TTP: Jumps Notes: SAT 26/11/16 (COMPLETE)

 

4 meetings on one day has led to another busy Saturday that may need some sifting! I think there are 20 possibles. If you use the guide yourself and think I have missed any,do say!

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BANGOR

12.00

Supreme Asset (micro – going) UP

NOTE: McCain 0/18,5p last 14 days, 3/52 last 30 days- indications that hey may be/going a bit cold. Seems to have a clear chance, 6/4. Not my kind of price and I won’t be playing him. That price is  short given form of yard I think,seems to find winning hard. 1/20 over fences. Chances could be given to the other three also. I am happy to leave at those odds. Clearly expected to go well.

 

1.05

Benzel (hncp chase + micro distance) UP

NOTE: Jonjo, who had a winner on Friday, 4/57 last 14 days before that winner. This horse is 2/6,3 places over fences and is unexposed. The form of his Uttoxeter win a few starts back has worked out well, and when Aiden unseated at Warwick two starts ago his reaction suggested he had just unshipped off one he thought would go close. His last run was poor- but, it could be he hates going RH, all his best form LH, he may prefer flatter tracks and he did make a big blunder there which knocked him a bit. Form of yard may have been to blame also but signs of life recently. Potentially a bit of pace on which could suit his hold up style. Suspect he could be better than this mark. Not one I will be putting you off given profile and odds of 7s/8s.

Askamore Darsi (micro going) UP

NOTE: McCain again- I fancied this one the last day, and tipped him at 20s. He ran like a pig, never looking interested. He sulked, for the first time in a while. He gets a first time visor on here and will race prominently/try and make all. Given he stays well I suspect they will try and make use of him. The yard form is a concern – I think you are taking a 9/1 chance on whether the headgear works- if it does, and he is obviously travelling well after the first 3/4 fences- he will go close for me. If he fades/sulks again I am not sure when I will trust him again. He does have a patchy profile but all conditions are fine here and he is on his last winning mark.

This looks a fascinating race- Bailey has an interesting one in here who could be anything,and he can ready them after a break. The two above may disappoint but I think are worth a go at the odds. Trusting the stats I think. Reasons why they could improve on recent runs and conditions fine for both, Jonjos still unexposed.

 

2.50

Go West Young Man (hncp h) 2nd

Nordic Nymph (hncp h) WON 5/2>9/4

NOTE: Daly trains both those above and his is in form, 2/9,4 places last 14 days.

Bourne (micro going) UP

Catching On (micro age) UP

My View: A trappy race and I don’t want to be backing all 4 personally. Nordic Nymph is the most interesting but is 5/2. 4/8,5 places over hurdles there could be more to come. Returned after lengthy absence the last day and they have taken their time, hopefully ensuring they avoid the dreaded ‘bounce’ (second start after lengthy lay off) . Go West Young Man is a headcase- took an age to win, has won after a break and trainer can ready them- depends what mood he is in I think. Has the ability to win this if tuned up. Can throw his race away before, and during , the race. He is 9s though. Catching On- market should guide hopefully- a lengthy break and he is a long distance chaser at heart, albeit unexposed enough over hurdles. Can’t think he is tuned up here to win, but if any signs of life in market I may take note. Jonjo only 5/50,10 places handicap hurdlers returning more than 365 days off. Again he is a good price and has the form to win. Market ‘may’ give us clues as to whether he is tuned up.

I am happy to leave Bourne at 13/2 personally -not a 12/1+ clanger if he does go in- a few too many in here with more interesting profiles I think,who could have more in hand. Has been running well though,albeit beaten quite far the last day. Unlikely to get an easy lead here and while has form on soft, better on good. On balance, what with the trainer form, at 13/2 I think I am comfortable leaving him. Go West Young Man moves into uncharted stamina territory also, having done all his running/winning around 20f. I can’t think Daly would put two in here to go at it. Maybe taking a ride in the horse box to blow cobwebs away. Not sure, but I think I am happy to leave him also. Could be a clanger but at least not a monster priced one. Nordic the most likely winner, with an eye/possible interest on Jonjo’s, esp if nibbled at.

