FREE DAILY POST: 12/11/16 (COMPLETE)

No more content to follow today, enough to get stuck into I think! It appears Stephen used the AW TTP guide to back an 18/1 BFSP winner at Dundalk yesterday, so well done to him. Hopefully a few other AW TTP users found him also. That guide has had a good start and Perrett’s Maiden runner grabbed 3rd at 50s the other day, not beaten far.

A cracking day ahead and I have no strong views on the BV Gold Cup. I have backed As De Mee for a variety of reasons- I backed him at Aintree, quals on Nicholls micro angle in TTP, and seems fancied in plenty of places- que tailing off!

The 1.50 below looks rather open- I have convinced myself that if Cogry jumps fluently he goes close- but that is a big question with him. 8s was worth a stab.

The story of the day is Jonjo really – you get the feeling he may have a cracker of a day or it will be a day that confirms he is ice cold. My hunch says the latter but there has been so much talk about his form he will probably fire in the hat-trick!! If there are no problems with the yard a few of his should be winning/going close. Time will tell.

Good luck with all your bets today.

Josh

 

 

TIPS

1.50 Chelts

COGRY – 1 point win – 9/1 (BV/WH) 8/1 (general) BD

RACING PULSE – 1/2 point win – 16/1 (general) BD

I can hear Martin muttering whether I have taken my pills today given the letters in these horse’s form line but I couldn’t resist one more go at Cogry, and RP is just too tempting a price…

So, why these?

Well there are a few stats pointers of interest…horses that ran 16-240 days ago, ran 0-1 times last 90 days, had run over fences here, 0 wins in Grade 3 company (0/34,3p 10 years).

I think that leaves Le Reve (0/9,0p LH), Midnight Prayer (not backing one that age in this), Any Currency (same again,and Coleman would be on if expecting big run I think,13 now) and then the interesting ones… Upswing (jonjo still so cold) , Racing Pulse, Cogry, Warrantor (25s,I may have thrown around £2.5 just in case,albeit I can’t see it, but then he is on the shortlist and is 25s)

Fourth Act missed by days run (but poor record LH and big stamina question) and Minella Rocco just misses days run, but is Jonjo again.

Those Aged 5-8 do best and the ideal weight ranges are 10-5 or less on back or 11-3 or more (before jock claims) 1-2 wins/places in chases have good record, as do those 1-6 chase runs. In terms of winners against number of runners.

Anyway…

COGRY…I backed him the last day where he ‘fell’ – he didn’t really fall, he jumped the fence lovely, just came down a bit steep – may have been going too quick. They are expecting rain and some cut would help him, as it would RP. All i am asking for is a clear round as I believe he can win a race like this if he has one. Last year, on seasonal reappearance, he came a fast closing 4th in this race, coming from too far back, to lose by 2.5l. That was behind SS who tops the card. Now he has clearly improved but Cogry is a year older and could have also, but has it to prove. With the jockey claim he is receiving nearly 2 stone. If they run the same race again say, that is a big turn around. Of course if Cogry falls, that won’t matter much. Given his place on the shortlist, his unexposed profile, his run in this race last year and fact I backed him LTO, i just wanted to have ‘one more go’. 8s/9s seemed ok. And those top 5 in the market have the best record in this. If he doesn’t run a race here, i don’t know when else I can back him, esp in big field races.

Racing Pulse- well he is more of a punt but Curtis is in great form at the moment and has won a few nice chases so far this season. While you can write off large chunks of last year, this one still had a shocker. He made a howler here the last day, taking off too early and landing on top of the fence- jockey and horse were out of sync. He will like any rain and he is still in the ‘could be anything’ category. Given the yard form, 6/14,6 places last 14 days, and his place on the shortlist, and his price of 16s, I thought why not throw 1/2 a point at him. And that’s it really. he was highly tried at times last year which gives the impression they like him.

PACE- these two will try and be in the front 3rd here and I don’t think there is loads of pace, but it should be evenly run. The best horse on the day shouldn’t have an excuse, and as we saw with the Pipe winner, if you have a load in hand, you can go wide and come from the back,albeit it is tougher. No excuses, I just hope the jockeys let them get into a rhythm

Warrantor has much more to prove and the trainer has a poor record with handicap chasers 60+ days, 3/39 or so. He really looks up against it but if you have any change down the side of the sofa or a free bet or something, he may be worth some throw away money at that price.

JONJO…well this is a big day for him. Nothing is running well and he has some fancied ones today. I really can’t have any of his based on his form and the fact we haven’t seen any signs of life really. Minella Rocco looks the most interesting and he is a micro qualifier below. Maybe saver territory if a nice price. But he is so out of form. The winners will return one day though and it may be today. Upswing just looks out of sorts to me.

Others on my shortlist included SS- who won the race last year- but previous G3 winners have a poor recent record and he’d had a run last year, albeit goes well fresh. He has a lot of weight and some effort to win from this mark- he may well do it, not too much I can say to put you off if you like him I suppose. Doctor Harper is lightly raced for his age and was punted off the boards at the Festival last year. There is a slight stamina niggle but we saw what Pipe can do with these unexposed staying chasers. This one is a decent enough price, another G3 winner.

There are a lot of older horses in here who I am happy to leave. Shotgun Paddy is a bit too exposed now and is a one paced plodder it seems. Un Ace and Unioniste seem out of sorts.

It is a strange race. Plenty in here have something to prove it seems, be it their own form or their trainers’.

Nothing would totally surprise me in this race but these two will do. I think all the ‘unexposed’ ones have been mentioned above, or are trained by Jonjo.

