FREE DAILY POST: 13/11/16 (COMPLETE)

Sometimes you just have to smile don’t you. That or cry into screwed up betting slips. The 1.50 was a horror race to watch. Thankfully all horses and riders were ok, that is the main thing. But poor old Cogry- that is the best he has jumped for a while and he was lobbing along behind the front two – I am convinced that bar an accident he would have been there at the finish. But that is academic. Racing Pulse was travelling fine also, albeit one circuit to go. Such a shame that happened as we will never really know. A very unlucky incident. The winner did do it well and sadly for my loose change Warrantor couldn’t get by him at a nice 25/1, and I only put a little on the nose. It will go right for Cogry one day.

We move on…

 

TIPS

1.00 Fontwell

Morney Wing – 1 point win – 12/1 | 11/1 (general) UP

Ballyheigue Bay – 1 point win – 9/1 | 8/1 (general) Fell

Finish The Story – 1/2 point win – 14/1 (general) UP

Cloudy Copper – 1/2 point win – 14/1 | 12/1 (general) UR*

*well I think I would rather forget this weekend of chasing. Fergal Mael Duin proved he stayed no problem. Aerial- well credit to Nicholls there to get a chaser back to win after 500+ days is some effort – i suppose if one trainer has that in his locker it is him- the horse was lightly raced and well handicapped – could see why some would take a chance at 12s, clearly I didn’t. The horse’s own record after lengthy breaks didn’t jump out at me either and had the odd stamina a/unknown. Morney Wing ran ok, but not good enough it seems. BB fell when leading but too far out to know and that may have happened as he was starting to tire albeit if he had stood up he may have played a role in the finish. Finish the Story was bang there over the final few jumps before seemingly running out of gas. CC UR early enough. Damn. 

 

Well as I write it appears someone is unloading some cash on Morney Wing, or  he has been tipped by someone of influence. In any case 12s is holding in 4 places, 11s in 6 or so places.

Why this motley crew… well all four made my shortlist, along with Russe Blanc- the latter may be more heart than head given what he did for us last year- in any case he may need the run, has a massive weight in a race like this where ground has gone soft, is on a career high mark and Kerry isn’t firing them in as yet – I also wonder if the Welsh National is the season’s target. He would be if he were mine and if that gets testing there, he could bowl along in front third an awful long way in that – they will want to get him in with a lowish weight.

Anyway. The other four were left on and given their prices I couldn’t decide who to leave out. In that situation, to save post race anguish, it is best having something on all of them I think.

Morney Wing… well one of only 6 in here who has had a run and could benefit from it. I have ‘long’ (well since last season) thought that these races could be the making of him and we wont be found wanting for stamina. He stays. And he is fit. That is two big boxes ticked in a race like this. Those Fakenham runs demonstrate that and it looks as though he enjoys soft. I fancied him the last day and he ran as if needed it. This race could have been the target and the trainer was so desperate to get a run in him on softer ground he sent him up to Carlisle (first runner there ever maybe) – at the time I thought that a sign he may be there to compete. As it turned out he ran well for a long way and kept plugging on for the run. Hopefully that was a pipe opener for this. In general he is consistent, is hardy enough yet still young, and the trainer is in form- 3/9,4 places the last 14 days. He also has a nice weight for a slog like this- they have had a bit of rain and it appears there is plenty of soft in the going. He usually races up there and as with all races like this if he can get into a rythm we could have some fun. He will keep plugging on up this hill. He handles Fakenham so is nippy enough for a track like this also, where they turn a fair bit. He just gallops also. It could be the perfect track for him! I thought at a double figure price he had enough going for him, and given I have been wanting him to run in such a race this season, I had to have a go.

