FREE DAILY POST: 23/11/16 (COMPLETE)

NOTE: I have updated the result for the Trainer Track Profiles: Jumps 2016/17 Qualifiers HERE>>> as we are now 2 months in. They are nearing +100 points which is a bit ridiculous really – Pensioner William left a nice comment – he started with a £50 bank betting £1 bets and seems to be enjoying himself which is what it is all about.  More such comments are welcome 🙂

Anyway, you can see the summary of the results and a link to detailed results per track HERE>>> 

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TIPS

None. I am currently erecting a large mirror for me to just stare into, wistfully, harping back to the days when my 3m+ handicap chase fancies would give me a run for my money, when I didn’t mis-judge shorter priced horses so abjectly. I will keep soldiering on but you cannot put up the number of chasers I have in recent months that fall out the back of the TV and carry on as if everything is fine. A bit of pondering to do, but when there is a decent 3m+ chase, there will be a preview/thoughts. Hard work is the only way out of the mire but I wouldn’t blame those of you who are questioning your faith 🙂 (and that isn’t a search for sympathy – I quite like the blunt ‘get a grip’ type comments- indeed one person politely emailed suggesting I was out of my depth. Those comments make you think! Quite simply it hasn’t been good enough I don’t think, stretching back a while.

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JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio – LIVE TEST

Chase

2.15 Hereford – NothandSouth 2nd 7/1>4/1  (NTD, 15/2< do very well,generally)

 

Bonus

A couple from the archive…

E Lavelle (that 5 year old angle mentioned previously)

1.10 Hereford – Full Irish – UP 7/2>6/4

Amanda Perrett AW (another I stopped following before a tranche of winners)

(12/1< guide, system rules in comments below) 

7.25 Kempt – Kasbah

 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Four ‘Bonus’ Qualifiers from my AW stats pack…

(you can get a free version of the stats pack and/or consider buying the full version for a reasonable £7 HERE>>>)

I won’t reveal the angles as that isn’t fair to members/those who have bought guide…

 

Wolvs

1.30 – Shees Lucky – 3rd 8/1>20/1 

2.05 – Oxford Thinking- UP 6/4

 

Kempton

5.55 – Saluti

6.55 – Star Storm

 

**

That will be all for Wednesday. Good luck with your bets. Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

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  • Interesting thoughts on your 3m chase tipping Josh. Do you think that the fact you are looking at so many other races it is now affecting your reading of this type. I mean now your devoting time to TTP, is it? and lots of varying system both young and old, what was once your core area of expertise is now getting less overall research? Or have these chases changed a bit this season and your approach hasn’t? Just a few thoughts and by no means am i meaning to criticise your current approach.

    Jim

    Jim 22/11/16 4:21 PM Reply


    • I think we can all take too much on, notes is the way forward i think though and you do make interesting notes, my NH tipping/betting has been terrible since the season supposedly started.
      I am now going to concentrate on the AW (even with the AW meeting being cancelled today, so much for that eh?), plus occasionally dipping into the big race meetings at the weekends.
      Hopefully might sort my own losing run out!?
      You know you can pick winners and once your confidence is back again i know the winners will follow!!

      Stewart 22/11/16 6:00 PM Reply


    • Hi Jim,
      You can feel free to criticise away- polite well reasoned critique will always be welcome in these parts.
      I think it is a mix of factors…
      There is more going on ‘in my head’ now- certainly with the members club and the TTP stats, trying to ensure I am delivering quality free content for everyone, paid for content, and there is the business side of things – and all that takes time. But, that could be looking for excuses…
      In part it may be a time of the season – we shall see but so far my best chase form has always been back end of November through to The Festival I imagine- (Festivals are hard to turn a profit but we have done ok on that front)
      Then we hit the summer months etc. I suppose by the end of November many horses have had a run or two, and I can picture their recent races etc.

      In part it is approach. I need to improve my note take, video watching, assessment of the market etc. All the basics are there but it is also about being methodical, i think I need to re energise a checklist and make sure I stick to it… who is unexposed (proven + unproven in conditions) who is exposed and wont handle conditions, who is exposed and is suited to conditions/+ well handicapped etc, who is doing something different that may be a reason for an improvement in form (jockey booking/track/headgear change/etc) / Pace, Trainer form (current + track)

      You can cut corners etc, esp when I have a lot of other stuff on my plate etc. But, it is all there in my head and it will come again.

