TTP Jumps Notes: 10/11/16 (COMPLETE)

The market appeared to be a guide for the Alexander runners as most, if not all, took a wild walk in the market. Still, a couple of them ran promising races to my eye in context of their breaks and with any luck they will be qualifiers at Ayr in the future- suspect they may have wins in them this season – Marlee Massie and Buffalo Balltet being the two. Both could do something on their next 1-3 starts. We shall see.

NOTE: I will be trying to unearth some ‘meeting specific’ trainer pointers for The Open Meeting this weekend. No idea what I will find as yet but I am sure there will be something of note. I will get any notes to you early Thursday evening I suspect.

 

***

 

TOWCESTER 

12.45

Ultimate Dream (micro – distance + runs 90 days) UP

NOTE: Well Jonjo will have winners at some point again but I really don’t know what is going on with his yard – illness? Or he just has awful horses now. He has been struggling for a while and I don’t know if any change in the ground in coming weeks will turn things around. We thought that last season from Memory. Anyway, he is still ‘cold’ 0/23,5 places last 14 days, before his duds on Wednesday. Horse has had 195 days off. 0/7,2 places handicap hurdlers here 60+ days off. Jonjo can ready them of course. This one is unexposed, so always dangerous to write off, but his last three runs have been shocking – unsure if they have done anything with him during the break. Market may well guide given profile.

 

3.15

Jimmy The Jetplane (micro going IF GOOD) 2nd

NOTE: Bailey in form, 4/14,6 places last 14 days, as is the horse. Likes to lead, but so does the George horse – interesting to see if either can dominate.

3.45

Thomas Shelby (NHF) NR

NOTE:King 4/25,11 places last 14 days, not accounting for Wednesday just yet I don’t think, had a winner at Bangor and a few ran ok. So, no issues as to form of yard for me. Looks an open race with plenty in here who could have a say on paper- plenty of fit ones having second start also. Market may guide- given did nothing in two previous NHF races and seemed fancied enough in both of those. Always hard to second guess connections though. Can clearly go well given profile.

 

LUDLOW 

3.05

Moss On The Mill (all hncp+hncp c + Micro class) WON 10/1>8/1 

NOTE: George in form, 7/16,10 places last 14 days. Interesting maybe that both Heskin, and to lesser extent Brennan, are both at Towcester. Only jockeys 3rd ride for trainer, but he is competent enough in handicap chases for his ability not to be a great concern.

 

Still Believing (micro TJC) UP

NOTE: Williams 2/11,3 places last 14 days, going OK enough.

 

3.35

Coeur De Fou (all hncps) UP

NOTE: George stats as above. This one ran an OK race over fences LTO. First hurdle run I think, certainly over here.

Houston Dynimo (all hncps) UP

NOTE: Pipe’s are very in and out, some running well, many not. 2/27,6 places last 14 days. In recent months I have thought this one is going to hack up making all one day. He drops into C5 here and ‘could’ get an easy lead. He got into a pace battle the last day which did for him. Clearly not getting any younger I suspect he may try and give this a good go from the front. There was the odd run of promise over the summer, albeit clearly open to attack from anything less exposed. He is very very well handicapped on some old hurdle form  in 2014. This could be last chance saloon race for me, I will be having a EW nibble at that price.

 

Presenting Berkley (all hncps) 2nd 40/1

NOTE: Vaughan 4/28,8 places last 14 days. This one makes handicap debut and moves up in trip – so possible reasons why an improvement in form could be forthcoming. Or he could just not be very good. Strange race in which to pull off a handicap plot job maybe. He is 8/55,11 places with handicap debutants last 2 years, so does have such winners.

***

My View:

Well, you may have seen that I have tipped Still Believing on the free post, widely available at 5s last night. This one would be my most confident pick from those above.

The market, at this stage, seems to be indicating that Ultimate Dream and Thomas Shelby will have other days to shine. But, given the profiles of many here it is impossible to rule any out completely and plenty are a nice price. Presenting Berkley at 33s seems very weak as well, and that may be a sign. But Vaughan is 2/4,3 places at the track with handicap debutants and he makes hncp debut and steps up in trip. So not impossible albeit I may want to see market signs. I am far from enthusiastic and if I do back any of those three it will be a ‘just in case’ bet, rather than my full TTP 1 point.

