FREE DAILY POST: 15/11/16 (COMPLETE)

Some pretty mediocre racing again on Tuesday and it looks as though another quiet day is in store…

 

TIPS

none.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio– live test

chase

1.35 Fake – Shaky Gift (2nd run after break)

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

Not much else stands out really but a couple of ‘notes’…

I have been through the Lingfield AW stats and unless mistaken i think HIGH MARK in the 12.55 is the only qualifier. He is a bit short for my liking but the trainer does well here with that type.

1.45 Southwell looks an interesting handicap hurdle- well in the context of the poor racing today, at least there are 4 places to aim at (I am sure one will come out to make it 15!) Native Display (UP,no market move,ran no sort of race) 10/1 goes for my TTP stats and the market may be some indication as to his chance given his profile (fell heavily LTO,60+ days off,reverts to hurdles but unexposed enough in this sphere. Following this particular stat should pay over time with any luck)  BALLYCASH 9/1 goes again here (4th… hmmmm,not sure what to make of that, could be he just doesn’t find anything off bridle)- i mentioned him LTO on his handicap debut- he had caught my eye on his final maiden run. Well, he got no further than the first hurdle there much to my annoyance. Maybe going back LH will help. I can’t be sure this short run in will play to his strengths but NTD is 2/9,4 places in C4 handicap hurdles here in the last 5 years. One final go for me at that price also

 

That will be all for today.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

15 Comments

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  • To go back to the bumper on Sunday at Cheltenham was there any explanation for the withdrawal of Bags Groove. He was walking around the pre parade ring, looking a million dollars, then suddenly withdrawn, with no details for us on course.

    Clive 14/11/16 5:30 PM Reply


    • Harry Fry’s? Yep gave an interview on RUK- ground related- I think the owner phone him, or Fehily had a word- in essence they really like him and didn’t want to give him a hard race on that ground- said no point for a young horse and may do more harm than good. He will now be sent straight over hurdles and should be making an appearance in the next couple of weeks.

      Josh 14/11/16 5:35 PM Reply


  • Paddy Watch Day 3

    Well done Clavis on picking The Mighty don

    Anyway onto tomorrow for the man light years behind Heskin lol

    3.45 Plumpton Diamond Fort 1pt win 5/1 bet365
    I feel that this will drift as I feel Sarching For Gold might be heavily backed,so bet365 is best option for a price boost
    Running Total +4.75

    gearoid180468 14/11/16 5:55 PM Reply


    • hi all,
      linenhall also has a good mention from mark howards book as one to watch out for as well as searching for gold already been backed. Then the combo gerry highlighted difficult puzzle?

      danny3433 14/11/16 8:26 PM Reply


    • Its another one from the bumper I mentioned a few times which keeps throwing up winners (4 winners, 7 places from 12 runners) so hopefully will go well for you since form has been franked to certain extent.

      Nick Mazur 15/11/16 9:30 AM Reply


  • I agree re bad standard of racing. I am on Duke Cosimo, 1.55 LP, at 10/1. Happy with that. I will post tomorrow if anything comes up.

    martin colwell 14/11/16 9:02 PM Reply


  • Ballyhenry 11/4 for me tomorrow in 1:15 South.

    Chris R.

    broadsword 14/11/16 10:25 PM Reply


  • Southwell 3.45
    I have three prospect horses in this race
    By my breeding ratings, sire/dam, conditions and potential, in the prefered order.
    1 Glenlyon 50/1
    2 Searching for Gold 5/2
    3 Agamemmon 11/2

    Breeding history for Glenlyon

    The Sire
    Thewayyouare (USA)
    2016 STUD FEE: Private (Was 5K, now standing in Germany)

    11-y-o b horse (9.2f) AEI 0.45
    PEDIGREE: Kingmambo (USA) (9.8f) — Maryinsky (IRE) (Sadler’s Wells (USA) (11.2f))
    STANDING: Gestut Romerhof (GER)
    SIRE COMMENT: top-class 2yo in France, 1/2br to Peeping Fawn from exceptional family; sire of Toast Of New York
    TRAINER: A P O’Brien
    OWNER: S Mulryan
    BREEDER: Barnett Enterprises

    Sire: Kingmambo (USA) (9.9f) Dam: Maryinsky (IRE) Dam’s Sire: Sadler’s Wells (USA) (11.4f)

