SAT : Big Race Trends/Stats/Pointers (complete)

Below I have had a good looked at the Becher Chase from Aintree.

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Aintree…

The fences on the GN course changed in 2013 and while I am not here to discuss the merit of that change I have taken a look to see if there are any new stand out stats. Some trainers talk of the changes making the races more classier affairs- there are more finishers and fatalities now I believe (and who can moan at that) and as such I think better horses are being entered, by connections who do not fear for their horses as much maybe. The races may also be run at a slightly faster pace albeit I am guessing there and have done no assessment of times- which maybe I should do at some point. But, races over these fences still string the fields out and I am sure being near the front, getting in a rhythm, is the best place to be.

Anyway, looking at ALL races run over the GN fences since the start of 2013 (2x races at Becher meeting, 3x races at GN meeting) it may be of some interest that…

FENCE TYPE…

According to HorseRaceBase three tracks cover their ‘Very Stiff’ fence definition… Cheltenham/Haydock and The Grand National Fences, Aintree.

Since 2013 the top level stats over these fences… 18/481 runners, 67 places (inc wins)

0 runs over ‘very stiff’ fences: 1/75,10p

6yo – 2/12,3p

7 yo – 0/49,3p

0 Runs in Today’s Class of Race (G3 seen as a separate class, not ‘just’ a c1) 0/94, 12p

0 run last 90 days: 1/53, 6p

0-1 places in chase races: 2/98, 9p

Yet to WIN above C4: 0/48,3p

Previous G1 winners: 0/55,5p

Grade 3 the highest class a horse at won at: 0/53,5p

Track LTO – Ascot (0/17,2p) Newbury (0/23,1p) Haydock (0/21,2p) Donny 90/23,2p)

So, maybe a few things to ponder there moving forwards…

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To The Becher…

Becher Chase

I have looked back at the previous 8 years. The fences changed in full from 2013, so the last three renewals- albeit some test fences were used for the 2012 race. What effect they have had or will have moving forwards who knows.

132 bets / 8 wins / 29 win or placed horses

NOTE: of some interest I think 2009 is an anomaly year given their were only 8 runners- that win stands out against a few stats such as weight carried etc…

 

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • Nothing much of note. PU/fell LTO 4/19,7p

Horse Age

  • 5/8 aged 9
    • 5/32,10 places, +31
      • Age 5-6: 0/8,3p
      • Age 7/8: 0/38, 6p
      • Age 10-11: 0/42, 6 p
      • Age 12+ : 3/12,4p

 

Days Since Run

  • 5/8 ran 21-25 days ago… 5/32,9p…+36 SP
    • 1-15 days: 0/25,5p
    • 26-45 days: 0/40,8p
    • 46-60 days: 1/6,2p
    • 181-240 days: 2/11,3p

 

Horse Weight (exc claim)

  • 7/8 carried 11-1 or less on back
    • 11-2+ : 1/37,6p (winner 11-12) (2009 when only 8 runners)

 

Horse Official Rating

  • 7/8 rated OR 130-138
    • 7/56,11 places…+49
      • OR 139+ : 1/58, 10 places (2009 again,year of 8 runners)

Season Runs

  • Not too much albeit 0 runs or 2/3 seems best…
    • 0: 2/20,4p
    • 1: 2/62,11p
    • 2/3: 4/37, 11p
    • 4+ : 0/13,3p

 

Odds

  • 9/9 .. 25/1 or shorter.
    • Over; 0/23,2p

 

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OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 0/15,4p
  • IRE: 7/85,18p
  • FR: 1/31, 7p

Headgear

  • CP: 3/31,7p
  • Blinkers: 0/12,1p
  • Visor: 0/6,2p

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Top 4 in weights: 1/37,7p
    • Ignoring 2009 (8 runners): 0/33,6p
    • Since fence changes 2013 – 0/15,1p
      • (could be they go tad quicker over these fences, bigger weight not ideal- or just random)

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H – Run (career)

  • 9/9 had 19+ career starts
    • 18 or under: 0/39,4 places
    • 29+ starts: 6/44,13 places… +37 SP

 

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 0-7 handicap runs: 0/35, 6 places

 

H-Run (NH Race Type)

  • 9/9 had 13+ chase runs under their belt
    • 12 or fewer: 0/53, 6p
    • 6/48,17p had 13-20 chase runs

 

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

  • 0-6 handicap chase runs: 0/42, 6 p

 

H- Run (track))

  • 0: 1/42, 7p

 

H- Run (Track-NH Code)

  • 0 chase runs here: 1/55, 9p
  • 1+ chase run( inc Mildmay course) 7/77,20 p

 

H-Run (Fences).

  • 0 runs ‘very stiff’ fences: 0/22,2p
    • Very stiff,as per horse race base… Grand National Fences,

 

H- Run (class)

  • 0: 1/32,4p
  • Since fence changes: 0/10,1p

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

 

H-Win (Career)

  • 1-3 career wins: 0/24,7 places

 

H-Win (NH Race Type).

  • 0-1 chase wins: 0/18,6p

 

Miscellaneous 2

Distance Move

  • 5/8 were moving down in distance from last run
    • Up 1.5f to 2f (so I think 2m7.5f,or3m LTO) 0/40,7p

 

Highest Class Run

  • 9/9 had RUN G3 or above
    • 0/16,3p had not

Highest Class Win

  • 9/9 had won at C2 level or above previously
    • 0/36, 5p had not
      • 6/34,8p, +43 SP, had won at G2/3 level

 

H-Places (NH Race type)

  • 0-4 places (inc wins) : 0/38, 6places

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR)-last run – NH Race Type

  • Hurdle: 0/19,2p

(LR) Track

  • Cheltenham: 4/23, 8p
  • 1 win: Sedge/Cork/Clonmel/Sand
  • Aintree: 0/18,3p

Trainers (of interest)

  • Dessie Hughes: 2/5, 3p
  • NTD: 2/10,3p
  • 1 win : Moffatt/A King/P Hobbs/Waley Cohen
  • P Nicholls: 0/10,3p
  • P Bowen: 0/12,3p
  • D Pipe: 0/9,2p

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Some longer, 19 year pointers for the race…

19/19 Top 8 LTO or Did Not Finish (fell 0/7, PU|UR- 5/37)

15/19 Aged 9+

4/88,19p age 7+8

Ran 1-15 days ago – 0/73, 13 places…

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THE LONDON NATIONAL

A few brief pointers…

10/12 Top 5 LTO (tentative,as they cover most of runners)

12/12 – 12/1 or shorter SP

12/12 – Top 6 in the market

11/12 – 0-2 runs this season (1/24,3p had 3+ )

Trainers: T George (3/6,4p), 1 win – Sherwood/mulholland/Nicholls/E Williams/Lavelle/Hobbs/McCain

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GRAND SEFTON

Not too much jumping out at me here…

7 year olds- 0/39,6p (6yo 1/15)

11-12 on back- 0/14,1p

9/12 – ran 8-30 days ago

3/12 – ran 121-365 days ago

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That will be all for this post.

 

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