TTP Jumps Notes: 22/11/16 (now complete)

Missed one in the 1.40 from first run through…

 

SEDGEFIELD 

1.40

Discoverie (all hncps) WON 5/1 >3/1 (phew!) 

NOTE: Slack 0/3,1 place last 14 days. race conditions look fine for the horse and he is below his last winning chase mark so this rating may be within range. Hope is that he needed the last run. Jockey booking catches the eye.

 

2.15

Four Mile Beach (all hncps) UP (Hughes wins it)

NOTE: Trainer in form, 5/10,8 places last 14 days. This 3 year old could clearly improve at some point, now 0/11 in career, 0/6 over hurdles. No idea how he will handle very soft/heavy ground. One flat run suggests he may be ok and the way he has been getting outpaced would suggest that an emphasis on stamina may be no bad thing. The jockey bookings may be of some interest and the fact Hughes is on another trainer’s horse, which cant happen too often when Jefferson has a runner. Maybe just a ride to give the jockey experience. But, unexposed enough.

 

2.45

Bennys Well (micro going IF HEAVY) UP

NOTE: trainer a bit hit and miss, 1/28,10 places last 14 days. This one will relish conditions – one of the few in here proven in them. The question I think is judging his current form/wellbeing against his price- he has a bit of the ‘Lost Legends’ about him at the moment. He does look out of sorts but has bounced back from PUs to run well/win before. Probably the mos interesting outsider for me. I won’t be having a full point on myself, but may have a saver against my main pick in the free post. He is bottom of the HRB total ratings which is a big negative in any handicap chase really. Market may guide. 0/12,1p over 12/1.

 

3.20

Frobisher Bay (NHF) UP

NOTE: Jefferson again. Unexposed like most types in this race. It could be that he wants really soft ground- the best of his three runs was on soft-and he gets really soft/heavy here. His last run was also after a break. Market may guide but you wouldn’t be shocked were he to put in an improved performance,albeit LTO was rather poor.

Codeshare (NHF) UP

NOTE: Swinbank in form, 2/5,3 places- ran well the last day and a shame he couldn’t get to/passed the leader given his odds. He should be right in the mix if building on that but is priced up accordingly. Moloney up which is a good sign- he is also one of few in here with a recent run under his belt- probably the kind of 5/2, 9/4 shot I shouldn’t be leaving maybe. Then again the going is a question mark and there seem to be a few interesting ones in this race, from the George yard, Crawford etc.

 

LINGFIELD

1.00

Forsmiles (NHF) UP 33/1

NOTE: trainer 0/22,4 places last 30 days. This one ran ok on his first run in July. The trainer has had a few NHF winners in the 16/1-25/1 range not to be put off by the market. Hopefully all 8 stand their ground and at 33s, given the stats, he probably has to be backed EW to some degree I think. He could be useless but he will have NHF winners in this price range and you don’t need many to go in over time.

Groundunderrepair (NHF) UP 2/1

NOTE: trainer 1/16,8 places in last 14 days. A few have been running a bit tamely recently and there has been ‘twitter talk’ about whether his horses are a bit sick at the moment. Has run in a couple of decent bumpers and a repeat of his debut form would be enough to take this you would think, and he is priced up accordingly.

2.35

Steel City (all hncps) UP

NOTE: Mullins again. Horse has won in soft so that shouldn’t be a problem. Now 0/6,0 places in C3 which is more of a question. Albeit I am not sure how strong a c3 this is really and that may be best ignored. A repeat of that Towcester run could put him in the mix and it suggests this distance may be ok. Horse is fairly lightly raced for his age and suggests he has had a few problems. Went close in a novice hurdle after a long break for trainer to suggest he could be readied first time up. Trainer himself is 7/70,18 places handicap hurdlers 60+ days in last 5 years, 1/2,1p at the track and 2/9,4 places in the class. No forlorn hope I don’t think. Trainer form a slight niggle but he is 8s and all in here bar the Mulholland horse have some sort of question to answer- and even he now has a class/ratings rise question.

 

BONUS 

1.40 Sedge – Waiting Patiently (novice hncp chasers) WON 5/2> evens

 

***

MY VIEW: Well none here I could be confident putting you off or myself really. Codeshare and Groundupforrepair look short enough for my liking at the moment but one or both may hack up.The rest all have some sort of question to answer for me but there are also reasons for all why a big run wouldn’t be a total shock. I will leave that there.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • I managed to not look in until mid afternoon today Josh after reading it as complete last evening. Not to worry, one missed winner is not important. I have been following for a couple of weeks now and am very impressed. It’s always been an angle I take a keen interest in and the stats have been doing exactly what it says on the tin. Well worth a tenner a month.

    Like everything I am sure a drawdown will occur at some point through the season, but I have a bank set in place that is more than adequate to deal with this when it occurs.

    Mark 22/11/16 5:22 PM Reply


    • Ah sorry about that Mark. Yep I seem to have a habit of missing odd one every now and then as cards blur into one. That is annoying. On a small plus side thankfully it was ‘only’ 5/1 and not a 14s+ shot say.
      Maybe I should hang off putting ‘complete ‘ until the morning. It was updated by 8.30 pm but can see why you wouldn’t have bothered acer complete sign went up.
      Sorry again.

      Josh 22/11/16 8:55 PM Reply


      • I’m not in the least bit worried Josh, just one of those things. I think you do a great job on here and I certainly wasn’t moaning about missing a winner, plenty where that came from. I will just ensure that I do pop in and look from time to time to be on the safe side.

        Good luck today one and all.

        Mark 23/11/16 3:31 AM Reply


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