FREE DAILY POST: 10/11/16 (COMPLETE)

NOTE: Members… I will be spending a chunk of Thursday trying to find any useful Trainer Pointers for the November ‘Open’ Meeting at Cheltenham. Hopefully I can find a few of interest so help steer the way. I will share a few freebie snippets also, content allowing.

 

TIPS

 

3.05 Ludlow 

STILL BELIEVING – 1.5 points win 5/1 (general) 9/2 (general) UP

BY THE BOARDWALK – 0.5 points win 15/2 (bet365/BV) 7/1 (general) 2nd

*well that wasn’t as fun to watch as Valadom. By The Boardwalk crept into it nicely and looked ready to pounce but annoyingly the George runner- who else- was plenty fit enough and jumped well, and kept galloping. He clearly had a bit in hand, while By The Boardwalk may be at the top of his ceiling. Not sure what happened to Still Believing – never really travelled which was strange given how she had gone the last twice on decent ground – slightly weak before hand. The winner was nibbled at 12s>8s which was some indication as to fitness, not a shock winner by any means – unexposed ones never are- more fool me for taking on a George chaser at Ludlow, when he is in this vein of form. Damn. 

*when Stil Believing romps to victory here price will be declared at 4/1,as that is generally available as I write at 8.36am. Hopefully some of you got bigger. Suspect this one may go off at around 3,albeit 5/2 wouldn’t shock me.

Why These?

Still Believing…well to those of you who have been doing just that there have been a couple of rewards this month and I am rather bullish that this may be another one- with usual caveats of luck in running/not trying to take a fence with her.

This horse is unexposed enough over fences,this her 14th run and she is a CD winner. Indeed she is 3/10,7 places all handicaps run here. The ground is fine- albeit should be noted for future she is 2/6,3 places in heavy, which she seemingly handles a lot better than many opponents she has faced in the past. But ‘winter’ Good, as this is described as by the clerk, posed no problems for me. Proven stamina, proven class, and must go RH, 3/11,7 places this was round all handicaps, 0/18,3 places going LH. She has hacked up here in a C3 hurdle off 115 so this mark isn’t a problem either. Williams is in decent enough form also- 2/12,4 places last 2 weeks  – they seem to be going ok. The jockey knows her well and she is indeed a TTP stats pick, based on trainer/jockey combo record in handicaps here.

Two more pieces of the jigsaw… the last two runs are what really caught the eye. This one stays 26f/27f really well so the last two distances would have been shorter than ideal, and the races were not run to suit- small fields, lone front runners who dictated and then kicked/stayed on. But, she has ran both times as if in decent form, staying on stoutly after the last and closing to the line. That is a good sign. She is consistent and I expect a bold run here. 5/1>4/1 seemed a decent enough price in the context of this race for me.

The pace is the final piece…these two will actually be further back but I can’t make a case for those who will be up the front and there is the possibility of a battle- Jonjo’s was best the last day making all and they should try and repeat that. Basford Ben also likes to get on with it, and there are a couple more pace pushers. Miss Serious tried to make all the last day also. So, it should be run at a decent clip and stalking may be no bad thing here…

By The Boardwalk.. I will be more brief here but he is decent enough form and 15/2, 8/1 looked a tad big. I am going to say that the ground was too firm the last day at Exeter. He travelled well into the race 4 out or so but when asked he didn’t pick up. There was some firm about that day. IF that is the reason, he is too big here. It could be that the handicapper has him where he wants him, and he doesn’t like a battle- needs delivering late. But, this race isn’t as deep as that Exeter one for me and he still ran ok. This could fall apart a bit in the latter stages and he may have a say. Bailey continues in flying form and this race will tell us more about where he is at. I wanted to pay a little to find out.

Of the rest…

Well I was struggling to make a case for anything else at the prices and those two above may finish 1-2- probably not but you can but hope! Jonjo’s horse was 5/2 last evening which was way too short. He is arguably getting to a more backable price but he is a thinker and I was far from impressed with his jumping LTO. I think these fences may find him out. He also takes a step up in class and that last race was poor quality. Jonjo is also having a nightmare time at the moment. At 5/2 he was there to be taken on, and I couldn’t back him with stolen money I don’t think- happy for him to prove me wrong, which many a race horse will do over the coming months.