 

NEWCASTLE

1.10

Boric (all hncps) 3rd 25/1

NOTE: trainer 0/6,0 places last 30 days but a small yard and plenty of them have gone off big prices. I think this one has to be backed at 20s, EW maybe… he is 2/3 over CD, seems to like the place,and the going. He was PU LTO over 24f which is too far and he probably needed the run. Last season he was also pulled up on seasonal debut and next time turned up here, over CD, and won. He is 2/10 over fences. The jockey booking is odd- I think this is only his 13th jumps ride, having ridden for most of his career on the flat. Brooke has ridden this one before but he is injured i think, and so has Cockburn, but he is attached toi Russel’s I believe and rides hers in here. Given the number of meetings today maybe there wasn’t much choice. Anyway, at 20s, I can’t leave him and will trust the stats. Given his profile there isn’t much to say to put you off at that price. He could just have issues at the moment and there are a few interesting ones in here.

 

DONCASTER

3.05

Paddys Runner (all hncps) UP

NOTE: King 7/44,16 places last 14 days, going ok without being red hot I suppose. Nothing to say here to dissuade you from just trusting the stats. He is 2/7,5p over hurdles and there could be more to come at some point given his age. He has yet to prove he stays this far but ran the last day as if he is worth another go at the trip and he should have grown/strengthened up a bit from last year with any luck. Yet to fully prove he doesn’t stay and again at around 7s is a decent enough price. Good young jock on also. It could be he is too high in the handicap or doesn’t stay but they are all unknown a bit for me. This may tell us more.

 

3.40

Irish Prophecy (NHF) WON 5/1

NOTE: trainer 1/10,2 places last 14 days. Small numbers here- 2/3 with her bumper runners , 5/20,8 places all horses making career start for her (in bumpers no doubt) so can ready them. Could be anything,and in that scenario 5s looks ok. Market will probably guide so will know our fate as the flat rises- well certainly whether we are likely to get a run for our money.

 

NEWBURY 

1.30

Warriors Take (hncp c) 2nd

NOTE: Nicholls again, no problems with form here. Horse is unexposed over fences so always dangerous to rule out albeit this is a marked step up on what he has done to date and he was rather poor the last day, which raises some questions. This is a decent race- no 4/5 runner novice so it will be interesting to see how he copes.

Generous Ransom (micro – class) UP

NOTE: Hobbs’ horses going ok, 8/52,17 places. This horse is well handicapped on old form and would be dangerous to all is this trainer can get him back to his best. They try a tongue tie here which could be of some concern- always suggests they think a possible breathing problem. He was a bit laboured the last day on his return when 11/10 fav – odds which suggest he was fit enough, but maybe he will come on for it. Dangerous to dismiss given his back class/form.

Mystifiable (micro – runs 90 days) UP

NOTE: Trainer ‘in form’ 6/24,12 places last 14 days, no problems on that front. Horse was progressive last year and is still unexposed, 2/4 over fences. He has a good record fresh 60+ days and returned to win after 400+ days last October. Trainer is 8/52,21 places handicap chasers returning 121-365 days- so he can ready them. Catching him after a break may be the best time to get him and he is a CD winner- so interesting they return here with him. Looks a interesting bet to me and we do have 4 places to play with in this if you prefer EW. His mark has gone up plenty but he is yet to prove conclusively that he can’t handle it. Looks like something may have gone amiss the last day and hopefully they have him back on song here.

 

2.05

Robinshill (hncp h) UP

NOTE: NTD 7/36,16 places last 14 days, going well enough. Horse is just progressive and in form. Goes back up to 20f here and has that to prove but every chance that unlocks further improvement. Something in here could have plenty more in hand (Nicholls horse below,the Skelton horse, Hobbs’ runner, may top that list) He hasn’t done much wrong – question of whether he stays but worth another go at this- looks like he just keeps galloping and he will be up there for most of the way.

Favorito Bucks (micro – distance) UP 10/1>16/1

NOTE: Nicholls again- an interesting profile, unexposed, ‘could be anything’ horse so always dangerous to dismiss. Hard to weigh up as he steps up in trip on handicap debut and there should be more to come from him at some point, albeit poor when last seen. He did wear a tongue tie on his last run, and that isn’t here now which suggests he may have had a wind op I think. Educated guesswork there. The market can guide with this type from this yard but he is 9s at the moment and given his profile I can’t put you off at this stage. If he drifts leading up to the race it could be he isn’t fit. No idea how good he is.

