FREE DAILY POST: 17/11/16 (COMPLETE)

 

A bad day for my 3m+ chase tips and a bad day for the bottom end of the HorseRaceBase ratings. Back to the drawing board with my approach to those it seems! The 5 at the bottom found the top 3. And they did influence me to some extent albeit I am not sure if I would have found the winner if I ignored them…

But, it was a good day for TTP Jumps stats backers/Members… 11 bets / 3 winns – 20/1, 6,10/1… + 28 points profit on the day if you had 1 point on them all. Maybe the best day they have had yet…

Oh and it was nice to see Venetia have a chase winner. Hopefully a few more to come..

 

TIPS

NONE.

Quick reflection…The winner on Wednesday, 50/1>33/1… Had the form to win that for sure, (C4 chase record decent) question was about his well being and frame of mind. He folded tamely very early the last day, before any fitness qs may have come into it for me. But, in that context putting more emphasis on 1st time Blinkers may have been useful, and tongue tie on for first time in a while (second time) – They also changes tactics- which is harder to predict. But he seemed to love being booted out in front. I have said it before actually – but 1st time blinkers ‘can’ accompany a change of tactics. Something to ponder. Plenty of reasons why that wasn’t a total shock – just very hard to predict before the race, albeit a few clues I suppose!

It is always important to ask ‘who are the unexposed ones’ and ‘what ones are doing something different’ from last run. Headgear/tt was the way in with him I think. And you can take plenty of chances with horses at that price. But, my pin wasn’t anywhere near him – and that is an area to improve on. I think his HRB rating, that big P LTO and his Age put me off a bit to quick

Still it had a feel of it being a very open race. My two didn’t do too much sadly. Again. But, that’s how it goes. We move on.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– live test

Reminder these angles (the ‘portfolio) are new this year and are untested/unproven in live play. They will hopefully work long term but bar the research I have no evidence of that and sometimes history is not repeated. They have found winners but are a few points down at the moment. You get to see it all, warts and all, as the season progresses. 

Hurdle

1.15 Mount Russel UP/ Demographic WON 9/4 

Chase

2.15 Winc- Istimraar- UP

***

These two are more proven…

V Williams Chase

2.50 Winc – Burtons Well – NR

 

Tom George Chase

2.50 Winc – Smoking Jacket – UP

 

***

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

Not much jumping out so I will pull an interesting one out from my TTP stats, mentioned in comments below also…

3.10 Market R – Amiral Collonges(PU- never travelled a yard,line through that run- not sure what was up but never looked happy- typical that the TTP stats found 2 winners and I would give you neither)  was 9/2, now 10/3 general.. I won’t ‘reveal’ the trainer stats, albeit this trainer does well here in general and even more so in this class- it says something about the strength of the other ‘Market Rasen General Handicap’ trainers that this one isn’t on the list – but backing all of their handicappers here is no bad thing… 7/24,12 places ALL runners here last 5 years. Anyway this one is unexposed as a chaser and should be fit after his seasonal opener over hurdles LTO. He stays and there should be more to come at some point. He looked interesting enough at his price. The Smith horse is interesting and will try and make all. This trainer’s horse’s run at this track to win, so hopefully PM doesn’t hold him up too far off the front runner- as he will have to make up ground at some point and we know what can happen then- crunch.

That will do for today…

 

POLL…

The Betfair Chase… who are we betting on? I have no strong views on this race and won’t be tipping in it I don’t think. I would be delighted if either of Coneygree or Cue Card won but I can see why you may want to take them on at the prices. If I do have an interest bet it may be on Seeyouatmidnight but I would be interested if you have any thoughts. You may think one of top two is a good price etc…

Betfair Chase - Who are we backing?

  • Cue Card (11%, 27 Votes)
  • Coneygree (25%, 64 Votes)
  • Irish Cavalier (11%, 27 Votes)
  • Seeyouatmidnight (35%, 89 Votes)
  • Silviniaco Conti (7%, 17 Votes)
  • 'one of the outsiders' (2%, 5 Votes)
  • None. I will just watch and cheer... (9%, 22 Votes)

Total Voters: 251

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

43 Comments

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  • Paddy Watch Day 5

    Paddy had a winner today but wasn’t a value selection,Has 2 rides at Market Rasen tomorrow,bit more confident as both perform well at track

    1.30 Wheres Cherry 1pt win 5/1 generally
    3.45 Infinite Sun 1pt win 9/1 Betvic
    Running Total +1.75
    S/R 1/5
    O brien has Man From Seville in 2.35 but ridden by Paul Moloney,no reason why Paddy wouldn’t ride this one apart from the fact he was on board lto.might be that trainer wants to give him a gentle introduction to fences

    gearoid180468 16/11/16 8:21 PM Reply


    • Gearoid Moloney rides for the Rucker’s Man From Seville is there horse.

      owen47 16/11/16 9:35 PM Reply


    • Well that was fun!

