SAT Big Race Trends/Stats

I may get time to find a few pointers for the BV Gold Cup but I won’t be tipping in the race and would rather focus on the 3m3f handicap chase… (any HRB users are welcome to post any pointers for the BV Gold Cup 🙂 )

 

Cheltenham Open Meeting

Grade 3 27.5f handicap chase

Stats for 10 years

10 winners, 132 runners, 33 places

 

TRENDS

Horse Age

  • 8/10 aged 5-8
    • 8/80, 24 places
    • Age 9+ : 2/52, 9 places

 

Days Since Run

  • 6-15 days: 0/21,2 places
  • 16-45 days: 7/47,17 places
  • 181-240 days: 3/45,12 places
  • 241+ : 0/17, 1 place

 

Horse Weight (exc claim)

  • 10-5 or less: 5/30, 8 places
  • 11-3+ : 4/51,10 places
  • 11-12: 1/11,3 places

 

Position In Market

  • 8/10 top 5 in market

 

Odds

  • 9/10 , 12/1 or shorter SP
  • 14/1 + : 1/55, 5 places

 

OTHER STATS

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

 

H (Horse) -Run (90 days)

  • 2+ : 0/20, 1 place

 

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 7/10 had 0-7 runs in all handicaps

 

H-Run (NH Race Type)

  • 8/10 had 12 or fewer chase runs

 

H- RUN (Hncp NH Race Type) 

  • 9/10 had 1-6 handicap chase runs
    • 9/66, 24 places
    • 7+ : 1/63, 9 places

H- Run (track)

  • 0: 0/12, 3 places

 

H- Run (Track-NH Code)

  • 0 chase runs at track: 0/21, 5 places

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

  • 2/3: 0/26,6 p (could just be an anomaly)

 

H-Win (NH Race Type).

  • 1: 4/19, 7 places…+29 SP
  • 2: 0/32, 8 places
  • 3: 1/36, 5 places
  • 4/5: 5/38, 11 places

 

H-Win (Hcap NH)

  • 3+ handicap chase wins: 0/22, 3 places

H-Win (Class)

  • 10/10 had 0 class wins (Grade 3 wins) 10/98,30 places
  • 1+ G3 wins: 0/34, 3 places

H-Win (Track/NH Code)

  • 0 : 4/83, 21 places
  • 1/2 chase wins at track: 6/49, 12 places

 

Miscellaneous 2

Best in Three Runs

  • 9/10 finished top 3 on at least one of last 3 starts
    • 9/103 runners, 29 places

 

Distance Move

  • 7/10 moving UP 3f-4f from last run
  • 3/10 moving down 2-5f from last run.
  • All other distance moves 0/69, 13 places- use as a guide.

 

Highest Class Win

  • 4/34 had won at G2 or G1 level previously.

 

H-Places (NH Race type)

  • 4/14,7 places had 1-2 places (inc wins) in chases only…+34 SP

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

 (LR) Hcap/Non

  • Ran in non handicap LTO: 0/22, 3 places

 (LR) Track

  • Chelt: 4/30, 9 places
  • Ayr: 2/15,6 places
  • Chep: 2/7,2 places
  • Sand: 1/7,2p
  • Aintree: 1/25, 4 p
  • Ascot: 0/10,1 p

Trainers (of interest)

  • P Nicholls: 2/10, 3 places
  • 1 win each: N Mulholland/Hobbs/Jonjo ONeill/V Dartnall/F O’Brien/C Tizzard/M Scudamore
  • NTD: 0/12, 5 places
  • D Pipe: 0/12,1 p
  • V Williams: 0/7,0 p
About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

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