 

JUMPS ANGLES

Handicap hurdle/chase portfolio  live test

Hurdle

3.00 Chelt- Irish Saint (clear top weight) UP

3.35 Chelt – For Good Measure UP / Red Infantry UP(improve for run/fresh)

2.15 Uttox – Diamond Rock UP (improve for run/fresh)

Chase

1.50 Chelt – Minella Rocco 3rd (hnc c debut)

2.25 Chelt – More Of That UP (hcnp c debut)

***

V Williams Chasers

2.25 Chelt – Aso 4th / Tenor Nivernais NR

Tom George Chasers

1.40 Uttox – Bun Doran UP

2.25 Chelt – Double Shuffle UP

K Lee Chasers (12/1< guide)

1.40 Gino Trail (angle 1+2) UP

Sat TJC- Hobbs/Johnson 

1.50 Chelt – Sausalito Sunrise UP

2.25 Chelt – Village Vic 2nd

 

***

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

13 Comments

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  • I do like Thomas crapper ew in the 2.25 33/1 will have to defiy some stats put out by ben Aitken in is email but the horse loves Cheltenham the going and distance on a winning mark the other thing against him apart from the stats the trainer as reported that hes been having breathing problems so hes trying a tongue tie if it works I cant see it out of the frame 33/1 looks big
    antony

    antony church 11/11/16 5:41 PM Reply


  • Been raining heavily in Ireland today,hopefully it wont dump all its load here and leave a little for your side of the pond,need it for Kerry,Venetia and Sue

    gearoid180468 11/11/16 8:05 PM Reply


  • I guess you missed taking your pills this evening due to you being out on the drink? You do like a P in a form line. Actually I dont mind Doctor Harper in that race and he last had a P!

    I had a quick scan over the card and will look in more detail later. I am on ante post Frodon at 16/1 in the 2.25 Chn. The other evening Paul Kealy mentioned Robin of Locksley for the 3.35 Chn. I think he is napping it in the Racing Post? I also like as an outsider in the 3.35 Nautical Nitwit and am on at 33/1.

    What do contributors think of Art Mauresque in the 2.25? Perhaps if Jonjo can have a winner it will be Taquin Du Seuil?

    Paul also mentioned Shotgun Paddy in the 1.50. Any thoughts?

    martin colwell 11/11/16 8:11 PM Reply


    • Hi Martin
      I have Art Mauresque in my tracker but he is 0/7 at Group level, 6/8 at class 2 and below. Also 6/9 on good or faster and 0/6 on G/S or worse. He is still only 6 so open to improvement, but I am prepared to wait for him outside group company.

      If there is significant rain I like the look of Stilleto 16/1.

      Chris R.

      broadsword 11/11/16 9:25 PM Reply


      • Good points re Art Mauresque, but I have the feeling he will be suited by Cheltenham. I dont think Stilletto has good Chetenham form but Paul Kealy thought it may go well.

        martin colwell 11/11/16 9:48 PM Reply


    • Ha. Well there may some truth to that. Albeit I didn’t have a drop before or during the analysis!! Looks a tricky puzzle that race . Hopefully Cogry can complete and jump well. If he does he won’t be far away. Other is a punt for sure.

      Josh 12/11/16 12:28 AM Reply


  • I’ve been out drinking tonight so most likely nothing from me tomorrow although Dr Nick Hardman, Neil Channing and Ben Aitken have tipped up As De Mee for the BV GC so it technically has an extra stone on its back but should it overcome that weight disadvantage and handle a big field chase (jocking aside that’s my main worry) hopefully we will have a lovely winner come 2:30 tomorrow.

    Nick Mazur 12/11/16 12:36 AM Reply


    • Yep ticks TTP mucous angle stats and some.others from meeting notes also. I also tipped/backed him at Aintree last season when didn’t run great. I’m going to have to have a go I think! GL

      Josh 12/11/16 12:52 AM Reply


      • That post illustrates why you should avoid posting drunk lol. Wasn’t going to win but I thought ADM was given an odd ride. Anyone else thinks so or am I just talking through my pocket. (Any options appreciated)

        Nick Mazur 12/11/16 4:38 PM Reply


        • Nick – completely agree with you about the ride on ADM never put into the race. Horse to the out of the day is Hobbs juvenile spoke to him just before the bumper and he is very hopeful he will take high rank

          finalflight 12/11/16 11:06 PM Reply


  • 1.50 Cheltenham….. a small stakes day as usual, for me, being a Saturday. Gone for Sausalito Sunrise (10/1) and Fourth Act (10/1)….swerved Minella Rocco & COGRY !!

    Do like Any Currency (33/1) & Unioniste (22/1) with an interest in Doctor Harper (10/1) so might see how the betting goes for these 3

    Norman 12/11/16 10:56 AM Reply


    • Good luck Norman – yep that race feels open, and as if something odd may happen – like an old boy going in- one of those where you can make a fairly strong case against backing any! But given the race type I just struggle to do that!
      I just hope I get a run for money from Cogry, I part expect him to crunch a fence or two and that be that – but the pain of that happening will be easier to take than if he puts it all together and grinds them into submission!

      Fourth Act is interesting – I was concerned by his record of 0/9,1 p LH including over fences a few times – has that ro prove. I also have stamina concerns albeit he appeared to be staying on the last day. Seems related to a lot of 2m-2m3f horses – anyway, he may well leave me drowning in egg, but at least you know why I’m not on!

      GL

      Josh 12/11/16 11:07 AM Reply


  • Disaster averted thanks to Paddy

    gearoid180468 12/11/16 5:27 PM Reply


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