Well what a sh*t/poor day that was. Just awful. I have had two tips win this month but the rest have been awful, not even anything to cheer jumping the last. Hopefully some deep mud and a 3m4f trip can see me in better light on Saturday…
Sun Cloud – 1 point win – 8/1 (BV/PP/WH/BetfairS) 7/1 (other)
Askamore Darsi – 1 point win – 20/1 (coral/betway) 18/1 (BV) 16/1 (general)
Sun Cloud… well this race looks likely to be run in a right old slog I think- it looks testing at the moment and there could be a bit more rain. Either way I don’t think there will be a hiding place and my mind has changed on this one having pondered it- I was put off by his big weight- and that may weigh him down, but he has carried big weights in chases to win- not over this far but what with him being a micro system below also, and his price, I decided to go with him. I was also concerned by the fact he may be held up out the back and it could be hard to make up ground- but, the geegeez pace map shows me that hold up horses have a great record in these types of race conditions here. I also think this may have been the plan having had two pipe openers over hurdles on lively enough ground.
This one relishes heavy and he stays further. He is also fit. He will just keep galloping. He may be too slow but Hughes is a master as conserving energy for one final push over the last few. He will creep into it steadily and I should get a good run for my money with any luck. The weight may tell in the end but he is a solid class 3 chaser who is now below his last winning mark. He has placed at the track in soft also. Oh and his trainer continues in cracking form, 5/12,8 places the last 14 days and his jockey couldn’t be in better form.
If I wasn’t in such a slump and had more to play with I would be throwing 1.5 points at the pair. I have no right to be bullish given the slumber but I really like these two,at the prices.
Well I put him in the tracker after his opening run of the season at Carlisle, having watched him close and had a look back through his form… ‘could be interesting in a right old slog, 3m4+ , heavy ground. Haydock??‘
Given those were my notes a few months ago, and given the race he lines up here- I really do have to have a go, especially at this price. It seems rather big to my eyes. He has a light weight, is in fair enough form, is fit and looks like he is crying out for a step up to this kind of trip. He has solid form over 26f, especially that race at Donny last season (where coincidentally he stuffed a fit Mysteree who lines up here at 5/1) which was run in soft/heavy in placed. He won at Market Rasen (maybe fortunately) in heavy, but it proved he handled it. All this one does is stay it seems. The ground may have been too lively the last day but he kept on, having raced wide for most of the way. He also races prominently so I have all bases covered. He will be up there with Venetia’s horse I suspect. He may not be good enough, it may transpire he doesn’t stay – but he is game and he does just keep responding. I think he will just keep grinding away up this straight and with his weight will keep going. He also has time on his side being aged 7 but has enough experience for a slog like this. Very excited to see him run- much like Fox Appeal- it will make a poor run all the more painful! The yard could be in better form but that is built into his price. Hopefully they go a pace here where he just lobs along.
What Are The Dangers…
Well Rigadin De Beauchene clearly is- conditions no problem for him. I found it of some interest that all of his staying chase wins have been won when carrying a light weght, 10-11 or less. He goes fine after a break but is on a high mark and the weight concerns me- not least as evidence is scarce that he can carry it, esp over a trip like this. I think it is a big ask and he is ‘only’ 5/1, I wont be shocked were he to do it though. He was also in poor form when last seen. I won’t put you off him if you like him but a couple of niggles there at his price. He isn’t getting any younger either.
Fill The Power looks out of sorts, too poor LTO for me, and this the second run after along break. I can’t have Barafundle age 12 and on seasonal reappearance. Not in these conditions. Albeit he is lightly raced for his age. Wood Yer looks a C4 horse, albeit has a light weight – but again hasn’t had a run. He knows how to win and tries this trip for the first time. An unknown. Chase The Spud was a bit poor LTO but may have needed it and goes for a team in top form. Stamina beyond 24f an unknown and he has been better Rh to date, 0/6,2p LH.
Gonalston Cloud- guessing as to fitness again- when he won at Carlisle after ‘a break’ I am sure he had been pointing from memory and actually came into that in really good form. He could still have progress in him but fitness, ground/distance are all a bit unknown. In that context, in a race like this- happy to leave. Howaboutit was too poor LTO when I fancied him and has questions over stamina and heavy ground. Voyage of New York doesn’t look good enough to me, may not stay and in any case ran a shocker the last day. Too poor.
I think that leaves Mystteree and the early money seems to be for him- he has finished behind Askamore Darsi before, hasn’t had a run, heavy an unknown as is stamina to a point – plodding on in the Eider chase- may suggest he stays. Jumping can be iffy also. 5s seems short enough.
So I have gone with two who I know will be fit , who I know handle heavy – one stays further, one I think will relish the step up in this ground. I have pace at the front and a hold up horse out the back. A top weight, a bottom weight. They are both hardy/experienced yet not overly exposed/old.
At their prices I was more than happy to have a dart. I couldn’t back much else in here, bar Venetia’s maybe.
NO MORE TIPS. I can hear the relief.
3.35 – I may just go with the VW system. In truth you could make some sort of case for most of them in here and I have no strong views. A few have fitness questions etc/well being questions.
3.35 Haydock..The Betfair Chase- well not a tipping race for me. My heart wants one of the top two to win and I hope I can cheer them on. I have 1/2 point on Seeyouatmidnight for interest at 7s- mainly as I am going to the races and will want to have backed something! Not a race I would be dogmatic about, betting wise. Some guidance in the poll maybe…
V Williams Chasers (16/1< guide)
1.15 Hayd – Rigadin De Beauchene
3.15 Ascot- Cold March
3.35 Ascot – Saroque
Tom George Chasers
12.55 Ascot – Singlefarmpayment
3.15 Ascot – Some Buckle
Saturday Trainer/Jockey Combo (14/1<)
3.00 Hayd – Menorah
3.35 Hayd – Three Faces West
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio- LIVE TEST
Clyne x2 angles / Verni (improve for run/fresh)
Rigadin De Beauchene (VW 60+ days)
Sun Cloud (trainer top weights)
Results from the poll…
Betfair Chase - Who are we backing?
- Cue Card (11%, 27 Votes)
- Coneygree (25%, 64 Votes)
- Irish Cavalier (11%, 27 Votes)
- Seeyouatmidnight (35%, 89 Votes)
- Silviniaco Conti (7%, 17 Votes)
- 'one of the outsiders' (2%, 5 Votes)
- None. I will just watch and cheer... (9%, 22 Votes)
Total Voters: 251
That is all for Saturday.
Good Luck with your bets. Josh