FREE DAILY POST: 06/12/16 (COMPLETE)

This game of ours is all about the mind and it can be a roller coaster. I was a bit glum Saturday Evening- in part due to another poor day’s ‘tipping’ and also because the TTP stats were having a bad week after a blistering first 8 weeks or so. Then Sunday and Monday came along. The old boy Harry reminded me that I could still read the odd 3m+ chase correctly (some doubts were creeping in albeit there is still the odd skills gap that needs working on)- that was a rather important win mentally, if not financially – many points to claw back still. And over the last two days the TTP stats have won ‘systematic’ followers around +21 points thanks to two winners at 14s and 16s.  I am updating week 10 results this evening but they make for slightly better reading now. And to top that off Steve tipped a decent winner at Lingfield. A decent two days. How quickly the mood can change. 

I will update results from November/early December at some point this week-  tips,and the various jumps angles.

Onto Tuesday…

 

TIPS

Have just looked at the following properly, and definitely worth a go at 4s…

2.10 Fontwell

ROYAL NATIVE – 1.5 points win – 9/2 (general) UR early (how annoying) 

I know many of you fancied him for the abandoned race at Exeter. He was on my shortlist of 4 and I think I was about to throw him in as a 1/2 point tip in the end. Anyway, he also happens to be a TTP qualifier in this also.

His record fresh is good, race conditions look fine also and it is a track the trainer does very well at with his handicap chasers 8/17,12 places.

Around 4/1 is more than fair. Fitness won’t be a questions- he is 1/4,4p at the track all runs, and 1/4,4 p on all runs on Good. The fact he comes out so quickly after that Exter race suggests he was there to perform- they clearly don’t want to waste time getting him out by the looks of things. He is on his last winning mark and this looks like the best time to catch him.

I would normally stick to 1 point – but everything else in here has questions to answer and he looks the one to beat to me. 4s looks generous in that context.

 

The rest…

Well this does look a two horse race I think.. Leg Iron has a few questions to answer I think, 3 days after a PU and he has always looked better on softer and has done all his winning at C4 level. Jonjo’s horse- well he is inconsistent, can clout one, and was very poor the last day. He does have a stamina question over this trip, at a track like this also. Lightly enough raced though. St Dominick is unexposed/inexperienced but may still need the run after departing very early the last day. Best form has been in the slop so a going question also. Leo Luna is unpredictable and just looks out of sorts- he could bolt up, he could be tailed off. 4s is short for a horse like that. Pete The Feat is a solid horse but he is getting on now and has always been best on much softer- albeit I think he handles this- but it could mean something has too much toe for him later on. While he ran OK LTO I would have liked to see a bit more, esp as he has gone better fresh in the past. Longsdon only 2/27 last 14 days also. Royal Native, because of his record fresh and in conditions, his trainer, his liking for good, and his unexposed profile, just looked the solid one and over priced at around 4/1.

Pace- there could be a bit on also- all bar St Dominick like to lead/track the pace- i suspect Noonan will just track the other 4 ahead of him as they take each other on.

***

 

***

JUMPS ANGLES

Tom George Chasers

3.00 Uttox – Behind The Wire UP

 

V Williams Chasers November (tracking into Dec)

3.00 Uttox – Buttercup 3rd 14/1

 

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– LIVE TEST

Hurdle

1.00 Uttox – Que Sera UP 13/2>4/1 (blinkers didn’t work)

Chase

3.10 Font – Midnight Follie – Fell 2/1

 

December Trainers

Hobbs – 1.00 Uttox – Que Sera – UP

Trainer Track Combos

Hobbs/Uttoxeter...

1.00 – Que Sera – UP

 

