FREE DAILY POST: 09/12/16 (COMPLETE)

 

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14 Day FREE ACCESS…

Earlier I sent out an email about Inform racing and how you can get 14 days free access to these speed ratings. + info  about Ian’s In-running trading tool also.

You can read that email HERE>>> if you missed it. The speed ratings deal I ‘negotiated’ is probably the best freebie I have sent out, worth a look.

In response to that email two of you messaged me back with thoughts on this service… One of you said you had tried the speed ratings before and while no problems with the service, couldn’t get on with them that well and are no longer a member. Fair enough.

Another, George, got in touch and said…

 

Hi Josh,

Just seen your e mail re Inform speed ratings.
I have only recently joined your monthly club, but have been a subscriber to Ian’s Inform Speed ratings for many years, and to be honest could not function without them. If for any reason Ian has a day off ( not very often), then I am not at all confident in placing a bet at all!
Highly recommended.
Regards George
 
So, some of you will enjoy them, some of you won’t! Only one way to find out…
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CHELTENHAM FREEBIE….
 
I have just posted a link up for Members with some stats for The International Meeting which starts tomorrow.
 
These ‘big meeting notes’ form part of the Members Package and are there for Members to use as they please- with the hope that they may help you find the odd winner/avoid some losers.
 
On this occasion I have decided you good blog readers can have them for free, Member or not. Sometimes notes like this point to a few winners, sometimes they don’t. We shall see how they get on…
(there is a sort of ‘micro angle’ in there for handicaps- or two stats combined, that are 9/29,12p…+80 SP over the last three meetings. I will track these on the blog see how they do this year…)
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TIPS

1.30 Cheltenham

A Good Skin – 1.5 points win – 7/1 (general) UP

Cogry – 0.5 pt win – 8/1 (general) Fell (that’s him done for me now)

Urgh. Nothing to shout about. A Good Skin travelled well but didn’t pick up, poor effort. Poor day on the tipping front. One step forward, 5 backwards.

 

A Good Skin– i thought 7s looked fair enough to me (he could be joint 5/1 fav imo) given his form at the course, proven on good (and it is watered so could be fast enough) and this is more his trip. He has run well both times this season and looks ready to strike here. I fancied him the last day where he travelled really well as they were turning for home before seemingly being outpaced. But, he rallied and stayed on again, suggesting he is in form – rather than fading tamely. He has been nothing but consistent over fences really and Tom George is in fine form again. I thought from this mark, where there could be more to come, and from that end of the weights, he could do some damage here. Baring an accident I will be disappointed if I am not watching with some excitement jumping the last 2. He should be there abouts.

Cogry  – well, the thought of him winning without anything on probably overrides my better judgement. He could be my new Harry The Viking (he will win a decent staying chase one day). Arguably he hasn’t had a proper race yet this season – he fell first here on reappearance but he jumped well, just over jumped it and landed steep. Back here two starts ago he got into the best rhythm he had for a while but was brought down with a circuit to go. He clearly does have jumping problems but went again early at Aintree. It is all about a clear round really- 8s, and 1/2 a point is probably just on the limit to give him one last chance. I have a niggle about the pace they may go on this ground , which could lead to further errors but they may try and make all here and keep him out of trouble. NTD doesn’t have a great record in the race- 0/17,1p, but on the flip side bottom weights (or joint bottom) have won 4 of the last 8, and there are those handicap stats for last three meetings above in that report, which indicate a great record for those returning within 10 days of last start- they could just be a fluke mind. But, he was worth a chance. Bits and pieces of form give him every chance and the Ayr run suggests good ground is fine, while softer may be ideal.

Of the rest – well who do I fear- Sausalito Sunrise is solid and won’t be far away. He lost a shoe the last day which excuses that rapid stopping I think,albeit he may have needed it also. He just has a big weight from a high mark – and I would like to think something in here could have more in hand. It is possibly he runs up to that mark and it is good enough. I think he could be better on softer also. A couple of niggles around 6/1, but he is solid. Bally Longford is the interesting one- suppose you are taking a 12/1 punt on this trip unlocking more and Tizzard did that here the last day with a similar type. But 16f to 26f is a massive hike, and I would want to see some evidence that he will stay – just too big an unknown for me, albeit if he does stay he is unexposed enough and looks interesting. Southfield Theatre does look high enough in the weights and that Wincanton race turned into a poor affair for me- he can make mistakes and again could bump into something with more in hand. Not an overly generous price for me. I am sure Out Sam wants softer here, or at least has a surface like this to prove- and I would want to see a bit more hardy big field form for a race like this, in the context of his price. Perfect Candidate wouldn’t be a nice winner to watch, he is a TTP selection along with a couple more in here (SS + Southfield) – When counting the jockey’s 3lb claim when he last won, he is now 8lb higher than beating Forgotten Gold here- and this is a much deeper race than that one. I wondered whether he had the class for this/enough in hand. I decided he doesn’t and hope he doesn’t prove me wrong. The rest have enough questions for me.