BallyHeigueBay – It’s that run at Sandown on seasonal reapperance last year which just catches the eye. That was a better race than this and he only gave way late on, but kept going. That trip may have just stretched him and this is 2 furlongs shorter. It suggests that they can get him ready if needed and were he to repeat that run he won’t be far away here. 9s seemed fair in that context. He handles soft, the ground could be ideal with some good to soft also. And he is 2/4,3 places at the track so we know he handles that also. Hopefully he is fit here to do himself justice. If so he should be going close on what evidence we have. The form of the yard is a concern, they could be going better. I don’t think he has had a winner for an age actually- but odds of 9/1 allowed that chance. The odd one has gone ok and as we saw with Jonjo, they snap out of it eventually.

Cloudy Copper… talking of him… well the market may guide as to fitness here and it may be 1/2 point down the dran but given that a handful of his ran crackers yesterday I found him hard to ignore. If all of his yesterday had finsihed weakly like most of his had been doing, I would have probably left him. But, the run of Minella Rocco shows what he can do with a staying chaser after a lengthy break. He can get them fit if needed. His best run last year was his last and he is unexposed as a chaser- one of those. He sluices through the mud it seems and also looks an out and out stayer- one to keep an eye on moving forwards. If 100% here and ready to role he could play a role. 14s was big enough to roll the dice I thought, for 1/2 a point. If he drifts to 16s-20s we may know which way this bet is heading. But, he will win for us in a 3m+ muddy chase at some point!

Finish The Story – god he could be my main cliff horse- the cliff horse of a lifetime – well I haven’t backed him too many times but always thought he had a staying chase- over further than this – in him. I actually think 27f may be around his limit. Why him? Well he was a gallant second in this same race last year. He had a few runs before that but in truth this is the longest break he has had since June 2016 the poor bugger. He has been kep on the go for an age. He may have been over raced going into this last year. He does have an ok record after breaks of 60+ days and the trainer couldn’t be in better form- 4/14,6 places last 30 days, 2/7,4 places last 14 days. Jockey is 2/8,3 places in chases for the yard. He gets in here off the basement mark and for what is a fairly small horse that could be crucial- more so than being a couple of pounds out the handicap – 3/4 pounds at this end of weights isn’t why you lose a staying chase like this – jumping/stamina much more important for me. I am asking for a repeat of his run in this race last year. If we get it, if he is 100%, if he benefits from having had a rest for the first time in years, he could out-run 14s. If he isn’t fit, he won’t. I would like to think this has been the target given how he ran in it last year.

So, that is those four. Of course I may not have backed the winner but we should get a run for our money from at least one of them with any luck! It is only 3 points layed out afterall.

What of the rest…

Fergal Mael Duin – well 6s was short for me in this and for one who I have stamina doubts over. As simple as that really. He stays 2m5f well enough but I am unsure as to this trip. 0/5,2p 24f+. He can clout a fence and he now has a great record fresh (should be noted for next autumn) and then seems to lose his way a bit. Tizzard may sort out that problem though. If he stays he will give backers a run for money. Not a shock winner but at 6s I was happy to leave.

Cyclop – he is the other that is unexposed enough albeit has raced plenty for a 5 year old. I always think a race like this is tough for those aged 5/6 and all credit to them if they can pull it off. He may have needed his last run but the strength of his form suggests this is a tough ask. But he is fit and could come on for that last run and this is only his 10th chase run. Certainly no forlorn hope and he is the ‘clanger’ …I think I may have run out of change down the side of my sofa, but I will have one more look…

Jennys Surprise is interesting I suppose but I am unconvinced as to her stamina and she can be moody at times- but the jokey gets on well with her. She did win two weak enough miliatry races though and is now 0/5,0 places in handicaps. She had an ok record fresh also. Maybe she needed the run LTO or hit a stamina wall turning for home. Not a shock winner but 3 of the 4 selections are proven stayers to my eye. Again only her 9th chase start though. I won’t be trying to put you off of you like her chance.

I think the winner is coming from those 7. Which just leaves 9 who will likely leave me drowning in egg again. Buachaill Alainn can clearly go close also and I should mention him- now 0/4,0p 131+ , but that doesn’t bother me as much as the rain. He is just a better horse on proper good ground and I would like to think the soft in the going may do for him – 0/7,2p soft. Good to soft is ok so depends how much soft I suppose. IF he is travelling as well as he was the last day over the first few then I could be in trouble. If he handles the going no reason he wont run his race- but that is my reason for why I think he may not.