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

3.40 Fontwell- Kingston Mimosa 3rd 12/1>33/1 … at 12/1 I thought this one looked an interesting EW price in what is a weak race- albeit if my racing profits relied on my ability to attack a moderate C5 handicap hurdle I would be doomed, so maybe take this with a lorry load of salt. But, a few things stood out- firstly he comes up well in the geegeez race card instant expert tab- he is a course winner and has won around this distance. The jockey booking also caught the eye and he has a good record around here and it is the first time he has ridden the horse. You could also make valid excuses for those last two runs – excuses built into his price I think- 2 starts ago was after a break and the last run was on soft, which all evidence suggests he hates. On top of that, they were both in Novice hurdles where he probably doesn’t have the ability and he was sent off at 200/1 the last day. He was also only pulled up approaching the last – which suggests he may benefit from the run also. The fact he returns within 11 days suggests he wasn’t pulled up due to any problems. The final piece is his form – so he has won over 18f here in a weak enough race but a few have placed. But it is that run at Newton Abbot in the summer that caught the eye- he came a decent second there,going down by a neck. The horses that finished behind him in 3rd through to 7th have all come out since and won 10 races between them- Mulholland’s Earls Court was 1l behind him in that race, running of OR90. He is now rated OR 113 having hacked up in a few races since (now looks held) And there are 4 more who have franked the form. So, for this level, that looks solid form to my eye. Anyway, taking all of that lot together I thought 12s looks of some interest and I will have a fun EW nibble. Anything can happen in these races and nothing would surprise, no doubt there are a few who have yet to reveal their true ability, lurking somewhere. Shaddaii– He looks solid in here and has bumped into a couple of unexposed ones the last twice. He is lightly raced and a repeat of either of those last two runs may be enough here- he is a course winner also, and was of some interest. We shall see how they get on.

 

That will be all for today. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

20 Comments

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  • I haven’t fully gone through the race (so best do it now before the price goes) but I am pretty certain I agree with you on Native. That record improves to 4/7, 6 places with Noonan on board.

    Nick Mazur 05/12/16 5:24 PM Reply


    • Have settled on Native River. I also expect Florrie Boy to follow up his win in the 14:00 at Uttoxeter. There is the slight concern about the quick re-appearance only 3 days after his last race but he did it quite comfortably at the weekend in a class 2 and now drops into a class 4. It helps that he has already been successfully turned out quickly in the past even if that was after 8 days. With the jockey (who is 2/4 for the trainer) taking off 10lbs he is actually racing off a lower mark than on Saturday. Uttoxeter is one of NTD’s favourite tracks and he is 8/33, 14 places over here in the past 2 years.

      Moving to Fontwell I could be completely wrong but I thought it was interesting that Harry Cobden goes to Fontwell for just the 2 rides both for Richard Mitchell having never ridden for him before. Considering the trainer must have less than 5 horses in training ints not often he has more than one out at once. They are Thundering Home in the 15:40 and Benbecula in the 12:40. I am probably bonkers considering the trainer hasnt even had a place for 6 months and I swore never to back Thundering Home agian but on a week we saw Harry the Viking win for the first time in an eternity maybe its possible for this pig to actually fly. I’m willing to stake 1.5pts to find out.

      Nick Mazur 05/12/16 7:59 PM Reply


      • The 3:40 is also one of 365’s feature races, so a winner there would mean a risk free bet the following day. The 1:50 Southwell is the other feature race tomorrow, so a winner there would mean a risk free bet in the 3:40

        Neil 05/12/16 11:15 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh i joined for a week which ended today, going to give it at least a month because a week is not a fair time !! i have had a few strokes so may need a little longer than most for things to sink in not put a bet on yet as i want to properly understand the site first, even though its not been the best of weeks and my internet been on and off all week, i like what ieve seen so far cheers

    keith Hartley 05/12/16 9:56 PM Reply


    • Hi Keith,
      thanks for your comment. Yep feel your way in with whatever aspects you choose to take on board, this game is a marathon and sounds like you have a sensible approach. As always, any questions etc you know where to find me! Josh

      Josh 06/12/16 8:58 AM Reply


  • hi, me again with pulled up LTO, out again soon with first time head gear. i.e. LEG IRON, fontwell 2-10.
    got 14 to 1. last time pulled up, won next time out, so thats a positive.

    malcolm pendrey 06/12/16 10:27 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    just having a look around the free systems at the moment, many thanks for that. Just a query re: one of today’s selections… Tom George Chasers (Behind the Wire 3.0 Uttox). The headline rules state do not include novice handicaps, but this race is one?

    Cheers

    Pete

    Pete 06/12/16 10:42 AM Reply


    • Hi Pete,

      Ah yes sorry for the confusion – so, that ‘Tom George Chasers’ is not the same one as is in the Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio- which does EXclude novice handicaps- across the portfolio. (indeed some of them may do well in novice handicaps but I didn’t want to over complicate both the research and the systems)

      The ‘Tom George Chase’ qualifier above that you refer to is another micro angle, the original research of which can be found on a post from the 25th February at the link below (scroll down in that post)

      http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/02/24/members-report-250216-systemsmicro/

      That system looked at Paddy Brennan, but Heskin has now been added – the results across both ‘normal’ handicap chases and novice handicap chases are fine, and both are included.