**

 

1.15 Bangor 

Waldorf Salad – 1 point win – 5/1 (general) 9/2 (general) UP 6/1

Kayf Moss – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) UP 7/1

Market spoke there for the winner, 10s into 4s, no unexposed winner ever a shock, yard in form, I wondered whether up to this task,but ‘they knew’ it seems. Walkforf was weak in the market suggesting he may not have been fit,folded tamely. Kay Moss never travelled and jumped out to the right alarmingly which I hadn’t noticed on his two runs at Chepstow/Ffos Las- not sure if something amiss, he was well backed,albeit nothing was beating that winner. Clunker. 

Waldorf Salad – he just looks solid and I thought 5s was fair enough here. He ticks plenty of Venetia angles, (a couple below,+ a TTP micro angle) is still unexposed enough, will be fit I think,relishes the mud and likes to front run. He could make all here, or at least be in the right spot. His best form/only form is all in the December/Jan period so a time of year he does well. That Ascot run was decent where he was pestered for plenty of the journey but that was a decent race. He is also top rated on HRB and I couldn’t really find a fault with him in truth. The solid option for me, and sometimes that is good enough.

Kayf Moss- well he is the punt at 12s but I thought plenty to like about his chance here. He is unexposed over fences, 0/5,2p, and if he could ever repeat some of his decent hurdles form over the larger obstacles, he would have a great chance. Those runs at Ffos Las and Chepstow were decent enough and his jumping looked fine there. He ran well on his reappearance LTO in a strong C2 handicap hurdle, where he was up there until tiring 3 from home or so. He should come on for it and the trainer is 3/11 in the last 30 days. He will race prominently also, and has no problem with the mud. At the prices when I looked, he was the bigger one that stood out.

There are 3/4 dangers/clangers/oh damn I picked the wrong one horses… Gonalston Cloud is interesting – he was fat to my eye the last day when I was there but even so, that was a really poor run. He was being ridden as they headed out for the final circuit and dropped away tamely. Conditions shouldn’t have been a problem. It was just a tad too poor for me, for an 8/1 shot. I would like to see more. I wouldn’t be shocked if he bounced back but making too many excuses for poor runs with chasers hasn’t been a great tactic of mine in the past. Subtle Grey is interesting- but there is a fitness question and McCain is hit and miss with chasers after long breaks- he can ready them but it is a question. I also don’t know the strength of his form and this is a deep race, considering the small field races he had won in. I wouldn’t be surprised if he got involved but he can be a tricky character also. Just about happy to leave, he may prove me wrong. Another unexposed one. Audacious Plan is interesting – I can see why at 14s Nick would be interested below in the comments- he was generally 7s/8s this morning and I have missed that price- which is now probably fair enough. There are bits and pieces of chase form where you can make a case and there could be excuses for recent poor efforts. He did show more in a C4 hurdle LTO and if building on that back over fences he could go well. But, his recent chase form has been shocking and at 7s a bit of a chance would need to be taken. 14s probably allowed that stab. He is a danger if running to his best, such as that run at Punchestown. Willoughby Hedge I thought was short enough around 5/1 given the break, the relative inexperience, and more so the question as to soft ground. It is an unknown really. He may be fine on it but that that price, given that question is combined with a fitness questions, I was happy for him to prove me wrong. Kaki looked only fairly priced given I am unsure as to the level of form, the stable is a bit cold (0/12,0p 30 days) and he is lightly raced in a way which suggests he has had problems. The selection looks a much better 5s shot to my eye. But, another unexposed one. The rest have a few too many questions,albeit the Richards horse is also unexposed but again this is the deepest race he has encountered.

Pace- well both of these two will be up there, with any luck 1st and 2nd all the way round, battling it out over the last! There should be no excuse on that front.

