TTP Jumps Notes: 23/11/16 (complete)

RESULTS UPDATE POST IS HERE>>>

***

 

WETHERBY 

3.00

Visandi (hncp h + micro distance) UP 8/1

NOTE: Jonjo 2/63,13 places last 14 days but a few more have been running better, esp those that may have had the run I think. The odd green shoot which suggests his time may be coming again. This horse is unexposed and making handicap debut, and he has enough such winners to be interested. I have backed him EW, in part because the fav was mightily impressive the last day and he does look the one to beat in similar conditions here- and he escapes the penalty. But that is just my own reading of it. The horse steps up in trip which I like to see also, and Coleman is on which is a positive.

 

3.30

Its All About Time (NHF) NR

NOTE: Hammond 1/19,3 places last 14 days, given he was 0/32 in the 14 days or so before that, again maybe some green shoots starting to emerge. This is the horse’s second start and he didn’t do much the first time- but was fancied enough at 11/2 maybe not to lose all hope. The market clearly favours the top two, inc the one below, but he is 20s+ and given his profile – ‘could be anything including not very good’ I will trust the stats and have an EW stab again i think.

Keep In Time (NHF) UP 7/2 (drifted)

NOTE: Skelton 6/40,13 places last 14 days, going ok. Horse makes first start and the yard have an ok record with those yet to have been on a racetrack, 15/95,36 places last 2 years. Market may guide- and it is saying he could go very well.

 

MY VIEW:

Well not much to say here at all. They all have a ‘trust the stats unexposed profile’. The Hammond horse could still be running come 4.00 but the odds allow a dabble I think. The other two look interesting enough.

 

***

The following are for Hereford. These ARE NOT counted in official results as they look at stats from 2010/11/12 before the track was closed- but it will be interesting to see if the same trainers target the course…

2.15

Shows Over (hncp c) UP

3.50

Super Sam (all hncp) WON 6/1>3/1

Cruise In Style (hncp h) UP (seemed to be travelling well behind runners before maybe not picking up in ground as they turned in)

 

***

Complete.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

13 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • As any NH racing follower or indeed any follower of horse racing should be aware the exploits of Brian Hughes recently are astounding. This guy is starting to break records I would think for monthly winners to rides and though I dont have HRB access I would appreciate anyone who has, including you Josh, to have a look to see if this anywhere near correct.

    Tom

    fingers 22/11/16 8:00 PM Reply


    • I think McCoy had 41 winners in a month, so he is a little behind that but ya Brian Hughes is in superb form and well able to switch a horse off and conserve energy for a strong finish. Contemplating an acca with his runners tomorrow but knowing my luck this will be the day he stops winning.

      Kevin 22/11/16 11:43 PM Reply


      • I can do some more digging when time allows but his top level stats for the year are in line with the previous 2 years.
        All rides in 2016 to date are 101/617 rides, -52 Sp… that 16% win strike rate is in line with previous 2 years, where he also rode 100+ winners… this looks likely to be his best year to date.

        He could be the topic of a more in depth study I think, and will add it to the list. More trainers seem to be using him and I can’t recall him having as many trebles/4 timers etc- but everyone will know about Hughes now and the odds of his mounts, esp when riding for those he wouldn’t normally, may start to tumble. For sure his booking on any horse is worth a serious look.
        But, maybe I will record an over the shoulder HorseRaceBase video and see what we can find! Something to keep us entertained next week maybe.
        Josh

        Josh 23/11/16 8:56 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Could you look at the results of Handicap and Novice Handicap only from the start,
    prices are larger than novice and national hunt flat races,should cut the number of bets,
    and the profit could be higher.
    I only joined on the 12 November so no access to the past results.
    Cheers
    Colin

    colin leafe 23/11/16 8:36 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin,
      I am not sure I get what you mean?
      As you know there are no odds caps and that is deliberate. All results are obviously recorded in the daily posts- I don’t have a spreadsheet of every horse and their price- naturally the bigger SP of a horse the lower the win%, the more losers there are etc.

      In terms of Novice Handicaps- the only novice handicaps we look at are the Bonus Stats, and the Novice Handicap Chases- and there have only been a handful of those.