      Josh 17/11/16 3:52 PM Reply


  • boom! And Venetia’s back in action. What an emphatic win it was as well from Azert

    Ali 16/11/16 8:48 PM Reply


  • I’ve not seen much for Thursday. Dragon King ran a good race LTO and goes off at 9/1 at present. Cheek pieces may be required.

    martin colwell 16/11/16 10:13 PM Reply


  • 1:30 M/Rasen – Where’s Cherry 7/1 – Raced keenly last time so with drop in trip hoping this can be a Brennan front runner.

    1:45 Wind – Hint of Mint 6/1 – Has dropped 17 lb and down in grade, so could be interesting if new trainer has worked him out.

    3:25 Winc – Alpine Secret 8/1 – 8th in a decent bumper in March, the trainer appeared to be confident of winning a bumper first run this season, but going straight over hurdles.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 16/11/16 10:38 PM Reply


  • WINCANTON 1.45
    Honey Pound
    25/1 Betfair Sports Book
    Jockey knows the horse
    Has won 1st time out
    Ground suits, G (G-S)
    Has won 18.5 furlongs but never raced 20 furlongs
    Weight only 10.6 (lowest weight ever)
    3 Wins, 9 Places, /26 runs
    Jockey: Alan Johns (3lb claimer)
    Tim Vaughan, trainer
    HURDLE: Wins 177, Places 1440, 12%, ( 2nd 189, 3rd161, 4th142,)
    Win total £650,704.58, Total hurdle winnings £1,005,373.95
    A reasonable EW bet
    Josh will inform

    Clavis 16/11/16 11:30 PM Reply


    • yep suppose interesting at a price and is one of a handful of TTP picks in this race. I have decided to leave her- which at the price makes me nervous- could place but the fitness is a Q, more so stamina and even more so class, now 0/11 C3 I believe. She is also in a race packed full of unexposed ones from decent yards and surely one of Nicholls/Fry/Greatrex/Tizzard is winning this -5 horses between them- cant be many races where all those would be represented and one not taking home the pot! All of theres have much more potential than the Vaughan horses. Could leave me with egg on face!

      Josh 17/11/16 10:21 AM Reply


  • James Evans chaser at the Market alert!

    Incredible strike here and profit rate

    3.10 Mkr – Amiral Collonges 9/2
    Impressive winner of a deep novice hurdle at Ascot last year. Now goes chasing. Good bet going by the numbers. Not sure we should take the fav on, but his form may be of no value since it may have just been a really weak Hexham affair.

    AC had a good pipe-opener in a strong hurdle race and jumped the timber in a style suggesting he has already been schooled over fences.

    It all points towards a bet for me

    Ali 17/11/16 12:06 AM Reply


    • yep his overall stats here very good, and even more so in this class as per TTP. Was a bet for sure for me at 9/2, 4/1. GL

      Josh 17/11/16 10:21 AM Reply


      • Oh dear. Me posting horses up seems to ‘bock’ them

        I take partial responsibility

        Ali 17/11/16 3:19 PM Reply


        • Ha, don’t worry about it- you can take those ones- simply never at the races- not sure if a niggle, or mentally just didnt want to know- may have had bad trip to the races, who knows. Maybe ground too tacky. No idea, but that wasn’t his running. Annoying, but it happens sadly.

          Josh 17/11/16 3:43 PM Reply


  • Been following tips and some stats/angles of interest for about a month. Down a fortune. Then when I go onto the site I see boom another 5 points up. 10 point winner pints for all. But, down from following tips. Do u have to pay for the winners or what?? Sites a sham…. Geeeeeek cooooooooont

    Skree skree 17/11/16 12:11 AM Reply


    • Can’t just back all tips on the basis they all win.. take more time to read ALL the write ups. Then make a judgement call on what you back. I’m about 73 points up since end September on RTP alone.

      Geek? Based on his brilliant knowledge maybe. The other? Not a chance.