There are a few older horses in here and a few who could need the run/high up in the weight. Gary Moore’s horse I don’t think looks good enough to my eye and has stamina questions/inexperienced rider. That was a weak enough chase he couldn’t win the last day for me. One of the 3 that have had 500+ days off can beat me no problem, I was never destined to back them in a race like this. Lavelle’s has a big weight and the break-that was enough I think, and again a stamina unknown. Woodford County can hit a fence or five and usually needs the run, 0/3,0 places 121-365 days.

Pace wise… a bit unsure- Pete/Carli can lead but may lack sharpness/youth to do so. Fergal Mael can but could be ridden to get the trip. The first three tips can all be up there if they want, and one or two may try and lead here. All bases covered I think. No excuse. We may have a couple near the front, and a couple a bit further back.

Right, that is enough I think!

Good Luck.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

note…Aso ran a cracker for VW, suggesting her chasers are going to be plenty fit enough as usual. We need more evidence but with this rain hopefully we see more of her chasers…

V Williams Chasers

2.10 – Belami Des Pictons UP

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

(not yet firing…)

1.00 Font – Russe Blanc UP

3.50 Font – Mr Bachster NR

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– live test

Hurdle

1.35 Font – The Gipper (E Williams 60+ days) UP

2.30 Chelt- Sternrubin (improve for run/fresh) UP

3.05 Chelt – Baron Du Plessis UP

3.15 Font- On The Road WON 11/4 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

39 Comments

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  • Have thought for a while and discussed with fellow race followers about the break up of the George/Brennan Partnership.After George Feargal O’ Brien would have been his other major supply of winners.Having noticed the number of bumper winners partnered by Paddy so far this season 5/10 would suggest that Feargal is signifigantly improving the quality of his string,the youngsters being the stars of the future.O Brien has openly stated that Paddy has a big influence within the yard.Perhaps Paddy was looking to a rising star.The yard is absolutely flying,with quality stock coming in,with Paddy having a big say,backing the partnership blindly has produced 54pts at sp this season,has just the one ride for O brien tomorrow at Cheltenham.Poetic Rhythm in the Bumper 16/1(very hot looking race) might be worth a nibble

    gearoid180468 12/11/16 8:37 PM Reply


    • I’m tracking those two with the rules of NH flat, novice/hcap novice/hcap hurdles 20s or less. Could be a pipe dream given how the stats look for this, year but they’ve made a fair bit of profit in the years Brennan rode out for George. Fergal is one of my favorite trainers lol

      James b 13/11/16 4:22 AM Reply


  • Tentative vote in the Southern National goes to Ballyheigue Bay although Tom Cannon’s form is a concern. In the Greatwood I think North Hill Harvey looks a good e/w bet however The Wolf of Windelsham looks overpriced at 40/1 so have had bets on both.

    Nick Mazur 12/11/16 9:32 PM Reply


    • I’d not read the comment on North Hill Harvey before the race, but I backed Modus, what a great race and NHH showed a lot of guts to come back when Modus just got his nose in front. Thought I’d won, but fair play for a gutsy performance

      Dave Croft 13/11/16 3:08 PM Reply


      • Yep well done Nick- did that well – just outstayed Modus I think after the last – I think just that rather than out-battling him but maybe he did that also. Maybe fast run races on flat tracks may be more for Modus but would think he has a race like that in him and plenty of options, esp as spring comes back around. I wonder if will try and plot something. Also can looks a bit of a head case so one to treat with caution. Superb race. Skelton clearly superb target trainer and any hurdler he has kept of the track for an age, who is lightly race, and running for a valuable pot looks worth keeping onside.