      I would like to think that anyone who picks the last two Becher chase winners at 33/1, Festival handicap winners at 20s, and can make +170 points in around a 4 month period- last December through to early April 2016, has the basics- but it is a tough game- form does fluctuate but I have always struggled with inconsistency. But then again my win strike rate usually hovers around 16% which is part me needing to improve but part the difficulty of the races/field sizes I attack etc. That kind of win % means it will be very choppy at times.

      So, always plenty to ponder, but it will right itself at some point. Some ‘back to basics’ needed, and a more systematic/methodical approach to analysis/thinking maybe.
      Josh

      Josh 23/11/16 8:33 AM Reply


      • What I do is when I am not picking winners I take a break for a while and do some real work as an Acciuntant/Consultant. I then get fed up with that and go back to serious punting. It usually works. And taking the dogs walking in the woods and across the fields in the fresh air.

        So applying this to Josh…. take two weeks off tipping and looking at 3M chases. Or get a job and a dog!

        Not much on this Wednesday. Prince of Arran goes up in class but may go well in the 6.55 KP? The Moore’s are putting cheek pieces on Sexton Blake, 4.55 KP. Could do the trick and you can get 8/1 now.

        Good luck.

        martin colwell 23/11/16 1:27 PM Reply


  • Been following a (AW) system involving J Fanshawe 2nd LTO.
    last five yrs 21 wins from 58..36%
    2 from 2 in class one’s ..16 from 37 at Kemp..43%
    10 from 20 in non hcps Kemp.

    6:55K Star Storm 4/1F..It’s a Bet365 feature race too

    ian straker 22/11/16 4:50 PM Reply


    • Cracking angle that, Ian

      Good find

      Ali 22/11/16 8:08 PM Reply


  • For what its worth Josh. Loosing spells are all part and parcel. Chin up. I noticed you recently using speed figures to help with selections. Im not a fan myself. Simple really as certain horses need differnt styles to operate at there best so a horse coming off a slow pace as needing cover may not produce a figure as high as a front runner. Can be misleading. Pace angles slightly different i dont use them but can for sure see how they can help knowing what tracks suit certain running styles.
    A wiser man than me said that around 80% races are won by the top 10% trainers/ jocks etc and that has stuck. The winner had top jock on i see. Also trainer whilst not clicking at the track she has a gd record on soft conditions. Your pick today i can find pointers as to why you may fancy it ie sire on soft is gd ( limited runners) but no hardened stats. Still looks well hcp back on Gd/soft mind.
    Put your stats with form and you have yourself a solid selection. Your def putting in alot of work and am pretty sure you will come out the otherside.

    james 22/11/16 5:55 PM Reply


    • Cheers James, yep a back to basics approach/thinking on those trainer/jock % lines is no bad thing. I couldn’t have backed the fav at 7/4 when looking – suppose you decide whether then to get involved…but actually on reflection the more criminal was not having an EW on the second place horse, who was 16s. Proven in conditions and loved Sedgefield, and was a prominent racer – the kind of horse last Jan/Feb I think I would have taken a stab at. Were pros and cons but return to boggy ground, a track he loves, new environment were all reasons why that was an decent enough price
      Anyway, plenty to ponder. It is cyclical and it will turn at some point!
      Josh

      Josh 23/11/16 8:38 AM Reply


  • Paddy Watch

    2.45 Hereford May Hay 1pt win 7/1 generally 8/1 WH

    rnning total +11.75

    gearoid180468 22/11/16 7:08 PM Reply


    • Hi Gearoid

      This combination popped in my HRB 3 rides, 3 wins since December 2014 and all on the same horse May Hay under very similiar conditions 1m 7 1/2F to 2m 1/2F soft, only difference where these were on LH tracks yet to win RH but has run well at Huntingdon / Kempton so don’t really see this being an issue an with Paddy booked again at these odds had a go

      Cheers
      Steve

      Steve Wiseman 22/11/16 7:45 PM Reply


  • It wouldnt surprise me Josh if you have some kind of ‘punting Seasonal Affective disorder’. For example, I do terribly during the transitional periods, ie. start of flat and start of NH season

    Another example being Geegeez Stat Of The Day which has gone to absolute pot every Winter since its inception

    Maybe you should just start tipping again once the Becher Chase returns!