    THREE-GENERATION PEDIGREE
    Thewayyouare (USA) b h 2005
    SIRE> Kingmambo (USA) b 1990 9.9f Mr Prospector (USA) b 1970 8.7f Miesque (USA) b 1984
    DAME> Maryinsky (IRE) b 1999 Sadler’s Wells (USA) b 1981 11.4f Blush With Pride (USA) ch 1979

    ———————————————————

    The Dam (Believed unraced)

    Helena

    10-y-o (18Apr06 b m)
    Helissio (FR) (13.7f) — Self Esteem (Suave Dancer (USA) (10.8f))
    Breeder Mrs B V Chennells

    THREE-GENERATION PEDIGREE
    Helena b m 2006
    SIRE> Helissio (FR) 1993 13.7f Fairy King (USA) 1982 7.8f Helice (USA) 1988
    DAM> Self Esteem 1998 Suave Dancer (USA) 1988 10.8f Maidment 1991

    The Trainer
    PAUL WEBBER 5 Seasons, NHF, 10 Wins, 48 Place / 106 Races
    Win money is £20K, so he must normally move in more valuable bumpers.

    The Jockey
    Richie McLernon has 11/22 most recent rides for JJ O’Neill, so is probably OK.

    Clavis 15/11/16 1:10 AM Reply


  • Glenlyon has, imo, a soft ground (excellent) pedigree so in another fast going race I shall monitor and hope that next time the emphasis will be on stamina.
    Trainer and jockey have an established relationship.

    chrisrees 15/11/16 6:14 AM Reply


  • I cannot help but wonder why Moscow Menace (12.45 Southwell) has been sent the 230 miles one way trip to run in this race. It has no form, 2 Pulled Up last couple of runs and is very likely to be pulled up again but the travel distance, with a one runner for both the jockey and Trainer at the meeting intrigues me.

    It has only run at Kelso, Carlisle , Perth and Hexham in previous outings but now its off on a “jolly” down to middle England…….and also of interest, in several of its previous races…its been fancied and has been almost favourite a couple of times but they had been hunter Chases

    Fly Home Harry & Foot the Bill are my two for the race

    In other races, the internet “free tipsters” are pushing Rigoletto (1.25 Lingfield) and Iballisticvin (3.55 Lingfield) so I shall be careful about backing those two, I normally treat them as losers….easy to get it wrong I suppose but they don’t carry any of my pension !

    Norman 15/11/16 9:58 AM Reply


    • Hi Josh

      Happy with that set of results…..a good winner @ 8/1 with Fly Home Harry and then 2 favourites beaten. A couple of other winners has finished the day off very well

      Norman 15/11/16 4:05 PM Reply


      • Hi Norman, ah yes well done, top work… Swinbank hitting some form now I see, and continues his superb record with Moloney up- i follow them in NHF races but with that winner they are now 10/30,16 places in handicaps also-so, handicaps/NHF runners when teaming up certainly worth closer inspection.

        You know you will do well in this game when you are finding chase winners in C5s at Southwell! Well done.
        Josh

        Josh 15/11/16 4:49 PM Reply


  • I have had a look at today’s racing and have three to add to Duke Cosimo in the 1.55.

    1.25 LP, Seek the Fair Land, 13/2, seems solid each way to me?

    3.45 Sou, Midnight Chill, 4/1, must have a good chance of winning a race of this standard?

    3.55 LP, Iballiscticvin. I know that the Moore’s were surprised that this was beaten LTO. Not much of a price though.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 15/11/16 11:53 AM Reply


    • Good luck Martin… yep when flicking through Geegeez racecards/instant expert – Seek The Fair Land looked an ok stab, suited to all conditions/well handicapped. Suppose his age made me a bit cautious as he isn’t getting any younger, but he may have been well placed here. GL

      Josh 15/11/16 12:42 PM Reply


  • chrisrees
    I had allowed for rain, weather forecast says that there has been rain for fourteen hours, extent unknown.
    Seeking for Gold is an interesting horse, a relation of Holywell, Sausalto Bay and Johns Spirit but relations have only one hit in a bumper so my decision was that we can expect a potentially excellent jumper but possibly fractionally short of speed for a bumper.
    One for the note book!

    Clavis 15/11/16 2:56 PM Reply


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