      Dan 17/11/16 8:00 AM Reply


    • Hi there.
      Firstly thanks for your colourful sign off, which rather ruined what was a fair enough question before that. And that says plenty about you – if you never read this free blog again I think that may suit us both. Pints for all? Will quite happily never share one with you.

      Part of this is probably my fault as I clearly need to work harder at explaining how to engage with the different free content…

      Tips… well there is a reason they are free to a point – and that is because they are not proven, albeit I have no intention of ever running a ‘tipping service’ – and in any case there is much to improve on before I would be good enough for such things. in the RESULTS tab above everything is clear and open. Nothing is hidden on here. My tips had a great start to the year, the wheels came off for May-Sept, and arguably only now I am scrabbling around to try and fix them back on.

      But, it is a long term game and I am clearly useless on the flat, and much to work on over jumps. BUT, since the start of OCTOBER ‘TIPS’ are only 7 points down. ‘Fortunes’ is all rather subjective.
      You can see the results, you can engage how you wish. Whether I posted them or not I would look at every 3m+ chase myself as those are the races I like to focus on/bet in. I am confident in the long term I will do fine- whether anyone else trusts me is up to them. Results are there, do as you please.

      They are 76 points up for the year, jumps tips around +100 points. Albeit it isn’t lost on me that if you started following at start of May you would be 50 or so points down, I have given back around 1k of my own money at my £20 per point.

      But you need a decent starting bank of points, and with anything new you start following, esp a new blog, you should treat with caution, paper trade, bet small stakes etc until you have confidence or not that the person you are following will offer you value/something of interest/profit in the long term.

      Your comment suggests you know **** all about betting and will forever be in the 95-98% of punters who lose long term. And sorry to be blunt, but the truth hurts sometimes.

      Stats/Angles of Interest…well they are not tips but in truth have been a bit shit, and I am still working an approach out to them. There have been a few winners in recent weeks and plenty of losers.

      Then we have the micro systems…
      Again they have had mixed results but in your time period have been doing ok.

      The September/October trainers made around +50 points. (many pints all round) And the other NTD micro angle I highlighted made another +22 points. Really shit those were. Just awful for backers.

      There are a couple of long standing systems that we have done well following – Venetia Williams, Tom George, James Fanshawe.

      Then there is the handicap hurdle/chase portfolio- these were new this year and it is a LIVE TEST. Again I could do better at explaining that I agree. I have tried to advise not to go diving in with wads of cash as I don’t know if they will work. The research is good and I have confidence long term but they need to prove themselves. If they work well we have next year, the year after that etc etc. Patience.

      The paid for Members Club..well that focuses on my Trainer Track Profiles Jumps Stats Pack- the raw numbers from that show that, after yesterday, in just over 7 weeks we are nearing +100 points profit, to 1 point level stakes.

      Now, i learnt my betting lesson early on thank god. I paid for a tipster who wasn’t very good in my first year at Uni and lost around £2650. I couldn’t really afford to lose that and was in two overdrafts for quite some time. From there I started to clue up, me more cautious, use small stakes/paper trade and build up over time. I went back to basics and having jumped in with £20 per point started betting £2s, then £5s, £10s, and now my average stake is £10-20 per point. That took me a few years.

      I get the impression you have yet to go on that journey and for your own sake I hope you do soon. There are no quick wins in this game.

      I try my best to provide quality free content that offers something interesting to read and that over time will lead to a profit/more enjoyment in the game.

      a ‘sham’ of any sort is usually the case of miss-selling. I am not sure what has been mis-sold here but if you point it out I will try and correct it.

      If you just want ‘winners’ I don’t know where you should head really- maybe just back the favourites as you will win 33% of all races, and have something to cheer. But, you will definitely lose a fortune over time.

      You could try Gary Priestley on twitter who is the godfather of free tipping I think – long term profit is incredible, and he mainly punts on long shots etc. With around a 10-12% win strike rate, 30% win/place he will have long losing runs, but he only cares for profit and ROI and his public 5 year record is there for all to see. I doubt you will have the mindset YET to follow his tips, but hopefully one day when he has won you a small fortune, you swing back here and say thanks.

      all the best, the Geeek Cunt,
      Josh

      Josh 17/11/16 8:14 AM Reply


      • Josh you’re just too nice. Tell him to puss off and phone one of those 0845 services instead. Cheeky bastard.

        Mick 17/11/16 9:19 AM Reply


        • Ah my mother wouldn’t approve if I was too rude haha. I am all for free speech and such comments will always be approved – i just pity some of the thought process behind it really.

