground is a slight unknown for the former- lost a shoe the last day which seems to be reason for how quickly he stopped but track and trip are fine and can’t say this mark is impossible as yet. Southfield can hit one, and his jumping would be a concern esp as they may rattle around here. He is 4/7 places at the track though,all runs,and clearly likes Cheltenham. Having just looked at the pace map , there are no out and out front runners- maybe STD will try and make all on ST. Perfect Candidate looks the weakest of the three- poor LTO albeit he may have needed it and a prep for this, but was still a poor run. He is well held by SS on that race in Nov 2015 here and they are both 13lb higher than that run. His career high mark a question, as is his ability for G3 also I think. Some questions.

 

2.05

Bertie Boru (all hncps) UP 12/1

 

2.40

For Good Measure (all hncps + hncp h) 2nd 13/2

Rolling Maul (hncp hurdle) UP 25/1

Call To Order (micro – class) WON 6/1

The Eagle Has Landed (micro – runs this season) UP

 

NOTE: Bertie Boru looks up against it..big stamina question and I can’t believe his jumping will hold up around here. He is also up against plenty of smart horses, much higher rated, and Bolger has two- the X Country expert. I would be surprised if he took this, or if he even completed. You never now, it may be what he has been wanting all along maybe!

2.40-  Rolling Maul looks the weak link from those three I think- exposed and on a career high mark,been chasing the last twice. He is a class winner at the track though so can’t fully discount but this looks a deep enough handicap and he doesn’t look to have anything in hand. The other three are interesting – market may guide as to The Eagle Has Landed and whether he needs the run and a chance the handicapper may now have him. The other two look the most interesting to me, and they can’t be discounted here.

 

3.15

Allee Bleue (all hncps + hncp h + micro – TJC/90 Days) UP

Bobble Emerald (all hncps) 3rd 16/1>14/1

 

NOTE: A fitness question over the Hobbs runner, but is still unexposed enough I think- also a question over the going having been kept to soft- this could be too lively,albeit an unknown. Bobble Emerald – well is in cracking form and likes to front run- clearly needs to improve into this class but they seem to have found her trip, and she is unexposed over 16f. May not be good enough but out of all the bigger priced qualifiers above, I think he looks the most interesting – a nice EW price. Fit and in form at least.

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PAUL NICHOLL’s Betfair Blog has just gone up – he doesn’t sound confident on any of his handicappers mentioned above! You can read those views HERE>>>

 

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My View: Another busy day in store possibly.

There are 5 that I wouldn’t be overly confident of winning for me, and that could be ‘clunkers’ if I leave them… Headley Lamarr/Perfect Candidate/Bertie Boru/Rolling Maul/The Eagle Has Landed… they have big questions for me and a combination of poor form, better horses in the races maybe,fitness or the handicapper looking to be in control. You may disagree with that assessment and I have got a few wrong in the past, albeit not in the last couple of weeks touch wood. They would be surprise winners for me but there are some nice prices amongst that lot.

The rest you could give some sort of chance too/make a stronger case for- Vic’s Last Stand is probably up against it also-but steps up in trip and you never know. Albeit hard to be confident.

I am always thinking about ways to help guide with any shortlisting, esp if you are not a ‘systematic’ backer.

I may have a look at my HorseRaceBase ratings and experiment with highlighting any that are in the top3/4 ratings,and likewise at the bottom of the ratings. It could be interesting to see how that pans out over time and may be a good way to shortlist, esp on very busy days like this. It may not. We can test that live and see. I can also use my Geegeez Speed ratings also.

I will pull together something along those lines in the morning.

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RATINGS

For now I will have a look at those that are Top Rated in HorseRaceBase and Geegeez Speed figure, plus those that are in the Top 3 of both also. It will be interesting to see if their results, over time, outperform the qualifiers as a whole, esp in terms of win % SR etc, profit etc.

 

TOP RATED

Horseracebase

1.15 Bang – Waldorf Salad – UP

Geegeez Speed

3.25 Donny – Vic’s Last Stand – UP

1.50 Bang – Desert Cry – WON 8/1

2.40 Chelts – Rolling Maul- UP 25/1

 

TOP 3 RATED (those above +…)

Horseracebase

1.15 Bang – Willoughby Hedge – UP

1.50 Bang – Desert Cry WON 8/1

3.00 Bang – Raise A Spark- WON 7/2

1.30 Chelts – Sausalito Sunrise – UP

2.40 Chelts – For Good Measure 2nd 13/2

3.15 Chelts – Bobble Emerald – 3rd 16/1

 

Geegeez Speed

1.30 Chelt- Sausalito Sunrise- UP

2.05 Chelt – Bertie Boru – UP

2.40 Chelt – For Good Measure 2nd 13/2

3.15 Chelt – Allee Bleue UP / Bobble Emerald 3rd 16/1

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