    Ali 22/11/16 8:20 PM Reply


    • Yep that could be part of it I should think- ends and beginnings of seasons can be tricky from an ‘attacking them cold’ approach – I should just back the Sept/oct trainers, Venetia in November, and then get properly stuck in myself at end of this month onwards! but have been making silly errors,and second guessing myself etc- all psychological maybe, and that happens when you are on a bumpy run. Now to find another Becher winner….

      Josh 23/11/16 8:40 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    Touching on from Martin’s post yesterday regarding sires and their progeny for AW tracks as a way in to finding more winners and of course profits,

    As some of you know I have posted up quite a lot on this for Polytrack & Tapeta and tried a few different methods including draw / class & distance with some good successes and some blow outs too but ultimately to me not satisfactory for consistency of results and hard to use a staking plan with multiple possible selections for each race.

    With this in mind I have gone back to the drawing board and brought this right back down to basics. I’m currently building a list of sires for the AW with the following criteria : Track & Sire broken down by race distance that has a minimum win SR of 30% ideally 40% + with a higher place SR showing an overall consistency for that given track & surface and its optimum race distance…..I’ll share a couple of those today, the first being a proven performer and an absolute must have sire for the track……

    Track – Dundalk
    Sire – War Front

    Overall performance figures at Dundalk as follows:

    33 runs, 14 wins, 26 places, 42.42% win SR, 78.79% place SR

    5F – 1 run, 0 win, 0 place
    6F – 3 runs, 0 wins, 0 places
    7F – 18 runs 9 wins, 16 places
    1M – 8 runs, 3 wins, 5 places
    1M 2 1/2F – 3 runs, 2 wins, 3 places

    So if we are looking for optimum conditions its safe to say that War Front’s progeny running over 7F to 1M 2 1/2F at Dundalk is optimum and this changes the figures to……

    29 runs, 14 wins, 24 places, 48.28% win SR, 82.76% place SR

    These are much more satisfactory figures to me and the last qualifier was Red Avenger won 17.0 SP, 26.0 EX last Friday over 1 mile……

    The second sire is fairly new to the British racing scene although it has sired 2 horses that ran over here back to 2012 its only since July 2015 that more and more are popping up and are showing a liking for a certain surface….

    Track – Newcastle (Tapeta)
    Sire – Hat Trick (JPN)

    Overall performance for all tracks:
    85 runs, 8 wins, 30 places, 9.41% win SR 35.29% place SR

    Overall performance on Tapeta
    10 runs, 3 wins, 7 places, 30% win SR, 70% place SR

    Overall performance Newcastle (Tapeta)
    5 runs, 2 wins, 5 places, 40% win SR, 100% place SR

    5F – 1 run, 1 win, 1 place
    6F – 1 run, 0 win, 1 place
    7F – 3 runs, 1 win, 3 places

    Although its hard to say what its optimum distance will be with the limited data I think looking at any horse bred by Hat Trick running at Newcastle is worth paying close attention to as its overall performance improves markedly on the surface / track and I think we will see more and more trying it.

    Hope this helps

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 22/11/16 9:17 PM Reply


    • Cheers Steve, top content as always! If you could find 5-10 sire stats like that Warfront one any followers may have a rather lucrative winter 🙂 Will be trying to keep an eye on that for sure.

      I will did out my Southwell American Bred AW angle I looked at- definitely a way in with those types- that have never races on Southwell before/raced only a few times. But, that could be worth some further digging by your more expert AW eye!

      Josh 23/11/16 8:13 AM Reply


      • Excellent post. What do you think of Dark Angel as an AW sire?

        I will follow your steer for Dundalk.

        martin colwell 23/11/16 1:31 PM Reply


    • Hi Steve….terrific stuff as usual.

      Cheers mate. BOL.