Big Casino seemed short at 4s for a 10yo with ‘summer’ form. Again that race the last day was not the strongest and he is now 0/4,0 places going RH over fences. 0/6,1 p 24f +, 0/10,3 places 8+ runners over fences. He has a few niggles at that price for me. He is in form though and could play a role. He may fade late on though, albeit this isn’t the stiffest of 3 miles around here. Miss Serious – she is unexposed and could win this – but she has fallen the last twice and on that basis I can’t have her. She also has class to prove and could be another with ‘summer form’ She is small and these fences take some jumping here it seems- a couple of chase races already this season there has been absolute carnage. Hopefully she gets round but I wouldn’t be confident. If she does, she may have a say.

Basford Ben- the old boy is rather admirable and that last run suggests he has races in him again this year. I hope it isn’t this one. He is best on really stiff tracks and getting the oppo on the stretch. He will try and lead and bowl along- but he is a bit one paced to my eye, a true galloper- at certain tracks that is enough as he gallops them into the ground, but I am not sure he will be able to get away around here. I also think he may be a tad high in the weights and the trainer could be in better form. Something to outpace him up the home stretch for me. I may have that wrong. He may come down the weights in the coming weeks at strike at Carlisle after Christmas at some point.

Moss on The Mill has it to prove as a chaser and has been hurdling an awful long time. Of some note I think that Heskin, and to a lesser extent, Brennan, are at Towcester. I would want to see signs of life in the market but it is that man George. Unexposed over fences, 0/3,0 places- but needs to show more. Also a fitness questions. Was happy to leave. Not a fall of your seat winner though if putting it all together, but I would want to see something over fences first. Seems to be some money for the old boy On The Bridge but he is 2/2 around here and that may count for something. He does look woefully out of form though to my eye, having done very little on his last 6 runs. Also 0/20,1 place when going off 0ver 6/1 – so if he is really punted I may take note. Letbeso- not sure if he is good enough and in any case the wheels seem to have come off the last twice. Was happy to leave.

 

So, that is the lot. Both selections will stalk those in front and hopefully they can get in a rhythm and pounce as all those in front falter up the home straight. We shall see. I am very comfortable not having money on anything else in here and they can prove me wrong. If these two run up to their best, I think it is between them on my reading of the race.

 

***

 

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JUMPS ANGLES 

NONE.

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

Given no jumps angles, some qualifiers from my AW stats pack that may be worth a second glance.. (remember you can get a free sample of this guide, and maybe buy the full version, HERE>>>)

Southwell

1.55 – Krystallite

2.55 – Anna Barkova

3.25 – Deep Resolve

 

Chelmsford

4.55 – Love Power

5.25 – High Waves

6.55 – Pivotman (booking myself back into the opticians, that one not a 5f-5.5f race either!)

7.25 – Space War (ignore that,he doesn’t qualify!- You know what will happen now…)

 

***

That will be all for today. Good luck with any bets.

Josh

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

20 Comments

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  • Hi j …welcome return for today…question for you is at what price is /are tips not value???? I still look on a winner is all is needed …still looking for VALUE…

    Dan 09/11/16 9:03 PM Reply


    • Hi Dan, well, that is the golden question really and I don’t have the right answer- indeed there isn’t one and many will disagree over the concept of value.
      Mindset is important and while my language can get confusing at times I no longer thing in terms of finding the ‘winner’ – very much horses that I think could get competitive and look/feel overpriced given the opposition and their profile.

      I do not get too mathematical with it all and I don’t create my own tissues- I am a recreational punter and that is the next level up for me. I don’t need to do that to turn a profit over time that I am happy with,betting my £10s and £20s. Discipline is more important at this level really. If I were wanting to go pro and looking to make 30-50k say, I think making your own tissue of odds etc is probably essential.

      Anyway, I have no set rules. I am generally uncomfortable betting/tipping anything under 7/2 / 4/1. That doesn’t mean a horse isn’t ‘value’- a 1/2 shot can be value if you think it should be 1/10 etc.BUT, you have to be right an awful lot <7/2 for me in order to turn a profit long term. And I look at profit/roi rather than winners and win strike rate. My records suggest I will only ever operate in the 16%- 20% win strike rate range, certainly with the tips. But the average price of my winners is 8/1- so you bank can only go one way in that context. I don't need to be right more than that, albeit I try to and my judgement in the 7/2-5/1 range needs to improve.

      So, there are no right or wrongs really. But certainly the mindset of 'is this horse a bigger price than it should be' is key to develop, and mine is on 'feel' /growing experience, rather than a strict mathematical approach.
      With any race I will ignore the market and look through the runners in my own way, making notes as to their profile, race conditions etc. I will then look at the market, see if anything jumps out, if the fav is worth taking on, and importantly go to the biggest price horse and think through them again, seeing if I can make a case or if their price means I should look over any perceived negatives.
      It is an art rather than a science, and one I get wrong plenty!
      Josh

      Josh 10/11/16 10:12 AM Reply


  • Three interesting things for tomorrow.