          Josh 17/11/16 10:13 AM Reply


      • Hi Josh I’m a regular reader off the blog and have donated money in the past when your tips have been successful, haven’t donated much lately but I still have faith in you and I sincerely believe you are a genuine guy.You don’t have to justify yourselfers to arseholes like skree skree.Keep up the good work

        Paul 17/11/16 3:03 PM Reply


    • That is just pathetic, For the amount of work the guy puts into all this and can come back and keep producing content day in day out even when the chips are down shows true grit and a love for the game, They are just stats and angles for the most part, If all stats held true we would all be doing them every day blindly and raking in the cash…

      For what its worth there are some great posters here such as gearoid, nick, ali to name a few…

      Keep up the good work, the stats will hit a heater when they are due and that will silence people like that..

      les 17/11/16 11:48 AM Reply


      • Cheers Les, much appreciated. I will keep chipping away 🙂

        Josh 17/11/16 12:07 PM Reply


  • Josh with very valid and outstanding put down’s like that to an absolute imbecile, you are surely destined for 2 great careers as a horse racing systems guru and a lucrative career as a stand up comedian putting imbeciles in their place. Well Done

    ianjordan 17/11/16 8:57 AM Reply


    • Ha cheers. I do like to laugh!

      Josh 17/11/16 10:13 AM Reply


  • Very good reply Josh, but probably too well articulated, probably gone straight over his/her head.

    shek2nd 17/11/16 10:34 AM Reply


  • i backed both your tips in chepstow 2.30, but also had £17 win on ACHIMOTA got £9 @ 50 & £8 @ 43, on betfair nice return!

    malcolm pendrey 17/11/16 11:05 AM Reply


    • Oh Malcolm why didn’t you tell us before haha. That is a nice return, well done! Certainly not one of those all out ‘how did that win’ winners. But, always clearer after event, key is to pick odd one of those out before!
      What made you go for him?…

      Josh 17/11/16 11:09 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Surely that Poll should be who would you back at their current prices.

    Quiet day for me. Palm Grey in the 14:35 Market Rasen looks a solid bet against a field which largely hasn’t jumped a fence including the well backed jolly. I agree with Chris that trainer thinks highly of Alpine Secret in the 15:25 at Wincanton and this should be his trip (from Mark Howard’s book). I have also had a small bet on With Approval in the 19:00 at Chelmsford since he seems the only out and out front runner at a track which favours them. Has a good draw and trainer has solid track form.

    The one race I have ran a mile from (learning from my mistakes hopefully) is the 1:45 at Wincanton which looks extremely competitive for a class 3. I can think of at least 7 which I can see winning and anything but an e/w bet seems like suicide to me (although each to their own). Saying having just had a quick glance I may have 0.25pt e/w on Zulu Oscar given if Baker can get him running anywhere close to his form last year than 25s looks ridiculous for a horse which runs well fresh and likes the track.

    Nick Mazur 17/11/16 11:37 AM Reply


    • Hi Nick…it does say ‘who are we backing’ price is in the eye of the beholder 🙂 I didn’t ask who I thought most likely winner was… assumed people may be ‘backing’ based on some assessment of price etc. It is a bit of fun also!

      Good luck with the rest… 1.45 does look tricky. On Demand hit 7s which was too big for me- in form, fit, and could try and make all again. ratings rise may stop and may not be good enough, we shall see. Should be interesting race to watch.

      So, who do you like in Betfair at current prices?
      Josh

      Josh 17/11/16 11:49 AM Reply


      • Sorry you’re right my bad.

        Seeyouatmidnight looks like the stand out pick at the prices although given we are down to 7 probably won’t be having a bet myself.

        Nick Mazur 17/11/16 11:55 AM Reply


  • Going to give Rathnure Rebel another go at Clonmel in the first race. Great PTP form (beat 3 Musketeers 10 lengths) but then not seen out until April/May this year where he disappointed. I read last year that they thought the world of him, especially as I recall Nina Carberry and Noel Meade’s horses been in better form this year. Bryan Cooper rides the favourite for Gigginstown but at the prices (7/1) and happy to give Rathnure Rebel another go. 1st time hood might also be a plus.

    JV 17/11/16 11:49 AM Reply


    • Brilliant JV, couldn’t resist half point on at 7s after reading your comment/reasoning. Doesn’t get much better. Absolutely hacked up- and could call him the winner not long after the start 🙂 (well, could see he was travelling very well and was where you want all horses to be usually- and easy lead on the front end)

      Josh 17/11/16 12:41 PM Reply


      • Cheers Josh. Nice start to the afternoon. Will be interested in connections comments post race.