 

2.40

Ritual of Sense (all hncps + hncp h + hncp h debut) UP 12/1>16/1

NOTE: Greatrex — 2/24,10 places last 14 days, and his Shantou Bob ran better than I expected yesterday, not carrying any of my money – he seemed to find a second wind at a big price to chase home another TTP pick who won well enough in the end. That one is worth noting as he could sluice up in a handicap one day, given he has a touch of class I think. Anyway… AH… what a plonker… for Shantou above it looks like I looked at Warren’s chase stats with those after a break, but that was a hurdle yesterday and I may have got away with one there… over hurdles he is much better with those returning 121-365 days off.. 10/55,23 places with handicap hurdlers (now 0/8,2p 365+ days) . So fitness is no concern, esp on the back of ‘Bobs’ run yesterday. This one is unexposed and could be anything- interesting jockey booking but they are 2/19,9 places in handicap hurdles and he can ride. Given his unexposed profile not much to say there. Conditions look fine and there could be more to come. Market may guide.

 

3.10

Saphir Du Rheu (hncp c) UR

Vicente (hncp h) UP

Un Temps Pour Tout (hncp c) UP

NOTE: I have previewed this on the free blog post and have tipped Saphir. He ticks too many boxes for me to ignore- not sure if he will truly stay but it is an unknown and there is enough evidence over 24f not to be put off. I can’t say much to put you off the other two really either if you like their chance. Vicente is strong on the stats- jockey bookings to me suggest this is the first run of a plan of sorts, aimed at some sort of National maybe. I wonder if he will be quick enough/classy enough for this, but he will be staying on if the pace collapses, and if he is fit. Un Temps – well to win a Festival handicap like he did showed he has a touch of class,and there should still be more to come. He only has 1 chase win to his name which is a big negative against my stats, and ran over hurdles LTO which is also a neg, + has blinkers- another neg. I have talked myself out of backing him but he could be my one clanger of the day on this page maybe! Native River, Vicente and Blaklion seem to have his measure on recent meetings also. We shall see. I personally wont be backing him and at the moment he is 9s, which I can just about live with, not a 16s+ howler.

 

3.45

Ulck Du Lin (hncp c) UP

NOTE: Nicholls again, in form. This one has the ability but his last three runs have been awful, esp his last one, where he was going backwards long before fitness should have been a question. He is a big price, but nearly every other horse in here is in better form and he his last three runs at the track have been awful as well – albeit he is a CD winner. Hard to weigh up- his odds make me cautious about leaving him totally- but on paper he looks up against it on recent form to my eye. He is also hard to win with and has to be kidded into it. Cant see what he is doing differently and why he would suddenly bounce back into form, unless he takes a liking to his new jockey!

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BONUS

Ireland…

3.50 – DEANO (trainer hncp chasers here, 4/8,4places)

 

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My View.

Well a general point that evidence after 8 weeks suggests that backing all ‘general race type’ stats (so hncps, hncp c, hncp h, NHF) has been no bad ploy. Less so the micro systems, but they are only a few winners away from doing just fine. So something to keep an eye on, as per the last results update (in results tab at top)

 

Maybe I will just stick with who I am personally happy to leave at this stage.

Supreme Asset is too short for me, so will just watch him.

The 2.50 – I may well leave all three alone- so danger there. Nordic is too short for me at the 15/8,7/4 mark- he could bolt up here again though. I don’t like Bourne or Go West Young Man. The market is indicating that Catching On may need this- any life, and shortens from the 10s, backed into 8s/7s say, I may have a go for 1/2 point or something- indications are at this stage that he isn’t here to compete.

A couple of Nicholls horses I am happy to leave and given their prices, possible clangers…but Warriors Tale goes into a deep enough race here I has some questions to answer for me. He is unexposed though and I have made clangers with that type before,but he isn’t in form.  Ulk Du Lin doesn’t look like he is in good enough form.

I wont be backing Un Temps Pour Tout personally but can understand if you ignored that- he could leave me red faced. But on my stats approach I can’t have him. On what he has done on paper/track, he could go well.

So, that is 8 I am happy to leave, Nordic will probably win but hopefully for my pocket the rest get beat.

Plenty of that above is subjective and we shall see if I get it right. The other 12 look interesting enough to my eye, plenty of unexposed ‘could be anything’ types in there, including ‘not being very good’ . Some decent enough prices.

Good luck with however you play them.

Josh

 

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