        Josh 13/11/16 3:28 PM Reply


        • Thanks guys. I think that rail was crucial as well. It looking like it was a very strong Supreme this year.

          nickmazur 13/11/16 5:07 PM Reply


  • Another tough day on Sunday. I am on Song Light in the 2.30 at 50/1 each way, now 20’s best. No serious bets I think.

    martin colwell 12/11/16 10:57 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin
      I also backed Song Light e/w @ 33/1, and have Winter Escape for the win.
      Others today:
      Font 2:10 – Chef D’Ouvre 11/4
      Font 2:45 – Peak to Peak 4/1
      Chelt 3:05 – Behind Time 4/1
      Chelt 3:40 – Poetic Rhythm 10/1

      Chris R.

      broadsword 13/11/16 12:47 PM Reply


  • I like jennys surprise 1.00 font and sternrubin in the 2.30 Cheltenham think stern is an improving horse this is a very competive race though done them both ew
    antony

    antony church 13/11/16 8:44 AM Reply


  • Now that the season is in full swing,I have decided to do an official Paddy Brennan Watch.

    Trainers-O brien-Tizzard-McLintock-Edmunds-Ian Williamss-Oliver-Carson
    3+Winners 17%+ Strike Rate
    Value Criteria 5/1+ Ipt win 10/1+ 1/2pt ew
    Under 5/1 1/2pt win
    Under 11/4 no bet
    Trainer either 0/0 or at least I winner last 14 days

    I have left out Tom George for time being’will look at these on a per runner basis

    So with that 1st runner is Poetic Rhythm 1/2pt w 11/1(took 16/1 last night but there will be a hefty r4 on that after withdrawal of somekindofking)

    gearoid180468 13/11/16 10:16 AM Reply


  • Had a look at the O Brien website last night,has really got good operation now at Grange Hill and what better way to get top quality horses in,by having best jumps jockey in UK on your side

    gearoid180468 13/11/16 10:32 AM Reply


    • Yep agree. Definitely going places – having him around the place must help a bundle, esp with schooling etc. Their social media operation very good also and they just seem a friendly bunch. Would definitely send a horse there if I can ever afford it! A RTP syndicate one day maybe…

      Josh 13/11/16 10:35 AM Reply


  • Thats a great idea for future,maybe we could also organise a Xmas donation to the IJF through this site,I would be happy for one to make a donation towards the cause

    gearoid180468 13/11/16 10:42 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Sooooooo….. Glad you have selected the winner from your 4 selections

    Norman 13/11/16 10:46 AM Reply


    • Which one??? I bloody hope so but if my luck was anything like yesterday I may be in trouble! The market will guide no doubt for those needing the run…

      Josh 13/11/16 10:49 AM Reply


      • Ballyheigue Boy would be the most obvious from your selections…..In the race, Fergal Mael Duin is the most exposed on the HRB ratings but I have looked at those just outside the obvious and would include Woodford County, Mosspark & Pete the Feat as good outsiders but not, hopefully, totally without a chance….of the rest, some are “fallers” material and others have 7lb claimers who have not ridden a winner since May this year, unless at P2P meetings so experience might make a difference in a race with some of the shorter prices are ridden by these claimers

        Norman 13/11/16 11:08 AM Reply


        • yep hopefully BB is as fit as he was at Sandown last year- market not speaking great signs on that front but maybe due to money for others. We will know soon enough! I cant have anything in the 11+ bracket in this, or those that have had monster lay offs- and in ground like this (albeit not as testing as could be) carrying big weight tough, but far from impossible. Need a bit in hand or to be a graded animal really. Time will tell. If Mospark had a run/lower in weights may be of more interest but he is unexposed, and can never truly discount those types

          Josh 13/11/16 11:24 AM Reply


  • Also on Fergal his bumper horse in the last at Cheltenham yesterday finished 4th which was a big improvement on previous run’s.

    owen47 13/11/16 11:27 AM Reply


    • I backed Benechenko yesterday who was a very gutsy winner in the last at Uttoxeter under another front running master class from Paddy B.

