TTP: Jumps Notes 18/11/16 (COMPLETE)

NOTE:

New monthly research article, with a few Irish trainer angles.. HERE>>>

 

 

Qualifiers on their way…

HAYDOCK- I don’t believe there are any.

 

***

ASCOT 

2.45

The Clock Leary (all hncps+micro runs this season/90 days) UP

NOTE: trainer 1/9,4 places last 14 days I think not including wincanton winner. She is starting to fire and this one qualifies on some other angles i have for her as on free post. He is well handicapped on old form albeit you need to take a leap of faith and put a line through last season. Not sure what went wrong there. He is a course winner over 19f and has a chance to my eye, on his best form. 1/8 over fences there should be more to come at some point.

Present Man (all hncps + hncp c) WON 5/2>9/2 

NOTE: Nicholls in very good form still, 13/46,20 places last 14 days. Horse is unexposed and I fancied him for the Badger Ales LTO where I hoped they would let him bowl along in front but held him up (maybe to get the trip) but there was no pace, he pulled, and unseated rider early, maybe unsighted or going too slow. Is a question over cut in the going but only that. Looks interesting enough,

Cadoudoff (hncp c) UP

NOTE: trainer 3/25,8 places last 14 days. Going ok albeit not as hot as he was. Horse is unexposed enough over fences, 1/7 . More to come at some point maybe. A bit of a concern that he unseated two starts ago and  fell LTO. This is a stiff enough jumping test.

 

3.20

Ready Token (hncp c) UP

NOTE: Longsdon again as above. Conditions look fine for the horse. The PU LTO is a concern. This is a deeper race than he usually contests and that C3 he won a couple of starts ago was weak enough, and he was able to dominate from the front. But, if he runs to his best he may go ok. Open to attack from anything open to progress/more in hand.

 

Leo Luna (hncp c) UP

NOTE: Moore 4/32,8 places last 14 days, so a bit hit and miss. Not firing on all cylinders it seems. Horse is 0/5,1 place 60+ days break and now 0/9,1 place going RH. Looks better LH and was in poor form when last seen. Some questions I think but is 14/1

 

3.55

Cyrname (all hncps + micro class) UP

NOTE: Nicholls again. Unexposed, know very little about him. Could be anything. Priced up accordingly it seems, bookies taking no chances.

Draytonian (hncp h) 3rd

NOTE: Hobbs 5/34, 11 places last 14 days, again not as hot as they were but going OK. Rather inconsistent last year and could want it softer on basis of that form- but another who is lightly enough raced and there should be more to come this season. Hard to dismiss.

 

FFOS LAS 

2.55

Red Devils Lad (all hncp+hncp h+micro 90 days) 2nd HEAD, 7/1>11/4

NOTE: Curtis in form, 4.16,5 places. A question of how much of this one’s poor form last year you put down to the stable. He is unexposed enough over hurdles and if they want to i think they could get an easy lead here. He stays well and loves the mud. I think he looks interesting at around 7/1- IF they have him back to something like his best he coud win this well for me. Or he has issues and will fade out! Price allows a chance for me. Trusting the stats.

 

4.05

Tacenda (NHF) 3rd 5/1

NOTE: trainer 1/11 in last 14  days. Not much to say really. One where you trust the stats. I think the trainer likes this one…(I think Matt B- geegeez.co.uk, who has horses in the yard/sponsors yard…said in some recent post on his blog that this one is very well regarded by the yard. In any case given the stats she is one to back – hopefully not too short. But I would get on early if you are going in I think. They can be well backed)

 

***

My View…

Well I will ignore the 3.20 for the moment…

But I won’t be saying anything to put you off the others! All look to have profiles/stats/trainer form that would give them a chance.

In the 2.45 at this stage I will be leaving Cadoudoff. I will be quite surprised if one of the other two or Fox Appeal doesn’t win this. I have had a good bet on Fox Appeal (no excuses here) with a saver of sorts, but still a decent bet, on VWs horse. I think Present Man could take this but was happy to leave him at 5/2. That is short enough for me. There is a bit of pace in here, I don’t think he will be able to lead, and a slight ground niggle. But unexposed. I don’t think anything in here is good enough to beat Fox Appeal IF he runs his race. But everything looks so perfect it is probably too good to be true!

3.55- not much to say there. At around 3/1, 11/4 both may be short enough for me we shall see. Clearly both have a chance and it will be an interesting watch. It may not be the deepest of races.

I have backed both at FFos Las to my usual TTP 1 point (£10) albeit I think I could convince myself to have a bit more. Along with The Clock Leary those two at Ffos Las are the ones I am most excited to watch from these qualifiers I think, esp at the prices.

3.20 – I think I will be leaving both here having had a look at them. Leo Luna- has negatives against going RH (0/4,0p chasing,0/10,1p career) and is 0/4,0p 121-365 days off, and 0/4,0p 12+ runners over fences. Enough there for me to leave I think. Ready Token- is now on a career high mark and this is the highest class he has raced in, a better C3 than one he won. There is also that PU LTO. He will try and lead no doubt but a couple of niggles there for me at this stage.

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4 Comments

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  • Have pulled together some stats/trend for a couple of Haydock races for those of you who like such things…

    http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/2016/11/18/haydock-sat-trendsstats/

    Josh 18/11/16 10:56 AM Reply


  • Maybe I am reading your TTP guide wrongly, but is not Island Heights a potential
    micro angle- going qualifier for Lucinda Russell in 2.00 at Haydock ?

    The last time that I checked, the going was being described as Soft ( Heavy in places).

    stumac 18/11/16 12:40 PM Reply


    • Hmmm… yep I read the heavy in places as part of official going – I maybe should have highlighted him albeit it was officially never ‘just soft’ when I read it when posting… unless that is officially just soft!??
      BUT- the going, and the distance ones when they move them around, can be on the boundary… he won’t be counted if he wins, which he may well do! Swinbanks wouldn’t have counted yesterday as officially good to soft when I updated my view etc in morning, but he very nearly won- and wouldn’t have been counted.
      Those stats are there to interpret to a point, esp with going when between two, and distance when a matter of 100 yards etc.

      GL if you play.

      Josh 18/11/16 12:56 PM Reply


      • having looked at him… he handles heavy no problem, so on that front not to worry. Looks heavy there to my eye. He also has a fitness edge over a lot of these. Can see why he is 4s! Looks solid.

        Josh 18/11/16 1:00 PM Reply


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