TTP Jumps Notes: 02/12/16 (COMPLETE)

NOTE: I will post up some stats/trends around lunchtime for a couple of races tomorrow, if you like using such things.  

 

SEDGEFIELD

1.40

Spiculas (all hncps) 2nd 3/1 >11/8

NOTE: Trainer in form, 3/13,7 places last 14 days. Horse in the unexposed ‘could be anything’ category and showed decent form previously. Has been off the track over 700 days. Trainer is 4/13,4 places all handicap hurdlers returning after more than 365 days off. Market may guide

Perseid (micro going IF HEAVY)

NOTE: unlikely to officially qualify, no rain forecast, good to soft.

 

3.25

Strike West (NHF)

NOTE: Hammond still not firing albeit the odd one running better, 0/16,4p last 14 days. Market may guide but he didn;t do too much in his previous two bumpers and there are some interesting ones in here. Unexposed though.

 

EXETER  CALLED OFF – FROST

12.55

Andy Kelly (hncp c)

NOTE: trainer in form last 14 days, 2/9. Horse is lighty raced and unexposed over fences. Unseated fairly early the last day. Lack of experience a concern but would still be ahead of the handicapper you would think, if putting it all together.

Uhlan Bute (micro – horse runs this season)

NOTE: Williams 4/29,12 places last 14 days. 1/14 over fences he was going to win the last day but for making an error late on- ftrustraing for my VW micro angle! His jumping wasn’t brilliant in the race albeit this isn’t the stiffest of tests. Clearly in good heart as he was going to hack up there- albeit moderate oppostion. Headgear is back on, which may help him concentrate.

 

1.30

Umberto D’Olivate (all hncps + hncp c)

NOTE: trainer 1/6,4 places last 14 days. Horse is in form and won for these stats LTO. Just a stamina question/unknown as with many in here. He has tried around this trip here once before in April, running 7l 3rd.

Royal Native (all hncps)

NOTE: Honeyball 9/8,4 places last 14 days. Trainer 7/95, 20 places with horses returning 121-365 days. Horse is 1/4 over fences and himself has a decent record fresh, 1/3,3p 121-365 days off. Has won over 27f at Fontwell over hurdles and gives visual impression he wants a test.

Gary Charm (micro – age)

NOTE: Pipe 2/13 last 14 days and had a double at Market Rasen on Thursday. One of those here. Out of form, all french form over 18/19f, hasn’t done much in the uk as yet inc LTO. Big stamina quetsion/doubt. But it is Pipe, so can never rule anything out. I think I would like to see some market support. Can’t think this has been a plan. Of some note maybe that Scudamore isn’t on.

 

2.40

Nice Thoughts (hncp h)

Carqalin (hncp h)

NOTE: Both Pipe, who could be coming into some form. Both are lightly raced but seem to have some questions to answer now based on recent runs. Still, they could show more at some point. The headgear is removed on the latter, that may help.

 

3.50

Dynamite Dollars (NHF)

NOTE: Nicholl’s horses going well enough, 8/43,16 places last 14 days. Horse ‘could be anything’ Market will guide I suspect.

 

SANDOWN

12.40

Vikehall (micro – class) UP

NOTE: Moore 2/30,5p last 14 days. Horse won 3 runner race LTO and at least is in some form. He is 0/5,0p in C3 now so has that to prove, but at least in good heart and he stays.

3.00

Gores Island (micro – class) 2nd 4/1

NOTE: Moore as above. Course winner, ran well after a break LTO. 8lb below last winning mark. Looks to have a solid chance I think.

***

My View:

Those I am happy to leave…

Strike West- I was waiting for any signs of market life but seems to be drifting out and Hammond 2/72,15p with NHF runners in the 14/1-40/1 range – so hard to find. He has had 2 NHF races (weak races that haven’t worked out well) where he didn’t do much. There look some interesting types in here, namely from Mulholland, McCain and Ellison. I would like to think one of theirs may take this. I will risk leaving a 20s+ shot here, unless he is clipped in and then a just in case 1/4, 1/2! It is one of those- I can’t see it, but the odds are such it would be a sikener.

Exeter has been abandoned as I write – what a bugger.

The ‘rest’ that remain I am happy to take a stab at, and have. Jefferson’s was 3s last night and money is coming, which is what you want to see. His record with such runners after a break gives some confidence and given his profile I was just about happy with 3s albeit getting on the short side for me.

Gores Island looks solid at Sandown, probably more so than Vikehall but at least he is in some sort of form and he could out run his odds.

***

That is all for today.

 

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