      A report for some of the other ‘jumps angles’ being followed can be found at the link below, and in the Free Report & Systems tab also…

      http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Other-jumps-micros-2016.17.pdf

      I hope that may be clear, or as clear as mud – which is a specialism of mine 🙂

      Josh

      Josh 06/12/16 11:22 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, Kingston Mimosa 3.40 Fontwell.
    The price now is 25/1……but i’ll be having a small wager ew.
    The key is the ground as you say….. Anything different than good….is hated.
    It is 4th in my ratings so at least warrants an ew bet.
    Dropped in class.. Jockey change
    .Noonan aboard. One of only a few who’s won on the going….
    Course winner. Downside Trainer in the doldrums.

    BOL.

    Tony Mc. 06/12/16 11:50 AM Reply


    • Hi Tony – yep I can’t say I am expectant of a good run now haha- another one in the ‘stats/angles’ section taking a long walk- but I can’t understand it really – but now expect him to be tailed off. There was enough there to have a small EW nibble I though. Time will tell. Sometimes the market is clueless and fingers crossed that is just an over reaction to his last two runs.

      Yep, trainer form with a yard like this always tricky ,esp as don’t have great horses on the whole and there comes a time when the handicapper probably gets hold of most of the string. He is 0/9,0p last 30 days, but 7 of those went off 10/1 +, with a few 33/1, 100/1+ shots in there.

      We shall see! I did have a nibble on Shaadii also.

      Josh 06/12/16 11:58 AM Reply


      • I wouldn’t be concerned about the price given 3 of his last 5 winners have gone off at 25/1+. Have had a nibble e/w.

        Nick Mazur 06/12/16 12:11 PM Reply


        • That’s a very good point. I have thrown a couple of £5s at your cobden horses- good logic so we shall see! GL

          Josh 06/12/16 12:35 PM Reply


          • Sadly not to be (always that fine line between looking like a genius and an idiot)

            Nick Mazur 06/12/16 12:53 PM Reply


            • That is something I specialise in! That’s the way it goes. You were due a shocker or two 🙂

              Josh 06/12/16 1:01 PM Reply


            • Florrie made up for that – couldn’t believe he was 4s when you posted, just assumed would be around 9/4 or something – NTD makes them tough. Missed out on him at Aintree,not there. Well done.

              Josh 06/12/16 2:06 PM Reply


      • Big Drift out to 66/1…… that’ll make up for a few losers…lol.
        Just for a moment though I thought we had a biggie josh. Ah! well.

        tonymc 06/12/16 3:49 PM Reply


        • Ha – yep some nice EW returns there- where you get 66s?? Machine? Fun bet at 33s EW, has paid for a couple of losers today for sure! Entertained the whole way round, when they turned for home I was getting excited as was impossible to tell- given his running style- how much he may have had left – did spend a circuit trying to get to the front, 4 wide- but clearly horse is a tricky bugger- will be interesting in a weak race with no pace pressure- could make all.

          Josh 06/12/16 3:54 PM Reply


          • bet 365….. had to be quick. lol.

            tonymc 06/12/16 3:56 PM Reply


        • took another small bite when at 66s…. so worked out at about 40/1.

          tonymc 06/12/16 3:54 PM Reply


  • Broom Tip / Uttoxeter 3.30 NHF
    20>8 Betfair 11
    One run on G, TS 65 (Ran out of Puff)
    Same Sire & Dame to horse below, one year younger.
    Trainer 16% NHF, Jockey 38% NTF
    20/1 365, Sky, BV
    —————————–
    THE BROTHER 1X PTP, 2X NHF, 1X Hurdle —— Won All
    Invitation Only (IRE) Race record

    5-y-o (22May11 b g)
    Flemensfirth (USA) (16.6f) — Norabelle (FR) (Alamo Bay (USA) )
    Trainer W P Mullins
    Owner Andrea & Graham Wylie
    Breeder Seamus McKeogh

    26Nov16 Gow 16Gd/Y MdH 5K 11-12 1/11 (2¾L Barra 11-5) 1/4F R Walsh — 93 130 28Apr16 Pun 16Y NHF 6K 12-0 1/12 (1¼L Blast Of Koeman 11-4) 9/10F Mr P W Mullins — 27 128 13Mar16 Nav 16Sft/Hy NHF 4K 12-0 1/7 (7L Thirsty Work 11-9) 5/6F Mr P W Mullins — 76 120 17Mar15 Byn 24Y/Sft 4yPTP 11-9 1/8 (7L Whatswrongwithyou 11-9) 6/1 R James — — 92

    Clavis 06/12/16 12:19 PM Reply


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