TTP Jumps Notes: SAT 19/11/16 (COMPLETE)

 

ASCOT

1.30

Lifeboat Mona (all hncp)

NOTE: Nicholls in form. This one unexposed making handicap debut. Conditions look fine.

3.15

Cold March (all hncp, Micro going IF soft, age+season runs+90 days)

NOTE: Williams starting to hit form, 2/10,4 places last 14 days. Horse fairly unexposed still and won on seasonal reappearance at the track last year.

Sire De Grugy (hncp c)

NOTE: Moore only 2/31,6 places last 14 days. Horse hacked up last time he was in a handicap albeit may have regressed a tad since then. Has the ability to win this but open to attack from anything unexposed.

 

3.50

Barbrook Star (NHF)

Cigarisi (NHF)

NOTE: both Hobbs, 5/44,13 places last 14 days, a bit hot and cold. Jockey bookings suggest the latter newcomer is more fancied but the former could come on for first run. Clearly both unexposed and not much to go on.

 

HAYDOCK 

12.10

Clyne (hncp h)

NOTE: Williams 6/34,14 places last 14 days, going ok, without being ‘in form’ as such. Heavy ground is no problem for this one, just whether he may need the run – he came on for it last season. Unexposed and should be more to come. Trainer’s record with handicap hurdlers after a break is solid enough and 2/5 at the track, 60+ days.

1.15

Rigadin De Beauchene (micro class + 90 days)

NOTE: Williams again. This admirably old horse stays well and relishes heavy. I have a slight niggle about his age and the weight he has on his back here,and whether he can carry it. But other than that he looks solid enough at 5s.

Voyage A New York (micro going IF SOFT, offocially soft ‘heavy in places’ – one of those annoying ones really! Wont count at present and can only think ground will get worse- more rain forecast, looks heavy already to my ‘eye’) Unlikely to officially qualify, was officially heavy come end of race time.

 

2.25

Yala Enki (micro 90 days)

NOTE: Williams again. Could be more to come this year and hadles soft well, untried on heavy but given the yard/how trained etc you would think it will be fine. He will be right up with the pace and could possibly get an easy lead here, albeit couple of others who could be up there. Certainly hard to say he can’t get involved.

 

3.35

Straidnahanna (micro: runs this season)

De Vous A Moi (micro: runs this season)

NOTE: both Sue Smith, only 2/26,12 places last 14 days. Going ok and plenty placing. Straid- he is now 0/4,0 places in C2 and does now have a class question. 0/3,1 place 60+ day break alebit went close enough on seasonal reappearance last year. De Vous A Moi- flat bred all form over 20f, takes step up in trip here. No idea if will stay, hard to know until they try- albeit you would have some doubts esp in this testing ground. Jockey booking suggest Straid is more fancied.

Saroque (micro horse runs 90 days)

NOTE: Williams again. Conditions look fine for this one. Won on seasonal reappearance last year in a deep enough race at Exeter, only 2lb above that mark. Could get an easy lead/try and nake all here.

 

HUNTINGDON 

2.15

Allow Dallow (all hncps + micro ,runs this season)

NOTE: Jono 2/62,11 places last 14 days- blimey- but there have been some signs recently including at Cheltenham and he had one go well at Ascot after a break on Thursday. He is a course winner and seems to stay this far. Has won after a break of 60+ days over fences and is lightly raced enough.

 

Gambol (hncp c)

NOTE: Williams 2/174 places last 14 days. 0/4,0 places over fences to date- has not looked a natural chaser but he is unexposed in this sphere at least.

 

2.50

Kendari King (micro going IF soft, currently good to soft) (no rain forecast, unlikely to qualify officially)

 

***

My View:

Well not too much to say here this time- there are not any jumping out at me that I would be 100% confident about leaving, esp as some in the 8/1+ range where there could be some doubts. Lifeboat Moana is a bit short for me personally at the moment.

You would be concerned if Sire De Grugy has the legs to take on some of these but not impossible. I have some doubts about Rigadin De Beauchene and the two Sue Smith Chasers. Also Gambol has a few questions. Those are the ones I would be least confident about – but at same time wouldn’t be surprised if any won. There could be more to come from both Sue Smiths this year and her 20f chaser may relish the step up in trip, he may not.

On the flip side to that I suppose Cold March/Clyne/Yala Enki/Saroque/Allow Dallow would be the ones I am more confident on. And Hobbs unraced one could be anything.

***

Good Luck however you play them all. Weekends have done well so far, let’s hope this Saturday can find a few winners and turn a profit.

 

***

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

6 Comments

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  • 1.15 Haydock tomorrow of tipping interest tomorrow, i assume Josh?

    Sun Cloud jumps out at me, despite bombing out on last show over hurdles. Might be my latest cliff horse

    aallen 18/11/16 3:53 PM Reply


    • Yep – we all need a cliff horse Aallen!
      That ground is heavy- and that is Haydock Heavy – I really worry about the weight for both those two at the top- an almighty effort for either to win for me carrying that around here 3m4f+ all of Rigadin’s wins over staying trips have come with light weights. Sun Cloud- he is usually held up as well, that is a concern as it could be very hard to make up ground in this mud- will sap energy. But his price is ok.

      I think I will be tipping Askamore darsi at 16s- that looks massive to me- Stays 26f, outpaced the last twice, his first run of season was interesting – that price allows a punt that he may have been crying out for this trip on this ground- may just keep galloping – and he has a light weight, and the last twice has raced prominently enough. Also comes here fit. I won’t be able to resist. May just leave it at him but will go through them all again!

      Josh 18/11/16 4:06 PM Reply


    • Changed my mind in the end at the price! I suspect those hurdle runs were to set him up for this- ground maybe too lively the last day and only faded late- he is just a one pace plodder- ideal conditions for that here. Convinced myself he can carry the weight and hold up horses do well here in these race types. GL

      Josh 18/11/16 5:55 PM Reply


      • good stuff, here’s to a happy mud-slinging Saturday!

        hopefully a good one on the punting side of things too

        aallen 18/11/16 9:10 PM Reply


    • I am on Sun Cloud but have been in shocking form this week after a mega run! Sorry

      martin colwell 19/11/16 11:53 AM Reply


  • Affaire D’Honneur 2.25 Haydock is interesting Josh as he gets in with no weight here on a day where with bottomless ground that has got to be major plus. Trainer and jockey course stats are pretty good also and this horse ran a cracking race at Newbury in February on heavy staying on well over 2 miles. Disappointed last time at Fontwell so cheek pieces on now and upped in trip might signal a decent run is expected as trainer distance moves are a positive.
    Tom

    Tom 19/11/16 8:55 AM Reply


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