        JV 17/11/16 12:44 PM Reply


        • Yep I mean you never know what they have beaten in races like that but could ask for no more. Interesting what route they go next, be good to track his progress. Settled very well and clearly stays well. Should have a few handicaps in him, or may be a tad better than that.

          Josh 17/11/16 12:49 PM Reply


  • You know guys we really should be thankful for these mug punters because they give the bookies big enough profits so that they don’t mind paying us our ‘little’ profits!

    So I thank you big time Skree Skree . I really appreciate you playing your part in this industry so well.

    Geoff2 17/11/16 11:55 AM Reply


    • very wise words Geoff and something we were all probably thinking! Would be a rather hard (or harder) game if everyone was winning little profits all the time!

      Josh 17/11/16 11:58 AM Reply


      • I think all “tips” should be viewed as advice. As a great man once said ” If I give a dog a bone, I don’t want to know what it tastes like!!”.Think it was one of the Krays!
        When your winning your the best thing sliced bread, any other time your a loser! Keep going Josh, as you say, you can’t please them all!!

        Stewart 17/11/16 1:13 PM Reply


      • Surprised you haven’t had more idiot’s on here considering the time you’ve been around.Just shows how much respect you do have amongst the knowledgeable punters you have on this site.

        mozzer 17/11/16 2:26 PM Reply


  • totally agree with geoff, skreech skreech what a muppet!! keep up the good work josh.

    gary 17/11/16 12:49 PM Reply


  • Josh Ithink what you do and give out for free is incredible. Thank you!! Anyway I have been using figures from my own research/study and have the following selections for today(this is when they run like me and waddle in last!!) mr 1.30 Theatre Act, 2.35 Palm Grey, Wincanton1.15 Presenting Berkeley, 1.45 Bon Enfant, 2.15Jackthejourneyman 2.50Smoking Jacket. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!! May all go out and all come back safe, human and equine.

    matthew roberts 17/11/16 12:52 PM Reply


    • Cheers Matthew, yes very apt final comment. Ah it could be the ‘comment curse’ as they all tail in and are still running this time tomorrow! I have had to get used to that feeling on these pages but we keep chipping away and long term profit is the aim of the game, albeit always aspects that can be improved. But, there will always be something interesting to read and with any luck some free thought provoking/useful content.

      Without having looked in depth at some of those… Palm Grey does look interesting at an EW price- he ‘could’ try and make all here and put his chasing experience to good use. And to win like he did the last day up that hill shows he has stamina to burn. Ife he poaches a lead and gets into a rhythm he could run a cracker…may have to reinvest some of my winnings from JVs tip in these comments- so that is you done for, sorry! an extra stone on his back now 🙂

      Presenting B now a non runner I think. Bon Enfant seems well fancied and is in the could be anything category. I am taking you on with On Demand and some small tickles on the Nicholls pair. Hopefully one of us is cheering! The other two are in form so good luck. either the George horse or the Williams horse can win for me in the 2.50! GL.

      Josh 17/11/16 12:59 PM Reply


  • what a plonker that guy is.i have recently paid the £10 monthly fee and am more than happy with your service,so just forget the guy josh and keep up your good work. billy

    billy fieseler 17/11/16 3:30 PM Reply


  • Some people have no patience, I think this game is for stayers not sprinters lol great example Josh”s pam sly system, long losing streak over the summer months then boom Bonnets vinto goes in at 22s at market raisen today :p more than made up for the losses!!!!

    James b 17/11/16 4:17 PM Reply


    • oh please don’t james…but I am glad you kept faith. I have touched on that in tomorrow’s post…of course I quietly dropped it after her poor flat form, and ignored its much better record over jumps. Should/could have been posted up! But, you have shown benefit of absorbing the research and following it!

      Josh 17/11/16 4:19 PM Reply


  • I am sorry you received a comment from the Geek. I regularly support your blog and you are in that ‘trough’ just now. At one point last year you were making it look too easy! Please be assured that those of us on this site who know the game will follow you through thick and thin. The hours you put in and the analysis of why you place a bet is terrific. It might be worth privately trying out some analysis of trends before putting them up on the site or asking others to follow a trend for you.

    Well done! Mike

    Michael Evans 18/11/16 9:03 PM Reply


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