TTP Jumps Notes: 15/11/16 (complete)

complete… Notes+ Quals+ my view for Southwell + Fakenham

Results

A link to updated results at end week 7 can be found HERE>>>>

Summary

WEEK 7 Total

General Race Types:  9/57,18 p =  +19

Micro Angles: 1/33,5p =  -22

Total including multiple qualifiers: 10/90,23p = -3

Total 1x  1 point only : 9/72,22p = 0

Bonus: 0/1,1p -1

 

Running Total End Week  7

General Race Types: 40/243,78p = +68.6

Micro Angles: 18/128,35 places = +4.5 points

Total including multiple qualifiers: 58/371,113 p = +73.1 points

Total 1x  1 point only : 53/320,99 p = +72.6 points

Bonus Stats: 1/13,3 p = -9

 

A poor week by the standards of previous weeks – albeit it should be some comfort for the stats (but not our pockets maybe) that if you add on the 12/1 Jonjo winner (micro system) I missed they would look ok. Hopefully you avoided a few losers to end the week in some sort of profit. They are still averaging 10 points per week if just having 1 point on all qualifiers (regardless of how many angles they qualify against) and if they can keep that up we should have an enjoyable season. There will be worse weeks than that, but hopefully we can build on those stats further this week.

 

Some horses…

SOUTHWELL

1.45

Native Display (all hncp + hncp H + micro Distance) UP 10/1

NOTE: trainer 0/6,1p last 14 days. Horse is 1/8,4 places over hurdles and reverts back to them after falling on chase debut LTO. Hood and tongue tie combo for the first time. Trainer is 2/4,3 places with handicap hurdlers returning after 60+ days at the course- so, she can ready them if desired. Jockey rarely rides for the yard, the last in 2015- 0/3,1p in total. Stamina looks ok albeit wins over 16f, but the odd 20f run suggests that won’t be a ready excuse. Arguably still unexposed in this sphere. Market can guide with this yard I think.

 

3.45

Searching For Gold (NHF) UP 9/4>7/4

NOTE: Trainer’s horses going ok, 5/26,11 places. Point winner, bar stats, not much else to go on. Market may well guide. Expensive purchase by the looks of things, 88k, and related to a bit of speed to suggest he could be sharp enough for a bumper i think.

 

FAKENHAM 

1.35

Shady Gift (all hncps) PU

NOTE: trainer 5/27,10 places last 14 days. Going ok. 3rd chase run so should be more to come at some point. Does bump into two in form, recent chase winners. But, arguably she is more in the ‘could be anything’ category than those two.

 

3.05

Prettylittlething (all hncp+hncp h+micro distance) WON 4/6

NOTE: Mulholland again as above. Horse has been in form over fences and reverts to hurdles here- only 4th hurdle run and first in a handicap I think, so unexposed in this sphere also.

 

BONUS

Novice Hncp Chase: 1.15 South – Beggars Cross UP

 

***

My View: Not too much to add to what is above. At the odds Native Display is the one I hope goes in, albeit given his profile the market may guide and any drift from 10s would be of some concern. Hard to say he can’t get involved given profile. As the market indicates the other three qualifiers from the main stats all appear to have some sort of chance. All three are too short for me personally , 5/2, 11/4,4/6. I doubt any will drift for a more backable price for me, 10/3 | 7/2+ .

That is all for today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

One Response

  1. The jockey booking on Native display is probably Tinkler has ridden and won on him during his time with Nicky Henderson,cant hurt his chance anyway

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