      Paddy is operating @ 5/12 (+42) in NHF for particular trainers this year, and has shown a good strike rate and profit since at least 2013 (20/63 +173). Poetic Rhythm 3:40 Chelts is a qualifier today.

      Chris R.

      broadsword 13/11/16 12:39 PM Reply


      • Hi Chris
        Who are the 2 “particular trainers” you mentioned.
        I follow Mr P Mullins in Ireland so having Paddy to follow in uk would make me a nice double so narrowing the field would help, Thanks.

        Mike

        mickeydee 13/11/16 2:54 PM Reply


        • Hi Mike – And another winner 🙂
          F. O’Brien, Stuart Edmund, S.Kittow & G. Swinbank.

          Chris R.

          broadsword 13/11/16 3:49 PM Reply


          • Thanks Chris, Nice one at 8s, will follow with interest.

            Mike

            mickeydee 13/11/16 4:08 PM Reply


  • Carli KIng could be interesting for a punt. Adam Pogson has a decent strike-rate and big profit for the yard. This is his only ride on the card, as it is for Caroline Bailey.
    She knows what she is doing with chasers.

    Obviously, the horse has been off for ages but I feel he may be fit today. The yard have travelled a fair way, (based in Northanptonshire) and Carli KIng wears the cheekpieces, (in which his career-best performance two starts ago came in). Bearing in mind how long he has been off, I think we can ignore his last run in which he was pulled-up. Only 5lbs higher than in that 3m5f handicap chase at Warwick. Seems fairly ground-versatile and I don;t think the ground will be absolutely bottomless today. They have had rain but a nice day is expected there today. The horse has 4 wins from 15 chase starts which is very respectable.

    Obviously this is hugely speculative but at such a big price of 33/1 I think he could be worth it.

    Matt 13/11/16 11:36 AM Reply


    • I won’t put anyone off 33/1 -40/1 pokes- has the ability to figure I think albeit when a horse wins as far as he did at Warw i think you have to ask Qs about oppo. She is 2/45 with chasers returning 365 or more days off. I think it is a hell of an ask to win a race like this off such a break, but then you get a price for the punt,. All race conditions fine it is just that fitness question. any movement pre race could be interesting, even if only slight. GL.

      Josh 13/11/16 11:50 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh / All

    Excellent card at Cheltenham love this days racing and spent a few hours going through the card and hopefully a winner or three to boot….

    12.45 Moon Racer – 3.2

    Just favour this one over Ballyandy should be a great battle up the hill with both strong finishers jumping could be key.

    1.20 Le Prezien – 1.76

    No value here but can’t see past this Nicholls young chaser with a clear round

    1.55 Simonsig – 5.1

    On the figures Special Tiara would be the choice but I find this an open renewal with the 6yr old fav Fox Norton taking on his elders…9yr olds have a good record in this race as well as Nicky Henderson and its his 10yr old I have gone for enjoys the track goes well fresh and can see him travelling their with every chance.

    2.30 Stenrubin – 11.5

    The Greatwood a good race for 5yr olds and Hobbs has won this 4 times in the past Stenrubin comes here fit and well after winning 15 days ago and at the odds is the obvious choice for me.

    3.05 Altese De Guye – 9.2

    Martin Keighley does well with his handicap hurdlers here his local track and the selection has won over 3 miles here on gd / sft in fact both his wins have been on gd /sft….Last time out he was out the back over C/D in his first run for 5 months on GD ground and stayed on through beaten horses to finish 5th…the soft ground will make it more of a stamina test and can see him finishing strongly.

    3.40 Brahms De Clemont – 4.8

    Nicholls is 2 out of 2 in NH flat races here in last 2 years and the jockey has a 50% SR 6/3/3 .

    Good Luck with all your selections today

    Cheers
    Steve

    Steve Wiseman 13/11/16 12:21 PM Reply


    • Good luck Steve. Am with you on Sternrubin EW. I think he may get an easy lead again and hopefully that ensures top.4 at worse. Open to anything with more in hand. Modus has to be interesting. Ridden the last day as if his next race may be the plan!
      Also with you on ADG for Keighley. Was 12s 14s last night . She likes soft and stays further. Hopefully run well. Both TTP picks also.

