A bad day for my 3m+ chase tips and a bad day for the bottom end of the HorseRaceBase ratings. Back to the drawing board with my approach to those it seems! The 5 at the bottom found the top 3. And they did influence me to some extent albeit I am not sure if I would have found the winner if I ignored them…
But, it was a good day for TTP Jumps stats backers/Members… 11 bets / 3 winns – 20/1, 6,10/1… + 28 points profit on the day if you had 1 point on them all. Maybe the best day they have had yet…
Oh and it was nice to see Venetia have a chase winner. Hopefully a few more to come..
Quick reflection…The winner on Wednesday, 50/1>33/1… Had the form to win that for sure, (C4 chase record decent) question was about his well being and frame of mind. He folded tamely very early the last day, before any fitness qs may have come into it for me. But, in that context putting more emphasis on 1st time Blinkers may have been useful, and tongue tie on for first time in a while (second time) – They also changes tactics- which is harder to predict. But he seemed to love being booted out in front. I have said it before actually – but 1st time blinkers ‘can’ accompany a change of tactics. Something to ponder. Plenty of reasons why that wasn’t a total shock – just very hard to predict before the race, albeit a few clues I suppose!
It is always important to ask ‘who are the unexposed ones’ and ‘what ones are doing something different’ from last run. Headgear/tt was the way in with him I think. And you can take plenty of chances with horses at that price. But, my pin wasn’t anywhere near him – and that is an area to improve on. I think his HRB rating, that big P LTO and his Age put me off a bit to quick
Still it had a feel of it being a very open race. My two didn’t do too much sadly. Again. But, that’s how it goes. We move on.
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– live test
Reminder these angles (the ‘portfolio) are new this year and are untested/unproven in live play. They will hopefully work long term but bar the research I have no evidence of that and sometimes history is not repeated. They have found winners but are a few points down at the moment. You get to see it all, warts and all, as the season progresses.
1.15 Mount Russel UP/ Demographic WON 9/4
2.15 Winc- Istimraar- UP
These two are more proven…
V Williams Chase
2.50 Winc – Burtons Well – NR
Tom George Chase
2.50 Winc – Smoking Jacket – UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Not much jumping out so I will pull an interesting one out from my TTP stats, mentioned in comments below also…
3.10 Market R – Amiral Collonges –(PU- never travelled a yard,line through that run- not sure what was up but never looked happy- typical that the TTP stats found 2 winners and I would give you neither) was 9/2, now 10/3 general.. I won’t ‘reveal’ the trainer stats, albeit this trainer does well here in general and even more so in this class- it says something about the strength of the other ‘Market Rasen General Handicap’ trainers that this one isn’t on the list – but backing all of their handicappers here is no bad thing… 7/24,12 places ALL runners here last 5 years. Anyway this one is unexposed as a chaser and should be fit after his seasonal opener over hurdles LTO. He stays and there should be more to come at some point. He looked interesting enough at his price. The Smith horse is interesting and will try and make all. This trainer’s horse’s run at this track to win, so hopefully PM doesn’t hold him up too far off the front runner- as he will have to make up ground at some point and we know what can happen then- crunch.
That will do for today…
The Betfair Chase… who are we betting on? I have no strong views on this race and won’t be tipping in it I don’t think. I would be delighted if either of Coneygree or Cue Card won but I can see why you may want to take them on at the prices. If I do have an interest bet it may be on Seeyouatmidnight but I would be interested if you have any thoughts. You may think one of top two is a good price etc…
Betfair Chase - Who are we backing?
- Cue Card (11%, 27 Votes)
- Coneygree (25%, 64 Votes)
- Irish Cavalier (11%, 27 Votes)
- Seeyouatmidnight (35%, 89 Votes)
- Silviniaco Conti (7%, 17 Votes)
- 'one of the outsiders' (2%, 5 Votes)
- None. I will just watch and cheer... (9%, 22 Votes)
Total Voters: 251