    Firstly unusually for me I have had an antepost bet for the Bet Victor Gold Cup given I think we might end up with less than 16 after the 48 hour declaration stage. After looking at the trends I think you need a horse between 136 and 150 which knocks out almost half the field. The one I like is As De Mee who I think looks ridiculously well handicapped based on his past form. He has spent most of last season running in Group 1s and some of the better Novice chases. Whilst he has yet to win left handed I dont think he needs to go right handed. He was 2 lengths behind More of That over course and distance yet that horse is now rated 15lbs higher (not to mention 9/2 and fav for this race) and he beat Blacklion and Native River at Chepstow last season. He clearly didnt like the blinkers and the fact that they put the hood back on this season is a big plus. Didnt beat much but pretty much won at ease on re-appearance. Last but certainly not least he has had a wind op in the summer (as mentioned by Nicholls in Mark Howard’s book).

    I dont do much in the way of AW but I thought it was very interesting that Guest has one runner at Southwell (New Road Side 13:55) and one runner at Chelmford (Outlaw Torn 19:55) with both being the only ride Beasley has at each track. Both are in good form and have comined to finish 224511 in their past six runners. They have solid enough records together at both tracks. Each horse has a reasonable chance although Beasley is going to have to ride out of his skin on Outlaw Torn to get to the front although the race doesnt seem to have a great deal of obvious pace. Certainly worth small singles.

    Finally following the same line of form as Pampanini who finished 2nd earlier this week I have had a small e/w bet on Dan Skelton’s Or De Vassy who finished 3rd in the race. Overall it has produced 3 winners and 2 placers from 9 runners. Skelton is 1/4, 2 places with bumper runners at the track and also has a great record with horses having their 1st or 2nd run for him. Expect him to go close.

    nickmazur 09/11/16 10:37 PM Reply


    • Another 2nd although gives the bumper extra form boost particularly with the 7th winning his 2nd hurdles race at Ludlow today beating a horse you would expect to be rated in the 130s based on his flat form and that was with a penalty. (Overall stats since the race are 12 runners, 4 winners and 7 places)

      Nick Mazur 10/11/16 4:09 PM Reply


  • Nickmazur
    Reference Towcester 3.45
    The danger is the filly Wicket Chicken, weight concession, won at 24F on Yielding in Ireland and has a Listed entry at Cheltenham for the 12th November.
    This is the Sire-

    Milan (GB)

    2016 STUD FEE: EUR 7,000

    18-y-o b horse (16.0f) AEI 0.92
    PEDIGREE: Sadler´s Wells (USA) (11.2f) — Kithanga (IRE) (Darshaan (GB) (11.6f))
    STANDING: Grange Stud (IRE) (IRE)
    SIRE COMMENT: top-class middle-distance colt, won St Leger, from good family, dual-purpose sire, progeny stay well
    TRAINER: A P O’Brien
    OWNER: Michael Tabor
    BREEDER: Fittocks Stud

    Edmund Brooke 10/11/16 12:48 AM Reply


  • Is the stat for M Easterby/N Evans no longer restricted to 5f to 5.5 f

    danegold 10/11/16 10:18 AM Reply


    • Ah yes, you are quite correct! think I had only had one coffee at that point, apols. And thanks
      Josh

      Josh 10/11/16 10:23 AM Reply


      • Morning Josh, first post for me on here. Great work, tho stick to 3m Chases, haha. Only a quick comment about By The Boardwalk, id read on Kim Baileys website that he blamed the very slow pace early for getting outpaced for not at least getting a place at Exeter lto. And have him down as wanting 3m+ g/gs & R/h as ideal conditions.
        On another topic, do you or your readers have trouble getting bets on and having accounts closed? If so, how have you gone about getting round it?

        Jambo 10/11/16 11:28 AM Reply


        • Hi Jambo.. haha, yep I think they may be very wise words!
          Ah yep that may make some sense- he did walk the course before racing so assume he thought it was safe, albeit today wont be anywhere near as firm I dont think (watered 10mm,+25mm rain last night, and still Good!) Should allow him to pick up more- yep and those in front didn’t really come back to him, those in front today could fall into a whole- not fit/non stayers/slow plodders. We shall see. He should run another solid race.

