FREE DAILY POST: 21/11/16 (COMPLETE)

Thank the lord for the stats. Nice to see Venetia fire in a double figure price winner after a nice drift from his morning price of 6/1. My tipping frame of mind is clearly a bit fragile at the moment – often I would always favour the hardier chaser who was a pace angle also – over an unexposed chaser having second start in a handicap chase having run in a novice handicap chase the time before. I thought 6s was short on one, 11/2 was decent on another. Poor. Especially given how RP ran fresh last season. That thinking around price was off. Anyway I will work through my issues in full public glare and try and improve from an ok base. There is always the Becher chase on the horizon…going for the 33/1 hat-trick on this blog! (i think that may be asking for too much but you never know!)

***

TIPS

None. No 3m+ handicap chases of interest for me.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Venetia Williams Chasers

2.35 Kempton – Uhlan Bute – UR (horrid,going to hose up,got in close 2 out) 

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– LIVE TES

After a ‘quiet star’ (ie not very good) these are starting to fire a bit now, or at least are finding a few nice price winners…

Hurdle

2.15 Lud – On The Road (EW won LTO) NR

3.40 Kempt- Midtech Valentine (improve for run/fresh) WON 4/1 

Chase

2.35 Kempton – Uhlan Bute (V Williams 60+ days) UR

 

Bonus…

I have a NTD ‘unexposed’ chaser angle i keep track of, 17/51,26 places since 2013-, +66 points. 4/6 in 2016. Very micro.

1.40 Ludlow- Better Days – UP

 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

1.40 Ludlow – PHANGIO 6/1(UP travelled well but did look like ground took its toll. May not be any good around for a while now but will win some weak chases again come spring/summer!)Money came for winner and no shock result there,handled soft,plenty in hand.  I will put the mockers on him here by mentioning him in this section- this one won for the TTP stats at 12/1 the last day, relishing the step up in trip in a race that fell apart due to non runners. I think he beat a non stayer there but the way he jumped and travelled may take him a long way in this. Given he is one of a few with any recent chase form of note on offer, i found 6s a bit big. A couple of ‘ways in’ really – i noticed Sheppard is 8/26,13 places with his last time out winners in the last 2 years, +19 points profit. Decent. There is also a pace angle- they may try and make all again, or in any case be up there. His slick jumping (famous last words) may see him be able to dominate this. There is a concern about the going, if it is soft (looks likely) but nothing else in here is thoroughly proven on it – bar Vice Et Vertu (Brennan riding for Daly,he is getting about these days,interesting!-his would have a chance if leaving behind his chase form when last seen and his mark has dropped plenty) and Kapricorne (who could go well here but is now 0/11 over fences and questions are mounting,albeit getting well handicapped and conditions fine-his jumping always been a bit of a concern over large obstacles) There are a couple of runs in ireland in the mud which suggest it is too early to categorically say he is a good ground horse only. Amber Gambler is the other interesting one- really could be anything and could have a tonne in hand here. He is a previous point winner and is the ‘sexy’/interesting profile in this I suppose. So, I suppose it looks an open enough race but one full of intrigue. Phangio may not be good enough but he is fit, in form, we know he can win over fences, and he will be in the right place. That may count for plenty in a race where everything else does have more questions than him to answer for me….  Phangio, Vice and Amber to be battling it out maybe.

Chelmsford…

A ‘bonus’ qualifier from the TTP AW Reports..

4.00 – Bowson Fred – UP 5/1 15/2… qualifies on a certain stat. This one was 10s last night and there is plenty to like about his chance I think- he has the class for this, is 2/6 on the AW, has had a break- won after 60+ days off before, Easterby is in’form and he could get a toe into the race from his stablemate. He will be up there in the right place. Looks interesting. I think he may have been tipped by Gary Priestley also.

 

That will be all for today.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

16 Comments

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  • “starting to fire a bit” I can’t fault your confidence Josh! I have followed these from the start and am definitely down somewhat. My records are not super accurate but if allowing a tolerance for various prices I would say about 10 pts down. That can obviously be turned around easily by April ( hope so 🙂 ). Although they’re clearly not performing in comparison to the research you did for previous years. Time will tell!!

