SAT: Big Race Trends/Stats/Pointers: Hennessy Gold Cup

Hennessy Gold Cup 2016

I will look at all of the last 19 renewals available in HRB given the race conditions haven’t really changed and field sizes have generally been consistent. It gives us a bigger stats pool to play with also…

19 renewals

331 runners / 70 placed horses (inc winners)

 

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 16/19 Top 3 LTO
  • 11/19 WON LTO
    • 11/92, 20 places
      • 2nd: 2/52, 15 p
      • 3rd: 3/36,13 p
      • Fell: 1/19,5p
      • PU: 1/30,2p
      • So, 4th or worse but completed: 1/92, 14 places

 

Horse Age

  • 17/19 Aged 6-8
    • 17/218,54 places…89% winners…66% runners…77% placed horses
    • Age 5: 0/6, 1 p
    • Age 9: 2/64, 9 places
    • Age 10+ : 0/43, 6 places
    • Horses aged 9+ are 0/34, 8 places 2010-
      • There was an ‘older’ winner in 2009,maybe of some interest there were 11 runners aged 9+ in that race, when average is around 5/6 (oh, and it was Denman. Maybe an exception to the rule) 

 

Days Since Run

  • Not much on this angle
    • Of note: 181-300 days off: 7/89 runners…26 places (so, don’t be put off by a break)
    • Other 11 ran 6-60 days ago.

 

Horse Weight (exc claims)

  • 10-00: 2/60,7p
  • 10-1-10-3: 0/33, 5 places (could just be random)
  • 10-8-10-11: 0/64, 9 places (could just be random)
  • 11-9-11-11: 0/16, 1 place (could just be random)
  • 11-12: 3/16, 7 places
    • All those that won carrying 11-12 had won a Grade 1
      • Albeit, only 0/4,1p had not. (Smad Place hasn’t)

 

Horse Official Rating

  • Nothing here really.

Season Runs

  • Nothing here again

Odds

  • Winners all the way up to 25/1
    • 15/19 priced 10/1 or shorter
    • 4/19 priced 11/1-25/1
    • Over 25/1: 0/95, 7 places

 

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • Nothing much here,
    • GB: 4/66,12p
    • IRE: 11/191,40p
    • FR; 4/69, 15p

Headgear

  • CP: 1/24, 7 places
  • Blinkers: 0/18,1p
  • Visor: 0/7,2p

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Nothing here really

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H (Horse) -Run (90 days)

  • 2+ : 1/67, 6 places

H – Run (career)

  • 24+ : 0/66, 6 places

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 15/19 : 0-3 runs in handicaps
  • 9+ handicap runs: 1/101, 13 places

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

  • 14/19 had 0-1 runs in handicap chases
  • 9 + runs in handicap chases: 1/66, 9 places

H- Run (Track)

  • 5 winners had never ran at track, 8 had never run over fences here.
  • 14/19 had run at the track before in some form
    • 14/186 runners, 47 places…74% winners…56% runners…67% places

H-Run (Last Win)

  • 15/19 had won at least one of last two starts
    • 17/19 had won on at least one of last 4 starts
      • Had not:2/81, 18 places

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 16/19 had placed on their last start
    • 18/19 had placed on one of last two starts
      • Had not: 1/79, 10 places

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

  • 0-1: 0/18,2 p

H-Win (NH Race Type).

  • 0-1 chase wins: 0/39, 5 places

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

  • 16/19 had 0-1 handicap wins
    • 2+ : 3/156, 19 places

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 16/19; 0-1 handicap chase wins
    • 2+ : 3/123, 13 places
      • 2 of those winners since 2008, one in 2013

 

Miscellaneous 2

Highest Class Win

  • Yet to win above C3: 0/37, 5 places

H-Places (Hncp- NH Race type)

  • 17/19 : 0-3 places in handicap chases (inc wins)
    • 4+ 2/84, 11 places (those two winners since 2008)

 

Jockey Claims

  • 19/19 had no jockey claims
    • 3lb: 0/19,2 places
    • 5lb: 0/15, 1 p
    • 7 lb: 0/4,0 p
    • Total: 0/38, 3 places

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR)-last run – NH Race Type

  • Hurdles: 0/25, 2 places

(LR) No. of Runners

  • 3-4: 0/18, 2 places

(LR) Festival

  • Those that had last start at Cheltenham Festival: 4/21, 7 places
  • Aintree Grand National: 2/25, 6 places

 

(LR Odds)

  • 18/19 went off 14/1 or shorter on last start
    • 16/1+ : 1/53, 10 places

 

 (LR) Track

  • Cheltenham: 6/73, 15 places
  • Ascot: 2/24, 4 places
  • Aintree: 2/31, 6 places
  • Wincanton: 2/28, 8 places
  • 1 win: Sand/Wetherby/Kempton/Hayd/Chep/Newton A/Carlisle
  • Punchestown: 0/12,3p
  • Down Royal: 0/12,1p
  • Ayr: 0/15,3p

 

Trainers (of interest)

  • N Henderson: 3/19, 8 places
  • P Nicholls: 3/35, 11 places
  • 1 win: M Bradstock/D Pipe/E Williams/O Sherwood/N Williams/A King/P Hobbs/NTD/V Williams
  • Tizzard: 0/4,2p
  • Mrs S J Smith: 0/8,1p
  • W Mullins: 0/10,2p
  • Jonjo: 0/5,2p
  • M Morris: 0/5,3p
About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • Afternoon Josh,

    Been musing over these for the last hour myself. I think you got most of them. Only thing I would add is its a plus to have ran/won here before:
    10/84 have 1+ wins
    9/247 have not
    14/186 have ran here before
    5/145 have not
    Its also a plus to have had a run over 3m to 3m1.5f LTO (13/18 although does include a large portion of past runners)

    Personally I’ve been going round in circles trying to find anything that fits and the only one that was interesting was Vicente and even that was a tentative pick. I am half tempted to just leave it given no doubt both you and Dr Nick will pick enough to keep me entertained. What do you make of Harry Skelton having his first ride for Nicholls for over 3 and a half years?

    Regards,
    Nick

    nickmazur 24/11/16 1:10 PM Reply


    • Afternoon- yep haven’t looked as yet- my aim always with those is to try and knock out horses to create a more manageable list but it seems that may be a challenge- and best just approaching in like any normal handicap chase!

      Jockey bookings of the Nicholls horses are interesting… and Sean Bowen is of most interest as Nicholls must have given him special compensation to ride hs dad’s horse? Henri could really flourish this year, excited to see how he goes. Albeit his jumping in big fields a question, and he can be held up too far for my liking- could be a bit of pace on.

      Anyway- bookings suggest that Sam would have ridden Saphir- so that looks the main stable hope. I can’t think if Nicholls was that confident over Vicente that he would have let Bowen off- as he surely would have ridden his next string,with Sam being out. But, Skelton clearly no bad replacement and he has wanted to ensure a top jock is on, so who knows!! Sometimes best not to second guess.

      Josh 24/11/16 1:42 PM Reply


  • Nick
    Reference Vicente (Last year’s Scottish National Winner)
    I did a couple of nights work on this race a month ago.
    Josh knows that I am keen on this horse.
    I am carrying bets of 40/1
    Current price 20/1, I consider a good bet
    Vicente is entered for the Welsh Grand National, 27th Dec 2016
    Best price is 20/1, Sky & 365 (I am hoping that it will not be that after Saturday!)

    Clavis 24/11/16 2:37 PM Reply


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