TTP Jumps Notes: 11/11/2016 (COMPLETE)

 

NOTE: Cheltenham Open Meeting Trainer Pointers.. CLICK HERE>>>

 

CHELTENHAM 

 

12.55

Shuil Royale (hncp c) NR

NOTE: Fry in form, 5/16,6 places last 14 days. Horse looked a picture the last day at Aintree and won well enough. He couldn’t be in better form and gets his ground. I can’t see why he won’t give it a good go here, albeit is dropping in trip – but this stiff track should help and has won over distance in younger days. Realt Mor looks the main danger and he ‘may’ have more in hand.

Dunraven Storm (all hncp + micro TJC) UP

NOTE: Hobbs 5/29,13 places last 14 days. Not in such great form and he rarely runs over this distance. May have needed run LTO and has won over distance, albeit around here more of a test. Get impression better going RH also but not type where would be shocked if he ran an OK race and is a double fig price. A few questions to answer now though for me.

EastLake (micro class+distance) UP

NOTE: That man Jonjo again, colder than cold…0/28,4 places last 14 days, 4/72,12 places last 30 days – maybe this is the meeting he bounced back?? 3 PUs in last 6 runs may pose some questions now. On a career high mark, 6lb above last win. He does have the class ,and did stay on over 21f at Aintree two starts ago, to my surprise- I didn’t think he had the stamina before that. But, it suggests this trip ok now. Another with some questions but not impossible.

 

1.30

Bold Henry (all hncps + micro horse runs 90 days) UP

NOTE: Hobbs again,stats as above. Enigmatic character it seems but clearly has the ability – best form has been in a bog, but not enough evidence I don’t think to suggest he doesn’t handle soft. You will see from the Trainer pointer notes above that all of Hobbs runners are to be feared at this meeting.

Johnny Og (all hncps) UP

NOTE: Trainer in form, 2/8,4 places last 14 days. On a career high mark but in form and likes to lead, may not be able to dominate but not essential. He is now 0/3,0 places at the track. Only had one run at C2 before.

 

3.50

Bertie Boru (all hncps + micro horse runs 90 days) UP

NOTE: Hobbs again. There is enough in this horses past to suggest he would play a role, if running his best. Good runs were few and far between last year, and he does like trying to take the odd fence with him, as I learnt to my own cost at Sandown last season. Jockey 0/8,1p in short career to date.

 

Troika Steppes (all hncp + hncp c) 2nd 11/1>11/2

NOTE: Trainer in form, 6/16,8 places last 14 days. This one won for us, for these stats, at the track LTO at 25/1. He tried to take one fence with him but other than that it was a joy to watch. I can’t see why he is 12s here. I suppose this is a deeper race but he will be right up there again- a couple of others in here like to lead and can’t think will get an easy lead. He will just gallop- there are 4 places to aim at here and I will be backing him EW at that price- there may be the odd classier one in here but he should give it a good go. He is up 9lb but he is lightly raced and while a deeper race it is the same class. Silvergrove will be up there also from the off, and you would think is a1 may give TS something to think about.

 

 

NEWCASTLE

1.40

St Gregory (all hncps) WON 7/2 (drift from 9/4,2s,better price..)

NOTE: Richards 2/16,4 places last 14 days. Horse is in cracking form. Takes a ride in class here and is 0/8 in C4 now. Doesn’t look like she will be able to dominate from the front either but clearly couldn’t be in better shape.

 

Andhaar (hncp h) UP

Bracing (hncp h) UP (bit of a poor ride,too far back,given too much to do for me)

NOTE: both Alexander. 2/20,4 places last 14 days,a couple of his ran ok at Ayr a couple days back. Don’t think any major issues on trainer form front. Jockey booking I think would suggest Bracing is the more fancied, but reading into jockey bookings can be dangerous! Andhaar looks rather out of form and I am struggling to see why he would suddenly bounce back here- been racing in similar conditions and stuffed by St Gregory in one of those. Has lost to her twice, as well as his stablemate before.. Bracing… Unexposed enough – and ran ok on seasonal reappearance the last day- every possibility he comes on for that run. Is a C4 winner as well. Would have to say at the prices he looks most interesting out of these three. Interesting if market support for Andhaar.

 

2.50

Water Garden (hncp c) UP

NOTE: trainer 1/8, 1 place in last 14 days. This one returns after a lengthy break and trainer’s can need the run. 1/58,9p all handicappers 60+ days, 1/24,4 places handicap chasers. A quick look in my HRB account shows she is actually 0/57,8 places all runners 91+ days off. Market may guide.

 

 

3.25

Nando (NHF) UP

NOTE: Richards again. Seems fancied at 9/4 and his stats here very solid on NHF races, 4/8,6 places NHF races here. Seems to be some flat speed in his blood.

Well Joey (NHF) 3rd 9/1

NOTE: Trainer 0/6,2 places last 14 days. Early days for this one albeit may have a few more questions now than some- not the best on NHF debut, and PU in a point LTO.

 

***

My View.

Well, maybe I will start with those I quite fancy and have had my usual TTP bets on – Troika Steppes 11s last night, and Bracing 10s last night. Those are the only two that as I write I have put money on from those above….

St Gregory and Nando have clear chances for me, but at 2/1 each I will leave in terms of singles. I may do a ‘fun/muggy’ (delete as appropriate) £5 double. They may both win well but over time I think I will win more by leaving those at that end of market.

That leaves the rest, who I am on the fence about. Well Joey seems weak in the market but is unexposed and if hitting 8s+ could tempt me in with a just in case 1/2 albeit it may indicate he isn’t winning – i think their bumper horses are usually well backed.

Dunraven Storm is a right handed horse – he won at Cheltenham but that wasnt a strong race and having looked at it, he kind of won by default. He was also very poor the last day. EastLake was very poor LTO but does have the ability. Jonjo is cold and maybe he is being aimed at Aintree again.

1.30 – well I don’t think Johnny Og will be good enough, now 0/5,0p C3 10k+ to winner and is 0/7,1p on very undulating tracks. 0/3,0p around cheltenham. Looks tough. Bold Henry looks interesting enough and again at his best has the ability  – but those age 9+, 10+ have a very poor record in handicaps at this meeting, as per the notes above. Questions now.

Bertie Boru – well a 9yo again, i think he has a stamina Q, 0/15,3p 2m6f+, ran well over 29f at Sandown but a plodding on 5th. Not convinced. 0/4,0p 16+ runners and 0/8,1p very undulating tracks according to HRB profiler tool. His jumping also a big concern. But he is 20s.

Andhaar- he looks really up against it but is a big price- possible big clanger of the day but I cant see why he should finish ahead of the other two, unless fallers/race falls apart.

Water Garden – those fitness stats just too off putting and he isn’t a double figure- take a chance- price as yet. Happy to leave for now. I think Zaru may try and make all, and if he doesn’t bounce,(2nd run after long time off) may have a very good chance of doing so…

They are my thoughts, for what they are worth. There could be a clanger or two in that lot, or i have ‘saved myself’ 8-10 points. If one of decent price ones wins, and rest lose, it won’t be much damage done.

That is my subjective reading, do as you please. The ‘trust the stats’ approach does continue to work and sometimes maybe I should stop over thinking!

I should add that if I have a shocker in the ‘my view’ bit today I will have to rethink this section!

Good Luck

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

Post A Reply