      Tony Mc. 23/11/16 11:37 AM Reply


  • As I’ve only just joined and first look at blog what are the bonus horses
    Are they not full bets or just horses to watch

    Stephen Lowery 23/11/16 12:05 AM Reply


    • Hi Stephen…
      Good question and as ever I can confuse things with my language.
      So, there are things I post regularly within the ‘Jumps Angles’ section – there is the portfolio I am live testing and there are some other micro systems we have been following for some time..
      these are in the free reports/systems section.. http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/10/10/jumps-systems-portfolio-master-copies/

      The first ‘bonus’ above for Lavelle and Perrett are micro systems that are in my HRB account that I haven’t been posting regularly – albeit haven’t been many qualifiers for Lavelle- Perrett I stopped following closely on here but shouldn’t have- as soon as I did the winners came again.
      The Perrett angle looks at-
      AW handicaps
      Running Same or Up 1 Class Only
      Ran on The Flat Turf or National Hunt Last Time Out
      12/1 or shorter as a guide
      26/88,41 places, + 87 SP (since 2010)

      It was 1/12 in 2015 which is why I put it on the watch list… and now in 2016 it is 5/14,9 places, +35 points… insert expletive here 🙂

      1/26,4 places above 12/1, inc a 20/1 winners.

      The STATS/ANGLES BONUS…

      Those are taken from my AW stats pack which members get for free as part of their membership, or you can buy for £7 + vat separately if you wish.

      There is a free version of that report + details on how to get a copy here…

      http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/11/04/trainer-track-profiles-winter-all-weather-201617-2/

      Given there were no tips and it was fairly quiet, i just posted up todays qualifiers against those stats – I obviously wont reveal the stats as that isn’t fair to members/those that have bought it. But, you can trust them or keep an eye on them etc.

      As with most things on here it is all fairly well researched but dont go diving in- everyone will have different approaches to how they use the info, whether they follow everything systematically etc. Up to you how you play it but just ensure you have an adequate bank and you build up stakes over time- well that would be my advice.

      As you will see plenty of readers chip in with their own angles/approaches and there is usually something interesting to read!

      Thanks for reading!
      Josh

      Josh 23/11/16 7:56 AM Reply


  • hi steve great forethought thanks

    brian morris 23/11/16 3:33 AM Reply


  • wouldn’t Enfolding 5:55 qualify for fanshawe – kempton AW debut.

    Sam Blakr 23/11/16 7:33 AM Reply


    • Hi Sam, which angle are we referring to? My regular and only James Fanshawe micro that I post qualifiers for on here is for handicaps…
      Albeit you have just made me go and look again…

      Maiden runners at Kempton, that ran on turf LTO do ok…
      10/43,23 places… albeit -3 points to SP, which is why they are not included as I like an angle to be profitable at SP… but they are performing 25% above market expectations…I would think many are punted of the boards and taking morning/evening prices may lead to some decent profits on that angle.

      All his other runners running at Kempton, outside of maidens, are very profitable to follow at SP, or have been- albeit I think the market may be cottoning on to his ‘turf switch’ approach.

      Josh

      Josh 23/11/16 8:04 AM Reply


      • That makes sense, they go in often but most likely at blogger-esque prices.

        Makes it slightly interesting his runner there in the maiden is still availible at a perfectly reasonable price .. hmmm

        Sam Blakr 23/11/16 8:17 AM Reply


        • haha. Ahh ‘the blogger’ I love the blogger, great for the game- but his fixation with shorties is strange, and I have said that to him often enough. I much prefer his track side and health videos!
          Yep, the overall win/place stats are decent, just working out a way to profit from them systematically – unless you just use them as a guide and go on a horse by horse/race by race basis- must be only 8 qualifiers a year on average I think.

          Josh 23/11/16 8:21 AM Reply


  • hi josh, like the look of mrs a perrett AW system, will start backing them, already got £40 win on KASBAH before logged on @ 23 to 1 on betfair. where do i stand regarding these trainer track profiles NH, that are doing really well? i am paying £10 monthly as a member, does it cost me anymore to get it?

    thanks

    malc pendrey

    malcolm pendrey 23/11/16 10:40 AM Reply


  • further to above , NH TTP THAT IS

    malcolm pendrey 23/11/16 10:43 AM Reply


    • Hi Malcolm,
      You are all set up in the system, you should have full access to all Members only content- you just need to log in to the box at the top right with your username and password from when you signed up.