          Account closures… I did a while back but not much recently – BoyleSports/Stan James restricted me early, the latter thought I was Arbing – Coral have restricted me, along with SkyBet,Betfred, Betfair Sports Book.
          Bet365/PP yet to get me, and BV removed BOG – so, given my record I may not be the best person to advise!!

          In general, a couple of things- a lot of these bookies have infected our computers with Iesnare, or something like that – spying software on your online activity essentially – when you use odds comparison sites, what you visit etc. Probably best google that – think Matt over at Geegeez did a piece on it, and how you can remove it.
          But in general- I wouldn’t always take the best price available, that can get their attention – may mean losing the odd point every now and then but taking 1/2 point below what may be available elsewhere sometimes can be no bad thing. As can not withdrawing large chunks in one go, I think that may raise eyebrows on your account. Also spreading bets around.
          I will have to speak to Gary Priestley, twitters top tipster really,points profit wise, he wrote a guest post on here- from recall I dont think he has that many restrictions which given how much he bets (think £25-50) his standard 1 point, and amount he wins, I find odd.
          So, there must be ways to limit the damage. There are plenty of new bookies around now also to dip toe into.
          I am sure some other readers have a better response than that.
          I only bet 10s-30s on any given race most of the time, and as yet can still get on in enough places. Last resort will bet betfair exchange and taking a price close to what is available with BOG bookies- if you look through my tips results, not many win that go off a bigger price than advised from memory. And I comfortably beat BFSP with advised prices- so worse case hopefully there is always an option!

          Hopefully in time we will copy Australia and all bookies will have to accept £20-£25 as a minimum bet, or a minimum liability on race etc. But, that could be some way off. I believe the gambling/competition authority has started a formal investigation into account closures etc.

          Josh

          Josh 10/11/16 12:32 PM Reply


      • Sorry to be pedantic but Pivotman is an 8f race, are there other criteria

        Eddie 10/11/16 12:46 PM Reply


        • Well my mind was clearly on other things when looking through those this morning, had better cross that one off also!

          Josh 10/11/16 12:56 PM Reply


  • I dont want to guarantee to look at these for every meeting but would it be helpful if I post them when I do

    Eddie 10/11/16 1:08 PM Reply


    • Yep I have no intention of posting them regularly – which is probably no bad thing haha- don’t mind the odd post, but not daily on the free posts 🙂 – can do in Members posts if you are a member.

      Josh 10/11/16 1:12 PM Reply


  • Exactly what I was thinking. I am a member but dont autofill anything away from home pc

    Eddie 10/11/16 1:37 PM Reply


  • I use Click & Clean after visiting EVERY bookmakers site using Firefox.
    It does close most open logged in pages but I consider it worthwhile.
    Also spread your bets.

    http://www.hotcleaner.com/clickclean_chrome.html

    Edmund Brooke 10/11/16 2:03 PM Reply


  • That one will go down as an annoying one. I spent ages looking at Moss on the Mill given George’s record in chases at Ludlow is better than just about anywhere else (around 36% win and 66% place in the last 1/2/5 years-which ever way you slice it) but like you I was baffled by the jockey booking considering he has ridden for his just twice before.

    Nick Mazur 10/11/16 3:18 PM Reply


    • Yep, one of those!! was a TTP system bet, along with Stil Believing and when he was nibbled at I had a little on but nowhere near as much as those two – he was weak in market up until around 15 mins before. One of those where you kick yourself- suppose the only real unexposed one in the field, George,in form, Ludlow, Chases. Always obvious after the event. Damn. Still struggling to explain run of Still Believing as race run to suit. Did make couple scrappy errors, maybe that had an impact.

      Appears Jockey is based at George’s as I listen to RUK in background- does plenty of work at home. He is more than capable, solid enough stats.

      Josh 10/11/16 3:29 PM Reply


      • Yeah the other fact (only thing I disagreed with your write up on him) was he appeared to run well fresh as each of his last 2 seasons he ran ok 1st time but regressed the 2nd time but like you say obvious after the event.

        Good to know about the jockey. Will make sure I don’t treat him as a negative going forward.

        Nick Mazur 10/11/16 3:41 PM Reply


        • yep true, and we know George can ready them – appears an obvious 10/1 poke after they have done that – appears he had back issues which is why so poor over fences before, and then ran over hurdles, that all sorted now. We move on.

          Josh 10/11/16 3:47 PM Reply


  • Had a last minute look at the Southwell AWT stats before going to the bookies and Dalgleish’s horse Showdaisy in the 13 ;55 jumped off the page. Didn’t take the odds but was satisfied with the returned 13/2. Cheers.

    bricat 10/11/16 4:50 PM Reply


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