That will be all.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– LIVE TEST (emphasis on test)

Hurdle

2.40 Chelts- The Eagle Has Landed (clear top weights – Nicholls not exactly confident in his Betafair column)

Chase

12.55 Chelt- Treaty Girl UP / Yes I Did UP

1.15 Bangor – Waldorf Salad (missed that first time) UP

 

December Trainers (again new,never been tested live)

1.30 Chelts – Sausalito Sunrise UP

2.05 Chelts – Bertie Boru

2.40 Chelt – For Good Measure 2nd 13/2

 

Tom George Handicap Chase

12.55 Chelt – Song Sea UP

 

V Williams Chasers November (tracking into Dec as yard looked to be 3/4 weeks behind this year)

1.15 Bang – Waldorf Salad- UP

 

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That will do for today. Good luck with any bets.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

18 Comments

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  • Great days racing tomorrow….Can Cogry finally get round? 🙂

    jamesm 08/12/16 6:45 PM Reply


    • Haha – you and I both know he is the one that jumped out immediately to my ‘love a cliff horse’ eyes.
      I need to look properly- I worry about the ground mainly due to the pace they will go on it- it’s that pace which could be the undoing at his fences. But, 2 starts ago in soft he was definitely going to be in the mix, if completing – the best he has jumped. Can ignore aintree- those fences too big for him (seem to have put loads more spruce on this year- they looked massive,but with changed core horses that cant jump have a softer fall/unseat) And, looking at those notes above, those returning within 10 days have a great record, as does NTD at this meeting. Hmmm. Pondering.

      Josh 08/12/16 6:54 PM Reply


      • Bally Longford for me in this race. Question mark on the trip but wiĺl likely improve for move to Tizard, will be comfortable on the pace given he’s competitive over 2m. Find it fascinating that they ran him over 2m here at the last meeting and now step up in trip. Another Vincente de Noyer? At 12s I’ll happily take a chance that he stays.

        JV 08/12/16 7:45 PM Reply


        • Yep, good luck JV, that price probably just about ok to take a stab – that is just too big a step up for me to want to have a go but can see why you would. He is the one really interesting one in the race I think, given that distance move. I get the impression Tizzard doesn’t know whether these Potts horses stay – they were not confident with that winner you touch on- so maybe a case of rolling the dice with a few to find out. This race will no doubt help decide any spring handicap targets. GL

          Josh 09/12/16 10:30 AM Reply


  • Paddy Watch

    Some good racing tomorrow after a week of dross

    Paddy has 3 tomorrow

    Poetic Rhythm gave the watch a great start at last Cheltenham meeting,hopefully can reproduce Bumper form over hurdles

    12.55 Chelt Troubled Soul 1pt win 13/2 Bet365
    1.30 Chelt Theatre Guide 1pt win 8/1 Bet 365
    3.45 Chelt Poetic Rhythm 1/2 pt e/w 12/1 BV

    gearoid180468 08/12/16 7:21 PM Reply


  • Paddy Watch

    Running total +19

    gearoid180468 08/12/16 7:22 PM Reply


  • The highly rated A Hare Breath goes on Friday in the 12.10 BOD. If he is as good as his trainer says then 11/4 would be good. At Cheltenham For Good Measure seems good each way value at 13/2 in the 2.40. Also Red Avenger, 6.35 Dun, looks each way value at 8/1.

    Good luck

    martin colwell 08/12/16 10:36 PM Reply


    • I wasnt on but nice tipping Martin

      nickmazur 09/12/16 6:58 PM Reply


  • The cat is out of the bag (although 5s is still fine) but Templeross is running off a very nice weight in the 14:40 at Cheltenham once you taken Tom Humphries 10lbs into account who earlier this week has shown himself to be more than capable (3/5 this season). I also want to have an e/w bet on Desert Cry in the 13:50 at Bangor who is very well handicapped based on his old form and should come on for his reappearance run.

    Both the 2 3m+ chases look tricky. In the 13:30 at Cheltenham quite of few of the main market principles dont have ideal conditions so I have gone for the overpriced Ballynagour. Pipe has won 3 of his last 5 races. This is easier than what he normally contests. In fact his record in handicaps worth less than £50k reads 122. He record on Good ground since the start of 2014 reads 131722. Despite his PU LTO he is still 4th on HRB ratings. I can see him outrunning his odds. In the 13:15 at Bangor I want to be with Audacious Plan who I thought looked like he was coming back to his old form LTO.

