TTP Jumps Notes: Sat 03/12/16 (COMPLETE+ Bonus Ireland)

Another 4 meetings and quite a few qualifiers against the stats to wade through. (arguably too many for my own comfort if I am being honest and I may need to trim the guide even more next season – getting the balance between ‘action’ versus decent sized lists for starting points etc a fine one)

NOTE: (esp if you are relatively new) 

As always there are a couple of ways you can approach these ‘qualifiers’…

-use the information/stats as a starting point or added information in your own approach to punting, dipping in and out as you please.

-backing them systematically – if you do this please ensure you have an adequate bank – I would say 100/150 points+ and start off with small stakes/paper trade (esp if you may be new). The ‘general race type’ stats were just over +100 points profit before the start of this week, with the ‘Micro Angles’ showing a loss of around 20 points- and having a few questions to answer.

This approach has not been proven in live play as such, as a portfolio, and while the start has been very good, I think we were due a few losers given that start. It is a marathon and not a sprint but given the number of qualifiers below, a bad day can be quite horrendous without a proper bank/if you jump in with too much. Plenty of time to build up stakes over time with any luck/work out an approach that suits you. Some of you have been enjoying yourselves betting £1s and £2s.

These stats/posts are designed to add to your enjoyment of the sport and with any luck win me and you some profit over the course of the season.

Right, onto some horses…

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AINTREE

12.30

Call Me Vic (all hncps) WON 10/1 > 8/1

Cernunnos (all hncps) UP

1.35

Saint Are (all hncps) UP

2.10

Hunters Hoof (micro – class) 2nd

Debece (micro distance) 3rd 

 

My View: I will just add some notes per meeting, given the number of runners. I think Call Me Vic looks up against it, dropped back in trip and up against quite a few younger/more progressive rivals open to improvement. He isn’t in the best of form either. Saint Are- I am against him but a case coud be made – he falls down on the odd stat of mine and is looking a tad long in the tooth now, esp based on that last run. But he likes the fences and the ground is right for him. I find the jockey booking odd- he is 0/28,2 at the track, all rides now. They could be aiming him at the National again. The other three are lightly enough raced in their given codes to give them some sort of chance I think.

***

 

WETHERBY 

1.10

Lough Salt (all hncps) UP 7/4

1.45

St Johns Point (hcncp c) UP

I Just Know (micro – age) 2nd 

2.20

Boite (all hncps + hncp h + micro 0 runs 90 days) WON 11/4 

3.25

Reine Des Miracles (NHF) 2nd 14/1

 

My View: I will be leaving St Johns Point i think on the back of three PUs…and up against a load that have more to come at some point. Just too many questions for him at present. The rest look interesting albeit the first 3 are under 3/1.. they all have profiles that gives them a decent chance here. Lough Salt won for the stats at much better odds LTO but the way he won suggest plenty more to come. Cook is riding at Wetherby when he could have been elsewhere I suspect and it will be interesting what kind of day he has. Reine Des Miracles is interesting due to the booking of Lee- trainer a bit cold still, 0/19,4p last 14 days. But, in an open race he ‘could be anything’

 

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SANDOWN 

12.50

Kentord Heiress (hncp h) UP 40/1

Kentford Myth (hncp h) UP 12/1

 

1.20

Some Kinda Lama (all hncp) 2nd 9/2

Fingal Bay (hncp h) UP

 

2.25

Wishfull Dreaming (hncp h) UP

Zubayr (micro age + micro horse runs this season) UP

 

3.30

Doing Fine (all hncps) 2nd 4/1

Morney Wing (all hncps) 3rd (20/1)

 

My View: The two J W Mullins hurdlers look up against it but you never know, he is 4/160 with handicap hurdlers in the 22/1-40/1 range- I would like to see some support. They don’t look good enough based on recent runs in a race with many interesting types lining up. Slight preference for Kentford Myth who could have a bit more to come. Fingal Bay looks interesting as an EW but he again is now facing a few lightly raced horses open to more progress, including the other stats pick. My instinct says he is up against it but he is a solid classy yardstick. 3.30- Doing Fine has a solid chance. As discussed on free post- I have tipped in this race – Morney Wing is interesting, given the race stats 12/12 top 6 in market, 12/12 12/1 or shorter SP, I would like to see some support for Morney but 20s does feel a bit big,albeit he has questions to answer now. But it is his 3rd run of the season,he could be fully tuned up, he stays just about I think,so not the worst 20s shot you will see. His form has been at lesser tracks though, generally.The remaining three have unexposed profiles and are in ok enough form, dangerous to rule out those types.

 

***

CHEPSTOW

2.15

Atirelarigo (micro age) WON 6/1 

 

2.45

Awaywiththegreys (all hncps) UP

Quebec (all hncps) UP

Lady of Longstone (hncp h, micro class + distance) UP

Braavos (micro age) UP

 

3.20

Berea Boru (all hncps) NR

 

3.50

Ffeebee (NHF) UP 25/1

 

My View: general point- linked to the first qualifier- of some interest maybe that Johnson comes here, given the racing across the country today. Awaywiththegreys looks up against it – in poor form, no headgear on- and also now 0/9,1p on going with ‘good’ in description in handicaps. His three handicap wins in heavy. Does stay well and likes it here though. Quebec looks up against it but is 50s- in poor form and this step up in trip is not sure to suit- albeit an unknown and you never know. Flat bred so questions. Braavos is stepping up in trip -another unknown albeit it needs to work- doing something different. Lady of Longstone has some questions also- all 4 in that race have some questions but some decent prices. The market may guide for the two Bowen horses.

***

Good luck with however you play them. A few look to have a good chance, plenty could still be running this time tomorrow. If in doubt, trust the stats in the long run, with some caution on the ‘Micro Angles’ – which as yet are not performing as hoped,as a portfolio anyway.

 

BONUS

In my rush I have forgotten about Fairyhouse…

Both of Gordon Elliot’s in the 3.05 qualify against the bonus stats in the guide… 2x UP

 

 

 

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