      Any problems on that front do email me… info@racingtoprofit.co.uk and I can send you your username/re set password- or you can use the lost password function at the top right also.

      You will then have access to the daily jumps notes posts (based on TTP stats), the exclusive reports (monthly research articles, big race trends/stats etc) and the exclusive downloads (TTP stats pack + AW stats pack worth £46 or so combined- great saving 🙂 )

      Josh

      Josh 23/11/16 11:10 AM Reply


  • Morning Josh,

    I wouldn’t worry about the form too much. You’re making your picks based on solid reasoning. I’ve been stuck in limbo since June. One of my tipsters who hasn’t had a losing month since July 2015 and made 150 pts last month is down -40 this month. Even Dr Nick is having a poor month by his standards. I think the weather has a big part to do with that. Just keep at it and results will come at some point.

    BTW you asked me for my thoughts on Nakadam before the race so sorry I didn’t get back to you yesterday. Obviously easy saying this after the race (although my response would have been the same before it) but to cut down variance I am very weary of backing runners where the trainer hasn’t shown any sort of form in the past 30 days. Over the last 12 months I’ve gone from backing them, to not backing them at all to settling at a happy medium of letting the odds dictate. So I probably would have left him alone at 6/1 on that basis alone but probably would have considered him if he was 12/1+. I am going to miss out on a bunch of short priced winners but hopefully will eliminate plenty of losers with this approach.

    Nick Mazur 23/11/16 10:47 AM Reply


    • Morning Nick, I am not overly worried yet albeit am concerned with the number of horses I am backing that are not running well- maybe I am too forgiving for poor recent runs- suspect Martin would concur with that!
      Yep I agree with everything you have said there about Nak- as I pondered last night I thought 6s was maybe short for one who PU LTO, who wasnt sure to handle heavy (an unknown) and the trainer form- he has been cold but I put that down to a load of poor horses/big odds runners turning up- the way Nak stopped suggests there could actually be a problem. He was a known hold up horse as well- arguably taking less than 8s/10s on such a type in a big ish field could be criminal as well- I know, you know, everyone knows that it is very hard to win from right out the back.
      Your bet was the one on reflection, a decent EW at 16s, for one proven in conditions, who loved the track, reasons why he may improve on recent form (heavy ground/track for first time in age) plus had changed scenery which may have helped, and headgear of choice – cheekpieces, returned. He was also a prominent racer and ran well in second, just bumping into one.

      I just need to get back to basics of the clarity of thought when weighing the pros/cons/knowns/unknowns and judging those against the price better.

      We will ride the wave again at some point!
      Josh

      Josh 23/11/16 11:20 AM Reply


      • Well I probably need to judge a little better myself although given that Jonjo has had a 25/1 winner and a 33/1 2nd today there is hope that our luck could also be changing!

        Nick Mazur 23/11/16 1:28 PM Reply


  • A few thoughts. No bets today unless 455 Kempton Summersaults hits 10/1 and would be worth a small ew but currently 7/1.
    340 Wolv the fav is way to short having missed the break lto up in class today is interesting as trainer does well with this angle but 15/8 for a GG missing the break lto is the road to the poor house.
    I was interested in berlusca who is now back with D omera 6/1 is skinny for a trainer who is poor with new recruits. Have to bare in mind he could make a mockery of the stat as he has had this one in his yard b4 so could well be a plot. The balding horse was interesting but Trainer/jock combi is poor so this race sets up nicely for a big priced one going well. Unfortuantly i cant find it. GL everyone today just a few thoughts having done a few hrs looking.

    james 23/11/16 2:31 PM Reply


  • Hi ..Josh not been on here for a while ..came back on as i followed your chase tips from about this time last year i also remember they where very profitable ..will be doing the same this n.h season ..seasons just really started don’t think you should be doubting yourself in any way …

    harold 23/11/16 10:06 PM Reply


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