    Nick Mazur 08/12/16 11:59 PM Reply


    • Good luck Nick, yep can see the Twister horse running a big race. 25s/33s couldn’t even tempt me in with Ballynagor and maybe I will drown in egg on that one- as well as a form question, I do have stamina questions over this trip at this track, but he is trained by that man and as you point out he has farmed this in recent years, as did his dad (won 6/19 between them I think)
      With you on Desert Cry, looks to have a solid chance, hopefully can win for the TTP stats.
      Audacious Plan- yep at what was 12s/14s I could see why you would take a punt, I missed that price to left. A repeat of his good chase runs would see him thereabouts- just whether he returned to form because he was back over hurdles the last day, or just a general return to form- if the latter and he transfers it back to fences, I could be in trouble. GL (albeit not too much in the two chases 🙂 )

      Josh 09/12/16 10:35 AM Reply


      • Yeah I may have egg on my face from A Good Skin who looks the obvious one here and I was on him LTO (although when a horse is tipped up in three spots they normally add a stone to the weight so maybe I’m subconsciously taking one for the team here). I actually was referring to Pipe’s recent form and didn’t spot his form in the race so I guess that’s another plus.

        Nick Mazur 09/12/16 11:45 AM Reply


        • Yea I thought A Good Skin ticked all the boxes, I got him wrong the last day but this extra 2f+ around this track is ideal, a repeat of any of his good Cheltenham runs should give backers a run for their money. Time will tell.

          Josh 09/12/16 12:00 PM Reply


        • Wallop. Well Desert Cry lifted the mood a tad there! Never in doubt, always tanking.

          Josh 09/12/16 1:59 PM Reply


          • Yeah felt relatively confident about that one from a fair way out. I am not a massive fan of McCain but like Curtis given his horrible last 12 months a number of his should be well handicapped. Audacious Plan ran ok and should winning a 3m class 3 sooner or later. Given the money I am guessing an even better run was expected. Ballynagour ran an odd race but certainly one to stay clear of until he is doing something different and down a chunk in weight. I think A Good Skin ran about as expected (hope you don’t mind me commenting). Do think he will win a class 2 worth less than £20k but not quite up to this level (and that Ascot race is starting to look like a poor one).

            Nick Mazur 09/12/16 2:27 PM Reply


            • You can say what you like Nick, including – that was some more shocking analysis, and another 4 clunkers. Rubbish. Could do better etc. Poor.

              Yep fair point about A Good Skin – I wasn’t willing to cast him in the ‘not good enough for a G3’ race yet, given they were ideal conditions and yet to prove he couldn’t, but may have done so now. Safe to say he just wasn’t up to the level of some of those, travelled well enough but seems to hit a flat spot, but didn’t stay on either so who knows.

              Yep good run from Audacious- they have all bumped into one there. Always a possibility, horse’s 3rd chase start, and he has done that well given the field size and was held up. Connections clearly knew he had a bundle in hand and money spoke volumes, somewhat knew fate before tapes went up. Kayf was backed, halved in price – but never travelled. Not sure of a problem. Waldorf was really poor- in a way that suggests he wasn’t here to run his race. Maybe a muddy target somewhere over xmas/next month.

              Didn’t give Perfect Candidate or Theatre Guide any time of day in that, thought capper may have them both, but proved me wrong there. That tizzard horse has a festival 2m4f/5f handicap in him you would think, or a strongly run 2m one- cruised into that so well. great to see Theatre Guide win again. Gutsy. Perfect Candidate will make all at one of the non-march handicaps in the New Year you would think. Can clearly win from that mark, esp if able to dictate.

              And of course to run salt in wound- Dancing Shadow, one of the ‘Exeter tips’ has just bolted up at Donny. Missed him. 5s as well i think. Useless sometimes.

              Josh 09/12/16 2:37 PM Reply


              • Yeah I was never going to back the winner in either of the 2 chases. Perfect Candidate had a similar sort of feeling of A Good Skin to me although I did consider him at twice the price. Had he been 25/1 last night like he was this morning I might have gone for him. I think there are now too many horses on my tracker to rub salt in the wounds. Raise A Spark was the only one today although don’t mind too much missing them out at those prices.

                nickmazur 09/12/16 4:50 PM Reply


  • Time to Give up with Cogry Josh – not a chaser hopefully the trainer will relent

    Joe 09/12/16 1:42 PM Reply


    • God, you feel like giving up on many things after watching those two races! Awful performance from all 4. Disappointing. Yep, he is done for now. They need to get him to the front in a small field chase around Warwick or Bangor or something. But, I can’t back him again after that – always just makes one error.

      Josh 09/12/16 1:46 PM Reply


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