TTP Jumps Notes: 21/11/16 (COMPLETE)

Sunday just about wiped it’s face I think. Onto a new week…

 

KEMPTON 

2.35

Lost Legend (micro distance) UP (ran better than has has for a time,before fading quickly again)

NOTE: Jonjo arguably still more miss than hit albeit a  few more have run better in the last week, still 2/61,12 places last 14 days. Conditions are fine for the horse and he is getting well handicapped- mainly as his form seems to have dropped off. Last 5 wins in cheekpieces and they are off again, as they were the last day. Ran the last day as if he wasn’t interested. Or maybe he has just been out of form due to the yard issues/form.

3.10

River of Intrigue (all hncp + hncp h) UP

NOTE: Hendersin in form, 10/30,14 places last 14 days, going well. Horse is unexposed enough and goes back up in trip. Early days for him , too early to say whether he truly stays or not.

 

LUDLOW 

2.15

On The Road (micro distance, may be non runner,ran Sunday) NR

NOTE: Horse and trainer in superb form, Williams starting to fire…7/35,15 places last 14 days. Has been raining plenty in Ludlow I believe and he hadnles soft. Won a shade cosily sunday and may be able to do it again.

Tenant Farmer (micro distance) UP

NOTE: Williams again. This one is fairly lightly raced/low mileage, unexposed still especially as he takes another slight step up in distance. May also come on for that last run.

 

2.50

Noche De Reyes (all hncp + hncp c+ micros- TJC/Class) UP

NOTE: George not as hot form as he was but still running well enough, 2/23,10 places last 14 days. This one has solid form albeit most of it on Good and if this goes soft there has to be a question there for me, which may make 2/1 look short enough. Hasn’t proved he can’t handle it though, rarely races on worse than good/good to soft.

Tornado In Milan (micro TJC) WON 7/2>11/8 

NOTE: Williams again. Solid and consistent form alebit looks a better hurdler. Only 11th chase start. Looks like softer the better for him and he chased home Noche here once before, beaten 6l. Going, if proper soft, may make him get closer. Could come on for last run also

 

3.50

Wolf Trap (all hncp) WON 5/1>9/2

NOTE: Hobbs 9/52,17 p last 14 days, going ok enough. Has been running ok and on his form to date looks like he may also appreciated any cut underfoot.

 

***

My View.

Well it is hard to totally rule any of these out. The day Lost Legend shows some kind of form, before then turning up with headgear on, may be the time to really get stuck in. Out of all of them he looks the most unlikely today but given his mark and old form it is hard to say with complete confidence that he can’t out run those odds. It may be clear after 2 fences he isn’t travelling again and the market may guide. I may not be able to resist a ‘just in case’ 1/2 point in truth albeit I am not expecting a return. But he is 14s.

One The Road and Noche De Reyes are just on the short side for me personally and any Noche backers would have to be concerned about any soft, in the context of his price. He may be fine. I won’t be backing either.

I am happy to trust the stats with the rest of them. Most have unexposed enough profiles and/or look suited to conditions.

**

 

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