      I wouldn’t want to say ‘dont back over X price’ as there are decent priced winners, esp those that get backed in from 20s>12s>10s say. In theory those going off 12/1, 8/1 or shorter should have a higher win % and would cut bets down and maybe that could be a useful approach- backing everything in a certain price range and then taking a more ‘horse by horse’ approach as the odds increase.

      I am not sure how beneficial that work would be really – odds/market can be linked to trainers/owners etc – when I trialled some flat systems over the summer I had odds caps- and loads of them were blown out the water with numerous winners above them – which is why I think I prefer, ideally, not to have odds caps, and instead to use the bigger priced ones as a starting point.

      All the results are on the blog, in terms of in the daily posts – where the horse came and often their starting price – well the price of all the winners is recorded- I could look through at some point and note the SP of all winners, as that could provide some sort of guide, for the different sections.

      But, there will be the odd 20/1, 33/1, and maybe one day 50/1 shot go in with this approach i suspect.

      of course you are free to attack them as you wish, esp if wanting to narrow down bets- we have a good base, the knowledge especially with the ‘general race types’ stats that backing them all has done just fine.

      Josh

      Josh 23/11/16 8:51 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Today there are six bets counting Hereford four are Handicaps,
    have you any data base results that can show the Handicap figures against the rest of the TTP results,
    for i feel they will show a better return in the long run.
    I will start today recording the Handicaps seperate but if your machine can do a results check even at sp
    it would give my theory a longer start than today.
    Cheers
    Colin

    colin leafe 23/11/16 10:12 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin,

      Firstly as noted the Hereford stats are a guide and not really ‘official’ selections given the data is from 2010/11/12 before the track was closed- but of course you can follow if you wish…

      The national hunt flat races are the only race types that are Non Handicaps in the entire guide, including the Bonus stats, which are handicaps for Ireland (+ a NHF non handicap one) and also Novice Handicap Chasers..

      The General Race Types (Excluding NHF races) and ALL Micro Angles sections refer to Handicaps only (excluding novice handicaps, as explained in the intro to the guide)

      It would be easy enough I suppose to strip out the NHF selections but again there haven’t been masses of those.

      The majority of qualifiers are all handicaps, all bar the National Hunt Flat races. We do not follow novice races/maidens etc etc.

      All the best
      Josh

      Josh 23/11/16 10:20 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Did not realize that there are no novice or maiden.
    Has you do all the work for us did not read your TTP guide.
    Once again thank you for your speedy replies and now i feel a fool !!!
    Cheers
    Colin

    colin leafe 23/11/16 10:38 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin,

      No to worry! But it is worth the read, albeit I should probably make it into an audio book haha. I can drone on.

      Last years did have more novice stats in I think – but can you imagine the no. of qualifiers! At times so far even with just this approach there have been a few too many for my own comfort but I would rather start this way round, where we can cut back ourselves or start with small stakes and increase etc.
      Josh

      Josh 23/11/16 10:53 AM Reply


  • TTP Super Sam despite the absence obviously fancied by team Venetia won well enough to suggest a follow up but was a low grade affair Lets hope she puts into another TTP qualifying contest

    finalflight 23/11/16 4:11 PM Reply


    • Yep did that well- ended up backing him myself at 6s when I realised it was soft with rain forecast. Wont count in official results but hopefully some may have ended up having a go. has done that a bit too well- he would have been 100% fitness wise there to win, so wont come on for it I dount. Jockey won a bit too far. Races prominently though and when mud is flying looks like he can just keep grinding . More wins in him maybe at a moderate level, albeit that kind of slick jumping and relentless galloping can take you far during the winter- a poor mans Yala Enki maybe!

      Josh 23/11/16 4:21 PM Reply


      • When you see that 2nd and 3rd have won one race from a combined 24 starts it does temper the enthusiasm but as you say the jump/gallop style will see him through especially as can’t believe he was fully 100% for today, stick him in the tracker and see where he ends up next

        finalflight 23/11/16 4:28 PM Reply


        • Yea, clearly not ‘hard race fit’ but my chasers research suggests those on their second start after a long break lose an absolute packet- I don’t think you leave much to work with to win like that in those conditions- albeit having a tonne in hand helps! Yep be interesting to see how far he can progress.

          Josh 23/11/16 4:46 PM Reply


Post A Reply