      Josh 13/11/16 12:32 PM Reply


      • Thanks Josh, hopefully a nice odds winner from 1 of those two, competitive races but every chance of big runs happy with overall selections good luck too

        Steve Wiseman 13/11/16 1:21 PM Reply


  • Might have to change that Kerry Lee note,Magic Mustard just got up in the opener,second run of season,most likely like all trainers hers might need the run fto,be interesting how chasers do today

    gearoid180468 13/11/16 12:40 PM Reply


  • Very sad about Simonsig.

    Extremely emotional day for Nicky Henderson, what with the announcement of Sprinter’s retirement and his parade before the race. Just when Nicky seemed to have got a clear run with Simonsig too.

    Matt 13/11/16 2:22 PM Reply


    • Yes very sad just awful when that happens

      Steve Wiseman 13/11/16 2:32 PM Reply


    • Indeed. So sad. Heartbreaking for connections etc. A tough horrible game at times ruins the afternoon somewhat.

      Josh 13/11/16 2:32 PM Reply


  • Well a few of you deserve a pat on back for another Brennan/Obrian winner. Super. Nice end to the day!! (and maybe needed a little bit for me!)

    Josh 13/11/16 3:49 PM Reply


  • Yes well done guys with the “Paddy” angle great stuff

    Steve Wiseman 13/11/16 3:54 PM Reply


  • Paddy at his supreme best there,just wont pass him when e is in front,lifted the day for sure

    gearoid180468 13/11/16 3:55 PM Reply


    • Honeyball has just ended day well for the TTP stats also, another nice couple of winners at Fontwell today, 12/1, 15/2 or so. Now it has become a decent day! How quickly things can change.

      Josh 13/11/16 4:01 PM Reply


  • Thats the game we are in despair and elation

    gearoid180468 13/11/16 4:13 PM Reply


  • You may find this controversial and I was at Cheltenham and saw Paddy give the last winner a good ride , as opposed to PaulMaloney who should have won a minute but the reason he is not with Tom George any more is that Adrian Heskin is light years ahead of PB.

    Clive 13/11/16 5:41 PM Reply


    • Oh we love controversy Clive- nothing wrong with opposing views in these parts- jockey’s is always an intriguing one and often more personal preference led by heart than most things- unless getting all technical with metrics etc – plenty of us will have our favourites for different reasons.
      I can fully understand why Tom George went for a jockey who he could guarantee would be around and who has many bright years ahead of him – he is clearly a class act.
      I am not sure on what basis you say he is light years ahead and would be interested to hear why…
      Personally with Paddy I like how he gives a horse such confidence at a fence, is brave, and usually gets them jumping – so well often that it is the jumping that ensures he has a chance of competing. He also seems to do well in a finish. And I suppose me and other readers have an affection because he won us a few quid with the George chase angle in recent years and has done us a few favours this season already.
      The rise of the Fergal OBrien yard may also be an indication of his quality/influence etc.
      They are two very good jockeys and certainly never a reason to be put off when they are riding, and maybe more of a case of making sure you are on.

      Maloney- I think he knew he had a fragile one, mentally, which is why he may be on it- I know he tried to get a gap etc, but he clearly wanted to deliver him as late as possible- I think he got enough room in the end and the horse didn’t pick up really- he didn’t close on the leaders for me up the hill when he did get room- and looked far from straight forward. But that is my reading. I don’t think he would have won whoever he had on board for me. But, a game of opinion and long may it continue.

      Josh 14/11/16 9:23 AM Reply


      • The things I like about A Heskin are good hands, a proper horseman, who seems to have modelled his style on Ruby. Watch how still he sits over an obstacle. In addition he has a Dennis O’Regan type knack of having his horse in the right place during a race. I think he will prove to be a real star now he is over here

        Clive 16/11/16 4:15 PM Reply


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