    Jim

    Jim 20/11/16 6:19 PM Reply


    • Yep that was more a reflection that they are +15 points or so last two days (RP 10s sp) 13/8 sp and Clyne 9/2 SP x 2 angles. Minus a few losers . I will update results again but those last two days were needed. They were 19 points down or so when I last updated them. As you know they were a new approach to this year,some different thinking etc . We shall see. It is a live test. And will have usual highs and lows as with any such approach like that. Time will tell. Hope you are betting too much until they prove themselves : ) Nothing is performing as well as my TTP stats at moment. Rather happy with thone so far. Hopefully this other portfolio can step up to the mark also.

      Josh 20/11/16 6:32 PM Reply


      • Yeh this weekend was a godsend. Was beginning to get a tad concerned as plan was to increase stakes based on performance. So no stakes are no very big at the mo (started £2 win only, being cautious and still there). Hope to be in profit come xmas then can ramp up a bit 🙂

        Jim 20/11/16 7:17 PM Reply


  • Paddy Watch

    Paddy has just the one qualifier in Owen Na View at 10/3,this is a no bet race for me but in the interest of completness i will put it in as a 1/2pt win

    Rnning Total +12.75

    gearoid180468 20/11/16 8:28 PM Reply


  • I am expecting HY
    Probably best bet so far this NH season
    365 & BV 10/1

    3:40 Kempton UN PROPHETE
    Charlie Deutsch3
    Trainer Venetia Williams
    Owner John Timpson

    DATE RACE CONDITIONS WGT RACE OUTCOME JOCKEY OR TS RPR 05Apr16 Nab 17Sft C5HcH 3K 11-12 3/7 (7¼L Wolftrap 10-10) 100/30 Alain Cawley 105 50 105 11Mar16 San 16Hy C4HcH 3K 11-7 3/8 (6L Loves Destination 10-6) 7/2F Mr J Sole 105 96 103 03Feb16 Lud 16Sft C4HcH 3K 10-9 5/15 (6¼L Hear The Chimes 10-12) 5/1 Miss L M Turner 105 93 107 14Jan16 Cat 15.5Sft C4NvH 3K 11-5 2/13 (11L William Of Orange 11-5) 20/1 Aidan Coleman — 77 98 23Nov15 Lud 16GS C4MdH 3K 11-0 10/14 (35L Banyu 11-0) 16/1 Liam Treadwell — 45 77

    Clavis 21/11/16 12:02 AM Reply


  • Oh dear my hrb put last shot up as a qualifier and put the wheel barrow on it! I only just realized that was an error lol altho I went back through last shots record and took note the it has won at ludlow on a quick return before, hopefully it will be a non runner tho ha ha

    James b 21/11/16 12:14 AM Reply


  • Before I forget, the mcPherson system I’ve got written down is this –
    Class 2-3-4
    Age 6-11
    Odds 3.5-41
    Class move- same up 1/2
    H-run (90 days) 0-1
    Handicaps
    October-march

    Another one of Josh’s systems that could be worth following again is-
    Miss Suzy Smith
    Handicaps
    Chase/hurdle
    17s or less
    H-run (90 days) 0-1

    Had a nice one go in a few days back at good odds.

    I also have one that produced the goods last December that you guys might want to check out-
    Venitia Williams
    December
    Chase
    20s or less
    Last run within 25 days.

    Hard to say how her late starting season will affect that system tho?

    James b 21/11/16 2:01 AM Reply


    • Cheers James, a bit there for me to get stuck ‘back into’ in my HRB account. I will have a look at those ones, and that Smith one again- not sure if I still have that saved or not.

      Venetia… I am tempted to run this probably up to Xmas, will certainly post ‘qualifiers’ and keep an eye on them- get impression they were 2-3 weeks behind where they normally would be. I will look at that December one. She is profitable on the fact of it within my system but can be improved with digging, and your angle may be the one.

