TTP Jumps Notes: 28/11/16 (COMPLETE)

A decent enough Sunday for the stats. Such a shame the Elliot 20/1 shot didn’t win out in the photo as that would have been a nice return and would have catapulted the bonus stats into positive territory.

I will update results as usual given another week has now ended. I will post up the link etc on Tuesday’s post.

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PLUMPTON

3.00

Leith Hill Legasi (hncp c)

NOTE: trainer 2/25,5 places last 14 days. Horse comes here on the back of two PUs and has always been best in proper soft conditions, 0/8,2p good/good to soft. Also now 0/7,1p OR 91 or higher and 0/8,1 place with no headgear on. Quieta few negatives there for me personally.

Flugzeug (micro – horse runs this season) (UR- shocker from jockey for me,dangerous-no shock he UR there,doubt he could see the fences-kept him on inside,crowded at every fence,not much daylight. Maybe my pocket talking!)

NOTE: trainer 0/8,0p last 14 days, 0/25,3 p last 30 days- so not yet hitting any form really. Horse is 1/18 over fences and clearly doesn’t win very often. Has run ok after a break, 0/5,2 p all runs 60+ days, one of those within a length. All conditions are fine and he ran OK when last seen. Plenty of negatives, and some in form rivals, but I would be more confident he could get involved than the one above.

 

LUDLOW

1.40

Allez Vic (micro – distance) UP (CP didn’t work)

NOTE: Trainer in form, 8/36,12 places last 14 days. Horse now 0/12,3p over fences but his mark is dropping and there has been the odd very good chase place, in much better races than this. Some hope rests on the first time cheekpieces maybe. He has the ability to win this, if putting his best foot forward- another that may be all about the headgear.

 

2.10

Mac Gregory (micro – TJC) PU (went wrong when still travelling very well, hopefully he’s ok. didn’t jump that well though,ultimately that caused injury)

NOTE: Williams again as above. This one looks to have been backed over night, 5s>3s. This one is unexposed over hurdles and there will be more to come at some point. He has run well twice here before, inc a win in a bumper. This isn’t quite as deep as that Cheltenham race I don’t think. Takes step up in trip which may unlock more.

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My View:

I am comfortable leaving Leith Hill Legasi this time- I think there are a few too many negatives there for me, inc recent form.

The rest look of some interest to me, esp the two Williams horses. There are reasons why they both may go close here. And the Mullins horse is hard to fully write off,albeit there seem to be a couple well fancied in the race,who are fit and in form. But he is around 8s.

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