3.15 – Jimmy The Jet Plane has a solid chance and not much to say there to put you off if you like his price. It looks at open little contest where you could give some sort of chance to all 5 to my eye.

Bar Still believing the two left in the 3.35 look of some interest and I have had a full TTP point (£10 for me, whereas 1 point on my ‘tips’ is £20) on each. It looks an open enough race and at double figure prices I didn’t see a reason to leave them really.

So, the possibility of a couple of clangers there- those I am least confident on do have unexposed profiles, so anything is possible!

Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

5 Comments

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  • Hi Josh
    Paypal sorted
    Thanks
    Bill

    shek2nd 09/11/16 6:23 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Joined on 5 nov
    when you record your points profit is it on all the selections above or is it your notes.
    Not a good 5 days if punting on all named horses,what do you advice.
    Cheers
    Colin

    colin leafe 10/11/16 8:43 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin,
      Thanks for comment, a bit to unpick there…

      -so, all results are recorded to 1 point win on everything,at a generally available best price in the morning usually- as a benchmark really and if using all the selections as a standard ‘system’ – trusting the stats over time and just backing the lot, without bothering look look at the horse and bringing your own subjective judgement in. The stats after 6 weeks, should give confidence, that long term they will do ok- the points profit is way above what i expected at this stage really.

      -All stats, if having 1 point once on each horse, regardless of how many angles they qualify against (hncp angle + micro angles) are operating at around 17% sr- which given no odds caps/further thought is decent enough – but that will mean a bumpy ride at times, and systematically, losing runs of 25-40 every now and then. That will happen. So, if taking a systematic approach you need a proper bank, 100 points + i would say, and to take a long term view. IF taking that approach, start of with small stakes and build up.

      – The daily notes ARE NOT a tipping service- I like to specialise in 3m+ handicap chases and even when I think I have an ok grip on them I can have horror runs/bad form. I wont pretend to be an expert on all handicap hurdle/chases races, at all classes and distances etc. I try and offer some objective stats/pointers in the notes section, that may help with your own analysis if you chose to look at them. + the odd bit of opinion. In part that is why there is the trial/month by month option- I am quiet aware this approach may not be for everyone, however they dip in and out.

      -Personally – i have a mixed approach which varies from leaving a horse completely- and I try and point that out but I can get it wrong and don’t want to negatively influence readers too much – through to backing 1/2 point (£5) for TTP purposes, through to a full 1 point £10, if I see no reason not to have a dart.

      -it is meant to be an approach to suit different styles- from just using the qualifiers as a system, through to using them as a starting point/shortlist for your days punting, before looking in a bit more depth. We may all approach it differently and will have different profit levels etc.

      You have to find an approach which you are comfortable with. You may miss winners, you may miss plenty of losers. Ultimately it may not be for you. It is very much a case of feeling your way in, and using a staking amount/bank to start whereby you dont think about the losses.

      You could decide to have X on everything, and then look through using your own approach and have a bit more on the odd other horse etc.

      Taking a 4-5 day snapshot at any point with this approach could look very good, or rather horrendous. It is about the long term and 6 weeks in has been a decent chunk of time/selections so far, and so far so good- as a foundation. Certainly, ‘if in doubt just go with the stats’ hasn’t been a bad approach.

      I hope that may help, or it may not. There is no right or wrong answer, or approach. Hopefully you find a way that makes you enjoy the spot and helps you turn a profit. I will write a post on how to approach it I think, with some ideas as above, as aware that is probably missing.

      Josh

      Josh 10/11/16 9:58 AM Reply


  • Thomas Shelby looks sure to run a blinder

    ianjordan 10/11/16 8:44 AM Reply


    • Haha very good. Very good show, and plenty of it filmed up here in Liverpool. Market suggests he may not but hopefully he does, looks a fiendishly competitive race.

      Josh 10/11/16 10:00 AM Reply


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