      Cheers

      Josh 21/11/16 9:39 AM Reply


      • thinking that through …. given that the VW November system is for those that have not had 1 run(so,0 or 2+) within 90 days, then presumably the record of those having had 1 run is poor in November. Think there is some logic to that as her horses seem best fresh.Surely then within December most are likely to have had 1 run within 25 days ??? Systems are great but i like to attach some logic and reasoning to them. Cheers

        jamesm 21/11/16 12:32 PM Reply


        • Yep- well my logic with the 1 run thing is that I think most are trained to be 100% to win first time up- and they simply do not come on for the run at all- and therefore vulnerable NTO . Some clearly come on for it, or run up a sequence, or need a couple of runs- hence the 2+. So, there is logic for ignoring the 1 run and the stats are woeful, with my more simple approach.
          I will look at december but imagine some may have had more than 1 run sometimes, esp those that may have run in October (none this year I don’ think) or raced in first couple weeks Nov, race again within 2-3 weeks, and again latter half of December say. I will have a look and see for December. All rules need some logic really and I am sure we can think of something!

          Josh 21/11/16 12:38 PM Reply


  • Have two in the Lud. 1:40 from a couple of decent performing angles;

    Better Days 8/1 – from a similar angle to Josh’s, but appears to be on the drift.

    Amber Gambler 4/1 – Been running over the minimum distances in hurdles, but has winning form in points over 3m so no surprised it is being backed today off a low mark.

    Already backed both before BD’s drift, but we’ll see.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 21/11/16 10:20 AM Reply


    • Good luck Chris, looks a decent/interesting race actually. Should be more to come from William’s horse and Dalys this year- and both could have very lenient marks here. But, they do need to do it in public over fences. Both trainer’s can ready them so fitness shouldn’t be a concern. Yea twisters is on the drift – market seems to be speaking for Dalys at the moment. GL.

      Josh 21/11/16 10:25 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Thanks for the TTP results update. It’s certainly got off to a flyer. I totally appreciate the theory that it may well run out of steam or fortunes may take a turn but is there any evidence to suggest that the profiles are better for the first half of the season than the second?

    cheers

    Ben

    921389 21/11/16 3:26 PM Reply


    • Hi Ben,
      At the moment there isn’t much long term evidence for them in live play. The ‘stats are the stats’ so to speak – but I just sold the guide as is last season (no daily posts etc – and there were too many angles- 3 combos for a lot of the micro angles as an example) I realised a couple of months in that is was throwing up too many horses which made it a bit of a drag- and there have been a few days so far these season that have been a bit overwhelming. I knew in general they worked well enough albeit changed the micro angles a bit- a few different ones.
      In part that is why I have tried to stress caution – there is no logical reason why they should drop off in latter half of year and I think the trainer form/cycles is more important.
      That may well be the case- come end of April we will have a full picture, which in truth we/I haven’t had before. It is also why the Members Club is around £10 per month as I thought that was fair for what is in truth something I haven’t done before- in terms of the daily posts, tracking results fully etc. Allows followers not to risk too much money and jump ship if it was clear it was failing!! Thankfully it hasn’t.

      +100 points in around 8 weeks suggests we are on the right path! Part of me would have taken that profit for the whole season in truth, that would have been a decent return.

      So, in short- I don’t know. But, we will all find out soon enough! Logically I don’t think it should.
      Josh

      Josh 21/11/16 3:36 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh,

        I guess like all these things they will have a cold spell (no doubt after you’ve just done a marketing push!) but as you say at least there is a bit in the bank to help against that – better than chasing points.

        921389 21/11/16 3:40 PM Reply


        • yep – I need to update results for end week 8 but I am sure they were operating around the 17% win strike rate mark if backing the lot – they are beating the market so well/average odds very good hence the decent profit levels- but win strike rates around that level indicate that per 1000 bets you will hit losing runs of 35-45 I think from memory- that can happen once, or couple times etc. We haven’t had a losing week really as yet- there will be one at some point, a -20 point week say. Aim is to try and avoid a few losers while backing all the winners- I need to work on that! but am just ahead I think from those losers I have left versus odd winner I left. But, they need to work as a system- backing them all without looking at the horse. That is how they should be judged I think. Members can obviously judge themselves the value they have to their own punting/approach etc.
          Chasing points is never good- important to start small stakes, build up as bank/confidence grows etc. TTP isn’t going anywhere!
          Josh

          Josh 21/11/16 3:52 PM Reply


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